Strong operational performance

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1 ABB India Equity Research Engineering & Capital Goods February 8, 2016 Result Update Emkay Your success is our success Strong operational performance CMP Target Price Rs1,134 Rs1,407 ( ) Rating Upside BUY ( ) 24.1 % Result highlights ABB Q4CY15 operational results exceeded our expectations - (i) 8.3% YoY growth in revenues to Rs24bn and (ii) 280bps YoY improvement in EBIDTAM to 10.9%. Order intake decline by 17%YoY to Rs20bn. Base orders increase by 10% YoY. Order flow from renewables and railways more than double during CY15. Localization strategy yielding results Maintain Buy Steady revenue growth ABB reported steady revenues at Rs24bn (+8.3% YoY, +23.2% QoQ). Except for the power systems, all other segments reported YoY growth. Revenues in the power systems declined by 19.2%YoY to Rs5.2bn while the power products / process automation / discrete automation / low voltage products reported revenue growth of 17.7% / 13.5% / 6.4% / 16.1% YoY respectively. The services business grew at 12% to ~Rs10bn during CY15. Robust margins ABB s focus on localization enabled it to develop country relevant products at competitive prices - driving downs costs through material cost savings. The benefits of localization were more profound in power products segment. EBIDTAM improved to 10.9% (+280bps YoY, +290bps QoQ). EBITM in the power systems / power products / process automation / low voltage products improved to 11.4% (+600bps YoY, + 770bps QoQ) / 12.3% (+340bps YoY, + 190bps QoQ) / 12.2% (+390bps YoY, + 310bps QoQ) / 8.2% (+360bps YoY, - 260bps QoQ) respectively. The discrete automation segment reported decline in EBITM to 7.8% (-200bps YoY, -100bps QoQ). Lower order intake Order intake during Q4CY15 had declined on account of poor utilization rates in core sectors like steel, cement pulp and paper etc., However the base orders increased by 10% for both the quarter as well as for CY15. Order inflow declined during Q4CY15 to Rs21bn (- 17%YoY) while it marginally increased by 2.4% to Rs81bn for CY15. The order inflow from renewables (wind + solar) and railways more than doubled during CY15 and is expected to gain strong traction, going forward. Maintain Buy Larger share of ABB revenues is derived from products and the company s exposure to important sectors like T&D, renewable power, railways and industrials would benefit the company during the early to mid-cycle capex. We expect ABB to post 11% revenue CAGR (CY14-18E) and 39% PAT CAGR (CY14-18E). At the CMP, the stock trades at 28xCY18E earnings. We recommend Buy with a target price of Rs1407 based on 35xCY18E earnings. Financial Snapshot (Standalone) (Rs mn) CY14 CY15 CY16E CY17E CY18E Net Sales 76,039 80,896 91, , ,399 EBITDA 5,557 7,125 9,215 11,619 14,824 EBITDA Margin (%) APAT 2,285 2,999 4,533 6,207 8,538 EPS (Rs) EPS (% chg) ROE (%) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Source: Company, Emkay Research Emkay Research is also available on Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>, Reuters and DOWJONES. Change in Estimates EPS Chg CY16E/CY17E (%) NA Target Price change (%) NA Previous Reco BUY Emkay vs Consensus EPS Estimates CY16E CY17E Emkay Consensus Mean Consensus TP Rs 1,031 Stock Details Bloomberg Code ABB IN Face Value (Rs) 2 Shares outstanding (mn) Week H/L 1,526 / 955 M Cap (Rs bn/usd bn) 240 / 3.55 Daily Avg Volume (nos.) 453,191 Daily Avg Turnover (US$ mn) 7.4 Shareholding Pattern Dec '15 Promoters 75.0% FIIs 4.4% DIIs 12.4% Public and Others 8.3% Price Performance (%) 1M 3M 6M 12M Absolute 4 (9) (17) (10) Rel. to Nifty (3) (2) (5) 5 Relative price chart 1475 Rs % Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 ABB India (LHS) Rel to Nifty (RHS) Source: Bloomberg John Perinchery Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.

2 Exhibit 1: Quarterly Standalone Table Rs mn Q4CY14 Q1CY15 Q2CY15 Q3CY15 Q4CY15 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Revenue 22,384 18,146 19,316 19,690 24, Expenditure 20,584 16,710 17,816 18,132 21, Consumption of RM 14,286 10,836 11,420 11,741 14, as % of sales Employee Cost 1,954 1,828 1,840 1,876 1, as % of sales Other expenditure 4,344 4,046 4,556 4,515 5, as % of sales EBITDA 1,800 1,436 1,500 1,557 2, Depreciation EBIT 1,508 1,014 1,125 1,198 2, Other Income Interest PBT 1, , Total Tax Adjusted PAT , Extra ordinary items Reported PAT , Adjusted EPS (Rs) Margins (%) (bps) (bps) EBIDTA EBIT EBT PAT Effective Tax rate Source: Company, Emkay Research Emkay Research February 8,

