QATAR NATIONAL BANK (QE: QNBK)

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1 WEALTH MANAGEMENT Dominant market position in Qatar complemented by a growing regional presence in high growth, underpenetrated markets expected to drive future earnings growth for QNB. STOCK OF THE MONTH July 2013 QATAR COMPANY PROFILE Established in 1964, Qatar National Bank (QNB) is Qatar s largest commercial bank in terms of market share of loans, assets & deposits. Its business model offers banking services across retail, corporate, investment banking, asset management and private banking segments. QNB is also one of the largest banks in the MENA region, while having a presence in 25 countries, including the UK, France, Switzerland, Singapore, UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq and Egypt. BANKING SECTOR Recommendation BUY CMP (QAR) (3-July-13) : TARGET PRICE (QAR) : EXPECTED RETURN (%): 10.6% QNB derives a major share of its revenues, approximately 68%, from Corporate Banking, while Consumer Banking contributes only 5%, Asset and Wealth Management contributes around 6% and International Banking generates around 2 of total revenues. Amongst regional banks, QNB is also one of the highest rated by leading credit rating agencies including Standard & Poor s (A+), Moody s (Aa3), Fitch (A+), and Capital Intelligence (AA-). Market share by loans & advances - Q STOCK DATA MCAP (QAR million) 113, WEEK HIGH (QAR) Qatar Islamic Bank 7% Qatar Intl Islamic Bank 3% Ahli Bank 3% Masraf Al Rayan 1 52 WEEK LOW (QAR) Doha Bank 7% Commercial Bank of Qatar 1 Others 9% ANALYST Gaurav Ramaiya Asst. Vice President - Research Tel: (+968) Ext. 348 Qatar National Bank 5 Source: Company Disclosure

2 The Qatar government holds a 5 stake in QNB through Qatar Investment Authority and hence has a significant interest and business relationship with the bank, which is reflected in the significant concentration of public sector lending and deposits on its balance sheet. This relationship has further strengthened with the recent appointment of QNB s CEO as Qatar s Finance Minister following the handover of power to Qatar s new Emir and subsequent cabinet reshuffling. SHAREHOLDING PATTERN Name % Government of Qatar 50.0 Others 50.0 Source: Company Disclosure Loan Book - Sector Allocation (2012) Personal 8% Others Customer Deposits - Sector Allocation (2012) Real Estate 1 Contracting Services 9% Government 66% Corporate 28% Government 6 Commercial 2% Industry 2% Individuals 1 Source: Company Disclosure OPERATING PERFORMANCE QNB has been a leader amongst Qatari banks in terms of loan book and deposit growth, with its loan book expected to grow at a 3-year CAGR of 36% during FY 2010 to FY 2013 (E), compared to an average of 18% for peers such as Commercial Bank of Qatar, Doha Bank and Masraf Al Rayan. Deposit growth over the same period is 27% versus peer average of 18% and individually only outpaced by Masraf Al Rayan s 3 growth rate. Trend of Loans and Deposits QAR'mn Total Loans LHS (QAR'mn) Total Deposits LHS (QAR'mn) Loans/Deposits Ratio RHS 400, , , % 250, % 97.55% , , ,000 50, FINCORP WEALTH MANAGEMENT Page 2

3 Margin and Efficiency Analysis Trend of ROE and ROA Net Interest Income Cost to Income Ratio Net Interest Margin Return on Equity (%) Return on Assets (%) % 17.48% 17.19% % 2.95% 2.89% 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 QAR' MN 3 25% 2 15% 1 5% % 18.7% 19.2% 2.8% 2.9% 2.5% 2.3% Source: Company Disclosure, FINCORP Research Net interest income for QNB has steadily grown from QAR 5.7 billion in FY 2010 to QAR 11.0 billion estimated for FY 2013, even as net interest margin has trended slightly lower over the period. This is primarily attributed to the strong loan book growth over the period, which has more than offset the impact of lower margins. Cost to Income ratio continues to remain well below the peer average of 3 despite its expected uptick to 19. in FY 2013 following the acquisition of National Societe General Bank (NSGB) in Egypt, which has a higher cost structure. In terms of shareholder returns, QNB continues to generate above average Return on Equity (ROE), delivering 3- year ROE of 22.5% compared to peer average of only 16.5%. At the same time, 3-year Return on Assets (ROA) has been 2.7%, which is in line with the peer average of 2.8%. Trend of NPLs and NPL Ratio Trend of NPL Coverage Ratio 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Non-Performing Loans (QAR'mn) NPL/Gross Loans (RHS) 1.3% 1.4% % % 118% 117% 116% 115% 114% 113% 112% 119% 118% 117% 115% Source: Company Disclosure, FINCORP Research Asset quality for QNB remains in line with peer averages with NPL ratio of 1.3% at the end of FY 2012 compared to peer average of 1.3% and NPL coverage ratio of 115% slightly above peers average of 109%. QNB s asset quality continues to be viewed as superior to peers given the concentration of its lending to the Qatar government, which boasts solid finances. FINCORP WEALTH MANAGEMENT Page 3

