CONTENTS: bul BULGARIAN LABOUR MIGRATION, DESK RESEARCH, 2015

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2 2 CONTENTS: 1. METHODOLOGY... 3 a. Survey characteristics... 3 b. Purpose of the study... 3 c. Methodological notes DESK RESEARCH... 4 A. Bulgarian emigration tendencies and destinations... 4 i. Bulgaria country of emigration or immigration... 4 ii. Emigration in the context of economic development... 5 iii. Countries of destination for Bulgarian emigrants... 6 iv. Who is the current garian emigrant?... 8 B. Bulgarian immigrants in the Netherlands... 8 i. Immigration from garia - dynamics and comparison... 8 ii. Profile of the Bulgarians immigrating to the Netherlands... 1 C. Key findings... 12

3 3 1. METHODOLOGY A. SURVEY CHARACTERISTICS Period of implementation Methodology Desk research Information sources National Statistical Institute, Bulgaria (NSI) World Bank Eurostat Statistics Netherlands Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) The Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Germany Dutch Scientific Council for Government Policy (WRR) Dutch Social and Cultural Planning office (SCP) Main research topics Emigration flow from Bulgaria (27 214) Countries of destination for Bulgaria emigrants Profile of Bulgarian emigrants abroad Emigration flow to the Netherlands Profile of the Bulgarian emigrant in the Netherlands B. PURPOSE OF THE STUDY The main research objectives and tasks of the study are: to collect and summarize the fragmented (in many different sources) information about the labor/social migrants from Bulgaria. to outline the overall picture of emigration processes in Bulgaria emigration flows and factors to explore the profile and preferences of the Bulgarian emigrant C. METHODOLOGICAL NOTES The precise research of the topic requires the highlight of certain limitation regarding the available datasets: First of all, to perceive the complex process of emigration we must grasp the data as a meaningful instrument and carefully analyze and apply it for further conclusions. Therefore, in this second report we have differentiated between two basic types of emigration permanent and temporary/seasonal. On the second place, the only and most logical source of information about Bulgarian emigrants (people, leaving the country to live abroad) is the National statistics. However, what NSI includes in their database regarding emigration is the number of people who changed their current address to another one abroad. This means that as a whole temporary/seasonal

4 4 migration is not a subject of the statistics. For that reason the data regarding the total number of emigrants (by years) will be interpreted as describing permanent migration flows. Based on this data, an approximate temporary flows can be estimated (given the calculated ratio in the quantitative survey 1:2,5/3 permanent : temporary emigration flows). 2. DESK RESEARCH FINDINGS A. BULGARIAN EMIGRATION TENDENCIES AND DESTINATIONS I. BULGARIA COUNTRY OF EMIGRATION OR IMMIGRATION According to the National Strategy in the field of migration, asylum and integration (211-22) in recent years the Republic of Bulgaria gradually and sustainably transforms from a country of emigration through a transit country, to a country attracting immigration. Data from the World Bank statistics show that net migration1 in Bulgaria decreased more than seven times during the period Net migration in Bulgaria (five year estimates): Indeed, there is an intensification of the Source: World Bank immigration flows to the country. In recent years (since 212) the national statistics reports that nearly 2% of the yearly emigration flow is formed by foreigners (people, currently residing in Bulgaria who are not Bulgarian citizens). However, the presence of emigrating immigrants is a sign that the observed increase in the immigration flows to Bulgaria is a result of a temporary residence. The country is often used as a transit destination and a corridor to western European countries. Moreover, the last few years are marked by extremely intensified refugee and asylum flows, moving from the Middle East through Lebanon, Turkey, Bulgaria and aiming at reaching Western Europe or the US. Therefore, it is obvious that the figures indicate more complicated processes than they might seem, as ultimately Bulgaria remains in the grip of increasing emigration flows. The profile of Bulgaria is still shaped by a constant emigration flow, deepening demographic crisis and ageing of the population. The emigration processes are triggered to a large extent by the stagnation in the economic development. 1 Net migration is the net total of migrants during the period, that is, the total number of immigrants less the annual number of emigrants, including both citizens and noncitizens. Data are five-year estimates.

5 5 In the period more than 1 Bulgarian citizens emigrated permanently from Bulgaria, which makes about 15 people every year. The census from 211 reports that Bulgarians who are living, working or studying in foreign countries amount to 2.1 million people. Some unofficial data in publications on this topic suggest that their supposed number is already close to 3 million people Source: NSI Emigrants from Bulgaria leaving the country by years : Total 1937 BG citizens II. II. EMIGRATION IN THE CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT The last 7-8 years since the Bulgaria s accession to the EU are featured by two main changes that have direct impact on the intensification of emigration flows from Bulgaria the opening of EU labor markets for Bulgarian citizen, as well as the global financial and economic recession. According to the National Statistical Institute of Bulgaria in 214 almost 24 Bulgarian emigraints leaving the country by years : Unemployment (%) BG citizens emigrated (in thousands) LABOR MARKET OPENINGS Bulgarian citizens have left the country 3 (and changed their current address in 27,7 another country abroad). However, it 25 23,8 can be assumed that their actual number is quite higher if counting the non-registered (seasonal/temporary residents in foreign countries). The majority of the registered emigrants choose their new country of residence in ,9 2,9 2,1 5,7 19, 6,9 1,3 11,4 9,5 12,4 13,6 16, 13, 11,4 the EU (about 7-8%). The official data from NSI show that there is a pick in the emigration levels in 29, Sources: Eurostat, NSI