3 Exhibit 2: Quarterly Segmental Performance Rs mn Q4CY14 Q1CY15 Q2CY15 Q3CY15 Q4CY15 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Segment Revenues Power systems 6,484 4,576 4,547 4,342 5, Power Products 6,578 5,394 6,238 6,620 7, Process Automations 3,452 2,698 3,123 2,765 3, Discrete Automation & Motions 5,755 4,647 4,788 5,064 6, Low Voltage Products 1,901 1,770 1,920 2,110 2, Unallocated Total 24,300 19,212 20,738 21,028 25, Less: Intersegment Revenues 1,916 1,066 1,421 1,338 1, Total 22,384 18,146 19,316 19,690 24, Segment Results Power systems Power Products Process Automations Discrete Automation & Motions Low Voltage Products Total 1,874 1,305 1,576 1,775 2, Add- Unall Income / (Exp) Less- Interest Exp PBT 1, , Segment Capital Employed Power systems 8,316 9,669 10,222 10,459 10, Power Products 8,068 8,131 7,950 8,447 7, Process Automations 3,075 3,625 3,636 3,777 3, Discrete Automation & Motions 3,544 4,026 3,747 4,389 3, Low Voltage Products 2,735 2,847 2,804 3,007 2, Unallocated 2, , Total 28,120 28,573 29,148 29,688 30, Segment Margin (%) (bps) (bps) Power systems Power Products Process Automations Discrete Automation & Motions Low Voltage Products Average Source: Company, Emkay Research Emkay Research February 8,

4 Key Financials (Standalone) Income Statement Y/E Dec (Rs mn) CY14 CY15 CY16E CY17E CY18E Net Sales 76,039 80,896 91, , ,399 Expenditure 71,776 74,278 82,568 90, ,575 EBITDA 5,557 7,125 9,215 11,619 14,824 Depreciation 1,128 1,598 1,273 1,359 1,444 EBIT 4,429 5,527 7,942 10,261 13,379 Other Income Interest expenses 1, ,375 1,430 1,430 PBT 3,552 4,746 6,765 9,061 12,198 Tax 1,267 1,747 2,233 2,854 3,659 Extraordinary Items Minority Int./Income from Assoc Reported Net Income 2,285 2,999 4,533 6,207 8,538 Adjusted PAT 2,285 2,999 4,533 6,207 8,538 Balance Sheet Y/E Dec (Rs mn) CY14 CY15 CY16E CY17E CY18E Equity share capital Reserves & surplus 27,696 29,662 32,414 36,078 40,548 Net worth 28,120 30,086 32,838 36,502 40,972 Minority Interest Loan Funds 3,711 6,000 6,500 6,500 6,500 Net deferred tax liability (152) (490) (490) (490) (490) Total Liabilities 31,678 35,596 38,849 42,513 46,982 Net block 13,995 13,427 13,654 13,796 13,851 Investment Current Assets 53,585 60,008 66,184 72,014 80,018 Cash & bank balance 2,260 5,736 7,140 7,879 8,330 Other Current Assets 4,022 3,964 3,964 3,964 3,964 Current liabilities & Provision 36,386 38,003 41,154 43,461 47,051 Net current assets 17,199 22,005 25,031 28,553 32,967 Misc. exp Total Assets 31,678 35,596 38,849 42,513 46,982 Cash Flow Y/E Dec (Rs mn) CY14 CY15 CY16E CY17E CY18E PBT (Ex-Other income) (NI+Dep) 3,379 4,616 6,567 8,831 11,949 Other Non-Cash items 506 (241) Chg in working cap 158 (1,667) (1,622) (2,783) (3,964) Operating Cashflow 5,300 3,469 5,361 5,982 7,201 Capital expenditure (1,053) (710) (1,500) (1,500) (1,500) Free Cash Flow 4,247 2,759 3,861 4,482 5,701 Investments Other Investing Cash Flow (1,108) Investing Cashflow (1,987) (579) (1,302) (1,270) (1,252) Equity Capital Raised Loans Taken / (Repaid) (2,490) 2, Dividend paid (incl tax) 744 1,129 1,780 2,543 4,068 Other Financing Cash Flow (1,424) (1,921) (3,560) (5,086) (8,137) Financing Cashflow (4,220) 586 (2,655) (3,973) (5,498) Net chg in cash (907) 3,476 1, Opening cash position 3,166 2,260 5,736 7,140 7,879 Closing cash position 2,259 5,736 7,140 7,879 8,330 Emkay Research February 8,