4 Qatar National Bank - Peer Comparison Company Net Interest Cost / Income ROE ROA Loan Book Deposits NPL NPL Margin (LFY) Ratio (LFY) (3-Yr Avg) (3-Yr Avg) (3-Yr CAGR) (3-Yr CAGR) Ratio Coverage Qatar National Bank (QNB) 2.9% 17.2% 22.5% 2.7% % 117% Masraf Al Rayan (MARK) % 3.3% 25.8% 30.9% % Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQ) 2.8% 35.2% 13.7% 2.7% 19.5% 15.9% % Doha Bank (DHBK) 3.4% 35.8% 18.2% 2.4% 8.4% 7.2% 2.8% 87% Peer Average 3.4% % 2.8% 17.9% % 109% Source: Company Disclosure, Bloomberg, FINCORP Research EARNINGS OUTLOOK AND VALUATION With a dominant position in Qatar, QNB has set its sights on international expansion to drive future growth of the bank and aims to have 45% of its balance sheet outside Qatar by In line with its international expansion plans, QNB successfully completed the acquisition of a controlling stake in Egypt's NSGB amounting to 97.12% during Q1, 2013, opening the way to launch QNB Al Ahli in Egypt. We expect the acquisition to be around 8.9% earnings accretive for QNB and provide an incremental growth of 6.4% to QNB s loan book at the end of FY 2013, 9.3% to the customer deposits base and 7.4% to total assets. Post the acquisition, QNB s total branch network will expand from 400 to 560 branches and provide it access to the growing and underpenetrated Egyptian banking sector where NSGB is amongst the top five banks based on market share of loans, deposits and total assets with a strong retail franchise. For FY 2013, we estimate QNB to report a 15% YoY growth in net profit to QAR 9.56 billion with total banking revenues expected to grow 22% YoY to QAR billion. Loan growth during FY 2013 is expected to be 33% YoY driven by continued strong credit off take in Qatar as well as contribution from NSGB. Credit demand is expected to pickup in Qatar during H as the government continues to escalate the award of key infrastructure contracts in preparation of World Cup Deposit growth is expected to be 26% YoY during FY 2013 with QNB likely to continue attracting the major share of public sector deposits in Qatar. While, we expect some pressure on margins to continue during the year, this is likely to be offset by the strong volume growth being generated by QNB. Valuation: QNB currently trades at a P/BV multiple of 2.2x FY 2013e BVPS of QAR compared to its historical average valuation band between 1.8x 3.0x. In terms of P/E, the stock is currently trading at 11.9x its FY 2013e EPS of QAR compared to its historical valuation band of 9.0x-15.0x. We assign a fair value for the stock at QAR 180, which implies a P/BV valuation of 2.4x and P/E valuation of 13.2x, which is in line with its historical valuation bands. At current levels, the stock offers a dividend yield of 3.7% based on its estimated FY 2013 dividend per share of QAR Primary Risks: Heavy reliance on the public sector increases concentration risk in the event of a macroeconomic slowdown affecting Qatar s economy; Growing exposure to higher risk Arab markets such as Egypt, Libya and Iraq expose the bank to political and social risks in these volatile economies; Slower than expected pickup in Qatar s infrastructure spending may dampen domestic credit off take. FINCORP WEALTH MANAGEMENT Page 4

