UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014"

Transcription

1 UK Economic Forecast Q David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and to contribute to the wider public debate on policy issues. The Forecast also aims to complement the messages conveyed by the BCC s Quarterly Economic Survey (QES). Table of Contents Key messages... 2 GDP and the main components of demand... 3 The external position: net trade & the current account... 5 Monetary policy: interest rates, forward guidance & QE... 7 UK main sectors: manufacturing, services & construction... 8 Unemployment and the labour market Youth unemployment Inflation and labour costs UK public finances Policy issues Contact details BCC UK Economic Forecast Q PAGE 1 OF 14

2 Key messages The BCC is upgrading slightly its short-term UK GDP growth forecasts: to 3.2% for 2014 and to 2.8% for For 2016, our GDP growth forecast remains unchanged, at 2.5%. In Q we predicted GDP growth of 3.1% in 2014, 2.7% in 2015 and 2.5% in The upgrading of our forecasts for 2014 & 2015 is mainly due to the following factors: - A stronger labour market than we predicted in our Q2 forecast. - Stronger growth than we previously predicted in Q3 & Q Upgraded ONS estimates for year-on-year GDP growth in Q The realistic possibility that the ONS would upgrade its back data for the first half of We are forecasting stronger growth in household consumption, investment & services output than we predicted in Q2; and a weaker, but still positive, contribution to growth from net trade. The unemployment rate is forecast to fall from 6.4% in Q2 2014, to 5.5% in Q2 2015, 5.0% in Q and 4.9% in Q2 2017; these are lower jobless rates than we predicted in Q2. We expect the first increase in Bank Rate, to 0.75%, to occur in Q1 2015, an unchanged timetable since our last forecast. But pressures for an earlier rise in rates are intensifying. Further modest increases in official interest rates can then be expected, in small 0.25% steps, with official interest rates reaching 1.25% in Q and 2.25% in Q After official rates start rising early in 2015, household consumption will slow markedly. But consumption will still contribute to GDP growth more than other areas of the economy. Our GDP growth forecasts are satisfactory. But we are predicting a marked slowdown, from 3.2% in 2014 to 2.5% in This reflects a deceleration in household consumption growth, which more than offsets greater contributions to growth from investment and net trade. The greater contribution to growth of net trade is not as large as we predicted in Q2. Falling public spending and stock building as a share of GDP will also reduce GDP growth. In terms of output, the main contributor to UK growth in the next three years will be services. But manufacturing and construction will also record satisfactory positive growth in this period. Productivity will increase modestly in the next few years, but at a pace that is considerably slower than before the financial crisis. Underlying public sector borrowing is forecast to fall over the next three years, but at a slightly slower pace than envisaged in the OBR predictions made in March BCC UK Economic Forecast Q PAGE 2 OF 14

3 GDP and the main components of demand GDP: Quarterly UK growth in Q was 0.8%, as predicted, after growth of 0.8% in Q and 0.7% in Q But annual growth in Q was revised up to 3.2%. As expected, in Q2 2014, UK GDP was 0.2% above the pre-recession peak in Q UK GDP growth in recent quarters was stronger than in most other G7 economies. Year-on-year UK growth in Q was 3.2%, higher than 2.4% in the US and 1.3% in Germany. But longer-term comparisons show that UK GDP in Q was just 0.2% above its pre-crisis peak in Q However, real GDP in Germany and the US have been for some time above their pre-recession levels. Sharp falls in oil & gas output, and financial sector weaknesses, have been major factors contributing to the relative weakness of the UK economy before Table 1 summarises our forecasts for UK GDP and its main components. Table 1: UK GDP & Main Demand Components, % Change Year on Year GDP 1.1% 0.3% 1.7% 3.2% 2.8% 2.5% Household Consumption -0.5% 1.5% 2.2% 2.9% 2.8% 2.2% General Government 0.0% 1.6% 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% Investment -2.4% 0.8% -0.8% 7.1% 5.5% 5.7% of which: Business Investment -1.3% 3.9% -1.0% 10.7% 7.4% 7.4% Exports 4.5% 1.7% 0.5% 0.8% 4.1% 4.6% Imports 0.3% 3.4% 0.2% 0.1% 3.7% 4.1% We expect quarterly GDP growth of 0.8% in Q3 & Q4 2014, followed by 0.7% growth in Q1 2015, and a more marked slowdown to 0.6% growth per quarter from Q onwards. As official rates start rising in 2015, indebted households with mortgages will face increased financial pressures, and weaker household consumption will slow markedly GDP growth. In calendar-year terms, GDP growth is forecast to accelerate from 1.7% growth in 2013 to 3.2% in 2014, and then slow markedly to 2.7% in 2015 and 2.5% in Household consumption growth accelerated from -0.5% in 2011 to 1.5% in 2012 and 2.2% in 2013, as lower inflation in the past 2 years has eased the squeeze disposable incomes. Consumption also benefited from the positive wealth effects of rising house prices. We expect calendar-year growth in household consumption to strengthen further, to 2.9% in 2014, and then slow to 2.8% in 2015 and 2.2% in The UK households savings ratio fell to very low levels before the financial crisis, and averaged only 2.1% in 2007 and 2.2% in BCC UK Economic Forecast Q PAGE 3 OF 14

4 Thereafter, the savings ratio rose sharply, to 7.0% in 2009, and fluctuated around this level until 2012 when it averaged 7.3%. In 2013, with consumer spending recovering, the savings ratio fell to an average of 5.2%, still much higher than before the financial crisis. In Q and Q the savings ratio was slightly below 5.0%. Our new forecast envisages further near-term falls in the savings ratio, as robust GDP growth and rising asset prices boost consumer confidence. However, the expected rise in mortgage interest rates from the spring of 2015 will make households more cautious, even if the initial reaction will be to use their savings in order to help finance higher debt service payments. In calendar-year terms, we are forecasting that the savings ratio will fall to 4.0% in 2014 and 3.5% in 2015, before edging back up to 4.0% in The savings ratio will still be higher in the next few years than at its historically lows in 2007 & But, in view of the need to reduce very high levels of household debt and to cut the huge current account deficit, we will have to save more once growth returns to normal. The recent spurt in UK growth was boosted by the impact of the buoyant housing market on household consumption, but this is causing concern. Household consumption cannot rely indefinitely on increased debt and a falling savings ratio. With productivity increases remaining low by historical standards, only modest rises in real earnings will be affordable. Unless stronger productivity growth makes higher increases in real earnings affordable, the recovery would slow further and may even fizzle out. Business investment recorded very sharp falls following the financial crisis. The published figures have been very volatile, and the ONS has made frequent & unusually large revisions. In calendar-year terms, UK business investment fell by 1.0% between 2012 and But recent growth was exceptionally strong. In Q1 2014, business investment recorded a quarterly increase of 5.0%, and it was 10.6% higher than a year earlier. Nevertheless, Q1 business investment was still 15.5% below its Q pre-recession peak. Our new forecast envisages strong positive growth in business investment over the next few years, but from a relatively low base. In calendar-year terms, we expect UK business investment to record growth of 10.7% in 2014, 7.4% in 2015 & 7.4% in Even so, business investment will only surpass its Q peak in Q BCC UK Economic Forecast Q PAGE 4 OF 14

