HOUSING PROFILE. Housing + Real Estate + Home Building. A Marketplace Snapshot. for Greenville, Pickens, and Laurens counties, South Carolina

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1 HOUSING PROFILE A Marketplace Snapshot Housing + Real Estate + Home Building for Greenville, Pickens, and Laurens counties, South Carolina Produced by: Home Builders Association of Greenville Greater Greenville Association of REALTORS Sales and Marketing Council of the Upstate Upstate Mortgage Lenders Association Presented by:

2 WELCOME Welcome to the Upstate Housing Market Forecast. We are happy to have, as our guest speaker, Dr. David Crowe, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, National Association of Home Builders. We are excited about the development of this annual event. Each of our associations has independently produced economic briefings each year. This year, for the first time, the Home Builders Association, the Greater Greenville Association of REALTORS, the Sales and Marketing Council of the Upstate, and the Upstate Mortgage LendersAssociation have partnered to produce a single annual event. The document you are reading is a compilation of important information about the Greater Greenville Housing and Real Estate Market. We are interested in your feedback on information you would like to have from us in the future. We also would like to thank our Presenting Sponsor, The Greenville News, for their generous support of our program. Susan Vernon, President Home Builders Association of Greenville Matthew Thrift, President Greater Greenville Association of REALTORS Wendy Miller, President Upstate Mortgage Lenders Association Gary Cohen, Chairman Sales and Marketing Council of the Upstate About Dr. David Crowe Dr. Crowe is responsible for the National Association of Home Builders forecast of housing and economic trends, survey research and analysis of the home building industry and consumer preferences as well as microeconomic analysis of government policies that affect housing. Before becoming NAHB s Chief Economist, Dr. Crowe was NAHB s Senior Vice President for Regulatory and Housing Policy. Prior to joining NAHB, Dr. Crowe was Deputy Director of the Division of Housing and Demographic Analysis at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. He has served on federal advisory committees to the Census Bureau and to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Dr. Crowe holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Kentucky.

3 OUR COMMUNITY Greater Greenville Market Our study area, Greater Greenville, includes Greenville, Pickens, and Laurens counties. We have gathered data, in one place, that is most commonly requested by our members. Population: 653,498 ( Greenville, Pickens, and Laurens counties) Real Metro GDP: $28.3 billion Per Capita Income: $35,700 (2012) The U.S. Census Bureau provides all Americans with excellent data about our community. In this report we have shown data that provides information about the quality of life in our Greater Greenville community. Population Density The number of people per unit of land. = 1000 people per square mile Greater Greenville Cost of Living Index Measures relative price levels for consumer goods and services. U.S.=100 Greater Greenville 90.3 Raleigh, NC 98.2 Charleston, SC 98.3 Charleston, SC 1,101.9 Raleigh, NC 2,896.3 Housing Density The number of homes per unit of land. = 500 housing units per square mile Raleigh, NC 1,232.5 Greater Greenville 1,026.1 Transit Usage and Stops In the U.S. 69% of residents live near a transit stop, but only 30% of jobs in the country are reachable by transit. Residents Near Transit Greater Greenville 28% Raleigh, NC 46% Charleston, SC 61% Jobs Reachable by Transit Greater Greenville 29% Raleigh, NC 30% Charleston, SC 27% Average Travel Time to Work U.S. Average: 25.4 minutes Charleston, SC Greater Greenville Raleigh, NC Charleston, SC 17.7 minutes 21.4 minutes 21.0 minutes

