November 2013 European seaports: the growing logistics opportunity
2 Advance - European Seaports London Gateway
Advance - European Seaports 3 Introduction Since the publication of our original white paper European Seaports: Future Logistics Hotspots in 2008, the world has gone through a deep recession followed by an uneven recovery. Despite challenging economic conditions, global container throughput managed to fully recover in just one year following the 14% fall in 2009, while long-term projections indicate continuing growth. Although there remain downside risks, such as weaker economic growth in emerging markets, European ports will continue to be under pressure to deliver additional capacity for growing container volumes. Many of the drivers impacting on maritime transport explored in our 2008 report remain in place. However, some trends have intensified over the past few years and a new hierarchy of port locations has started to emerge across Europe. In this short paper we provide a high-level update on the European container port landscape, how it is changing and the impact these changes will have on logistics real estate markets. Key take-aways The importance of container sea ports in global supply chains is increasing due to renewed growth in world trade and container throughput, along with changes in global supply chains. The competition between ports is intensifying as they strive to attract shipping lines and cargo owners. More and more, the competitive advantage of a port is determined by nautical accessibility, cargo handling capacity, the provision of valueadding services and efficient multi-modal hinterland connections. Port-centric logistics is gaining momentum as a source of competitive advantage for cargo owners, as they increasingly recognise the benefits that can be derived from locating distribution facilities at, or close to, the ports through which they import or export. 80% of global trade in volumes terms is handled through seaports worldwide 74% of EU trade is transported by ship These factors are combining to drive increasing demand for port-centric logistics real estate, although how this demand will unfold will vary depending on the location and attributes of different ports, and the availability of suitable land for development. This evolving logistics landscape will drive new opportunities for port owners/operators, cargo owners, real estate developers and investors.
4 Advance - European Seaports The role of container seaports is becoming increasingly important in global supply chains Renewed growth in world trade, along with a number of global mega trends, is adding additional complexity to global supply chains. Seaports are the main gateways for this trade and are increasingly becoming the focus of global supply chain strategies. Global container port throughput rose from around 90 million TEU in 1990 to 590 million TEU in 2012, an increase of more than 550%. This steady increase was only interrupted following the global financial crisis in 2009 when container volumes fell 14%. This loss was recovered a year later and overall port throughput has returned to unbroken growth ever since. The latest forecasts from industry experts indicate that global container port volumes could double by 2030, although average annual growth of 3% to 5% would mark a slowdown over past growth rates. Much of this growth will take place in Asian ports. Even so, European container port throughput is still expected to increase by more than 50% by 2030, from 95 million TEU in 2012 to around 150 million TEU in 2030. Evolution of European Port Container Throughput Source: Alphaliner, Drewry Shipping Consultants, Hamburg Port Authority, local port websites 160 140 120 Million TEU 80 60 40 20 0 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2030
Advance - European Seaports 5 Increasing competition between ports Europe s port landscape is changing In 2012, 58% of total European container port throughput was concentrated in just 10 ports, up from 30% in 2001, with the share of the top three ports remaining stable at close to onethird. Despite this growing concentration of port throughput, changing dynamics in maritime transport, along with increasing feeder services from larger transhipment hubs to smaller ports, is nurturing a shifting port landscape. In the last two years, throughput growth has been led in particular by a number of Baltic Sea ports where economic growth, along with portside and landside infrastructure improvements, has sustained increasing throughput. In contrast, significant growth in ports around the Mediterranean and the UK has mainly been driven by recovering volumes following slowing activity in the years prior to 2010. The competitive advantage of a port is increasingly determined by a number of physical conditions: nautical accessibility, cargo handling capacity and efficient multi-modal hinterland infrastructure. In