GIS-based location analyses for intermodal terminal landscape in Belgium

Transcription

1 GIS-based location analyses for intermodal terminal landscape in Belgium Ethem Pekin Promotor: Prof. Dr. Cathy Macharis MOSI Transport en Logistiek

2 Outline Introduction Promoting intermodal transport The LAMBIT methodology Scenario based analysis Conclusions Pag. 2

3 I. Containerisation II. Hinterland III. Policy awareness MOSI Transport en Logistiek 11/12/2008 DSSITP Day 3

4 Containerisation & Intermodalism Containerisation Standardization the box Intermodal loading units Container ships Seaports Intermodalism Intermodal chain Modes and actors Information and communications technologies Intermodal terminals Pag. 4

5 I. Containerisation MOSI Transport en Logistiek

6 Containerisation Pag. 6

7 Generations of containerships Scale increase in container shipping Pag. 7

8 Evolution of container handling Pag. 8

9 Growth of the container traffic containers (TEU) Hamburg Rotterdam Antw erpen Zeebrugge Source: MOSI T based on the statistics of the port authorities Pag. 9

10 Containerisation & Intermodalism Containerisation Standardization the box Intermodal loading units Container ships Seaports Intermodalism Intermodal chain Modes and actors Information and communications technologies Intermodal terminals Pag. 10

11 II. The hinterland MOSI Transport en Logistiek

12 Intermodal chain Intermodal transport: sea port intermodal terminal municipalities Uni-modal road transport: sea port municipalities Source: own setup Pag. 12

13 Intermodal transport organization Source: Savy, Pag. 13

14 Actors Pag. 14

15 Cost structure Inland water/rail Pag. 15

16 Break-even point Costs ( ) Break-even point Road transport Intermodal transport Distance (km) Pag. 16

17 Terminal landscape 2008 Ö #! sea port waterways/road Ö sea sea port port terminal rail/road waterways/road terminal terminal trimodal # rail/road terminal terminal! trimodal terminal ± ± ± Kilometers Kilometers Pag. 17

18 Barge Container terminals (TEU) Source: MOSI T based on the statistics of the PBV Pag. 18

19 Rail/road terminals Pag. 19

20 National Rail Container Network (IFB) 12 shuttle Services between the port and the inland terminals Pag. 20

21 Container Main Hub Pag. 21

22 Container rail transport 350, , ,000 TEU 200, , ,000 50, Rail all Narcon Pag. 22

23 Modal split Modal split container transport Antwerp (basis=teu) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% +0,69 million TEU +1,96 million TEU +2,15 million TEU Rail 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 10% 11% Barge 24% 27% 28% 28% 29% 30% 31% 31% 32% 34% 33% 34% Road 70% 66% 65% 63% 61% 61% 59% 60% 60% 58% 57% 55% Pag. 23

24 III. Policy awareness MOSI Transport en Logistiek

25 Increased policy attention 1. Necessity to open up the ports; 2. Increased influence of the European commission policy; 3. Increased awareness of the external costs of transport; 4. Increased awareness of the economic advantages Pag. 25

26 European policy and regulatory framework 1992 Green Paper Fair pricing White Paper Railways TEN-T Guidelines 1997 White Paper Infrastructure use Regulation Financial support 2001 Proposal ILU 2006 Communication Greening transport Communication Freight logistics action plan White Paper Future of the CTP Communication Intermodality White Paper Time to decide Communication Mid-term review Directive Combined transport rules Decision Financial support Communication Rail freight freeways Green Paper Port infrastructure Pag. 26

27 Intermodal transport policy framework Source: VUB MOSI-T Pag. 27

28 Promoting intermodal transport intermodal transhipments combined transport equipment a new rail service combined transport terminals intermodal transhipments an experimental rail (rolling) motorway service start-up aid for equipment & infrastructure environmental premiums equipment technology feasibility studies training Pag. 28

29 Belgium The public private partnership programme for the construction of new quay walls Developing regular container services in Wallonia New intermodal terminals Regional and federal subsidy schemes Incorporated in: Flanders in Action Extented gateways Pag. 29

30 Subsidy schemes Pag. 30

31 A changing transport context Combat Climate Change a Priority for the EU Greening of transport Internalisation of external costs Short term marginal cost categories Different vehicle types Effects of taxation of road transport Photo: UNIFE Pag. 31

32 Emissions Pag. 32

33 Emissions Source: Energiebalans Vlaanderen VITO, VITO, VMM Pag. 33

34 External costs EC, Pag. 34

35 Belgium Pag. 35

36 LAMBIT: Location analysis model for Belgian intermodal terminal MOSI Transport en Logistiek

37 Methodology GIS network Market prices update Container volumes update Pag. 37

38 Scenario based analyses for Belgium Reference scenario Subsidy scenarios Rail subsidy Barge subsidy Internalisation of external costs scenario Fuel price scenarios Future terminal scenarios Pag. 38

39 Reference scenario Pag. 39

40 Subsidy schemes Pag. 40

41 Rail subsidy scenario The reference scenario Without a rail subsidy Pag. 41

42 Barge subsidy scenario The reference scenario With a barge subsidy Pag. 42

43 Internalisation of external costs scenario 1/2 The reference scenario Internalisation of external costs Pag. 43

44 Internalisation of external costs scenario 2/2 Internalisation of external costs for barge Internalisation of external costs for rail Pag. 44

45 Fuel price scenarios Pag. 45

46 Future terminal scenario The reference scenario New terminals Pag. 46

47 Impact of new terminals Aalst 1 municipality 92,567 ton Ghlin 12 municipalities 110,642 ton La Louvière 4 municipalities 61,628 ton Genk 47 municipalities 520,666 ton Liège 38 municipalities 201,018 ton rail barge Pag. 47

48 Conclusions very dense terminal network common market area competition rail vs barge (rail subsidy) competition barge (barge subsidy) External costs internalized = IT fuel prices = IT a need for coordination between the regional and federal policies Pag. 48

49 Thank you for your listening Questions and Remarks Ethem Pekin Prof. Dr. Cathy Macharis MOSI Transport en Logistiek