6 6 two years after the accession of Bulgaria in the EU, followed by a sudden decrease in 211 and a continuous rise in the following three years (212, 213, 214). As indicated in the above chart, the periods of increasing emigration flows are closely linked to the opening of attractive labor markets for Bulgarian citizens (Greece and Spain in 29, Germany and Austria in May, 211, Italy in 212, UK, Belgium and the Netherlands in 214). The dropdown, however, is clearly a result of the economic situation (stagnation) not only in Bulgaria, but all around Europe, especially in Spain and Greece (two of the preferred destinations for Bulgarian emigrants) where the unemployment has started to grow since 29 and has reached up to 26-27% in 213. III. COUNTRIES OF DESTINATION FOR BULGARIAN EMIGRANTS The national statistics outlines the most significant destinations of emigration flows from Bulgaria. In 213 the largest number of Bulgarian emigrants moved changing their current address to Spain (2 781), Germany (2 489) and Italy (1989). However, those numbers must be referred mainly to the permanent migration, as the quantitative survey clearly shows that Spain is transforming into a destination for permanent migration, while Germany, UK, Italy and Greece still attract a large number of temporary emigrants. Spain Germany Netherlands Austria Top 5 Bulgarian communities in the countries, members of the Council of Europe*: Italy Rissian Federation Source: NSI Germany Netherlands Source: NSI Top 1 destinations for Bulgarian emigrants in 213*: Spain Italy UK Greece France Belgium USA The statistics also registers the total number of Bulgarian citizens, registered in countries from the Council of Europe 2. According to this data the top 5 Bulgarian communities in the member states are in Spain (147 39), Germany (almost 127 ), Italy (about 5 ), the Netherlands (17 15), and Austria (14 199). However, some recent reports and estimations state that Bulgarian diaspora in those popular EU destinations is quite Data for

7 7 larger in size about 19 Bulgarians in Germany 3, more than 3 in Spain 4. The National Statistics has also reported about 3 Bulgarian emigrants in Greece, and about 1 in the UK. Besides, there are some large Bulgarian communities in countries outside the EU Turkey (nearly 5, almost all of Turkish ethnic origin), USA (3 ), Canada (7 ). The most preferred destination for university education from the young Bulgarian have been UK (with 7 45 Bulgarian students in tertiary education in 212) and Germany (7 195). Bulgarian citizens studying in tertiary education in the Netherlands were 1637 in 212. Although their number has been gradually increasing since 27 (when there were 488 people of Bulgarian origin in tertiary education there), the Netherlands stays out of top 5 countries in the EU, attracting Bulgarian students. Yet, according to euinside.eu 5 Bulgaria is the fourth most important country of origin of foreign students in the Netherlands after Germany, China and Belgium. Referring to a WRR-Policy Brief, the e-portal is also stating that despite the large number of Bulgarian students in the Netherlands, most of them return to their home country, because they do not feel at home in the Netherlands. The publication further explains that their return is a problem for the hosting country because Bulgarians are attractive for the Netherlands with their high qualifications (21% are highly qualified). Source: OECD Non-citizen students of Bulgarian origin studying in tertiary education in EU countries* in 212: UK Germany Austria France Spain Non-citizen students of Bulgarian origin studying in tertiary education in the Netherlands: Source: OECD 3 Institut für Arbeitsmarkt und Berufsforschung 4 The Spanish Embassy in Sofia 5

8 8 IV. WHO IS THE CURRENT BULGARIAN EMIGRANT? According to the National Statistical Institute the majority of Bulgarian emigrants who left the country in 213 (55%) were young people between 2-39 years old. Another 22% are in active age (4-59), 14% are children and youths up to 19 years old. The ratio between men and women among them is exactly 5:5. The highest are the shares of young people (2-39 years old) in the emigrant flows toward UK, the Netherlands, and Greece, while Germany and Italy have attracted more people above Bulgarian emigrants leaving the country in 213 by age group (%): 8 All destinations In the Netherlands Source: NSI B. BULGARIAN IMMIGRANTS IN THE NETHERLANDS I. IMMIGRATION FROM BULGARIA - DYNAMICS AND COMPARISON According to Statistics Netherlands the total number of Bulgarian immigrants in the Netherlands in 214 is Their number has been gradually rising since 27, when there were about 46 Bulgarians in the country. However, the opening of the Dutch labor market for Bulgarians and Romanians has not changed the picture significantly. On the contrary, short reviews of the statistics state that the number of Romanians who came to live in the Netherlands has doubled Total number of immigrants from Bulgarian and Romania in the Netherlands by years: Bulgaria Source: Statistics Netherlands Romania 6 According to the WRR these numbers must include between 34 and 44 Bulgarians and add between 62 and 72 to the number of Romanians to account for temporary emigration.