addition, warehouse real estate that supports the provision of value-adding services and economic growth in a port s direct hinterland is often a decisive factor in attracting shipping lines and cargo owners. Going forward, growth across European container ports will continue to be highly diverse. Some locations will benefit more from new trade patterns than others, as only a limited number of larger ports offer the full range of winning attributes. Meanwhile, many smaller ports are likely to benefit from growing feeder traffic thanks to their proximity to important customer markets. Port Throughput Growth Rates 2010-2012 Source: Hamburg Port Authority, Drewry Shipping Consultants, local port websites < 0% 0-10% 10-20% Hamina-Kolka St Petersburg > 20% Gothenburg Riga Tilbury Thamesport Liverpool Felixstowe Southampton Zeebrugge Le Havre Bremen Rotterdam Antwerp Hamburg Gdynia Klaipeda Gdansk Lisbon Genoa Marseilles Barcelona Valencia La Spezia Livorno Koper Naples Novorssirsk Constanta Amnarli Algeciras Cagliari Gioia Tauro Plareus Izmir Mersin Marsaxlokk
6 Advance - European Seaports Drivers of change Different economic growth dynamics Continued strong economic growth across Central and Eastern Europe is leading to a growing middle class which will drive retail sales and therefore sustain increasing inland-bound traffic into the region. This is likely to benefit Baltic, Black Sea and East Mediterranean ports in close proximity to their respective consumer markets, as well as those gateway hubs offering excellent infrastructure connections into those regions. The evolution of container ships TEU: twenty-foot equivalent units, length x width x depth below water in metres Source: The Geography of Transport Systems, Jean-Paul Rodrigue Early container ship (1956-) 500 800 TEU, 137 x 17 x 9 m Economies of scale: ultra-large container ships - nautical access and portside infrastructure Fully Celluar (1970-) 1000 2500 TEU, 215 x 32 x 12.5 m Shipping lines are seeking the benefits of efficiency and economics of scale to minimise costs by introducing larger ships. In our 2008 report, we highlighted that the first 15,000 TEU ships would become operative by 2010 and that shipping lines were already eyeing the potential of an 18,000 TEU class. The first 18,000 TEU Malacca-Max ship was introduced this year and shipping lines now envisage further extending ship capacity to 20,000 TEU. Panamax Max (1985-) 3400 4500 TEU, 290 x 32 x 12.5 m Post Panamax (1988-) 4000 5000 TEU, 285 x 40 x 13 m Indeed, based on Alphaliner s latest order book data, the share of ships carrying in excess of 10,000 TEUs is forecast to increase from 13% in 2012 to almost 20% by 2016. These ships would be able to carry half of today s global maritime trade. According to shipping industry experts, ships of this size require a minimum of 14 metres depth operating capacity (as opposed to 15.5 metres officially quoted by ship designs), extended berth length, adequate port turning cycles and specialised portside cargo handling equipment. Post Panamax Plus (2000-) 6000 8000 TEU, 300 x 43 x 14.5 m New Panamax (2014-) 12500 TEU, 366 x 49 x 15.2 m However, very few ports will be capable of accommodating these mega ships due to restrictions in nautical access, port handling capacity and adequate landside transport infrastructure. This will increasingly drive the bulk of cargo through a limited number of gateway ports. Triple-E (2013-) 18000 TEU, 400 x 59 x 15.5 m
Advance - European Seaports 7 New shipping routes: the partial opening of the Arctic Northeast Passage The impact of the Panama Canal extension on shipping routes and consequently ports, primarily along the US coast, has been widely discussed (see also research by Jones Lang LaSalle: Panama Canal s impact on U.S. industrial real estate). By contrast, the fact that climate change has made the Arctic Northeast Passage a route to the north of Russia through the Bering Strait, East Siberian Sea and Vilkitsky Strait - accessible for maritime transport during parts of the year has so far gone largely unnoticed. Yet, this could have an important impact as it significantly reduces the maritime distance between Asia and Europe and is likely to shift the focus back on North Range ports (from Le Havre to Hamburg). The first ship on this route completed the journey between South Korea s Busan port and Rotterdam in only 21 days, almost two weeks shorter than the traditional Suez Canal route. Arctic route vs. Suez Canal route Meanwhile, another alternative route, the so called New Silk Road, the inland rail connection between mainland China and Duisburg in Germany, offers a similar fast connection (approximately three weeks of transit) and eliminates infrastructure hurdles from China s inland factories to its coastal region. Although now in regular service, cargo volumes remain tiny compared to today s mega-ships and do not represent serious competition to Europe s ports.