4 HOUSING MARKET SNAPSHOT Our study area, Greater Greenville, includes Greenville, Pickens, and Laurens counties. We have gathered data, in one place, that is most commonly requested by our members. Housing Units By the Numbers Number of Units/Type 1*: 188,940 (68.2%) 2-4: 12,765 (4.6%) 5 +: 37,099 (13.4%) Mobile Home: 38,454 (13.9%) *includes attached & detached Year Built Since 2000: 53,200 (19.2%) : 172,026 (62.1%) Prior to 1960: 52,101 (18.8%) $500,000-$999,999 5,892 (3.5%) $200,000-$499,999 40,315 (24.2%) $100,000-$199,000 65,661 (39.5%) Number of Rooms 1-5: 130,694 (47.2%) 6-8: 115,272 (41.5%) 9+: 31,361 (11.3%) Number of Bedrooms 0-2: 96,825 (35%) 3-4: 170,983 (61.7%) 5+: 9,519 (3.4%) Value of Owner-Occupied Units $1 million or more 1,707 (1%) Monthly Owner Costs Less than $100,000 52,928 (31.8%) 277,327 Total Housing Units $57,700 Median Income of Homeowner $142,200 Median Home Value 33,862 Vacant Housing Units 2.3% Homeowner Vacancy Rate 8.3% Rental Vacancy Rate Owner vs. Renter-Occupied Other Data Year Householder Move In Since 2000: 155,074 (63.7%) Prior to 2000: 88,392 (36.3%) Owner-Occupied: 166,503 (68.4%) Avg. Household Size: 2.6 Recurring Impacts of New Home Construction Renter-Occupied: 76,962 (31.6%) Avg. Household Size: 2.5 Homes with 3+ Vehicles 51,339 (21.1%) Sources of Heat Natural Gas: 90,641 (37.2%) LP Gas: 9,362 (3.8%) Electricity: 133,068 (54.7%) Other: 9,806 (4%) Owner-Occupied Housing Units With a Mortgage Without a Mortgage < $1,000/month 38,291 (35.5%) $1,000-$1,999/month 62,296 (50.5%) > $2,000/month 15,216 (14.1%) < $200/month 9,189 (15.8%) $200-$399/month 31,441 (53.9%) > $400/month 17,650 (30.3%) 58,280 (35%) Housing Units with No Mortgage 108,223 (65%) Housing Units with a Mortgage Occupied Units Paying Rent (Gross) > $500/month $500-$999/month > $1,000/month 12,201 (17.2%) 46,207 (65.3%) 12,309 (17.4%)

5 HOUSING + CONSTRUCTION In 2007 and 2008 the Home Builders Association of Greenville commissioned the Housing Economics Department of the National Association of Home Builders to conduct an analysis of the economic impact of Home Building in Greenville County on the Greater Greenville area. The study found a substantial impact and rapid contribution to the demands that the homes added have on the community s governments and infrastructure. Single-Family Homes Constructed Local Income Generated (millions) Taxes/Fees to Local Governments (millions) Local Jobs Created ,852 (-48%) $308.8 (-39%) $51.2 (-22%) 5,388 (-51%) 3,553 $507 $66 10, The additional, annually recurring impacts of building 1,852 single-family homes in Greenville County include: Greenville County Single-Family Recurring Impacts of New Home Construction $45.1 million in local income $12.3 million in taxes & other revenue for local governments 879 local jobs Single-Family Homes Constructed 532 (-46%) $9.3 (-12%) 990 $ Taxes/Fees to Local Governments (millions) Local Income Generated (millions) $68.4 (-45%) Local Jobs Created 1193 (-59%) $12 2, Greenville County Multi-Family The additional, annually recurring impacts of building 532 multi-family homes in Greenville County include: $13.9 million in local income $3.7 million in taxes & other revenues to local governments 234 local jobs Does growth and new construction pay for itself? Yes! For every 1,852 single-family and 532 multi-family homes built: Economic Impact Offsets All Fiscal Costs $2 Million+ in Net Income $25 Million+ in Net Income By the end of the first year after these new homes are built, economic impacts offset all fiscal costs of serving the new homes, including infrastructre costs. By the end of the second year, these new homes are contributing net income to local governments of more than $2 million per year. After 10 years, these new homes have contributed net income to local governments of more than $25 million, which keeps area property taxes lower.

6 HOUSING STARTS HISTORY Housing starts are a key indicator of the economic health of an area (proj.) Total Housing Starts (1000 s) Percent Change 9.6% 7.1% 37.8% 21.4% 21.1% Single Family Starts (1000 s) Percent Change 9.1% 6.8% 38.1% 12.4% 21% Share 95.9% 95.6% 95.8% 88.7% 88.6% Multi-family Starts (1000 s) Percent Change 24.9% 15.5% 31.9% 224.9% 22% Share 4.1% 4.4% 4.2% 11.3% 11.4% Source: United States Census Bureau Building Permits (Greater Greenville) Key Insights Steady decline is an indication that a community is stagnating. Rapid growth or decline is an indication of other factors like speculation. A change in the ratio of single family and multi-family is an indicatior of change in demand and potential for speculation. High End Homes ,391 permits (2.7% change) ,591 permits (14.4% change) 2,088 permits (31.2% change) 25 Greenville County % ,340 permits (12.1% change) ,514 permits (7.4% change) Pickens Laurens 5 *proj. County County 3.0% 0.6% Greenville County Laurens County Pickens County Asheville, N.C. Columbia, S.C. Charlotte, N.C. Traid, N.C. 1 Traingle, N.C. 2 1, ,532 2,252 5,845 2,342 5, % -37.1% -35.9% -16.1% 0.5% -6.5% -8.6% 4.0% County Building Permits 1, ,315 2,204 6,030 2,214 5, % -13.1% 54.7% -14.2% -2.1% 3.2% -5.5% -6.2% 1, ,478 2,624 7,874 2,284 7, % -11.3% -30.9% 12.4% 19.1% 30.6% 3.2% 32.5% , % % % % 3, % 9, % 2, % 9, % 2014 (proj.) 2, % % % 1, % 2, % 10, % 3, % 9, % 1 Winston-Salem, Greensboro, High Point; 2 Raleigh, Durham; 3 Homes over 4,000 square feet or $400,000 permitted value Source: Market Edge Single-Family Units Sold * 2.0 Transactions in Billions * Current Active (as of 1/10/15) SALES ,530 6,395 (-2.1%) 7,433 (+16.2%) 9,160 (+23.2%) 9,942 (+8.5%) $1.123 $1.100 $1.343 $1.710 $1.934 (+13.0%) Units 4,870 (+0.1%) Volume (billions) (+8.5%) Average Price $284,074 (+8.4%) Median Price $209,000 (+11.8%) Average DOM 149 (-5.7%) *While representative of market activity, this report may not include all sales brokered by Member firms and should not be viewed as all inclusive of sales transacted within the market during the time referenced. Source: Greater Greenville Association of REALTORS

