Mangalam Cement Weak volumes marred performance

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1 CMP* (Rs) 206 Market Cap. (Rs bn) 5.5 Free Float (%) 72 Shares O/S (mn) 26.7 Mangalam Cement Weak volumes marred performance Mangalam Cement (MCL) delivered a weak performance in 2Q but was marginally above our expectation as operating profit (adjusted for DMF provisioning of Rs45mn and wage board revision of Rs38mn) came in at Rs84mn v/s expectation of Rs56mn. Weak sales volume (down ~14% yoy) and ~3% yoy decline in average realizations marred the operating performance. Given the current market feedback from our dealers check, we do not expect any encouraging scenario in demand in 3QFY16E. Nonetheless, we believe that performance from 4QFY16E is likely to improve due to: 1) likely improvement in pricing environment, 2) healthy volume growth along with pickup in utilizations from new units, 3) sales tax subsidy, 4) softened fuel costs owing to improving efficiency of plants, and 5) change in production mix (MCL has guided to take PPC production to ~70% from ~60%). Thus, we maintain our recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs250. Dismal sales volume led to revenue de-growth MCL reported a top-line de-growth of ~16% yoy to ~Rs2bn, which is in-line with our estimate. A significant decline in sales volume (down by ~14% yoy to 0.55mnT) led to decline in revenue. MCL sold ~30,000 tonnes of cement from the leased unit in Ghaziabad during the quarter. MCL has produced 0.27mnT clinker during 2Q v/s 0.48mnT and 0.49mnT production recorded during 2QFY15 and 1QFY16, respectively. Operating performance remained subdued Operating performance remained subdued as operating profit (adj for DMF provisioning of Rs45mn and wage board revision of Rs38mn) came in at Rs84mn (down ~61% yoy). Dismal volume and low realizations impacted operating performance. Notably, low utilization also led to increase in operating cost/tonne (up ~2% yoy and ~3% qoq). Adjusted EBITDA/tonne came in at Rs161 as against Rs337 reported in 2QFY15. Outlook and Valuation We expect MCL s performance to improve from 4QFY16E on the back of expected pickup in demand and pricing scenario. However, we cut our EBITDA estimates by ~54%/~12% for FY16E/FY17E, respectively mainly to factor subdued volume, one time provisioning and dismal realizations. At the CMP, the stock is trading at EV/tonne of US$44/US$43 per tonne for FY16E/FY17E, which appears attractive. We reiterate our recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs250 (implying EV/tonne at US$49 for FY17E).. Share price (%) 1 mth 3 mth 12 mth Absolute performance (7.8) (14.0) (31.4) Relative to Nifty (2.9 (9.3) (31.5) Shareholding Pattern (%) Jun 15 Sept 15 Promoter FII DII Others Year Stock Price Performance Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Note: * CMP as on November 09, 2015 Key Financials (Rs mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Sales 6,973 9,218 9,185 11,529 EBITDA ,638 Net Profit (236) 643 EPS (Rs) (8.8) 24.1 DPS (Rs) PE (x) (23.3) 8.6 P/B (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) (4.6) 12.2 Divi. Yield (%) Source: Company, RSec Research Research Analyst : Binod Modi Contact : (022)