8 Advance - European Seaports Infrastructure development Large-scale investment in port and hinterland infrastructure will be necessary to tackle the implications of increasing traffic, larger ship sizes, and required hinterland connectivity. A large number of seaports across Europe, including established gateway hubs as well as smaller regionally-focused ports, have put in place a series of ambitious expansion plans and infrastructure developments. Europe s three largest ports (Rotterdam, Antwerp and Hamburg) are working to significantly increase capacity: Maasvlakte 2 at Rotterdam will be fully operational by end 2014, increasing the port s container annual handling capacity to around 25 million TEU; Maasvlake 2 Distripark will provide additional significant potential for port-centric facilities; Hamburg plans to upgrade its infrastructure and enhance efficiency at its terminals, and is exploring a number of development sites for potential expansion to boost annual capacity to 25 million TEU by 2025; and Antwerp plans to develop new facilities along with new hinterland infrastructure over the next 15 years. Along the Baltic, Black Sea and East Mediterranean coastlines, several developments are planned and most provide significant potential for port-centric development. Examples include: a new deep-sea terminal at Gdansk in Poland, adding an additional 3.0 million TEU capacity, and around 500,000 sq m of port-centric logistics directly adjacent; a new deep-sea port at Lake Donuzlav in the Ukraine, which is to be built on the site of existing port Yuzhny along with significant hinterland infrastructure development to facilitate trade between the Ukraine and Asia. A further significant impact on the future European port landscape will come from two major new port developments, namely Wilhelmshaven s JadeWeserPort in Germany and London Gateway, on the north bank of the river Thames just 40km east of Central London. Both schemes offer unrestricted deep-sea access and the newest port equipment to handle mega-ships. The first berth of the port at London Gateway has just opened. The port will have an ultimate annual capacity of 3.5 million TEU when fully built out; the adjacent London Gateway Logistics Park provides 860,000 sq m of logistics development potential. The first phase of JadeWeserPort became operational in mid-2012 offering an initial 2.7 million TEU capacity that could be expanded to a maximum of 10.8 million TEU in three future phases; in addition 160 ha are currently under development for logistics and industrial services with land for expansion available during the future phases. Many port locations across the West Mediterranean are planning improvements to their portside and landside infrastructure, and some are increasing the number of feeder connections, in particular towards North Africa. However, growth in inland-bound traffic is likely to remain limited when compared to ports elsewhere as many of these ports are mainly transhipment hubs. port and landside infrastructure improvements at the port of Rijeka in Croatia including an intermodal terminal and logistics complex; a minimum of seven new terminals along the Turkish coast with a combined capacity in excess of 7.0 million TEU while, the Transportation and Communication Strategy 2023 commits the government to significant multi-modal and logistics infrastructure development; and Only 20 European ports are currently able to accommodate 18,000 TEU ships; most are located along the Northern European coastline.
Advance - European Seaports 9 Port-centric logistics is rapidly gaining momentum The introduction of the container has not only impacted the shipping industry. The relative ease of moving containers inland, coupled with low transport costs, has encouraged the development of distribution centres at greater distances from ports. This location strategy requires containers to be moved inland with an additional back-journey to the port to return empty containers. However, significantly increased transport costs, along with rising road congestion, is leading cargo owners or their logistics providers to rethink this location strategy. Port-centric logistics, whereby facilities are set up at or close to a port, is becoming increasingly important due to a growing recognition of its supply chain benefits which include: reduced transport costs; increased certainty of delivery times/speed-to-market; reduced risk of damage; responsiveness to increasing environmental pressure; and better capacity utilisation by permitting cargo owners to fully load containers which, if transferred to large goods vehicles, would in some cases exceed the maximum permitted weight for road transport. However, the port-centric approach is not applicable for all supply chains or port destinations. For example, there are no particular benefits at transhipment hubs with no or minimal gateway traffic moving into the hinterland.
