GCC Infrastructure Credit Quality

Transcription

1 GCC Infrastructure Credit Quality Karim Nassif Associate Director Corporate and Infrastructure Ratings 18 February 2014 Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor s. Copyright 2013 by Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved.

2 Agenda Recent Infrastructure Rating Actions Infrastructure Sector Outlook & Thematic trends Project & Corporate (Infrastructure) Criteria Update 2

3 Infrastructure Rating Actions

4 Rating Actions: More Positive GCC Infrastructure Sector - Rating Actions* Company or transaction To From Date Action Abu Dhabi National Energy Co. PJSC A/Positive/-- A/Stable/-- 01-May-13 Ajman Sewerage (Private) Co. Ltd. BB+/Stable/-- BB/Positive/-- 17-Jul-13 Saudi Electric Co. AA-/Positive/-- AA-/Stable/-- 03-Jun-13 *Rating actions since Mar 31, 2013 until Feb. 15, GCC Gulf Cooperation Council. NR Not rated. 4

5 Infrastructure Sector Outlook & Thematic Trends

6 Project Finance: Ruwais Power Co. (Shuweihat 2) Landmark project bond in power sector rated A- /Stable First rated project power bond in the GCC First project finance transaction in the emerging markets rated under our Government Related Entity Criteria. Islamic finance holds significant potential Impact of Basle 3 6

7 Standard & Poor's EMEA-Based Project Finance Ratings By Sector As of Oct. 30, 2013 Sector No. of Issues Average initial Rating Total defaults Average initial rating of defaults Average no. of years to default % of issues % of default s Industrial 14 BB 1 BB Leisure and gaming 29 BBB 0 N/A N/A Natural resources/mining 10 BB 3 BB Oil and gas 59 BBB 1 B Power 250 BB+ 23 BB Public finance/real estate 57 BBB 0 N/A N/A Telecommunications 3 BBB 0 N/A N/A Transport 92 BBB 8 BB

8 Standard & Poor's Project Finance Ratings By Category And Region As of Oct. 30, 2013 Rating North America EMEA Asia-Pacific Latin America AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/C Total Above BBB (%) BBB (%) Speculative grade ('BB+' and below; %)

9 Transport and Corporate Securitisation: Potential for Growth but What About the Financing? Transactions supported indirectly by robust performance of commodity linked off-takers Funding for Saudi and Qatar Metro Projects Setbacks are not uncommon in the implementation of projects Mechanism for demand risk sharing between public and private sector 9

10 Utilities: Strong Performance Supported by Demand Growth Profitability and operations over the past year in line or ahead of expectations Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (BBB/Stable/--) Saudi Electric Co. (AA-/Positive/--) Abu Dhabi National Energy Co. (TAQA) (A/Positive/--) Strong demographic growth leading to increasing demand for utilities However full cost reflective tariffs still to be implemented in a number of GCC markets. Energy and utilities comprises almost ¼ of the total value of the projects market. Demand for power is forecast to triple in the next 25 years Water industry will be worth US$ 70 billion 10

11 Thematic Articles Published How does the US Shale phenomenon impact GCC producers? Project Bonds potential in the GCC Global Infrastructure funding needs, what is the gap left to be funded by the private sector? 11

12 US Shale Gas Impact on GCC Game-changer for global energy markets Limited effect on rated GCC-based oil producers in the near term, although the medium to long term is less certain The MEED reports U.S. is set to cut its petrochemicals imports by 50% over the coming years GCC is taking on the challenge Diversifying their business models Generating internal use of the oil Buying into the shale story MEED: Middle East Economic Digest

13 Natural Gas Prices on Various Indices $ mmbtu NBP-UK Henry Hub- US LNG_JPN NGC_German BEB_German Standard & Poor's Source: Bloomberg

14 Project Bonds In GCC Infrastructure Financing The lull in project bond activity due to cheap source of funding from well capitalized and liquid local banks Bond financing is set to take off caused by the infrastructure spending expected to be $2 trillion over the next 20 years Bond financing may become increasingly attractive when deal size is large and tenor is long Given Basle 3, and caps on lending in the UAE The Shuweihat 2 transaction could become a model for other transactions in the region seeking refinancing. The region is diversifying away from upstream O&G revenues through large industrial and energy-related projects

15 Sukuk Index vs. Corporate US Dollar Bond Index 7 6 Percentage % Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Sukuk Yield Bond Yield Source: HSBC NASDAQ Dubai GCC - Corporate US Dollar Bond Index (GCCI) & Sukuk Index (GSKC) 15

16 Project & Corporate (Infrastructure) Criteria Update

17 Corporate Criteria: Infrastructure Sector is Unique Infrastructure includes: Corporate Transportation and Utility entities Transportation entities are defined by long term concessions that provide predictable cash flows and operating margins Such as toll roads, ports, airports Utilities are defined by regulatory models that provide predictable cash flows and operating margins, with partial or full pass through of key cost components Integrated entities, or distribution and transmission entities 17

18 Entity Ratios are assessed using 1 of 3 tables 18

19 Project Finance Criteria Construction and Counterparty Risk Methodology is now final Transaction Structure, Operations, and Framework criteria went through Request for Comment (as of Feb ) Key Credit Factors for different sectors have been through Request For Comment. 19

20 Ratings Impact Anticipated From RFCs Viewed As Realignment 65% 27% Anticipated changes primarily driven by proposed Operations Methodology S&P s refined criteria will be applied consistently across all markets to ensure global comparability 20

21 Proposed Project Finance Ratings Framework

22 Thank You Karim Nassif Associate Director T: +971 (0) Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor s. Copyright 2013 by Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved.

23 Copyright 2013 by Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an as is basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs or losses caused by negligence) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Credit-related and other analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact. S&P s opinions, analyses and rating acknowledgment decisions (described below) are not recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor except where registered as such. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. To the extent that regulatory authorities allow a rating agency to acknowledge in one jurisdiction a rating issued in another jurisdiction for certain regulatory purposes, S&P reserves the right to assign, withdraw or suspend such acknowledgement at any time and in its sole discretion. S&P Parties disclaim any duty whatsoever arising out of the assignment, withdrawal or suspension of an acknowledgment as well as any liability for any damage alleged to have been suffered on account thereof. S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, (free of charge), and and (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third-party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at STANDARD & POOR S, S&P, GLOBAL CREDIT PORTAL and RATINGSDIRECT are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC. 23