5 The external position: net trade & the current account The UK trade deficit is now markedly smaller than before the financial crisis. In , the goods & services trade deficit averaged 3.5% of GDP in real terms and 2.7% in current prices. In , the deficit averaged 1.3% of GDP in real terms and 1.8% in current prices. A larger surplus in services has made the main contribution to the improvement. The much-needed rebalancing of the UK economy towards net exports is still inadequate, but there has been real progress. In the next few years, we expect the deficit to narrow further. Table 2 shows our forecasts for UK net trade, and for the account current balance. Table 2: Balance of Payments: Current Account & Net Trade in Goods & Services NetTrade-Real-Goods&Services-%GDP -1.0% -1.5% -1.4% -1.1% -1.0% -0.8% NetTrade-Real-Goods&Services- bn NetTrade-CurrntPrics-Goods&Servics-%GDP -1.5% -2.1% -1.8% -1.5% -1.3% -1.2% NetTrade-CurrentPrics-Goods&Servics- bn NetTrade-CurrentPrices-Goods-%GDP -6.5% -7.0% -6.7% -6.6% -6.6% -6.6% NetTrade-CurrentPrices-Services-%GDP 5.0% 4.8% 4.9% 5.1% 5.3% 5.4% BofP-CurrentAccount-%GDP -1.5% -3.8% -4.5% -4.0% -3.5% -3.1% BofP-CurrentAccount- bn Our forecast is that the real net trade deficit will fall from 1.4% of GDP in 2013 to 0.8% in 2016, while the net deficit in current prices will fall from 1.8% of GDP in 2013 to 1.2% in The goods deficit is likely to fall marginally, from 6.7% of GDP in 2013 to 6.6% in 2016, while the trade surplus in services will increase more substantially, from 4.9% of GDP to 5.4%. In contrast to the trade deficit, the UK current account deficit is larger than before the crisis. While the net trade balance improved, the current account deficit worsened sharply in 2013, to 4.5% of GDP, highest since the 4.6% of GDP record current account deficit in In the second half of 2013, the current deficit ballooned to 5.9% of GDP in Q3 & 5.7% in Q4. In Q1 2014, the current account deficit fell to 4.4% of GDP, still a very high level BCC UK Economic Forecast Q PAGE 5 OF 14

6 The main factor accounting for the worsening current deficit in 2013 was the deterioration in the income balance. The UK income balance, though traditionally in surplus, moved into deficit since mid This is mainly due to adverse FDI flows and, possibly, financial sector weaknesses. The income balance deficit widened considerably in recent quarters. Prospects for the current account are very uncertain, because it is unclear whether, and to what extent, the income balance will recover following its very sharp recent worsening. Our forecast is that the current account deficit will shrink from 4.5% of GDP in 2013 to 3.1% of GDP in 2016; this will still be a very high level, which could make the UK potentially vulnerable to speculative attacks, particularly if the income balance fails to improve. Financing the deficit will not be a problem in the short term, but the UK will face serious long-term risks without a more meaningful reduction in the current account deficit BCC UK Economic Forecast Q PAGE 6 OF 14

7 Monetary policy: interest rates, forward guidance & QE Since the unemployment rate has fallen more sharply than originally envisaged, the MPC s forward guidance has relied since February 2014 on a wider range of indicators. But efforts to provide clarity and support the recovery are being hampered by repeated calls for early interest rate rises, and by apparent inconsistencies in the various comments made by Governor Carney and other MPC members. To sustain business confidence, the MPC should strive to communicate clearly and avoid contradictions in its messages. In our view it is too early to start raising official interest rates. The MPC has stressed that when rates start rising, increases will be gradual and moderate. Businesses accept this, but the message must be clearer. Our new central forecast is that the first increase in Bank Rate, to 0.75%, would occur in Q This timetable is unchanged since our Q2 forecast. Further modest increases in official rates can then be expected, in small 0.25% steps, with official rates reaching 1.25% in Q and 2.25% in Q While not raising rates prematurely is important, keeping rates as low as possible over the medium term is more critical for business confidence than the timing of the first increase. Our current interest rate forecast is consistent with continued moderate economic growth. Gradual Bank Rate rises starting in 2015, to reach a level of 2.25% by end-2016, would be preferable to a situation in which the MPC delays unduly the first rate increase, but is then forced to tighten aggressively because it loses credibility as an inflation fighter. The recovery is still fragile, and the rise in sterling since March 2013, which is equivalent to a tightening in monetary policy, is an important reason for not raising rates prematurely. Our forecast also envisages that the QE programme would be maintained at its current level of 375 billion. No reduction in the stock of assets held by the BoE would be considered at least until mid But we also predict that there would be no increases in QE. UK inflation is now below target, but it has been above target for more than 4 years. The MPC must make every effort to sustain the credibility of its commitment to low inflation. The MPC should do more to support a revival in business lending, both by making better use of the existing QE programme, and by using measures other than QE alone. If the MPC agrees to purchase private sector assets other than gilts, such as securitised SME loans, banks would be less risk-averse in lending to businesses. The Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) has reduced funding costs, and helped the housing market, but has not made the banks less risk averse towards key areas of business lending BCC UK Economic Forecast Q PAGE 7 OF 14