5 Key Ratios Profitability (%) CY14 CY15 CY16E CY17E CY18E EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin Effective Tax Rate Net Margin ROCE ROE RoIC Per Share Data (Rs) CY14 CY15 CY16E CY17E CY18E EPS CEPS BVPS DPS Valuations (x) CY14 CY15 CY16E CY17E CY18E PER P/CEPS P/BV EV / Sales EV / EBITDA Dividend Yield (%) Gearing Ratio (x) CY14 CY15 CY16E CY17E CY18E Net Debt/ Equity Net Debt/EBIDTA (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) Working Cap Cycle (days) Growth (%) CY14 CY15 CY16E CY17E CY18E Revenue EBITDA EBIT PAT Quarterly (Rs mn) Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Revenue 22,384 18,146 19,316 19,690 24,251 EBITDA 1,800 1,436 1,500 1,557 2,632 EBITDA Margin (%) PAT ,294 EPS (Rs) Shareholding Pattern (%) Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Promoters FIIs DIIs Public and Others Emkay Research February 8,

6 Emkay Rating Distribution BUY Expected total return (%) (Stock price appreciation and dividend yield) of over 25% within the next months. ACCUMULATE Expected total return (%) (Stock price appreciation and dividend yield) of over 10% within the next months. HOLD Expected total return (%) (Stock price appreciation and dividend yield) of upto 10% within the next months. REDUCE Expected total return (%) (Stock price depreciation) of upto (-) 10% within the next months. SELL The stock is believed to underperform the broad market indices or its related universe within the next months. Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. CIN - L67120MH1995PLC th Floor, The Ruby, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar - West, Mumbai India Tel: Fax: Web: DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES: Emkay Global Financial Services Limited (CIN-L67120MH1995PLC084899) and its affiliates are a full-service, brokerage, investment banking, investment management and financing group. Emkay Global Financial Services Limited (EGFSL) along with its affiliates are participants in virtually all securities trading markets in India. EGFSL was established in 1995 and is one of India's leading brokerage and distribution house.egfsl is a corporate trading member of Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), National Stock Exchange of India Limited(NSE), MCX Stock Exchange Limited (MCX-SX).EGFSL along with its subsidiaries offers the most comprehensive avenues for investments and is engaged in the businesses including stock broking (Institutional and retail), merchant banking, commodity broking, depository participant, portfolio management, insurance broking and services rendered in connection with distribution of primary market issues and financial products like mutual funds, fixed deposits. Details of associates are available on our website i.e. EGFSL is registered as Research Analyst with SEBI bearing registration Number INH as per SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, EGFSL hereby declares that it has not defaulted with any stock exchange nor its activities were suspended by any stock exchange with whom it is registered in last five years, except that NSE had disabled EGFSL from trading on October 05, October 08 and October 09, 2012 for a manifest error resulting into a bonafide erroneous trade on October 05, However, SEBI and Stock Exchanges have conducted the routine inspection and based on their observations have issued advice letters or levied minor penalty on EGFSL for certain operational deviations in ordinary/routine course of business. EGFSL has not been debarred from doing business by any Stock Exchange / SEBI or any other authorities; nor has its certificate of registration been cancelled by SEBI at any point of time. EGFSL offers research services to clients as well as prospects. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Other disclosures by Emkay Global Financial Services Limited (Research Entity) and its Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 with reference to the subject company(s) covered in this report-: EGFSL or its associates may have financial interest in the subject company. Research Analyst or his/her relative s financial interest in the subject company. (NO) EGFSL or its associates and Research Analyst or his/her relative s does not have any material conflict of interest in the subject company. The research Analyst or research entity (EGFSL) have not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. EGFSL or its associates may have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report. Research Analyst or his/her relatives have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report: (NO) EGFSL or its associates may have received any compensation including for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months. EGFSL or its associates may have received compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months. EGFSL or its associates may have received any compensation or other benefits from the Subject Company or third party in connection with the research report. Subject Company may have been client of EGFSL or its associates during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report and EGFSL may have co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months. The research Analyst has served as officer, director or employee of the subject company: (NO) EGFSL and/or its affiliates may seek investment banking or other business from the company or companies that are the subject of this material. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein, and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment decisions that may be inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. In reviewing these materials, you should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest including but not limited to those stated herein. Additionally, other important information regarding our relationships with the company or companies that are the subject of this material is provided herein. This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject EGFSL or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Specifically, this document does not constitute an offer to or solicitation to any U.S. person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction to any U.S. person. Unless otherwise stated, this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction. No part of this document may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom. All material presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Emkay. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of EGFSL. All trademarks, service marks and logos used in this report are trademarks or registered trademarks of EGFSL or its Group Companies. The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized reading, dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized. Please ensure that you have read Risk Disclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segments as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in Indian Securities Market. In so far as this report includes current or historic information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Emkay Research February 8,

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