Migrate to invest? An Analysis of Direct and Indirect Effects of International Migration on Personal Investment in Senegal

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1 Migrate to invest? An Analysis of Direct and Indirect Effects of International Migration on Personal Investment in Senegal Cora Mezger Cris Beauchemin INED, Paris Entre parcours de vie des migrants & attentes politiques, quel co développement en Afrique subsaharienne? Dakar, 21 Novembre 2009 Cette table ronde a bénéficié du soutien de:

2 Introduction A core idea of Co dev : Migrants as essential actors of development in origin countries, especially through investments. Expectation that migrants invest in «productive assets» Objective: to study whether international migration triggers investments in land, housing or businesses Are international migrants and returnees more likely to invest in Senegal than individuals who did not migrate? (direct effect) Is migration experience an investment booster for people who are usually disadvantaged? (social mobility) Are non migrants with access to a migrant network more likely to invest than non migrants without any migrant network? (indirect effect)

3 Data and Methods Biographic data, using all MAFE Senegal samples (Senegal, France, Italy and Spain) What we want to explain: 1st investment in an asset (in Senegal & not inherited) Types of assets: plots of land (building plot, or under construction) housing units (house, apartment ) business, venture, commercial premises even on a rental basis (shop, workshop, taxis ) Explanatory variables of interest Migration status: non migrant / migrant / return migrant Migrant network: broad definition / narrower definitions Dynamic approach accounting for all changes during the lifetime

4 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 40% Higher asset ownership rates among migrants and returnees? More migrants and returnees than nonmigrants own at least one asset 19% 25% 15% 10% 5% 0% At least one asset Construction land House Business 6% Current migrant in Europe Return migrant Non-migrant

5 Higher asset ownership rates among migrants and returnees? 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 40% Same pattern for land and housing, but 19% 25% 10% 5% 0% At least one asset Construction land House Business 6% Current migrant in Europe Return migrant Non-migrant

6 Higher asset ownership rates among migrants and returnees? 45% 40% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 19% 25% more returnees than current migrants own a business At least one asset Construction land House Business 6% Current migrant in Europe Return migrant Non-migrant

7 Does personal experience of migration influence the odds of investing? Nonmigrant International migration stimulates investment, for current migrants and return migrants Any type of asset (Model 1) Current migrant Return migrant 2,1*** 2,1*** Odds Ratios Control variables not shown White bars: estimates not stat. significant

8 Is there any specialization in terms of investment? Land (Model 2a) Housing (Model 2b) Business (Model 2c) Non migrant Current migrant Return migrant Non migrant Current migrant Return migrant Non migrant Current migrant Return migrant 2,4** 1,2 3,1*** 2,0** Current migrants invest in housing and 0,8 land 2,0** Odds Ratios Control variables not shown White bars: estimates not stat. significant

9 Is there any specialization in terms of investment? Land (Model 2a) Housing (Model 2b) Business (Model 2c) Non migrant Current migrant Return migrant Non migrant Current migrant Return migrant Non migrant Current migrant Return migrant returnees in housing and businesses 0,8 2,4** 1,2 3,1*** 2,0** 2,0** Odds Ratios Control variables not shown White bars: estimates not stat. significant

10 Does migration boost investments of disadvantaged individuals? Gender Non Migrant (Model 3a) Male Female Women who did not migrate are much less likely to invest than men but face no disadvantage with regard to men if they migrated 0,4*** Migrant (model 4a) Male Female 0,8 Odds Ratios Control variables not shown White bars: estimates not stat. significant

11 Does migration boost investments of disadvantaged people? Education Non Migrant (Model 3a) No educ' Prim' educ' Sec' educ' Tert' educ' 1,0 1,7*** 1,9** No educ' Migrant (model 4a) Prim' educ' Sec' educ' Tert' educ' 0,7* 0,9 1,2 Higher educated non migrants are much more likely to invest which is not the case among migrants

12 Do non migrants invest more when they have a migrant network? Broad network (model 3a) Strong vs. weak (model 3b) Location (model 3c) No network Any migrant network No network Children or siblings Other relationship No network In Senegal Abroad Having access to a migrant network does not increase the chances to invest Gender (model 3d) No network At least one woman No women Odds Ratios Control variables not shown White bars: estimates not stat. significant

13 Do non migrants invest more when they have a specific migrant network? Broad network (model 3a) Strong vs. weak (model 3b) Location (model 3c) No network Any migrant network No network Children or siblings Other relationship No network In Senegal Abroad no effect, whatever the type of network Gender (model 3d) No network At least one woman No women Odds Ratios Control variables not shown White bars: estimates not stat. significant

14 Does the network effect depend on the type of asset? Land (model 5a) No network Any migrant network No effect, whatever the type of asset Housing (model 5b) No network Any migrant network Business (model 5c) No network Any migrant network Odds Ratios Control variables not shown White bars: estimates not stat. significant

15 Conclusion Direct effect & social mobility There is a direct effect of migration that varies according to the type of asset and the migratory status Return migrants business Migrants abroad real estate that seems to reduce the gap for people usually disadvantaged Females, low levels of education Migration social mobility?

16 Conclusion Indirect effect There is no evidence for an effect of migrant networks on non migrants personal investments But migrants may still support non migrants: Who may use migrant s assets (housing, employment) Who may inherit/receive assets from migrants or return migrants in their family Other channels for direct support to social networks at origin (migrants associations, community investments) Also: Spillover effects of migrants investments possible (employment in construction )

17 Further research What features of the migration experience influence whether migrants invest in land/housing vs. business activities? Do not invest at all? Effect of the duration of the stay abroad? Legal status? Integration conditions? Circulation? At stake: public policies to influence investments behaviours taking into account the equalizing role of migration.

18 Thank you!

19 Methods (1) At one point in time using information at the time of the survey % of individuals owning at least one asset in Senegal in 2008 Comparing non migrants / returnees / current migrants Throughout time using biographic information A dynamic approach, taking account of all changes during the lifetime, to explain investment precisely at the time of acquisition (time varying variables) Isolate the net effect of migration using a multi variate approach (controlling for other factors) Technically: various discrete time duration models (logit), applied to person year datasets, with independent variables at the individual, family and contextual levels, including unobservables (random effects)

20 Devaluation effect? Non-Migrant (Model 3a) Migrant (model 4a) Before after 2000 Before after ,6*

21 How was the «migrant network» captured? (1) Now I would like to talk with you about the countries where your family members or the members of your personal network have lived Since you were born: Has your father already lived for at least a year outside Ghana? Yes / No mother one or several of your brothers / sisters one of your partners or previous partners one or several of your children other relatives or close friends you could count on, or could have counted on to take you in, or help you to migrate out of Senegal?

22 How was the «migrant network» captured? (2) For each person with a migration experience out of Senegal, indication of: the sex of the person the relationship between this person and the respondent If the person is a friend or a partner: Since when do you know this person? the migration history (country / year) 1st country: When did he or she start living in a country outside Ghana? In which country was that? And until when did he/she live in that country? 2nd country: And then, in which country did he/she live for at least one year? Until when did he/she stay in that country? Etc.

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