Economic Forecast OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT WHAT THE TABLE SHOWS:

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2 Economic Forecast OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT United States Real GDP $ billions (fourth quarter) $1,996 $1,575 $1,5 $1,9 $15, $15,5 $15,97 $16,6 % change over the four quarters 1.9% -.8% -.%.8%.%.%.% 3.5% Nonfarm employment Job count (fourth quarter) 137,93, 135,153,333 19,56,667 13,83,667 13,86,667 13,6, ,79, 138,88,195 % change over the four quarters.9% -.% -.%.6% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.1% Average monthly change 99,75-3,7-68,889 63,83 166, , , ,333 Real GDP $ billions (fourth quarter) $ $39 $36 $ $8 $55 $61 $7 % change over the four quarters.7% -.% -1.1%.%.3%.9%.% 3.% Nonfarm employment Job count (fourth quarter),77,167,71,767,63,333,655,333,75,67,7,567,791,,85,7 % change over the four quarters.5% -1.% -.%.9% 1.9% 1.5% 1.7% 1.% Average monthly change 1,86 -,367-9,119 1,917,1 3,9 3,873,89 WHAT THE TABLE SHOWS: s GDP forecast is derived from the national forecast by allocating output to each of the 5 states based on employment shares. So, forecast misses reflect surprises in the aggregate forecast as well as unexpected shifts in a state s GDP share. s economy has done quite well. The state s growth pace is expected to quicken in 1. Note: GDP figures are based on quarterly values that are interpolated from annual GDP estimates using quarterly employment changes. Unbolded figures are reported actual values and bold figures represent forecasts. Sources: US Department of Commerce; US Department of Labor. Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking

3 Agriculture Mining Utilities Construction Durable manufacturing Nondudrable manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation Information Finance and insurance Real estate Professional and technical services Management of companies Administrative and waste management services Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment, and recreation Hotel and food service Other services Government December 3, 13 The Economy s Structure PERCENT OF TOTAL GDP DERIVED FROM SELECTED INDUSTRIES US industry mix industry mix The figure compares the relative importance of selected industries to the state s economy with the national footprint of each industry (state and national figures reflect the value added of each industry as a percent of aggregate state or US nominal GDP, respectively). s economy has been dampened by weakness in the construction and real estate and manufacturing sectors. But the state s important services businesses are a moderating influence. struggled with housing excesses like many in the west and south. Source: US Department of Commerce. Updated through 11. Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking 3

4 Bankruptcies RATIO OF BANKRUPTCY FILINGS TO THE 7 Q NUMBER The figure illustrates trends in bankruptcy Business bankruptcy filings Nonbusiness bankruptcy filings filings by businesses and persons relative to the number of filings in 7 Q, prior to the recession. The state s businesses are in good shape overall. 6 5 All US bankruptcy filings (shaded area) 6 5 Indicators of financial stress are a useful 3 3 coincident indication of economic distress. Financial stresses are notably absent in s business community. Source: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts; Updated through September Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking

5 Private Business Surveys REAL GDP (% CHANGE 1 MONTHS EARLIER) DIFFUSION INDEXES (5 = NO CHANGE) Real GDP in the Great Lakes region (left scale) Forecast -5 Business Barometer Index, Mid-America Purchasing -6 Managers (right scale) The figure follows a business conditions index based on a survey of purchasing managers and real GDP growth in the Great Lakes region. Business activity in the Midwest has eased somewhat, but remains solid. Diffusion indexes, like those based on responses from purchasing managers, are a timely indicator of activity in the state and these may be moderating. Business surveys are expected to improve somewhat in the coming year. Note: Business Barometer data unavailable prior to Sources: Institute of Supply Management; US Department of Commerce. Updated through October 13 (survey) and 13 Q3 (GDP). Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking 5

6 Initial Jobless Claims RATIO OF INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE TO THE 7 Q LEVEL The figure tracks layoffs in and.5.5 the national level of claims. Weekly layoffs, both the state and national. US (solid area). tallies, are illustrated in the figure as a ratio to the level of layoffs in the fourth quarter of 7, prior to the recession Layoffs are down to the lowest levels in recent memory The drop in jobless claims implies that s economy is moving forward Source: US Department of Labor. Updated through August 1, 13 (state) and August 17, 13 (US) Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking 6

7 Economic Growth REAL GDP GROWTH (PERCENT CHANGE FROM FOUR QUARTERS EARLIER) US Forecast Real GDP growth in (the line in the figure) is superimposed on top of US real GDP growth (bars in the figure). s economy is expanding slightly faster than the national average. The state s economy is expected to pick up speed in the coming year. Source: US Department of Commerce. Updated through 1 (state) and 13 Q3 (US). Quarterly estimates for states after 1 are interpolated from employment figures, based on the historical correlation of state and national employment changes. Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking 7