8 UK main sectors: manufacturing, services & construction In Q2 2014, service sector output recorded quarterly growth of 1.0%, and was the UK economy s main growth driver. Total production recorded quarterly growth of 0.3% in Q2, with manufacturing increasing by 0.2%. But construction sector output was flat in Q Year-on-year growth in Q was 3.3% for manufacturing, 2.1% for total production, 4.8% for construction and 3.3% for services. In Q2 2014, service sector output was 3.0% above its pre-recession level in Q However, other sectors were still were below pre-recession levels in Q2 2014: -7.4% for manufacturing, % for total production, and -10.2% for construction. The main contributor to UK GDP growth in the next 3 years will remain the service sector, which is expected to contribute some 80% of total UK GDP growth. But manufacturing and construction will also record satisfactory positive growth in this period. Table 3 summarises our specific forecasts for manufacturing, services, and construction. Table 3: Manufacturing, Services & Construction Output, % Change Year-on-Year Manufacturing Output 1.8% -1.7% -0.8% 3.0% 1.5% 1.6% Total Industrial Production -1.2% -2.4% -0.4% 2.0% 1.4% 1.4% Construction Output 2.3% -8.1% 1.7% 4.3% 2.8% 3.0% Services Output 1.5% 1.3% 1.9% 3.3% 3.1% 2.7% In calendar year terms, manufacturing output fell by 1.7% in 2012 & by 0.8% in But growth was positive in recent quarters. We expect positive growth in the next few years. But the pace of expansion will be weaker than in the service sector. Our forecast envisages positive manufacturing growth of 3.0% in 2014, 1.5% in 2015 & 1.6% in Total industrial output fell by 2.4% in 2012 & by 0.4% in Our new forecast envisages positive calendar year growth of 2.0% in 2014, 1.4% in 2015 & 1.4% in Manufacturing is still a significant sector, but its share of total UK output has fallen in recent decades, and now accounts for only 10.4% of the economy. Our forecast indicates that the share of manufacturing in total UK output may shrink a little further in the next few years. In spite of sterling s recent strength, the sector is still benefiting from a relatively competitive exchange rate, due to large sterling falls between 2007 & Manufacturing is now a well-managed sector, and many firms have retained their skill bases during the recession BCC UK Economic Forecast Q PAGE 8 OF 14

9 A challenging global environment and the eurozone s problems will limit manufacturing exports in the next few years. But the prospects for manufacturing are relatively positive. Construction output recorded a calendar year fall of 8.1% in But the sector bounced back in the past year, reflecting the strong housing market upturn, with positive calendar year growth of 1.7% in In Q2 2014, construction output was 4.8% higher than a year earlier. With house building expected to increase, and with infrastructure spending likely to rise, we expect positive quarterly growth in construction output in the next few years. In full-year terms, we predict construction output growth of 4.3% in 2014, 2.8% in 2015 & 3.0% in Quarterly construction figures are very volatile and may cause swings in the annual figures. The service sector is the largest and strongest sector in the UK economy, accounting for 77.8% of total output. In 2013, services output recorded calendar year growth of 1.9%. Service sector output is forecast to record calendar year growth of 3.3% in 2014, 3.1% in 2015, and 2.7% in The share of services in total output is likely to rise a little further in the next few years. This continued steady trend towards increasing reliance on services will reflect structural changes in the UK economy, and is not in itself a cause of concern BCC UK Economic Forecast Q PAGE 9 OF 14

10 Unemployment and the labour market The UK labour market strengthened further in Q Compared with the previous quarter, employment in Q2 rose by 167,000 and unemployment fell by 132,000. Though youth unemployment, long-term joblessness, and the level of inactivity are all still too high, recent figures show steady improvements in all these areas. Underemployment is also still too high, and million people are working part-time because they could not find a full-time job. We expect UK unemployment to fall faster, and to a lower level, than we predicted in Q2. The improved outlook for unemployment in our new forecast is due to: - Higher GDP growth in 2014 & 2015 than we predicted in Q2 - Continued strong labour market flexibility, and - Larger than expected falls in the jobless total in recent months Our new forecast envisages that the unemployment rate will fall from 6.4% in Q to 5.5% in Q2 2015, 5.0% in Q2 2016, and to 4.9% in Q We are forecasting the jobless total to fall from million in Q2 2014, to million in Q2 2015, million in Q2 2016, and to million in Q2 2017, a net overall fall in total unemployment of 420,000 over the next 3 years. Employment will continue to rise in the next few years, but some factors would still exert upward pressure on unemployment, limiting the size of future net declines. Planned cuts in government spending will cause further public sector job losses. Gradual productivity increase will limit the need for new workers. Many inactive people will rejoin the workforce, thus slowing the net fall in the jobless total. Compared with Q1 2008, output per hour worked is now more than 4% lower. Our forecast envisages modest increases in productivity from current low levels. However, productivity is unlikely to improve to its pre-recession levels in the next three years. A temporary decline in productivity is acceptable during a recession, because it alleviates human misery and helps businesses to retain skills. However, if productivity fails to recover as the economy returns to growth, living standards will suffer in the long-term. Table 4 summarises our forecasts for UK unemployment and productivity BCC UK Economic Forecast Q PAGE 10 OF 14

11 Table 4: UK labour market: total unemployment and youth unemployment Actual Forecast Q2 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q2 15 Q2 16 Q2 17 Unemployment rate, % 7.8% 6.8% 6.4% 5.5% 5.0% 4.9% Unemployed, 000s Youth Unemployment rate, % 21.4% 18.9% 16.9% 15.1% 14.0% 13.8% Youth Unemployed, 000s Youth unemployment 767,000 people aged 16 to 24 were unemployed in Q2 2014, down 102,000 from Q1 2014, and down 206,000 from Q These were the largest quarterly and annual falls in youth unemployment since comparable records began in The unemployment rate for people aged 16 to 24 was 16.9% in Q2 2014, down from 19.0% for January to March In line with international definitions, the unemployment figure includes 265,000 people in fulltime education who were looking for part-time work. With total UK unemployment forecast to fall to million in Q (a jobless rate of 4.9%), we are forecasting that total youth unemployment (people aged 16 to 24) will fall from 767,000 in Q2 2014, to 636,000 (a jobless rate of 13.8%) in Q2 2017, a net fall of 130, BCC UK Economic Forecast Q PAGE 11 OF 14

