Immigration, Integration and Return Migration:

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1 LUND UNIVERSITY Department of Economic History SWEDEN Immigration, Integration and Return Migration: The Swedish Experience. Martin Klinthäll, Lund University

2 The importance of return migration Return migration was for long a neglected issue within migration research

3 The importance of return migration Return migration was for long a neglected issue within migration research Return rates among labor migrants frequently higher than 50 %.

4 The importance of return migration Return migration was for long a neglected issue within migration research Return rates among labor migrants frequently higher than 50 % Large social, economic and cultural impact

5 1990s: An increased interest Refugee crises after the end of Cold War

6 1990s: An increased interest Refugee crises after the end of Cold War Economic downturn in receiving countries

7 1990s: An increased interest Refugee crises after the end of Cold War Economic downturn in receiving countries Search for new refugee reception models

8 1990s: An increased interest Refugee crises after the end of Cold War Economic downturn in receiving countries Search for new refugee reception models Focus on temporary protection

9 1990s: An increased interest Shortage of high-skilled workers

10 1990s: An increased interest Shortage of high-skilled workers New labor migration flows

11 1990s: An increased interest Shortage of high-skilled workers New labor migration flows Population aging

12 Rates of return migration have decreased since the early 70s Restrictions on labor immigration

13 Rates of return migration have decreased since the early 70s Restrictions on labor immigration Increased refugee immigration

14 Rates of return migration have decreased since the early 70s Restrictions on labor immigration Increased refugee immigration Gradual change in the composition of immigrant populations

15 Accumulated rates of return migration from Sweden by immigration cohort and years since immigration Non-Nordic

16 Accumulated rates of return migration from Sweden by immigration cohort and years since immigration Non-Nordic

17 Accumulated rates of return migration from Sweden by immigration cohort and years since immigration Non-Nordic

18 Accumulated rates of return migration from Sweden by immigration cohort and years since immigration Nordic Non-Nordic

19 Accumulated rates of return migration from Sweden by immigration cohort and years since immigration Nordic Non-Nordic

20 Accumulated rates of return migration from Sweden by immigration cohort and years since immigration Nordic Non-Nordic

21 GDP per capita , Finland and Sweden 1990 international dollars Finland Sweden

22 GDP per capita , Denmark and Sweden 1990 international dollars Denmark Sweden

23 GDP per capita , Norway and Sweden 1990 international dollars Norway Sweden

24 Permanent residence rights Temporary residence rights Voluntary migration Forced migration

25 Permanent residence rights Temporary residence rights Voluntary migration Labor migrants Forced migration

26 Permanent residence rights Temporary residence rights Voluntary migration Labor migrants Guest workers Forced migration

27 Permanent residence rights Temporary residence rights Voluntary migration Labor migrants Guest workers Forced migration Permanent asylum

28 Permanent residence rights Temporary residence rights Voluntary migration Labor migrants Guest workers Forced migration Permanent asylum Temporary protection

29 Probability of return migration from Sweden by income category. Odds ratios. Greece, Turkey and Yugoslavia Income category Low Medium-low Medium Medium-high High Odds ratio P-value (reference)

30 Probability of return migration from Sweden by income category. Odds ratios. Germany and the United States Income category Low Medium-low Medium Medium-high High Odds ratio P-value (reference)

31 Accumulated rates of Greek return migration from Sweden by immigrant cohort and years since immigration

32 Accumulated rates of Turkish return migration from Sweden by immigrant cohort and years since immigration

33 Conditional probability of return migration from Sweden by years since immigration, country of origin and immigration cohort. Cohort 1 = Cohort 2 = ,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0, Iran1 Iran2

34 Conditional probability of return migration from Sweden by years since immigration, country of origin and immigration cohort. Cohort 1 = Cohort 2 = ,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0, Iran1 Iran2 Poland1 Poland2

35 Conditional probability of return migration from Sweden by years since immigration, country of origin and immigration cohort. Cohort 1 = Cohort 2 = ,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0, Chile2 Iran1 Iran2 Poland1 Poland2

36 Conditional probability of return migration from Sweden by years since immigration, country of origin and immigration cohort. Cohort 1 = Cohort 2 = ,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0, Chile1 Chile2 Iran1 Iran2 Poland1 Poland2

37 Unemployment rates , Chile, Poland and Sweden. Percent of the workforce Chile Poland Sweden

38 Conclusion Return migration highly sensitive to economic circumstances -- refugee return migration too! --political as well as economic security needed for return migrants

39 Conclusion Immigration and return migration generally positively selected -- development potential!

40 Conclusion Low impact of migration on age structure of host societies -- Return migration decreases the effect of immigration on age structure of host societies

41 Conclusion Temporary residence models lead to economic inefficiency -- hampers economic integration of immigrants -- may even hinder return migration

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