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1 This Copy has been provided to you by: ParaWest Management 7979 N. Hayden Rd., Suite D263 Scottsdale, AZ
2 Greater Phoenix economic fundamentals have not really changed (even with SB1070). The long term economic outlook remains favorable.
3 Shorter Term Considerations: We will benefit from the U.S. recovery; Housing is very affordable again; Single family permitting is probably bottoming; Employment has probably bottomed; So has population; Consumer spending will be up a little; California is still a complete disaster;
4 Longer Term Considerations: People will start moving here again; We will again create jobs at a rapid pace as the local recovery takes hold; But, these will be lower quality jobs; We anticipate base industries will not grow as strongly; The jury is still out on whether state policymakers will help to turn this around.
5 Subject National economy Greater Phoenix Outlook Summary Good News Recovering Bad News Very slowly Housing Commercial real estate State government Retail sales At or past bottom At or near bottom Sales tax revenues no longer falling Past bottom; pent up demand Still many negatives. No quick fix for population flows. Recovery will be slow and take a long time. Revenue growth too slow to fix problem soon. Consumers need to restructure balance sheet will prevent big recovery.
6 Greater Phoenix Forecast Indicator Population 0.9% 1.0% 2.0% Employment -7.8% -1.0% 2.0% Retail Sales -10.6% 1.0% 8.0% Building Permits -41.0% 20.0% 50.0% Source:
7 Greater Phoenix Net Migration Source: University of Arizona Recession Periods *Forecasts from UofA 2010q3
8 18% Multi-Family Year-End Vacancy Rates Maricopa County * Source: ASU Realty Studies Recession Periods 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% 6.2% 4.1% 3.3% 2.8% % 6.1% 4.4% 6.1% 7.7% 6.9% 10.1% 10.6% 13.0% 14.1% 13.4% % 9.5% 8.0% %3.8% 4.5%4.5%4.8% 5.1% 5.9% 6.8% 8.2% 9.4% 9.6% 7.9% 5.3% 5.0% % 10.8% 14.2% 12.9% * are forecasts from the Greater Phoenix Blue Chip 11.8%
9 Apartment Sales: Price per Square Foot Maricopa County Source: Kammrath & Associates $150 $100 $103.0 $103.0 $98.7 $86.3 $50 $0 $35.8 $38.9 $42.6$ $37.4 $37.0 $36.7$30.9$28.6 $29.8$24.7 $29.7 $36.2$ $55.7 $62.9 $69.3 $57.7 $58.9$62.7 $58.4 $45.0$ $56.9
10 Multi-Family Construction Activity Source: PMHS Absorption Chg in Inventory* ,756 (5,169) 2006 (4,653) (3,828) 2007 (5,846) 4, (4,466) 3, (5,319) 6, q2ytd 10,221 3,171 *There were 19,949 condo conversion in the Greater Phoenix area from q through q
11 There are currently 293 multi-family units under construction (q2 10).
12 Single-Family Vacant Units Greater Phoenix q2 Source: PMHS 120, , , ,625 80,000 60,000 51,650 58,050 40,000 20,000 29,775 23,825 15,42514,975 14,725 19,800 24,450 19,325 13,681 13,725 13,750 17,525 17,525 17,
13 Investors: 40% Market? Percent of Non-Owner Occupied Sales of Total Sales Greater Phoenix Source: DataQuick 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 1998Q1 1998Q3 1999Q1 1999Q3 2000Q1 2000Q3 2001Q1 2001Q3 2002Q1 2002Q3 2003Q1 2003Q3 2004Q1 2004Q3 2005Q1 2005Q3 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 0%
14 $325.0 $300.0 $275.0 $250.0 $225.0 $200.0 $175.0 $150.0 $125.0 $100.0 $75.0 $50.0 Greater Phoenix Median Price of Single Family Homes - Resale * Source: Realty Studies Recession Periods $265.0 $216.8 $200.0 $175.0 $158.0 $136.0 $146.9 $ Q Q Q Q Q3 2002Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 *Data through second quarter Q1 (000)
15 Commercial 1 Mortgage Maturities * Source: Foresight Analytics $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 $21.2 $23.9 $26.6 $30.0$34.2 $17.6 $ $58.3 $39.2$48.3 $79.4 $65.3 $73.1 $79.6 $ $67.1 $60.0 $48.4 $43.7 $44.6 $53.6 $62.7 $ $118.3 $101.9 $76.7 $88.1 $134.0 $166.4 $225.9 $226.5 $218.9 $197.2 $177.9 $199.4 $198.0 $183.7 $177.3 $ / Includes mainly office, retail, industrial and hotels Note: Forecast is from Foresight Analytics $44.8 $34.2
16 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% 4.9% -3.7% 8.7% 13.3% Greater Phoenix Employment* Annual Percent Change ** Source: Department of Commerce, Research Administration 10.4% 3.7% 3.0% -0.1% % 11.2% 9.3% 6.6%7.2% 7.3% 5.9% 5.4% 5.4% 6.2% 5.4% 4.8% 4.9% 3.5% 2.5% 4.6% 3.5% 3.9% 2.2% 1.5% 1.1% 1.2% 1.6% -0.3% *Non-agricultural wage & salary employment. Changed from SIC to NAICS reporting in ** 2010 & 2011 forecasts are from Elliott D. Pollack & Co. -0.1% -2.5% -1.0% -7.9% % Recession Periods
17 Greater Phoenix Y/Y Job Losses - Recent Recessions Duration in Months - BLS 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% 1980/ July -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% -7.0% % -9.0% -10.0% Recession 1980/81 Recession 1991 Recession 2001 Recession Current Recession
18 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 2, , , , , , , ,000.0 Employment Levels: Greater Phoenix back to Peak in 2014 Source: ADOC Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Peak Recession Periods
19 Arizona Employment Rank Among 50 States Growth Over Previous Year Source: Arizona State University Recession Periods YTD July 2010 = 42
20 How did we go from 2 nd to 49 th? Base industries of Arizona were impacted a) Semi-conductors b) Tourism c) Retirement Go into durables Jobs being sent overseas
21 How did AZ go from 2 nd to 49 th? Financial meltdown. Credit crunch/freeze. Overextended consumer. Excess single family inventory. Loss of wealth incl. home equity. Can t sell homes or retire. Homebuilding crash. Population inflows weaken. Excess commercial construction Construction job losses. All sector job loses.
22 How did we go from 2 nd to 49 th? People can t move here. Population Growth U.S. Arizona % 3.1% (195,000) % 0.8% (55,000)
23 How did we go from 2 nd to 49 th? Housing boom turns into bust Permits U.S. 7.4% 6.5% -14.6% -28.6% -40.5% -28.5% Greater Phoenix 27.6% 4.4% -33.3% -26.5% -59.6% -26.5%
24 How did we go from 2 nd to 49 th? Commercial Construction Peak to Current 2009 Percent Decline Office Retail Industrial U.S % -51.4% -57.5% Greater Phoenix -63.3% -60.3% -65.8%
25 How does AZ go from 49 th to 2 nd? Wait. Slow recovery. Credit frees up. Consumers more confident. Overall US economy improves. Stock market improves. Excess housing absorbed. People start to move to AZ again. Housing prices rise. Construction job gains. All sector job gains. More people move to AZ. Improved government revenue. Grow our base industries!!!
26 How do we go from 49 th to 2 nd? 2010 will be better than will be better than It will be 2012 or 2013 before the State is growing rapidly again.
27 CONCLUSION: Recovery in Greater Phoenix will be painfully slow.
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