12 Inflation and labour costs Annual consumer price inflation (CPI) was 1.6% in July 2014, down from 1.9% in June Annual CPI inflation has been below the 2% target in each month since January Annual retail price inflation (RPI) was 2.5% in July 2014, down from 2.6% in June Having reached a peak of 5.2% in September 2011, CPI annual inflation has recorded large net falls in recent years. Our forecast is that CPI annual inflation will remain relatively stable over the next 2-3 years, staying most of the time slightly below to its 2% target. Global energy and commodity prices are likely to remain relatively subdued, sterling is likely to weaken very modestly, and rises in real earnings will broadly match productivity growth. In annual average terms, we are forecasting annual CPI inflation at 1.8% in 2014, 1.9% in 2015 and 2.0% in In Q2 we predicted 1.9% in 2014, 2.0% in 2015, and 2.1% in For annual average RPI inflation we are now predicting 2.7% in 2014, 3.0% in 2015 and 3.5% in In Q2 we predicted 2.8% in 2014, 3.0% in 2015 and 3.3% in Table 5 summarises our specific forecasts for CPI & RPI inflation. Table 5: UK Annual Inflation, % Change Year on Year CPI 4.5% 2.8% 2.6% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% RPI-All Items 5.2% 3.2% 3.0% 2.7% 3.0% 3.5% Annual growth in total pay (average earnings including bonuses) was -0.2% in the three months to June 2014, compared with 0.4% in the three months to May 2014, and 1.9% in the three months to March Annual growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 0.6% in the three months to June 2014, compared with 0.7% in the three months to May 2014, and 1.3% in the three months to March Looking forward, we expect earnings growth to edge up slowly in the next few years, in line with higher productivity and stronger economic activity. Annual growth in pay will move above inflation from Q onwards. Our forecast assumes that total earnings growth (total pay including bonuses) will average 1.5% in 2014, 2.9% in 2015 and 3.5% in BCC UK Economic Forecast Q PAGE 12 OF 14

13 UK public finances In 2013/14, underlying public sector net borrowing (excluding temporary effects of financial interventions, excluding the effects of the transfer of the Royal Mail Pension Plan, and excluding the transfers from the Bank of England Asset Purchase Facility Fund) was billion, 6.5% of GDP and 9.3bn less than in 2012/13. Public sector net debt excluding temporary effects of financial interventions (PSND-ex) was 1,299.4 billion at the end of July 2014, equivalent to 76.5% of gross domestic product GDP. Eliminating the structural budget deficit remains a hard but necessary job. The OBR forecast, outlined at the time of the March 2014 Budget, is realistic in predicting steady falls in borrowing. But the OBR s timetable is slightly too ambitious in our view. While the OBR is forecasting that UK public sector net borrowing would move into a small surplus in 2018/19, our view is that achieving this aim this would take 1-2 years longer. In spite of continued GDP growth, the economy s capacity to generate tax receipts has been damaged considerably, and this would delay progress in cutting the deficit. Further cuts in current spending plans will be needed, at least until the end of the decade. Table 6 compares the BCC s PSNB forecasts, with the OBR s March 2014 forecasts. Table 6: Public Sector Net Borrowing (PSNB) BCC vs. OBR Forecasts Underlying PSNB-BCC forecast-finyears-%gdp 7.6% 7.3% 6.5% 5.8% 4.4% 3.1% Underlying PSNB-BCC forecast-fineyears- bn Underlying PSNB-OBR forecast-finyears-%gdp 7.9% 7.3% 6.6% 5.5% 4.2% 2.4% Underlying PSNB-OBR forecast-finyears- bn Note: Figures show underlying PSNB - excluding financial interventions, Royal Mail, and transfers from the Bank of England Asset Purchase Facility. Negative PSNB indicates surplus BCC UK Economic Forecast Q PAGE 13 OF 14

14 Policy issues The UK recovery is now gathering momentum. But growth is not sufficiently balanced. The recovery is not relying enough on net exports and investment. The messages in this forecast are positive overall, with upward revisions in GDP growth and employment. But many risks persist. There is progress towards rebalancing but it is too slow. While the trade balance is slowly improving, the current account deficit has worsened sharply, as the income balance that is traditionally in surplus has moved into large deficit. Businesses will face political uncertainties in the next few years: the Scottish referendum in September, the 2015 General Election, and a possible in/out EU referendum before To sustain growth, we need consensus across the political spectrum over measures that will enable business to plan and invest whatever the outcome of the various votes. The MPC must reassure businesses that, when official rates start rising, increases would be modest and gradual, so that unwelcome surprises are avoided. Even with greater clarity over policy, growth is likely to slow markedly after mid-2015, as higher interest rates put pressure on the finances of indebted households. With the right policies, business will still be able to drive recovery forward, albeit at a more modest pace. Contact details David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC BCC UK Economic Forecast Q PAGE 14 OF 14

UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015

UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015 UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and to

More information

INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 4 th February 2016. Opening remarks by the Governor

INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 4 th February 2016. Opening remarks by the Governor INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE Thursday 4 th February 2016 Opening remarks by the Governor Good afternoon. At its meeting yesterday, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 9-0 to maintain Bank Rate

More information

Economic Review, April 2012

Economic Review, April 2012 Economic Review, April 2012 Author Name(s): Malindi Myers, Office for National Statistics Abstract This note provides some wider economic analysis to support the Statistical Bulletin relating to the latest

More information

UK Economic Outlook. July 2015. UK housing market outlook: the continuing rise of Generation Rent

UK Economic Outlook. July 2015. UK housing market outlook: the continuing rise of Generation Rent July 2015 UK Economic Outlook UK housing market outlook: the continuing rise of Generation Rent Does trade hold the key to the UK services productivity puzzle? Visit our blog for periodic updates at: pwc.blogs.com/economics_in_business

More information

Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation

Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation August 2014 Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated to reflect the current economic outlook for factors that typically impact

More information

percentage points to the overall CPI outcome. Goods price inflation increased to 4,6

percentage points to the overall CPI outcome. Goods price inflation increased to 4,6 South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo on Delivery 28 January 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the

More information

Monthly Economic Dashboard

Monthly Economic Dashboard RETIREMENT INSTITUTE SM Economic perspective Monthly Economic Dashboard Modest acceleration in economic growth appears in store for 2016 as the inventory-caused soft patch ends, while monetary policy moves

More information

Statement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services

Statement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services For release at 8:30 a.m. EST February 10, 2016 Statement by Janet L. Yellen Chair Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before the Committee on Financial Services U.S. House of Representatives

More information

Agents summary of business conditions

Agents summary of business conditions Agents summary of business conditions February Consumer demand had continued to grow at a moderate pace. Housing market activity had remained subdued relative to levels in H. Investment intentions for

More information

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 1/ X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 10.1 Overview of World Economy Latest indicators are increasingly suggesting that the significant contraction in economic activity has come to an end, notably