2 Risk to the view ff Government s failure to revive infrastructure activity Exhibit 1: Quarterly Performance (Rs mn) 2QFY16 2QFY15 % yoy 1QFY16 % qoq 1HFY16 1HFY15 % yoy Net Sales 1,999 2,378 (15.9) 2,114 (5.4) 4,113 4,659 (11.7) Cost of Materials Consumed (10.7) 416 (19.1) Purchase of stock in trade (34.8) 141 (13.8) (22.3) Change in WIP 291 (32) (75) 216 (37) % sales Employee Benefit Expenses % sales Power & Fuel (45.0) 629 (43.0) 987 1,201 (17.8) % sales Packing, Distribution & Selling Exps (15.8) 664 (14.8) 1,229 1,282 (4.1) % sales Other Expenditures (13.5) 211 (27.8) % sales Total Expenditures 1,994 2,164 (7.8) 2,155 (7.4) 4,149 4, Operating costs/tonne (Rs) 3,467 3, , ,484 3, EBITDA (97.7) (41) (36) 569 (106.3) EBITDA/tone (Rs) (52.2) (64) (351.4) (30) 456 (106.6) EBITDA margins (1.9) (0.9) 12.2 Depreciation Finance Costs Other Income (69.0) 26.6 (64.3) (40.6) Exceptional Items PBT (182) 53 (440.2) (207) (12.5) (389) 266 (246.4) Tax Expenses (26) 7 (479.3) (19) 38.0 (45) 90 % PBT PAT (155) 46 (188) (344) 176 Net margins (7.8) 2.0 (8.9) (8.4) 3.8 EPS (Rs) (0.3) 1.7 (0.3) 6.59 Adjusted PAT (99) 46.5 (188.4) (288) 199 Source: Company, RSec Research Exhibit 2: Revised v/s Old estimates FY16E FY17E Old Revised % change Old Revised % change Volume (mnt) (6.1) (4.1) Sales (Rs mn) 10,129 9,185 (9.3) 12,375 11,529 (6.8) Realizations (Rs/tonne) 3,762 3,629 (3.5) 4,059 3,942 (2.9) EBIDTA (Rs mn) 1, (53.5) 1,869 1,638 (12.4) Margins (%) (491 bps) (90 bps) PAT (Rs mn) 191 (236) (223.4) (22.2) EPS (Rs) 7.2 (8.8) (223.4) (22.2) Source: RSec Research 2

3 Profit & Loss Statement Y/E March (Rs mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Net Sales 6,973 9,218 9,185 11,529 % yoy growth (1.2) 32.2 (0.4) 25.5 Total Cost 6,416 8,314 8,710 9,891 Raw Materials Consumed 1,438 1,253 2,204 2,421 Employee Cost Power & Fuel 1,715 2,584 2,492 2,830 Selling and Distribution Exp. 2,092 2,563 2,792 3,118 Other Expenditures EBITDA ,638 EBITDA Margin (%) Depreciation and Amortization Interest Other Income Exceptional Items 34 PBT (295) 803 Tax (57) 11 (59) 161 % Tax (23.7) Excep. Items Net Profit (236) 643 YoY Growth (%) (61.7) (39.5) (231.8) (372.1) Net Profit Margin (%) (2.6) 5.6 3

4 Balance Sheet Y/E March (Rs mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Share Capital Reserves & Surplus 4,803 4,909 4,723 5,302 Total Shareholder's funds 5,070 5,176 4,990 5,569 Secured Loans 3,680 4,032 4,232 4,132 Unsecured Loans Total Debt 3,680 4,032 4,232 4,132 Other Liabilities ,007 1,295 TOTAL LIABILITIES 9,547 10,011 10,229 10,996 Gross Block 8,716 11,479 11,879 12,679 Less: Accumulated Depreciation 3,566 3,912 4,298 4,740 Net Block 5,150 7,567 7,581 7,939 CWIP 2, Investments Inventories 1,159 1,585 1,409 1,706 Sundry Debtors Cash & Bank Loans & Advances 1,143 1,351 1,510 1,579 Total Current Assets 2,993 3,511 3,585 4,084 Current Liabilities 1,093 1,544 1,718 1,951 Provisions Net Current Assets 1,727 1,809 1,701 1,944 Net Deferred Tax (610) (614) (614) (614) Other Assets Total Assets 9,547 10,011 10,229 10,996 4

5 Cash Flow Statement Y/E March (Rs mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Net Profit before Tax & Extraordinary Items (295) 803 Depreciation Interest (Net) Dividend Received (46) (28) - - Others (18) (6) 51 - Operating profit before WC Changes ,684 Working Capital Changes 193 (429) 160 (162) Direct Tax (102) (161) Extraordinary Items - (34) - - Net Cash from Operating Activities ,361 Purchase of Fixed Assets (2,306) (527) (792) (900) Purchase of Investments - (400) - - Others Cash from Investment Activities (2,255) (502) (792) (900) Proceeds from LT Borrowings 1, (100) Dividend Paid (186) (94) - (64) Interest Paid (82) (377) (434) (439) Others Cash from Financing Activities 1,164 (158) 50 (380) Net Inc/(Dec) in Cash and Cash Equivalent (461) (177) Opening Cash Closing Cash

