The MEED view of the GCC construction market Ed James, Head of MEED Insight

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1 The MEED view of the GCC construction market Ed James, Head of MEED Insight A presentation for Arabian World Construction Summit Abu Dhabi, 24 May 21 Copyright 21 Emap Business Communications Ltd All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in any retrieval system, or transmitted in any form, by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior permission of the copyright owner. While every care has been taken in completing this report, no responsibility can be accepted for any errors or omissions that may occur.

2 MEED Insight MEED Insight is the research and analysis arm of the MEED group, providing off-the-shelf reports and bespoke services to customers. It offers tailored research on a broad range of countries and sectors in the Middle East on issues such as market sizing and outlook, project overviews and competitor analysis. The unit draws on the resources of: MEED Projects, which is tracking more than $7 trillion worth of schemes in the region; MEED magazine/ MEED.com, which has been reporting on the Middle East and North Africa for more than 5 years; and MEED Events, which organises over 25 premium events a year in the Gulf. For more information, please contact: Nicky Dawson, Business Development Manager or Edward James, Head of MEED Insight, Dubai

3 Contents Introduction The Past: the boom years The Present: coming back to Earth The Future: a promising outlook Project opportunities Conclusions

4 MEED Projects The majority of data from this presentation is taken from MEED Projects, MEED s proprietary online database of all major projects in the Middle East. MEED Projects is updated daily and currently tracks more than 3, projects totaling more than $7 trillion across the region. For more information on this service, please visit

5 The Boom Years 24-28

6 The Boom Years The five years up to the end of 28 marked an unprecedented period of growth for the six GCC states 9 Value of projects awarded in GCC $ms Cumulative total of $72bn spent on capital projects Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Country Source: MEED Projects The UAE was the clear hotspot for project activity but Qatar and Saudi Arabia were also important. Spending spree took off in 25

7 $ms Real estate was the clear winner in terms of sector spending Refining Industrial Water and Waste LNG Petrochemicals Oil / Gas Production Power Infrastructure Construction Source: MEED Projects Dubai s 22 decision to allow non-gcc nationals was catalyst for real estate boom and was copied by some other GCC states, although to a lesser extent Infrastructure spending also high as governments improved transport links and adjusted to higher population levels

8 $ms $ a barrel of oil Direct correlation between oil price and growth in GCC project activity Total contract value ($ millions) Oil Price nominal Oil price inflation adjusted Source: MEED Insight Alongside real estate speculation, the high oil price was the principal driver of project market growth

9 Other shared drivers of demand Real estate and high oil revenues were the primary contributing factors to the project boom. But there are others too: Undeveloped infrastructure especially in transportation sector, and roads A new generation of leadership committed to diversification and modernisation of the economy The relative failure of previous oil booms and the oil crash of 1998 Fast-growing population and the need for greater utility and housing capacity Apart from real estate, the other project drivers still remain

10 The Bursting of the Bubble?

11 Value $ms The bursting of the real estate bubble Value of all GCC projects put on hold or cancelled Value of all projects put on hold in = $168bn Value of all projects put on hold = $514bn Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Country Source: MEED Projects At its peak in March 29, the GCC project market was worth $2.6 trillion. Today, we value it at $1.9 trillion. However.apart from the UAE, the rest of the GCC has not been so affected

12 $ms A massive number of Dubai projects put on hold Value of construction and infrastructure projects in the UAE by status 45, 4, 35, 3, 425, Considerable uncertainty whether these will proceed 27, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 216, Projects on hold or cancelled Projects under construction Projects planned or under bidding Source: MEED Projects On hold projects now nearly double those under construction. ome 4 per cent of UAE projects on hold or cancelled

13 $ms Abu Dhabi has been far less impacted than Dubai 35, 3, Comparison of on hold projects by emirate 295, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 49, Source: MEED Projects Dubai Abu Dhabi Abu Dhabi clearly less troubled by economic crisis. Capital is expected to overtake Dubai in terms of construction activity over coming five years. However, concerns remain over real estate

14 $ Material prices have dropped dramatically 16 Impact of economic crisis on material costs Oct-8 Oct-9 Feb KSA Cement (5kg) KSA Rebar (1kg) KSA Ready mix (m3) UAE Cement (5kg) UAE Rebar (1kg) UAE Ready mix (m3) Source: Davis Langdon research for MEED

15 $ms % of projects in each country that are on hold The bubble only burst for some 5 45 Value of projects on hold or cancelled in the region Clearly an issue with the UAE projects market, but the rest of the region has escaped relatively unscathed. Kuwait and KSA least affected Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE 1 Source: MEED Projects 5

16 $ms There has been a sharp fall in construction activity, but overall spending has been less impacted Value of GCC construction contract awards Value of GCC contract awards other sectors Source: MEED Projects Q1 27 Q2 27 Q3 27 Q4 28 Q1 28 Q2 28 Q3 28 Q4 29 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q Q4 Q1

17 $ms Indeed it is largely business as normal in other sectors 6 5 Breakdown of GCC on hold projects by sector Source: MEED Projects Damage outside construction sector is comparatively small

18 Spending on strategic sectors remains relatively stable or has even increased Source: MEED Projects No indication of that spending on key sectors is going to reduce thanks to continued population growth, high oil prices and increased demand for utilities