More information

EAST AYRSHIRE COUNCIL CABINET 21 OCTOBER 2009 TREASURY MANAGEMENT ANNUAL REPORT FOR 2008/2009 AND UPDATE ON 2009/10 STRATEGY

EAST AYRSHIRE COUNCIL CABINET 21 OCTOBER 2009 TREASURY MANAGEMENT ANNUAL REPORT FOR 2008/2009 AND UPDATE ON 2009/10 STRATEGY EAST AYRSHIRE COUNCIL CABINET 21 OCTOBER 2009 TREASURY MANAGEMENT ANNUAL REPORT FOR 2008/2009 AND UPDATE ON 2009/10 STRATEGY Report by Executive Head of Finance and Asset Management 1 PURPOSE OF REPORT

More information

Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2013. German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy

Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2013. German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2013 German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy Press version Embargo until: Thursday, 18 April 2013, 11.00 a.m. CEST Joint Economic Forecast

More information

Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market

Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market Communications P.O. Box, CH-8022 Zurich Telephone +41 44 631 31 11 Fax +41 44 631 39 10 Zurich, 13 September 2007 Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market The

More information

Background. Key points

Background. Key points Background Employment forecasts over the three years to March 2018 1 are presented in this report. These employment forecasts will inform the Ministry s advice relating to immigration priorities, and priority

More information

South African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank

South African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 17 March 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the previous

More information

Project LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia

Project LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia Project LINK Meeting New York, - October 1 Country Report: Australia Prepared by Peter Brain: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, and Duncan Ironmonger: Department of Economics, University

More information

Meeting with Analysts

Meeting with Analysts CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report II/2015) Meeting with Analysts Petr Král Prague, 11 May, 2015 1 Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast

More information

2. UK Government debt and borrowing

2. UK Government debt and borrowing 2. UK Government debt and borrowing How well do you understand the current UK debt position and the options open to Government to reduce the deficit? This leaflet gives you a general background to the

More information

UK Economic Outlook. Will consumer spending growth continue to fuel the UK recovery? The future shape of UK exports. November 2015

UK Economic Outlook. Will consumer spending growth continue to fuel the UK recovery? The future shape of UK exports. November 2015 November 215 UK Economic Outlook Will consumer spending growth continue to fuel the UK recovery? The future shape of UK exports Visit our blog for periodic updates at: pwc.blogs.com/economics_in_business

More information

Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014

Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014 Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014 Xuesong Li Professor of Economics Deputy Director of Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Email: xsli@cass.org.cn

More information

London Market Snapshot October 2015 10/15

London Market Snapshot October 2015 10/15 London Market Snapshot October 2015 10/15 Global Macro Overview Global equities experienced their sharpest falls since 2011, with most major markets moving into correction territory (a fall of more than

More information

UK Macro Economic Forecast. Sample

UK Macro Economic Forecast. Sample UK Macro Economic Forecast CONTENTS 1. Summary Prospects Key Risks 2. Recent Trends PMI Services GDP % q-on-q 3. Two Year Outlook GDP % y-on-y Investment 4. Longer Term Outlook 5. Consumers Consumer spending

More information

The President s Report to the Board of Directors

The President s Report to the Board of Directors The President s Report to the Board of Directors May 5, 2015 CURRENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS - May 5, 2015 Data released since your last Directors' meeting show that economic growth continued to slow in

More information

EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA

EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA On the basis of the information available up to 22 May 2009, Eurosystem staff have prepared projections for macroeconomic developments in the

More information

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation Main Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation 02 NOVEMBER 201 NAOKO ISHIHARA ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-(0)20-777-2179 E naoko.ishihara@uk.mufg.jp Overview The Bank of

More information

PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT

PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT PENSIONS INVESTMENTS LIFE INSURANCE PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT FOR PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT () PRODUCTS WITH AN ANNUAL FUND MANAGEMENT CHARGE OF 1% - JULY 201 Thank

More information

Explanation beyond exchange rates: trends in UK trade since 2007

Explanation beyond exchange rates: trends in UK trade since 2007 Explanation beyond exchange rates: trends in UK trade since 2007 Author Name(s): Michael Hardie, Andrew Jowett, Tim Marshall & Philip Wales, Office for National Statistics Abstract The UK s trade performance

More information

Labour market outlook, spring 2015 SUMMARY

Labour market outlook, spring 2015 SUMMARY Labour market outlook, spring 2015 SUMMARY Ura 2015:4 Labour market outlook Spring 2015 Summary The next few years will be characterised both by continued improvements in job growth and more people entering

More information

July 2014. UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets Review: July 2014 1

July 2014. UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets Review: July 2014 1 July 2014 UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets Review: July 2014 1 UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets Review: July 2014 2 UK COMMERCIAL & RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKETS REVIEW: JULY 2014

More information

Economic Review, November 2013

Economic Review, November 2013 Economic Review, November 2013 Author Name(s): Philip Wales, Office for National Statistics Abstract This note draws together key economic stories from National Statistics produced over the latest month.

More information

Chapter 2: The public finances under Labour

Chapter 2: The public finances under Labour 1. Summary Chapter 2: The public finances under Labour The evolution of the public finances since 1997 mirrors the first 12 years of Conservative governments after 1979: three years of impressive fiscal

More information

Meeting with Analysts

Meeting with Analysts CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report IV/) Meeting with Analysts Tibor Hlédik Prague, 7 November, Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast

More information

DEUTSCHE ASSET & WEALTH MANAGEMENT REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK

DEUTSCHE ASSET & WEALTH MANAGEMENT REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK Research Report DEUTSCHE ASSET & WEALTH MANAGEMENT REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK Second Quarter 2013 Economic Outlook Business and consumer spending to drive recovery Quantitative easing beginning its expected unwinding

More information

GDP growth to remain weak as the UK economy rebalances

GDP growth to remain weak as the UK economy rebalances www.davy.ie Bloomberg: DAVY Research: +353 1 6148997 Institutional Equity Sales: +353 1 6792816 Davy Research October 18, 211 Conall Mac Coille, Chief economist conall.maccoille@davy.ie / +353 1 6148997

More information

South African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank

South African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo Delivery 21 July 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank The UK vote to

More information

Agents summary of business conditions

Agents summary of business conditions Agents summary of business conditions July Annual growth in the value of retail sales and consumer services had risen slightly over the first six months of the year, but remained modest. Activity in the

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 213 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Finland

More information

2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013

2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 U.S. stock market performance in 2012 * +12.59% total return +6.35%