7 AFFORDABILITY NAHB Housing Opportunity Index The Housing Opportunity Index is a measure of housing affordability. Produced by the National Association of Home Builders, the Housing Opportunity Index measures the share of homes sold in a given area that are affordable to a family earning the local median family income, based on standard mortgage underwriting criteria. Greater Greenville HOI: 78 Median Price: $163,000 Median Income: $58,200 National Rank: 73 (out of 227 MSAs measured) Therefore, 78 percent of the homes sold during the third quarter of 2014 were affordable for a family earning the median income. Greater Greenville is consistently in the top third of the markets measured by the Housing Opportunity Index. However, our region is still at risk in terms of affordability. Since the fourth quarter of 2012 our index has dropped from 84.7 and has been as low as 52.8 (2006). The Housing Opportunity Index uses two major components: income and housing cost. For income, the index uses the median family income estimate published by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. The index assumes a family can afford to spend 28 percent of its gross income on housing. For cost, the index uses data collected from CoreLogic. The monthly principal and interest that an owner would pay is based on the assumption of a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with a 10-percent down payment. The interest rate is the weighted average of fixed and adjustable rates for the quarter as reported by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The cost also includes estimated property taxes and property insurance for the area based on data gathered from the American Community Survey. SUPPLY VS. DEMAND Leading Markets Index An often overlooked impact of overregulation of Home Building is the affect it has on housing affordability. Every time government issues or changes a regulation that raises construction and development costs, some families are Priced Out of homeownership. The National Association of Home Builders produces a report of households Priced Out of homeownership by a $1,000 increase in the price of a home. Greater Greenville Median New Home Price: $277,468 Income Needed to Qualify: $67,903 Percent of Households that can Afford: 34 Greater Greenville Households Priced Out: 380 The Priced Out methodology is similar to the Housing Opportunity Index and uses the same data. The model simply measures how many households can qualify for a mortgage before and after a $1,000 increase in the price of a home. This report was updated in The National Association of Home Builders measures, on a quarterly basis, the relationship of individual housing markets around the country to a measure of normal. The study uses, as a basis for normal, a prior year that is judged as normal. For most of the country, including Greater Greenville, is considered to be normal. The study measures three characteristics: Jobs, Building Permits, and Housing Prices. A score is developed with 100 being normal, for each characteristic. The three scores are averaged for a community score. Third Quarter 2014 Overall Permits Prices Employment Greater Greenville, SC Asheville, NC Charlotte, NC Columbia, SC Greensboro, NC Raleigh, NC PRICED OUT EFFECT Greater Greenville reached its trough in March 2012 with an index of It peaked in November 2006 at With building permits running well and consistently below normal, and housing prices rising to historically high levels, a fair assessment can be made that, like many Southeastern markets, the Greater Greenville area has a supply vs. demand imbalance that is contributing to a lack of affordability, a flattening of house price growth, or potentially a drop housing prices in the future as production reaches normal.

8 Produced by: Home Builders Association of Greenville HBAofGreenville.com Facebook.com/HBAofGreenville Greater Greenville Association of REALTORS GGAR.com Upstate Mortgage Lenders Association Sales & Marketing Council of the Upstate HBAofGreenville.com/SMC Facebook.com/SMCoftheUpstateSC Data Compiled by: Michael Dey, Executive Vice President Home Builders Association of Greenville Chris Bailey, Director of Governmental Affairs Greater Greenville Association of REALTORS Designed and Published by: Leigh Ann DeYoung, President N-tegrate Media, Marketing & Sales

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