What Will 2015 Hold for the Seattle Economy & Residential Real Estate Market?

Transcription

1 What Will 2015 Hold for the Seattle Economy & Residential Real Estate Market? A Presentation to Windermere Wall Street Group Presented by: Matthew Gardner Managing Principal 415 Westlake, Seattle 524 Second Ave, Suite 500 Seattle, WA

2 U.S Economic Outlook

3 U.S. Total Payroll Jobs at an There are Still 8.7 Million People Out of Work. But, Only 7.3M are Actually Looking! 142, , , , , , , , , , ,000 All Time High Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan In 000 s Source: BLS & Gardner Economics Seasonally Adjusted Figures through February 2015

4 Monthly U.S. Payroll Change 600,000 11% We Averaged 260,000 New Jobs Per Month in Expect to See Modestly Faster Growth in Net Jobs Added 500, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 Net Monthly Jobs Added (SA) Unemployment Rate 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% Unemployment Rate Source: BLS & Gardner Economics Seasonally Adjusted Figures through January 2015

5 Guess Who s Still Working? 35% 30% Age Distribution of People at Work. 25% 20% By 2020, 25% of the Labor Force Will be Over % 10% ¼ of the Population over 65 Are Still Working! 5% 0% Jan-83 Jan-85 Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan Source: BLS & Gardner Economics Current Data through January 2015 (SA)

6 Percent of Balance 90+ Days Delinquent by Loan Type Total Household Debt was $11.83 Trillion at the End of 2014! Is Student Debt Affecting Housing? You Bet It Is! 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Mortgages Lines of Credit Car Loans Credit Cards Student Loans Source: New York Fed Data Through Q4-14

7 U.S. Economic Forecast Inflation Is Still a Non-Factor & Well Below the Fed s Target; 2.5% Job Growth in 2015 = Potential for 3M New Jobs; Unemployment Rate Will Continue to Contract Look for 5.2% by the End 2015; and U.S. Still Considered a Safe Haven Globally Which Will Boost Economic Growth.

8 Washington State Economy

9 West Coast Employment Annual Employment Growth Rates We Compare Very Favorably to Most Major West Coast Markets. Investors Are Watching! San Jose Tacoma San Diego Denver Seattle San Francisco/Oakland Portland Boise Las Vegas Phoenix Santa Anna Sacremento Riverside San Bernadino Los Angeles, Long Beach, Glendale 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% SOURCE: BLS & Gardner Economics Seasonally Adjusted Data (December 2014)

10 Employment Growth Varies Annual Employment Change Most Metro Areas Are Expanding Faster than the U.S. Short-Term Growth Has Turned Negative in Longview & Wenatchee. Tacoma Wenatchee Kennewick/Pasco/Richland Seattle MSA Bellingham Longview Spokane Yakima Mount Vernon Olympia Bremerton -1% -1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% Source: WA ESD & BLS Data Through December 2014

11 Annual Job Growth Seattle Metro Area Professional & Business Services 10,300 Aerospace Unlikely to Turn Around in Trade Construction Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality 5,200 3,800 8,200 10,000 But, Overall, Very Reasonable Growth Numbers. Information Other Manufacturing Other Services Local Government Financial Activities State Government 3,200 3,100 2,600 2,500 2,300 1,000 Federal Government 300 TWU 1/ -500 Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing -3,300-4,000-2, ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 1/ - Transportation, Warehousing& Utilities Source: WA ESD Y/Y Data through December 2014 (SA)

12 But Recovery is Bifurcated Sector Pre- Recession Peak Employment Trough Employment Current Employment % Change from Prior Peak Information 83,600 83,100 92, % Retail Trade 148, , , % Professional & Business Services 218, , , % Leisure and Hospitality 138, , , % Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 272, , , % Government 204, , , % Manufacturing 171, , , % Wholesale Trade 72,800 65,500 72, % Financial Activities 94,300 79,100 86, % Construction 101,100 62,500 82, % Educational & Health Services N/A N/A 203,500 N/A SOURCE: WA ESD & Gardner Economics Data Through December 2014 Seattle MSA

13 Unemployment Rates. 11.0% 10.0% Seattle M.S.A. U.S. Looking Good in Seattle and the Rate is Expected to Continue to Contract. 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.6% 5.0% 4.0% 4.6% 3.0% Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Source: WA ESD Data through December 2014 (SA) Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14

14 Employment Growth Seattle MSA 60,000 Healthy Growth Rates Will Continue through ,000 20, , (f) -40,000-60,000-80, ,000 SOURCE: WA ESD Historic Data & Gardner Economics Forecasts

15 Regional Employment Situation Seattle Remains One of the Best West Coast Locations Relative to Potential Growth in 2015; Overall, We Are Looking Better than a Vast Majority of States in the Union; and We are Forecasting Close to 48,000 New Jobs Will Be Created in the Metro Area this Year. SpaceEx, Facebook, Alibaba!