9 9 compared to the first half of 213, to just over 2.3 thousand, while the number of Bulgarians has not risen. And yet, the number of Bulgarian workers in the Netherlands has doubled for just a year. On 1 July 214, the number of Bulgarian workers amounted to 3.9 thousand, versus about 1.6 thousand at the end of 213. About 1/3 of those workers were not registered in the municipal administration (GBA) which means that they are not going to stay long. Given the results from the quantitative research and the fact that Bulgarian (as well as Polish and Romanian) labor immigrants are not obliged to register in the municipal population registers, it can be assumed that the number of those planning to stay temporary is even higher Number of Bulgarian workers registered and non-registered in the municipal administration in the Netherlands(%): non-gba GBA jun Source: Statistics Netherlands The reported growth of Bulgarian workers in the Netherlands is probably a direct consequence of the growing number of registration records since the current labor market opening. It contributed to the further light shedding on the grey sector in the immigration communities. WRR is also suggesting that since January 214 Romanians and Bulgarians will become a more visible category in the migration statistics now that they are able to register as legal workers. The annual immigration flow from Bulgaria to the Netherlands has varied between 4,2 and 5,3 people. In Bulgarians immigrated to the Netherlands, which is less than 3% of total immigration flow to the country, and about 6% of the flow from the EU, according to the official data of Statistics Netherlands. The main countries of citizenship of the foreign foreign-born population in the Netherlands in 213 were Turkey, Poland and Germany, as well as Morocco and the UK Annual number of immigrants in the Netherlands by years*: 92,3 26,3 Total From the EU (27) From Bulgaria 11,2 3,4,4,5 116,8 42,6 143,5 146,4 154,4 163, 158,4 54, 52, 58,4 164,8 66,3 67,5 69,3 4,8 5,2 4,3 4,2 5,3 4,9 4, Source: Statistics Netherlands

10 1 Main countries of citizenship of the foreign foreign-born population in the Netherlands in 213 (%): Turkey Poland Germany Morocco United Kingdom Other 11,5 1,4 1,2 7,1 5,8 55 Source: Eurostat II. PROFILE OF THE BULGARIANS IMMIGRATING TO THE NETHERLANDS The majority of Bulgarian immigrants in the Netherlands are in active age 65% are between 2 and 5 years old. The biggest is the share of those ages 2-3 (24%) and 3-4 (25%). Another 27% are children and youths up to 2 years old, the majority of whom have come along with their families. The average age of Bulgarian immigrants in the Netherlands is 28,6 years. Given this young age structure, it is clear that the large majority of them (77%) are not married. Only 19% of the immigrants from Bulgaria are married, another 3% - divorced. The gender structure of Bulgarian immigrants in the Netherlands is similar to that of the Bulgarian citizens in their home country 53:47 female: male. 16 Bulgarian immigrants present in the Netherlands in 214 by age group (%): Average age: 28,6 years Source: Statistics Netherlands

11 11 Those who have registered in the municipal administration (GBA) have mostly found employment through employment agencies (44%, although their share is quite smaller compared to Romanians and Polish workers), 11% have worked in the trade sector, another 8% - in the agriculture. 1/3 of the registered workers from Bulgaria are working in other sectors, often are selfemployed 7. Eastern Europe immigrant workers registers in the municipal registration (GBA) in the Netherlands by type of occupation: Bulgarians Romanians Polish Employed by employment agencies Trade Agriculture Industry Other Source: Statistics Netherlands Although there is no precise statistics on the education level of Bulgarian immigrant in the Netherlands, it is recognized by the official authorities that the majority have a low education level. Yet, according to the WRR there are also some very highly educated Bulgarians there and the Netherlands could place greater value on highly skilled labor and study migrants, including those from Bulgaria. 7 According to the Dutch Social and Cultural Planning office (SCP)

12 12 C. KEY FINDINGS Both the desk research and the quantitative study part of this project contribute to proving several main conclusions: A process of intensifying permanent and temporary emigration flows since 212 is observed that continues developing at relatively predictable rates about 3-4% annual increase. This tendency is quite likely to remain the same during the next 2-3 years; Stabilization of the preferences towards several destinations for emigration and yet, slight rearrangement of top destinations of interest the expressed near future intentions show that Germany and UK are more and more preferred, while Spain is slightly retreating and transforms into a destination for permanent emigration; Stabilization of the emigration flow from Bulgaria to the Netherlands which is not so much influenced by the labor market opening, as that towards the UK; Significant growth in the number of reported Bulgarian workers in the Netherlands generated by the dropping of labor market restrictions, thus lowering the number of illegal workers; The Netherlands is a preferred destination for Bulgarian students in tertiary education. Most of them return back to Bulgaria after graduation; Based on the official data the average annual emigration flow of Bulgarian citizens for the last 7-8 years has been approximately 15 people. However, given the various estimations of foreign public and state offices, unofficial data, as well as the fact that the state statistics does not fully capture temporary migration flows, it can be assumed that the official numbers represent only about 1/3 of the actual emigration flow for Bulgaria.