More information

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org Weak First Quarter, But Growth Expected to Recover MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: May 2015 Broad economic growth in the US got off to a slow

More information

OVERVIEW. A cyclical upswing is underway favoured by several temporary tailwinds

OVERVIEW. A cyclical upswing is underway favoured by several temporary tailwinds OVERVIEW A cyclical upswing is underway favoured by several temporary tailwinds whose strength underpins an upward revision to the growth forecast this year The outlook for economic growth in the EU has

More information

FSB Voice of Small Business Index. Quarter 2, 2014

FSB Voice of Small Business Index. Quarter 2, 2014 FSB Voice of Small Business Index Quarter 2, 2014 FSB Voice of Small Business Index 2014 Contents Q2 snapshot 3 FSB National Chairman 4 Economist s view 5 Regional Small Business Indices 9 Sector Small

More information

Sustaining the recovery

Sustaining the recovery Sustaining the recovery Speech given by Charlie Bean, Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy, Bank of England North East Chamber of Commerce President s Club Talk, Rockcliffe Hall Hotel, Darlington 10 March

More information

CANADA AND U.S. AUTO SALES: ROOM FOR FUR- THER GROWTH? October 2014. Factors supporting the U.S. sales outlook: Employment Growth

CANADA AND U.S. AUTO SALES: ROOM FOR FUR- THER GROWTH? October 2014. Factors supporting the U.S. sales outlook: Employment Growth 93619 CANADA AND U.S. AUTO SALES: ROOM FOR FUR- THER GROWTH? October 2014 Canadian and U.S. auto sales have strengthened significantly from recession lows. Canadian new motor vehicle sales have surprised

More information

PROJECTION OF THE FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT (2012 2027) - SUMMARY

PROJECTION OF THE FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT (2012 2027) - SUMMARY PROJECTION OF THE FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT (2012 2027) - SUMMARY PUBLIC FINANCE REVIEW February 2013 SUMMARY Key messages The purpose of our analysis is to highlight the risks that fiscal policy

More information

MINUTES OF MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE MEETING 1 AND 2 AUGUST 2007

MINUTES OF MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE MEETING 1 AND 2 AUGUST 2007 Publication date: 15 August 2007 MINUTES OF MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE MEETING 1 AND 2 AUGUST 2007 These are the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on 1 & 2 August 2007. They are also

More information

Statement to Parliamentary Committee

Statement to Parliamentary Committee Statement to Parliamentary Committee Opening Remarks by Mr Glenn Stevens, Governor, in testimony to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, Sydney, 14 August 2009. The Bank s Statement

More information

TREASURY MANAGEMENT UPDATE QUARTER 4 2014/15

TREASURY MANAGEMENT UPDATE QUARTER 4 2014/15 Committee and Date Cabinet 10 June 2015 12.30 pm Item 9 Public TREASURY MANAGEMENT UPDATE QUARTER 4 2014/15 Responsible Officer James Walton e-mail: james.walton@shropshire.gov.uk Tel: (01743) 255011 1.

More information

LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST. U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate. Chart 1. Growth Rate of U.S.

LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST. U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate. Chart 1. Growth Rate of U.S. CENTER FOR BUSINESS & ECONOMIC RESEARCH LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST O U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate ver the past few years, U.S. economic activity has remained

More information

3 Bank lending and the recovery

3 Bank lending and the recovery 3 Bank lending and the recovery Introduction The role of banks as suppliers of credit to the economy has been highly scrutinised during the recession. A key question has been whether constrained bank lending

More information

Svein Gjedrem: Prospects for the Norwegian economy

Svein Gjedrem: Prospects for the Norwegian economy Svein Gjedrem: Prospects for the Norwegian economy Speech by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at Sparebank 1 SR-Bank Stavanger, Stavanger, 26 March 2010. The text below

More information

Introduction B.2 & B.3 111

Introduction B.2 & B.3 111 Risks and Scenarios Introduction The forecasts presented in the Economic and Tax Outlook chapter incorporate a number of judgements about how both the New Zealand and the world economies evolve. Some judgements

More information

THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY

THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY CARLY HARRISON Portland State University Following data revisions, the economy continues to grow steadily, but slowly, in line with expectations. Gross domestic product has increased,

More information

Adjusting to a Changing Economic World. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. It s a pleasure to be with you here in Montréal today.

Adjusting to a Changing Economic World. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. It s a pleasure to be with you here in Montréal today. Remarks by David Dodge Governor of the Bank of Canada to the Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal Montréal, Quebec 11 February 2004 Adjusting to a Changing Economic World Good afternoon, ladies and

More information

South African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank

South African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo Delivery 19 May 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South Africa s

More information

Jarle Bergo: Monetary policy and the outlook for the Norwegian economy

Jarle Bergo: Monetary policy and the outlook for the Norwegian economy Jarle Bergo: Monetary policy and the outlook for the Norwegian economy Speech by Mr Jarle Bergo, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank, at the Capital markets seminar, hosted by Terra-Gruppen AS, Gardermoen,

More information

UK Economic Outlook. The UK economic recovery: Better balanced than you might think Which industries will drive future jobs growth in the UK?

UK Economic Outlook. The UK economic recovery: Better balanced than you might think Which industries will drive future jobs growth in the UK? March 2016 UK Economic Outlook The UK economic recovery: Better balanced than you might think Which industries will drive future jobs growth in the UK? Visit our blog for periodic updates at: pwc.blogs.com/economics_in_business

More information

Recent Developments in Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy

Recent Developments in Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy June 23, 2016 Bank of Japan Recent Developments in Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy Speech at a Meeting with Business Leaders in Ishikawa Takahide Kiuchi Member of the Policy Board (English

More information

Impact of the recession

Impact of the recession Regional Trends 43 21/11 Impact of the recession By Cecilia Campos, Alistair Dent, Robert Fry and Alice Reid, Office for National Statistics Abstract This report looks at the impact that the most recent

More information

5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis

5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis 5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis 5.1 Comparison with the Previous Macroeconomic Scenario The differences between the macroeconomic scenarios of the current

More information

GENERAL FUND REVENUE REPORT & ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. January 2013 Barry Boardman, Ph.D. Fiscal Research Division North Carolina General Assembly

GENERAL FUND REVENUE REPORT & ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. January 2013 Barry Boardman, Ph.D. Fiscal Research Division North Carolina General Assembly GENERAL FUND REVENUE REPORT & ECONOMIC OUTLOOK January 2013 Barry Boardman, Ph.D. Fiscal Research Division North Carolina General Assembly Highlights General Fund revenue through December is $6.5 million