8 Economic Output REAL GDP LEVEL (RATIO TO Q) The figure illustrates the evolution of real GDP of the state and the overall US economy since the fourth quarter of, Forecast the peak of the previous business cycle that is, at any point in time the lines trace the ratio of real GDP to its level in Q US s economy now matches the national economy in relative terms The economy is forecast to continue to expand Source: US Department of Commerce. Updated through 1 (state) and 13 Q3 (US). Quarterly estimates for states after 1 are interpolated from employment figures, based on the historical correlation of state and national employment changes Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking 8

9 Employment Growth NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (PERCENT CHANGE FROM 1 MONTHS EARLIER) Job growth over the most recent 1 months, compared with national employment trends. 3 US Forecast 3 Job growth has been quite robust in this expansion The outlook is bright for s job market. Source: US Department of Labor. Updated through October Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking 9

10 Employment NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (RATIO TO THE Q LEVEL) The figure illustrates the evolution of employment in the state compared with the nation since Q, the peak of the US Forecast previous business cycle. The lines trace out the ratio of employment at the time to employment in Q. s businesses have recovered or replaced all of the jobs that were lost during the recession Minneapolis The state s business community has considerable forward momentum. Source: US Department of Labor. Updated through October Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking 1

11 Intrastate Employment NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT IN SELECTED COMMUNITIES (RATIO TO Q LEVEL) Job trends in local communities within the Forecast US forecast US Mankato-North Mankato St. Cloud Rochester Minneapolis-St. Paul- Bloomington Duluth forecast state. The economies of most communities in the state are now on the rise. The state s recovery is fairly broad based. Source: US Department of Labor. Updated through April 13. Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking 11

12 Unemployment UNEMPLOYMENT (PERCENT OF THE LABOR FORCE) Unemployment rate trends in, 1 1 compared with the national average. s unemployment rate has come 1 8 US (shaded) Forecast 1 8 down significantly since 9, to.8 percent most recently, retracing most of the rise in unemployment during the recession. 6 6 The unemployment rate is the single best indicator of the relative economic performance of a region. The trends in unemployment imply that is recovering well from the recession Source: US Department of Labor. Updated through October 13. Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking 1

13 Relative House Prices RATIO OF THE STATE S HOUSE PRICES TO THE NATIONAL AVERAGE (1995 Q = 1.) The figure tracks the relative price of houses versus the nation in the state that is, it reflects the ratio of the state price index to the national house price index, with that ratio set to unity in the summer of A drop in the line means that house prices in the state lag the national trend. States that did not suffer from speculative conditions saw a decline in the relative price of houses in this last decade. House prices in are back in normal alignment with the national average, at least relative to the levels at the beginning of the New Millennium. Real estate values are likely to appreciate at a moderate pace in the coming years. Source: FHFA. Updated through 13 Q3. Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking 13

14 Real Estate Markets HOUSE PRICES IN SELECTED COMMUNITIES (RATIO TO THE 1995 Q LEVEL) The figure tracks the cumulative percentage.3.3 deviation in house prices since 1995 in selected local markets and compares those 1.9 US St. Cloud, MN 1.9 with the national average. House prices are steady and rising in some cases. Duluth, MN-WI Rochester, MN KEY MESSAGE: 1.5 Grand Forks, ND-MN La Crosse, WI-MN 1.5 Markets that got too pricey now have corrected. 1.1 Minneapolis-St Paul-Bloomington, MN Minneapolis (Case-Shiller) 1.1 Sources: FHFA; Standard & Poor s. Updated through 13 Q Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking 1

15 New Home Building HOUSING STARTS (RATIO TO THE JULY 199 LEVEL) Home construction in the state, compared.5.5 with the nation. Housing construction is beginning to strengthen US Forecast 1.5 An expected recovery in new home building will bring new energy to the state s recovery Source: Census Department. Updated through August Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking 15

16 Office Markets PERCENT OF OFFICE SPACE THAT IS VACANT The relative health of the commercial office 5 5 market. Office vacancy rates are starting to ease back. Commercial real estate is a reflection of the 15 Minneapolis-St Paul 15 economy s underlying health and the office market should continue to improve in Source: CB Richard Ellis (formerly CB Commercial Property Information Systems), Office Vacancy Index of the United States. Updated through 13 Q. 5 All metropolitan areas (shaded area) Regional Perspectives: Economic Outlook Commercial Banking 16

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