Investment Symposium March 14-15, 2013 New York, NY. Session E5, U.S. Economic Conditions and the Housing/Mortgage Market

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1 Investment Symposium March 1-15, 213 New York, NY Session E5, U.S. Economic Conditions and the Housing/Mortgage Market Moderator: Jonathan Glowacki Presenter: David Berson

2 Housing & Mortgage Market Outlook 213 Investment Symposium David Berson, SVP & Chief Economist Nationwide Economics March 15, 213 Executive Summary Housing demand is being fueled by stable job growth, record-low mortgage rates, a pickup in house prices, and stronger household formations. Most of these should persist in 213 (mortgage rates may rise, but probably only modestly), increasing the demand for homes. Near-record lows for homes for sale are leading to strong house price gains in many areas which should lead to an increase in homes on the market, and thus moderate price gains as the year progresses. Refinance activity (coming mostly from ongoing declines in mortgage rates, but augmented by government refinance programs) has dominated the mortgage market in recent years. Despite the pickup in home sales, purchase applications and originations have risen just a tad over the past year suggesting that all-cash purchases have been strong. Extremely tight mortgage lending standards continue to hold home sales back, and this is unlikely to change much in 213. CoreLogic estimates that 6 percent of the 2 originations vintage would not comply with the new QM and likely QRM regulations. Mortgage originations likely peaked in 2, driven upward by continued strong refinance activity. Unless mortgage rates fall further in 213 (unlikely), refinance originations should fall (unless new government refinance programs offset this). On the other hand, further gains in home sales and house prices should lead to an increase in purchase volumes but continued tough lending standards will limit the gain and keep the all-cash share of purchases high. Total originations are projected to decline in 213, as the rise in purchase volumes is unlikely to be sufficient to offset the drop in refinancings. Originations are expected to fall further in 21, as another drop in refinancings more than offsets a rise in purchase originations. March 15,

3 Real GDP growth remains below trend Annualized growth rate th Quarter Change Annual Rate % -5 3% long-term average Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis / Haver Analytics; Shaded area depicts recessionary period March 15, Job gains are steady, but are still below average Employment growth & the unemployment rate January Thousands Change in nonfarm payroll employment Civilian unemployment rate, 16 years Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics / Haver Analytics; Shaded area depicts recessionary period March 15,

4 Household growth has accelerated from Great Recession lows Total number of households Through % Change Y/Y Long-term average ( ) Long-term average (191-2) Source: Census Bureau / Haver Analytics March 15, 213 Mortgage rates remain near record lows Contract rates on commitments: conventional 3-yr mortgages January % current rate 75 9 Source: Freddie Mac/ Federal Reserve Board / Haver Analytics March 15,

5 Affordability is near all-time highs Composite housing affordability index December current value Source: National Association of Realtors / Haver Analytics March 15, Rental vacancy rates are down pushing asking rents up Rental vacancy rate: U.S. th Quarter 2.7% current rate Source: Census Bureau / Haver Analytics March 15, 213 7

6 Homeowner vacancy rates down close to historical averages (~1.6%) Homeowner vacancy rate: U.S. th Quarter % current rate Source: Census Bureau / Haver Analytics March 15, 213 These are clearly a major part of the hidden inventory now down to around 55, units U.S. vacant year-round housing units: held off market for other reasons th Quarter Thousands Trend projected to where it would be today Source: Census Bureau / Haver Analytics March 15,

7 Have homeownership rates finally stabilized? Homeownership rate th Quarter % current rate and long-term average Source: Census Bureau / Haver Analytics March 15, 213 Historically few homes for sale hold sales down and push prices up New 1-family houses for sale December (%) Percent Thousands Month s supply (L) Source: Census Bureau / Haver Analytics; Shaded area depicts recessionary period Total for sale (R) March 15,

8 Historically few homes for sale hold sales down and push prices up Existing 1-family homes for sale January Supply of single family homes on the market; U.S. (L) Single family homes available for sale at end of period (R) 32 2 Months 2 Units Source: National Association of Realtors / Haver Analytics March 15, 213 Demographically-adjusted homes for sale well-below average Existing homes for sale relative to number of households th Quarter 2 Source: Haver Analytics March 15,