More information

Logo and tagline. 2014 Investment Shareholders Update. meridiancu.ca 1-866-592-2226. Dear Shareholder,

Logo and tagline. 2014 Investment Shareholders Update. meridiancu.ca 1-866-592-2226. Dear Shareholder, 2014 Investment Shareholders Update Dear Shareholder, As we look back on the first half of 2014, I m happy to report that Meridian s continued focus on serving and meeting the needs of our Members while

More information

DTZ Foresight UK Fair Value Q2 2011 Widening yield gap raises scores

DTZ Foresight UK Fair Value Q2 2011 Widening yield gap raises scores DTZ Foresight UK Fair Value Q2 Widening yield gap raises scores 23 August Contents Overview 1 Fair Value Index 2 UK market classifications 4 UK versus global forecasts 5 Office market forecasts 6 Retail

More information

Chapter 1: Economic commentary

Chapter 1: Economic commentary Compendium: Chapter 1: Economic commentary This section of the Pink Book provides an examination of recent trends, main movements and international comparisons for a range of information contained in subsequent

More information

6. Economic Outlook. The International Economy. Graph 6.1. Graph 6.2 Terms of Trade 2010/11 average = 100

6. Economic Outlook. The International Economy. Graph 6.1. Graph 6.2 Terms of Trade 2010/11 average = 100 6. Economic Outlook 6 4 0 - The International Economy The Bank s forecast for overall growth of Australia s major trading partners is little changed from those in the November Statement. Year-average trading

More information

6. Economic Outlook. The International Economy. Graph 6.1 Australia s Trading Partner Growth* Year-average RBA forecast

6. Economic Outlook. The International Economy. Graph 6.1 Australia s Trading Partner Growth* Year-average RBA forecast 6. Economic Outlook The International Economy Overall, growth of Australia s major trading partners (MTPs) is expected to be a bit above its long-run average in 014 and 015 (Graph 6.1). Forecasts for most

More information

THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF FINLAND 1990-1993: causes and consequences. Jaakko Kiander Labour Institute for Economic Research

THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF FINLAND 1990-1993: causes and consequences. Jaakko Kiander Labour Institute for Economic Research THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF FINLAND 1990-1993: causes and consequences Jaakko Kiander Labour Institute for Economic Research CONTENTS Causes background The crisis Consequences Role of economic policy Banking

More information

Economic Snapshot for February 2013

Economic Snapshot for February 2013 Economic Snapshot for February 2013 Christian E. Weller on the State of the Economy Christian E. Weller, associate professor, Department of Public Policy and Public Affairs, University of Massachusetts

More information

The National Business Survey National Report November 2009 Results

The National Business Survey National Report November 2009 Results The National Business Survey National Report November 2009 Results 1 Executive Summary (1) 2 NBS results from November 2009 demonstrate the continued challenging conditions faced by businesses in England

More information

Growth holds steady while tender prices continue to rise above inflation

Growth holds steady while tender prices continue to rise above inflation April 2015 Growth holds steady while tender prices continue to rise above inflation Tender Cost Update UK Trend towards risk aversion grows in regional locations and procurement choices become more critical

More information

Explaining Russia s New Normal

Explaining Russia s New Normal Explaining Russia s New Normal Chris Weafer of Macro-Advisory This Op- Ed appeared on BNE.eu on September 11 2015 One of the slogans now regularly deployed to describe Russia s current economic condition

More information

THE POTENTIAL MACROECONOMIC EFFECT OF DEBT CEILING BRINKMANSHIP

THE POTENTIAL MACROECONOMIC EFFECT OF DEBT CEILING BRINKMANSHIP OCTOBER 2013 THE POTENTIAL MACROECONOMIC EFFECT OF DEBT CEILING BRINKMANSHIP Introduction The United States has never defaulted on its obligations, and the U. S. dollar and Treasury securities are at the

More information

UK Economic Outlook. March 2015. The impact of lower oil prices on the UK economy

UK Economic Outlook. March 2015. The impact of lower oil prices on the UK economy March 2015 UK Economic Outlook The impact of lower oil prices on the UK economy New job creation in the UK: which regions will benefit most from the digital revolution? www.pwc.co.uk/economics Contents

More information

Underutilization in U.S. Labor Markets

Underutilization in U.S. Labor Markets EMBARGOED UNTIL Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 5:45 PM Eastern Time OR UPON DELIVERY Underutilization in U.S. Labor Markets Eric S. Rosengren President & Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of

More information

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. Russian Federation Concluding Statement for the 2012 Article IV Consultation Mission. Moscow, June 13, 2012

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. Russian Federation Concluding Statement for the 2012 Article IV Consultation Mission. Moscow, June 13, 2012 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Russian Federation Concluding Statement for the 2012 Article IV Consultation Mission Moscow, June 13, 2012 The Russian economy has recovered from the 2008-09 crisis and is now

More information

Key themes from Treasury s Business Liaison Program

Key themes from Treasury s Business Liaison Program Key themes from Treasury s Business Liaison Program 73 Introduction As part of Treasury s Business Liaison Program, staff met with around 25 businesses and a number of industry and government organisations

More information

Massachusetts Department of Revenue. Briefing Book FY2015 Consensus Revenue Estimate Hearing. December 11, 2013. Presented by: Amy Pitter COMMISSIONER

Massachusetts Department of Revenue. Briefing Book FY2015 Consensus Revenue Estimate Hearing. December 11, 2013. Presented by: Amy Pitter COMMISSIONER Massachusetts Department of Revenue Briefing Book FY2015 Consensus Revenue Estimate Hearing December 11, 2013 Presented by: Amy Pitter COMMISSIONER Kazim P. Ozyurt DIRECTOR OFFICE OF TAX POLICY ANALYSIS

More information

THE RETURN OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURE OR CAPEX CYCLE IN MALAYSIA

THE RETURN OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURE OR CAPEX CYCLE IN MALAYSIA PUBLIC BANK BERHAD ECONOMICS DIVISION MENARA PUBLIC BANK 146 JALAN AMPANG 50450 KUALA LUMPUR TEL : 03 2176 6000/666 FAX : 03 2163 9929 Public Bank Economic Review is published bi monthly by Economics Division,

More information

Agents summary of business conditions

Agents summary of business conditions Agents summary of business conditions April Consumer demand had continued to grow moderately. Housing market transactions had picked up modestly since the start of the year, but were lower than a year