5 FINANCIAL SUMMARY FINANCIAL SUMMARY FY ended Dec E Values in QAR million except per share data PER SHARE DATA EPS DPS BVPS INCOME STATEMENT Net Interest Income 5,675 7,799 9,150 11,061 Fees and Commission 1,121 1,297 1,305 1,771 Other Income Non-Interest Inc Total Operating Income 7,393 10,018 11,238 13,742 Operating Profit 6,101 8,414 9,306 11,435 Loan Loss Provisions 600 1,002 1,079 1,427 Minority Interest & Taxes Net Income 5,704 7,509 8,339 9,556 BALANCE SHEET ASSETS Cash & Equivalents 33,912 10,279 19,830 9,207 Due from Banks 24,687 38,566 37,022 39,808 Net Loans and Advances 131, , , ,087 Net Investments 24,048 50,383 50,048 58,275 Total Assets 223, , , ,762 LIABILITIES & SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY Due to Banks 14,345 39,482 22,202 24,744 Customer Deposits 165, , , ,393 Total Liabilities 198, , , ,327 Minority Interest Total Shareholders Equity 24,237 42,021 47,078 52,435 RATIO ANALYSIS FY ended Dec E VALUATION & PROFITABILITY METRICS P/E (x) P/BV (x) ROE (%) % 18.7% 19.2% ROA (%) 2.8% 2.9% 2.5% 2.3% GROWTH ANALYSIS Loan Growth (%) % 28.9% 32.5% Deposit Growth (%) 31.5% 20.9% 34.9% 25.7% Assets Growth (%) 24.6% 35.2% 21.5% 26.4% Book Value Growth (%) % % Net Int. Inc. Growth (%) 52.3% 37.4% 17.3% 20.9% Net Income Growth (%) 35.8% 31.6% % MARGIN ANALYSIS Cost to Income Ratio (%) 17.5% % 19. Net Interest Margin (%) % 2.95% 2.89% Operating Margin (%) 82.5% % 81. Net Income Margin (%) 77.2% % 69.5% KEY METRICS Capital Adequacy Ratio 15.3% % Loans/Deposits (%) Ratio (%) 79.6% 96.9% 92.6% 97.6% NPL/Gross Loans (%) % 1.4% Provision/Gross Loans (%) 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% NPL Coverage Ratio (%) 118% 119% 115% 117% Source: Company disclosure, FINCORP estimates Source: Company disclosure, FINCORP estimates Qatar National Bank - Relative Valuation Company Last Price Mkt. Cap. P/E P/BV Divd Yld (LC) (USD'mn) (TTM) FY'13 (E) (MRQ) (LFY) Qatar National Bank (QNB) , % Masraf Al Rayan (MARK) , % Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQ) , % Doha Bank (DHBK) , % Peer Average Note: Market data as of 3 July 2013 Source: Company Disclosure, Bloomberg, FINCORP Research FINCORP WEALTH MANAGEMENT Page 5

6 RESEARCH CONTACT DETAILS Nandakumar Chenicheri (+968) Ext: 353 Gaurav Ramaiya (+968) Ext: 348 Mable C Pereira (+968) Ext: 342 BROKERAGE CONTACT DETAILS Mohammad Al Ghalayini (+968) Ext: 333 Deena Omeir (+968) Ext: 334 The Financial Corporation Co SAOG (FINCORP) PO Box 782, PC 131, Sultanate of Oman Tel: Fax: Disclaimer The research team of The Financial Corporation, SAOG (hereto referred as FINCORP) has prepared the information, analysis and expressed its opinion on the subject matter of this report. The information contained has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but which may not be verified independently. While utmost care has been taken in preparing the above report, FINCORP makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, whether express or implied, and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness of the data, being provided. All investment information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The investor will indemnify FINCORP and its directors, officers, and employees against any loss or damage or other liabilities (including costs), which they may suffer as a result of reliance on this report. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Also, not all customers may receive the material at the same time. This document is for private circulation and information purposes only. It does not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities mentioned herein. FINCORP will not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use thereof, and the investors are expected to use the information contained herein at their own risk. FINCORP and its affiliates or their officers, directors and employees may own or have positions in any investment mentioned herein or any investment related thereto and from time to time add to or dispose of any such investment. FINCORP and its affiliates may act as market makers or underwrite securities of companies discussed herein (or investments related thereto), and may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking or underwriting services for or relating to those companies. Authors or contributors of this report could have direct interest in the capital market or in the securities mentioned herein. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position, and using such independent advisors, as they believe necessary. Income from investments may fluctuate. The price or value of the investments, to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. This document is strictly for the use of recipients only. None of the material provided herein may be reproduced, rewritten, rehashed, published, resold or distributed in any manner whatsoever without the prior and explicit written permission of FINCORP. FINCORP WEALTH MANAGEMENT Page 6

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