9 Demographically-adjusted homes for sale at all-time lows New homes for sale relative to number of households th Quarter 2 Source: Haver Analytics March 15, The number of distressed mortgages is falling steadily, but still high Mortgages 3 rd Quarter 2 16% 1% % % % 6% % 2% % Mortgage Payments Past Due 3-59 Days Mortgage Payments Past Due 6-9 Days Mortgage Payments Past Due 9+ Days Mortgage Foreclosure Inventory Source: MBA / Haver Analytics March 15,

10 Foreclosure rate falling rapidly now Homes foreclosed: U.S. December 2 Per, Homes Source: Zillow.com / Haver Analytics March 15, Strong housing demand + fewer homes for sale = strong price gains CoreLogic national house price index December 2 January 2 = % Change Y/Y long-term average Source: CoreLogic / Haver Analytics March 15,

11 Viewed over a long time frame, recent home price gains around average Nominal home price index 3 rd Quarter 2 1 st Quarter 2 = long-term average Source: Robert Shiller / Haver Analytics March 15, Viewed over a long time frame, recent inflation-adjusted home price gains slightly above average Real home price index 3 rd Quarter 2 19 = long-term average Source: Robert Shiller / Haver Analytics March 15,

12 Fewer underwater homes should allow a further shift from distressed sales to regular sales Single family homes with mortgages in negative equity: U.S. 3 rd Quarter Source: Zillow.com / Haver Analytics March 15, Purchase applications remain weak despite a pickup in sales rising share of all-cash purchases MBA Volume index: mortgage loan applications for purchase February 15, 213 March 16, 199 = Source: Mortgage Bankers Association / Haver Analytics March 15,

13 Refinance activity has depended upon continuing drops in mortgage rates Contract rates + MBA Refinance loans: shares of number of loan applications January Contract rates on Commitments: Conventional 3-year mortgages (L) 1.5 MBA Refinance Loans: Share of Number of Loan Applications (R) % Change Y/Y Source: MBA / FRB / Haver Analytics March 15, Refinance volumes continue to be strong with low, and falling, mortgage rates + government refinancing programs (HARP, etc.) MBA Volume index: mortgage loan applications for refinancing February 15, 213 March 16, 199 = Source: Mortgage Bankers Association / Haver Analytics March 15,

14 Refinance originations at their peak purchases about to climb? Mortgage originations: 1- family, refinance share 3 rd Quarter 2 1, 1,2 1, $Billions Mortgage Originations: 1- Family: Purchase Mortgage Originations: 1- Family: Refinance Source: Mortgage Bankers Association / Haver Analytics March 15, Refinance share should begin to fall soon Mortgage originations: 1- family, refinance share 3 rd Quarter Source: Mortgage Bankers Association / Haver Analytics March 15,

15 ARM share remains low as jumbo market is small and FRM rates low MBA ARMs: share of number of loan applications 3 rd Quarter Source: Mortgage Bankers Association / Haver Analytics March 15, Banks still extraordinarily tight on lending standards will QM and QRM help or hurt? FRB Sr loan survey: Residential mortgages, net share, banks tightening 1 st Quarter Source: Federal Reserve Board / Haver Analytics March 15,

16 Mortgage originations expected to decline but stronger purchases help Mortgage originations forecast March 213 In Billions Actual Estimate Nationwide Forecast Purchase $53 $5 $5 $6 $72 Refinance $1,16 $931 $1,277 $96 $ Total $1,69 $1,36 $1,79 $1,6 $1,2 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association / Haver Analytics / Nationwide Economics March 15, Important Disclosure This material is general in nature. It is not intended as investment or economic advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Additionally, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, tax and financial condition or particular needs of any specific person. We encourage you to seek the advice of an investment professional who can tailor a financial plan to meet your specific needs. The economic and market forecasts in this report reflect our opinion as of the date of this presentation/review and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts show a broad range of possible outcomes. Because they are subject to high levels of uncertainty, they may not reflect actual performance. Case studies and examples are for illustrative purposes only. We obtained certain information from sources deemed reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness. Nationwide, Nationwide Financial, the Nationwide framemark and On Your Side are service marks of Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company. March 15,

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