10 Advance - European Seaports A new wave of port-centric logistics real estate demand The growing importance of port-centric logistics is increasingly recognised by port owners/operators who have started to embrace the promotion of port-centric logistics development to boost competitive advantage. Planned warehouse development at or adjacent to ports - or at inland ports directly connected via barge or rail - has already started to intensify and, over the next few years, significant new warehouse supply could come on stream. Jones Lang LaSalle estimates that warehouse stock within the regions of ports that had an annual throughput of over 500,000 TEU in 2012 (excluding ports that are predominantly transhipment hubs) amounts to over 50 million sq m, which is more than 20% of the estimated total European stock. Clearly, not all of this stock is directly linked to port activities, but as ports usually have substantial economic impacts on their wider regions, we can assume that a sizeable amount of this stock is related to maritime supply chains. How much port-centric warehouse demand will be generated is clearly dependent on how far the adoption of port-centric logistics will drive relocation to ports or well-connected inland ports. However, by comparing existing stock with today s port throughput, a projected increase to around 150 million TEU by 2030 would be likely to generate demand for between 20 to 30 million sq m of additional warehouse space to 2030 - excluding additional relocation demand. Not all port locations offer the opportunity for significant real estate development as they suffer from land restrictions directly adjacent to the port. Real estate development linked to these ports may therefore need to move to a more distant location. To provide the benefits of port-centric facilities, these areas need to be directly connected to the port via rail or barge, which is the case with many inland ports that offer multi-modal connections. Select port-centric logistics operations and their benefits Tesco Teesport, UK: cutting about 12,000 lorry journeys a year Asda Teesport, UK: saving an annual 12 million on supply chain costs along with 2 million road miles Marks & Spencer - London Gateway, UK (under negotiation): serving as a hub for 50% of the retailer s UK stores and shortening the time from port to store from two weeks to three days Sumitomo Warehouse - Antwerp, Belgium: shifting to more barge transport to avoid delays that occur on roads NYK Logistics - Gothenburg, Sweden: allowing for a more efficient distribution of imported goods throughout Scandinavia Canon Rotterdam, Netherlands: looking at the possibility to develop a 70,000 sq m facility at Maasvlakte 2 Distripark in order to improve supply chain efficiency In contrast, new deep-sea container ports and many of the smaller Baltic, Black Sea and East Mediterranean ports offer significant port-centric logistics development opportunities, which are often directly promoted through port owners/operators. As a result, these locations will increasingly come into the focus of shipping lines, cargo owners and logistics service providers.
Advance - European Seaports 11 Implications for port owners/operators, cargo owners, real estate developers and investors Changing dynamics in maritime transport, along with the expected growth in containerised port throughput and inland-bound traffic, will put significant pressure on governments, local municipalities and port and terminal owners/operators to provide the required capacity and infrastructure to support this growth. Port and terminal owners/operators need to recognise the growing importance of the availability of warehouse real estate as a factor influencing port choice, and work with real estate developers to provide well-connected real estate supply in order to attract shipping lines and cargo owners to their ports. Cargo owners should evaluate the opportunities for port-centric logistics to see if, and where, they can realise supply chain benefits. Real estate developers and investors should consider investing in and around port locations but also recognise that, in a changing and more competitive port landscape, some ports are better positioned to win than others. Further suggested reading from Jones Lang LaSalle:
Business Contacts Philip Marsden EMEA Head of Logistics & Industrial London +44 (0)207 087 5390 philip.marsden@eu.jll.com Report Contacts Alexandra Tornow Associate Director EMEA Research Frankfurt +49 (0)69 2003 1352 alexandra.tornow@eu.jll.com Jon Sleeman Director EMEA Research London +44 (0)20 7087 5515 jon.sleeman@eu.jll.com November 2013 Advance publications are topic-driven white papers from Jones Lang LaSalle that focus on key real estate and business issues. www.joneslanglasalle.eu COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2013. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. We would like to be told of any such errors in order to correct them.