16 U.S. Housing Market

17 Summary Outlook: A Multiyear Housing Recovery Will Continue Because: No Recession On it s Way, (but a Slow Economy); Continued Job Growth and Household Formations Getting Started; and Lagging Housing Starts and Continuing Housing Shortage. U.S. Home Prices are Primed to Rise by 3.5% in First Time Buyers Should Start to Enter the Market. Mortgage Rates Will Remain Very Competitive. Current Delinquency Rates down to 5.85%; Loans in Foreclosure down to 2.39%.

18 Mortgage Rate Forecast Rates Will Rise in 2015! Jumbo Rates Dropped Below 4% at the Start of the Year! 19% of All Loans were Jumbos in % 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% prj Average 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage SOURCE: Freddie Mac with Gardner Economics Forecast

19 In Several Months, Jumbo s were Actually Cheaper than Conventional Loans 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 30-Year Rate Comparison 1/19/2011 4/19/2011 7/19/ /19/2011 1/19/2012 4/19/2012 7/19/ /19/2012 1/19/2013 4/19/2013 7/19/ /19/2013 1/19/2014 4/19/2014 7/19/ /19/2014 1/19/2015 Jumbo Rates Conforming Rates Average 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages Excluding Points SOURCE: Gardner Economics

20 Better to Own or Buy? (Silly Question!) Even in the Worst of Times, It s Better to Own! Wealth Recovery from Bubble Years and Those that Bought Since $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 Household Net Worth x46 x36 x46 x31 x34 x50 x30 x22 x36 $ owner renter SOURCE: Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances

21 FICO Scores for Approved LOans August-11 September-11 October-11 November-11 December-11 January-12 February-12 March-12 April-12 May-12 June-12 July-12 August-12 September-12 October-12 November-12 December-12 January-13 February-13 March-13 April-13 May-13 June-13 July-13 August-13 September-13 October-13 November-13 December-13 January-14 February-14 March-14 April-14 May-14 June-14 July-14 August-14 September-14 October-14 November-14 December-14 January-15 FICO Scores For Approved Purchasers Are Still Far Higher Than They Needs to Be, But Are Slowly Coming Down. (Expect this Trend to Continue in 2015) Banks/Regulators Not Easing Credit (Average F.I.C.O. Scores of Approved Loans) Conventional Loans FHA Loans Source: Gardner Economics & Ellie Mae

22 Local Residential Markets

23 Argument that Housing is Actually Still Modestly Underpriced 250 This Suggests that We Still Have Some Potential for Prices to Move Higher Without a Bubble Forming Seattle Market Trend SOURCE: S&P Case Shiller YTD Data through January 2015

24 Interesting Trend in 2014 With New Homes Garnering a Huge Premium. Why? Little Choice in the Resale Arena! Seattle Metro Area Home Prices New vs Resale Annual Average Price $650 $600 $550 $500 $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 Apr-03 Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 In $000's Existing New SOURCE: NWMLS

25 Seattle

26 Resale Transactions & Prices City of Seattle Prices Recovery is Clearly in Place and We are 3% Below our Previous Peak 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 Sales Avg $ $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 Inventory Concerns Are Affecting Transactional Velocities. 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 1,000 $250, SOURCE: NWMLS Single Family Homes $200,000

27 Resale Transactions & Prices Bottom of the Market in 2009/2011 Surprising that Inventory Levels Did not Compress Sales Still Little New Construction Activity. 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Seattle Condominium Units $380,000 Sales Avg $ $360,000 $340,000 $320,000 $300,000 $280,000 $260,000 $240,000 $220, SOURCE: NWMLS Resale Condominium Housing $200,000

28 Sub-Market Analysis (2014) Seattle Single Family Home Price Growth 18% 16% 16.2% 15.5% Impressive Growth Rates. 14% 12% 10% 8% 13.4% 12.4% 11.2% 14.0% 6% 4% 2% 0% SOURCE: NWMLS

29 Sub-Market Analysis (2014) Seattle Multifamily Home Price Growth % Mount Baker Drop is a Function of No Sales (Or Inventory!) % Downtown Beacon Hill Capitol Hill/Madison Park 8.5% 8.5% 1.1% Queen Anne West Seattle Mt/ Baker/Seward Park SOURCE: NWMLS Average Price Growth (2013 vs 2014) %

30 $750,000 Home Sale Prices Core Seattle Single Family Homes Home Values Overcorrected Wiping Out Almost 8 Years of Appreciation. Values are Up 62% Since Spring 2002, But That is an Annual Rate of Just 5%. $700,000 $650,000 $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 Apr-02 Nov-02 Jun-03 Jan-04 Aug-04 Mar-05 Oct-05 May-06 Dec-06 Jul-07 Feb-08 Sep-08 Apr-09 Nov-09 Jun-10 Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12 Oct-12 May-13 Dec-13 Jul-14 Feb-15 SOURCE: NWMLS & Gardner Economics

31 Q & A Gardner Economics LLC 2015 The Preceding Presentation may not be Copied or Distributed without Prior Written Permission of Gardner Economics LLC

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