Immigrant fertility in West Germany: Socialization effect in transitions to second and third births?

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1 Immigrant fertility in West Germany: Socialization effect in transitions to second and third births? Nadja Milewski Institut national d études démographiques (INED), Paris Conference on Effects of Migration on Population Structures in Europe, Vienna Institute of Demography, 1-2 December 2008

2 Outline Immigrants in Germany Fertility of immigrants in Germany Theory and working hypotheses Data and method Transitions to second and third births Discussion

3 Introduction Immigrants in Germany Today: 12% of the population in Germany has a foreign or double nationality Guest workers in West Germany: treaties with Italy (1955), Spain and Greece (1960), Turkey (1961), Morocco (1963), Portugal (1964), Tunesia (1965), Yugoslavia (1968) Refugees and asylum seekers: growing number since the 1980s, mainly from Eastern Europe and third-world countries Ethnic Germans (Aussiedler): mainly from Poland, the former USSR-countries, Romania

4 Introduction Fertility of immigrants in Germany: 1960s: about 5% of newborn children in Germany are of foreign nationality Today: births per year (13%) General development among immigrant population: decline of fertility rates in Germany since the beginning of the 1970s Lower fertility than in respective country of origin and higher rates than among the native population in Germany

5 Introduction Life-course approach: Dynamic nature of life (time, age, sequencing of events) Parity-specific view Interrelation of events and between different life domains Linked lives Research question: Are second- and third-birth risks of immigrant women different from those of West Germans? Study populations: Women of Turkish, former Yugoslavian, Greek, Italian, Spanish origin and their descendants in West Germany; West German women

6 Framework Theory: Disruption: Impact of migration process and related difficulties Adaptation: Current living circumstances play the important role and lead to convergence of fertility behavior Socialization: Individual follows behavior, values, and norms that dominated during her/his childhood Selection and composition: Migration as effect of fertility intentions migrants selected by unobserved factors; fertility differentials due to socio-demographic differences between sub-groups Interrelation of events: migration, (re-)formation of union/household, and (first) child

7 Framework Research question: Are second- and third-birth risks of immigrant women different from those of West Germans? If so, what is the extent to which fertility differentials can be explained by duration of stay in Germany and compositional differences? (adaptation? disruption?) Comparison of immigrant generations (socialization? characteristics?) Differences between national sub-groups (socialization?) Definition of immigrant generation: G1: immigrants moving at age 15 years and older G2: women immigrating under age 15 to or born in Germany

8 Data and method Data: German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP of DIW, Berlin) Respondents questioned annually from 1984 to 2004 Women born from 1946 to 1983, living in West Germany Birth histories for 5483 women in total: 1556 women with an immigration background and 3932 West Germans Time before or in first marriage; first immigrant generation: time after move Sub-samples: Second child: G1: 454, G2: 287, WG: 1771; third child: G1: 415, G2: 171, WG: 1099 Method: Kaplan-Meier survival estimates Piece-wise linear intensity regression model

9 Results: Transition to a second birth Share of two-child mothers and median age at second conception, by migrant generation and country background: Share of two-child mothers Median age of first child in years First-generation immigrants Turkey Yugoslavia, Greece, Italy, Spain Second-generation immigrants Turkey Yugoslavia, Greece, Italy, Spain West Germans

10 Results: Transition to a second birth Impact of stay duration of first-generation immigrants (relative risks): Model 2.1 Model 2.2 West German 1 1 Immigrant generation: First generation (total) 1.31 *** First generation with first birth in West Germany 1.26 *** First generation with first birth abroad 1.96 *** Second generation Note: Significance: '*'=10%; '**'=5%; '***'=1%; controlled for age of first child.

11 Results: Transition to a second birth Impact of covariates: Age at first birth: Higher second-child risks for women who became mothers before age 25 Birth cohort: No significant differences Woman s and spouse s school education: U-shaped effect with women and spouses of secondary education having higher transition rates Woman s employment: Higher transition rates for nonemployed women

12 Results: Transition to a second birth Impact of country of origin (relative risks): Variable Model 2.5 West German 1 Immigrant generation and country of origin First generation with first birth in Germany, Turkey 1.26 ** First generation with first birth in Germany, SSEE 1.19 * First generation with first birth abroad 1.63 *** Second generation, Turkey 0.99 Second generation, SSEE 1.18 Spouse's origin Immigrant from same country 1 Immigrant from different country (incl. West Germany) 0.68 ** Note: Significance: '*'=10%; '**'=5%; '***'=1%; controlled for age of first child, age at first birth, birth cohort, school education, employment status of woman; school education, employment of spouse. SSEE: Yugoslavia, Greece, Italy, Spain.

13 Results: Transition to a second birth Conclusions: No disruption effect for first-generation immigrants moving with one child, no medium-term disruption effect for immigrants who had the first birth in Germany Effect of interrelation of events (re-union of household and migration) Adaptation effect ( new / old immigrants) Socialization effect (differences by immigrant generation and by country background for first-generation immigrants) Compositional differences explain much of fertility differentials

14 Results: Transition to a third birth Impact of stay duration of first-generation immigrants (relative risks): Model 3.1 Model 3.2 West German 1 1 Immigrant generation: First generation (total) 1.27 *** First generation with second birth in West Germany 1.20 ** First generation with second birth abroad 1.77 *** Second generation Note: Significance: '*'=10%; '**'=5%; '***'=1%; controlled for age of second child.

15 Results: Transition to a third birth Summary of findings: Impact of covariates similar to second birth Compositional differences explain fertility differentials partly Immigrants arriving with two children have highest birth risks no disruption effect, but again effect of interrelation of events (re-union of household) Adaptation effect ( new / old immigrants) Socialization effect: Differences by immigrant generation and by country background for first-generation immigrants larger than for second child with Turkish women having the highest transition rates; no differences between other secondgeneration immigrants and West Germans Other covariates without effect: Religious affiliation, religiosity, place where woman lived at age 15,

16 Results: Transition to a third birth Impact of country of origin (relative risks): Variable Model 3.5 West German 1 Immigrant generation and country of origin First generation with second birth in Germany, Turkey 1.75 *** First generation with second birth in Germany, SSEE 0.74 ** First generation with second birth abroad 1.12 Second generation, Turkey 1.41 * Second generation, SSEE 0.84 Spouse's origin Migrant from same country 1 Migrant from different country (incl. West Germany) 1.09 Note: Significance: '*'=10%; '**'=5%; '***'=1%; controlled for age of the second child, age at second birth, birth cohort, school education of the woman; school education of spouse. SSEE (Southern and South Eastern Europe): Yugoslavia, Greece, Italy, Spain.

17 Discussion Conclusions for hypotheses and reflections: Disruption: NO but long-term disruption of unions? Interrelation of events: YES good time to have children? role of policies and work permission Adaptation: YES cause and effect? partner choice Socialization: YES sub-culture of strong-family ties? leaving parental home, marriage behavior Characteristics: YES cause and effect? early school leaving because of marriage intentions Note: Almost convergence of fertility patterns within one immigrant generation a European pattern of immigrant integration?

18 Questions? Comments? Thanks!