19 Indeed KSA projects market bucked the global trend last year Source: MEED Projects While UAE projects market has collapsed, KSA actually doubled in size last year! Clear to see that other GCC markets remain small in comparison to UAE and KSA

20 $ms However, for now the UAE remains the busiest project hub 25 Value of projects under construction in the GCC by country Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Source: MEED Projects

21 But in terms of un-awarded projects Saudi Arabia is the new leader Budget value of active announced and un-awarded projects in the GCC Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Source: MEED Projects UAE projects market will continue to contract while KSA market will continue to grow

22 Future Outlook

23 $ millions Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have the largest capacity for growth in projects market 45 4 Value of GCC projects by status Contracts awarded Projects planned or announced Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE In contrast, Qatar and the UAE have probably already passed their project activity peak Source: MEED Projects

24 Construction is still the main sector 8 7 Value of planned and un-awarded projects in the GCC by sector Source: MEED Projects

25 Only in Qatar is construction not the largest sector Breakdown of planned and un-awarded projects by country and sector UAE Saudi Arabia Qatar Oman Kuwait Water and Waste Refining Power Petrochemicals Oil / Gas Production Infrastructure Industrial Construction Alternative Energies Bahrain Source: MEED Projects $ms

26 $ms The greater Middle East also hold a lot of promise 4 35 Budgeted value of current and future projects outside the GCC Algeria Egypt Iran Iraq Jordan Lebanon Libya Morocco Sudan Syria Tunisia Yemen Source: MEED Projects The wider region clearly represents an opportunity

27 Other reasons to be hopeful Government budgets are up on 29 expenditure Saudi Arabia $144bn (+14%) Kuwait $56bn (+33%) Qatar $32bn (+25%) Oman $19bn (+12%) The high oil price has allowed governments to set more ambitious budgets and ensure an expansion of their capital investment programmes. All told, there will be more than $35bn worth of government spending in the GCC this year compared with 29

28 $ms Saudi Arabia - outlook is very bright 1 MEED forecast of KSA total contract awards Actual awards ,13 86,277 78,83 Forecast 72,43 64,454 68, Year Source: MEED Insight The crucial element for the forecast is for the oil price to remain above $5 a barrel

29 $ms Forecasted project pipeline is very healthy KSA forecasted total contract awards by sector , 41,4 4, 36,185 36, 35, 31,2 32,996 3, 25, 24,6 2, 15, 1, 5, Year Source: MEED Insight Road Construction Rail Water & Wastewater Power Ports Petrochemicals Oil and Gas Airports Our forecasting takes in to account delayed and cancelled projects and provides a more realistic picture of future project activity

30 Saudi project opportunities Fast-growing population means government has to diversify economy. Six economic cities will require more than $1bn of investment to provide homes and jobs for local nationals Ambitious rail and airport plans to improve transportation links Three new world-scale refineries and world s largest crude increment plan More than 3, MW a year of new power capacity required for the next 1 years Plans to build wastewater facilities in every major city Project market driven by necessity as much as capacity

31 But.a word of caution KSA construction and infrastructure contracts won by foreign contractors, 1373, 17% KSA civil construction sector is hard to break into Source: MEED Projects KSA construction and infrastrucuture contracts under execution, 51735, 83% Since Dubai real estate collapse, regional contractors have all been targeting KSA, but reality is that it is hard to compete against local firms. Contractors who want to win work in KSA will have to team up with a local partner or look for subcontracting work. Kuwait is a similar story

32 Kuwait a sleeping giant Despite its wealth, state has yet to get going. Signs are now that it is finally preparing to develop its potential with new 5-year, $1bn investment programme. Major projects include: Subiya Causeway - $3bn Expansion of airport - $2bn New Kuwait University Campus - $3bn Development of Failaka island - $3bn New Bubiyan Port - $3bn New Al Zour refinery - $12bn Non-local contractors can only bid on largest projects but still plenty of opportunities

33 Iraq a less hostile environment Iraq s infrastructure is in ruins. The award of permits for 1 major field developments will soon see Baghdad producing more than 6 million b/d of oil and earn significant amounts of revenue. Local contracting capacity is limited and international expertise is required Contractors already entering the country to help the IOCs A massive amount of work required ranging from railways and refineries to sewage treatment plants and new housing stock. Iraq will become a hotbed of contracting activity over next five years

34 Conclusions After an unprecedented boom between 25-28, the GCC projects market is now in a period of adjustment. Clearly, real estate will not provide the same number of opportunities as before and Dubai is unlikely to see the same amount of activity However. the other drivers that have pushed the project market remain. High oil prices, strong population growth and a commitment to diversification and modernisation ensure that there will continue to be opportunities in the GCC and the wider region as a whole Infrastructure, transportation, utilities and hydrocarbons in particular will see significant investments over the next 1 years Contractors which can operate across sectors and which can tap into new markets will be the most successful

35 MEED Insight s GCC construction market survey We hope that you found this presentation beneficial. In order to help MEED Insight serve the information needs of our customers in the best possible way, we would be grateful if you could take a couple of minutes to fill out a short survey reviewing the presentation. Please click here to take part: MEED Insight s GCC Construction 21 Survey THANK YOU

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