6 Key Ratios Y/E March FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (23.3) 8.6 P/CEPS P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales EV/tonne (US$) Dividend Payout (%) Dividend Yield (%) Per Share Data (Rs) EPS (Basic) (8.8) 24.1 EPS (Diluted) (8.8) 24.1 CEPS DPS Book Value EBITDA/tone (Rs) Returns (%) RoCE RoE (4.6) 12.2 Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross block) Inventory (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days)

7 General Disclaimers: This Research Report (hereinafter called 'Report') is prepared and distributed by Reliance Securities Limited (RSL) for information purposes only. The recommendations, if any, made herein are expression of views and/or opinions and should not be deemed or construed to be neither advice for the purposes of purchase or sale of any security, derivatives or any other security through RSL nor any solicitation or offering of any investment / trading opportunity on behalf of the issuer(s) of the respective security(ies) referred to herein. These information / opinions / views are not meant to serve as a professional investment guide for the readers. No action is solicited based upon the information provided herein. Recipients of this Report should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations. Readers are advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed trading/ investment decision before executing any trades or making any investments. This Report has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed by RSL to be reliable. RSL or its directors, employees, affiliates or representatives do not assume any responsibility for, or warrant the accuracy, completeness, adequacy and reliability of such information / opinions / views. While due care has been taken to ensure that the disclosures and opinions given are fair and reasonable, none of the directors, employees, affiliates or representatives of RSL shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages, including lost profits arising in any way whatsoever from the information / opinions / views contained in this Report. Risks: Trading and investment in securities are subject market risks. There are no assurances or guarantees that the objectives of any of trading / investment in securities will be achieved. The trades/ investments referred to herein may not be suitable to all categories of traders/investors. The names of securities mentioned herein do not in any manner indicate their prospects or returns. The value securities referred to herein may be adversely affected by the performance or otherwise of the respective issuer companies, changes in the market conditions, micro and macro factors and forces affecting capital markets like interest rate risk, credit risk, liquidity risk and reinvestment risk. Derivative products may also be affected by various risks including but not limited to counter party risk, market risk, valuation risk, liquidity risk and other risks. Besides the price of the underlying asset, volatility, tenor and interest rates may affect the pricing of derivatives. 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Disclosure of Interest: The research analysts who have prepared this Report hereby certify that the views /opinions expressed in this Report are their personal independent views/opinions in respect of the securities and their respective issuers. Neither RSL nor the research analysts had any known direct /indirect conflict of interest including any long/short position(s) in any specific security on which views/opinions have been made, during the preparation of this Report. Copyright: The copyright in this Report belongs exclusively to RSL. This Report shall only be read by those persons to whom it has been delivered. No reprinting, reproduction, copying, distribution of this Report in any manner whatsoever, in whole or in part, is permitted without the prior express written consent of RSL. Important These disclaimers, risks and other disclosures must be read in conjunction with the information / opinions / views of which they form part of. ISO 9001:2008: Reliance Securities Limited holds a certificate issued by BSI Management System India Pvt. Ltd to the effect that it operates a Quality Management System that complies with the requirements of ISO 9001:2008 for providing equity & equity derivative trading services through online trading system. Investment in securities market is subject to market risk. Please read the risk disclosure document before investing. Reliance Securities is a distributor for MF, IPO, Bonds, NCDs and Corporate FDs Registered Office: Reliance Securities Limited, 11th Floor, R-Tech IT Park, Western Express Highway, Goregaon (East), Mumbai Tel: , CIN: U65990MH2005PLC (NSE - INB / INF / INE ; BSE - INB / INF / INE ; AMFI ARN No.29889). 7

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