More information

Monetary Policy Report

Monetary Policy Report Monetary Policy Report February 15 S V E R I G E S R I K S B A N K Correction 15--13 Two figures on page 3 were switched around in the previous version of the report. This meant that references to Figures

More information

CBI Yorkshire and Humber Annual Dinner

CBI Yorkshire and Humber Annual Dinner 1 CBI Yorkshire and Humber Annual Dinner Speech given by Kate Barker, Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England At Bradford City Football Club 28 April 2004 I am extremely grateful to Rebecca

More information

Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 3 February 2016

Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 3 February 2016 Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 3 February 2016 Publication date: 4 February 2016 These are the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending

More information

Naturally, these difficult external conditions have affected the Mexican economy. I would stress in particular three developments in this regard:

Naturally, these difficult external conditions have affected the Mexican economy. I would stress in particular three developments in this regard: REMARKS BY MR. JAVIER GUZMÁN CALAFELL, DEPUTY GOVERNOR AT THE BANCO DE MÉXICO, ON THE MEXICAN ECONOMY IN AN ADVERSE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT: CHALLENGES AND POLICY RESPONSE, SANTANDER MEXICO DAY 2016, Mexico

More information

The Macroeconomic Situation and Monetary Policy in Russia. Ladies and Gentlemen,

The Macroeconomic Situation and Monetary Policy in Russia. Ladies and Gentlemen, The Money and Banking Conference Monetary Policy under Uncertainty Dr. Sergey Ignatiev Chairman of the Bank of Russia (The 4 th of June 2007, Central Bank of Argentina, Buenos Aires) The Macroeconomic

More information

6. Economic Outlook. The International Economy. Graph 6.1 Australia s Trading Partner Growth* Year-average RBA forecast

6. Economic Outlook. The International Economy. Graph 6.1 Australia s Trading Partner Growth* Year-average RBA forecast 6. Economic Outlook 6 4 0 The International Economy Overall, growth of Australia s major trading partners (MTPs) is expected to be around its long-run average pace in 015 and 016 (Graph 6.1). This forecast

More information

Markit Global Business Outlook Survey

Markit Global Business Outlook Survey News Release EMBARGOED UNTIL: 00:01 (UK), 14 July 2014 Markit Global Business Outlook Survey Worldwide business confidence wanes Global optimism slips from two-year high Waning confidence centred on eurozone

More information

An outlook on the Spanish economy Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), London

An outlook on the Spanish economy Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), London 09.02.2016 An outlook on the Spanish economy Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), London Luis M. Linde Governor I would like to thank OMFIF and Mr. David Marsh for the invitation

More information

Jobs Fair 2013 Thursday 12 th September WCC is bringing back its hugely successful jobs fair at the Guildhall. We had 2000 people looking for jobs or changes in career at the last one so if you are looking

More information

UNITED KINGDOM. United Kingdom

UNITED KINGDOM. United Kingdom UNITED KINGDOM Growth has slowed, and is projected to be 1¾ per cent in 216. Uncertainty about the outcome of the end-june 216 referendum, which could lead to an exit of the United Kingdom from the European

More information

Quantitative easing explained. Putting more money into our economy to boost spending

Quantitative easing explained. Putting more money into our economy to boost spending Quantitative easing explained Putting more money into our economy to boost spending 2% INFLATION TARGET 1 2 Stable inflation promotes a healthy economy 14 UK money spending 12 Low and stable inflation

More information

SEPTEMBER 2015 ECB STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA 1

SEPTEMBER 2015 ECB STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA 1 SEPTEMBER 2015 STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA 1 1. EURO AREA OUTLOOK: OVERVIEW AND KEY FEATURES The recovery in activity in the euro area is expected to continue, albeit at a somewhat

More information

Contents. Key points from the 2014 Q4 Survey 4. General economic environment 5. Market conditions and the economy 6. Cash flow and risk 9 M&A 11

Contents. Key points from the 2014 Q4 Survey 4. General economic environment 5. Market conditions and the economy 6. Cash flow and risk 9 M&A 11 The Deloitte CFO Survey 2014 Q4 Results 2 Contents Key points from the 2014 Q4 Survey 4 General economic environment 5 Market conditions and the economy 6 Cash flow and risk 9 M&A 11 A note on methodology

More information

Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014

Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014 Ministry of Finance Chief Economist - Research, State Revenue and International Affairs June 2013 Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014

More information

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014 EFN REPORT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014 Summer 2013 1 About the European Forecasting Network The European Forecasting Network (EFN) is a research group of European institutions,

More information

Monetary policy summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 6 October 2015

Monetary policy summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 6 October 2015 Monetary policy summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 6 October 2015 Publication date: 8 October 2015 These are the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending

More information

Hungary s GDP growth among EU top five in Q1 2015

Hungary s GDP growth among EU top five in Q1 2015 Hungary s GDP growth among EU top five in Q1 2015 According to seasonally adjusted GDP data published in the latest Eurostat flash report, in Q1 2015 gross domestic product grew by 0.4 percent in the Euro-zone

More information

Svein Gjedrem: The economic outlook and monetary policy

Svein Gjedrem: The economic outlook and monetary policy Svein Gjedrem: The economic outlook and monetary policy Speech by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at SR-banken, Stavanger, 18 March 2005. The speech is based on the

More information

NFIB SMALL BUSINESS. William C. Dunkelberg Holly Wade SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX COMPONENTS. Seasonally Adjusted Level

NFIB SMALL BUSINESS. William C. Dunkelberg Holly Wade SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX COMPONENTS. Seasonally Adjusted Level NFIB SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMIC TRENDS William C. Dunkelberg Holly Wade May 215 Based on a Survey of Small and Independent Business Owners SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX COMPONENTS Index Component Seasonally

More information

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW MAY 20 Koç Holding CONTENTS Global Economy... 3 Global Financial Markets... 3 Global Economic Growth Forecasts... 3 Turkey Macroeconomic Indicators... Economic Growth... Industrial

More information

Strategy Document 1/03

Strategy Document 1/03 Strategy Document / Monetary policy in the period 5 March to 5 June Discussed by the Executive Board at its meeting of 5 February. Approved by the Executive Board at its meeting of 5 March Background Norges

More information

Preliminary Investment Trends Report

Preliminary Investment Trends Report Preliminary Investment Trends Report ONTARIO: 215 224 Investment in Ontario s construction industry grows over the medium term in line with a number of proposed major resource development, electric utilities

More information