Q Cairo Real Estate Market Overview

Transcription

1 Cairo Real Estate Market Overview

2 Cairo Market Summary The third quarter of 2014 saw further political stability as the regime proceeded with implementing its roadmap. Following the reduction of energy subsidies, the government is currently reforming the tax system, a measure that should boost the economy and halve the budget deficit within seven years, according to the Finance Minister. The positive sentiment that has placed the economy on the road to recovery is reflected in the announcement of the ambitious Suez Canal Regional Development Project. The plan to expand Egypt s economic lifeline is expected to draw in domestic and international investment and finance industrial and export services as well as reinforcing the industrial and logistics backbone of Egypt s economy. Blueprints for other major national projects are also being prepared, including the Golden Triangle which aims at exploiting the natural resources and mineral wealth in Upper Egypt. Against this improving economic backdrop, the third quarter saw increased confidence in the real estate market. Demand remains relatively active across all segments and developers are moving forward with both new and re-launched projects. Cairo Prime Rental Clock Q Rental Growth Slowing Rents Falling Rental Growth Accelerating Rents Bottoming Out Residential Hotel* Retail Office Rental Growth Slowing Rents Falling Rental Growth Accelerating Rents Bottoming Out Residential Hotel* Retail Office * Hotel clock reflects the movement of RevPAR Note: The property clock is a graphical tool developed by JLL to illustrate where a market sits within its individual rental cycle. These positions are not necessarily representative of investment or development market prospects. It is important to recognise that markets move at different speeds depending on their maturity, size and economic conditions. Markets will not always move in a clockwise direction, they might move backwards or remain at the same point in their cycle for extended periods. Source: JLL

3 Cairo Office Market Overview Market Summary The office sector remained relatively unchanged over the third quarter with the addition of just one new project. The release of additional space at City Stars Properties added 4,000 sq m to the total office stock, which now stands at around 890,000 sq m. Rental rates have remained flat over the past year. While vacancy rates remain high (27%) there is increased interest from international occupiers for additional office space in New Cairo. Vacancy rates have increased marginally over the quarter due to the introduction of an additional 4,000 sq m of office space by City Stars and 50% of Future Gate New Cairo that is currently being offered for rent on a sub-lease basis. Hot Topic Developers continue to offer new products and solutions to attract occupiers that were previously discouraged by the poor quality options available. Smart Village has acquired 150,000 sq m in Future City in New Cairo for a new development. Elsewhere, innovative solutions like the reuse of the AUC Greek Campus in Downtown have been introduced, while Regus have introduced flexible short-term leases to attract occupiers to their serviced office projects. Our forecast of future office supply has been reduced, with Cairo Festival City postponing the delivery of Phase II (50,000 sq m) from 2016 to Q Office Supply Current Supply ( ) Future Supply ( ) 715K 773K 819K 889K 15K 52K 0K Q Office Performance 26% Q Vacancy Rate 27% Cairo Rents (USD Per sq m / Per Annum) Q Central Cairo New Cairo, Sector New Cairo, Sector West Cairo

4 Cairo Residential Market Overview Market Summary The residential market has been the strongest performing sector in Cairo in Q3, with the sales recovering ahead of rents in most locations as confidence returns. With the exception of villa rents in 6 th of October, sales and rents increased across the basket monitored by JLL. While prices and rents in New Cairo remain above those in 6 th October, the gap has narrowed somewhat in recent months, with the strongest price growth being recorded in 6 th October City. As confidence is restored to the market, the residential sector is expected to recover its dynamism and show continued growth in prices and rentals over the remainder of 2014 and into Hot Topic Despite the ongoing delays in the delivery of residential projects, some developers remain active in the market. SODIC for example, have completed the construction of phases 3-5 of Westown in 6 th of October a year ahead of its scheduled completion date. With the sales market performing well in the 6 th of October area, Kuwadico has launched a new phase of fully finished units in its Grand Heights project. These are naturally selling at a higher price compared to those being offered on a semi finished basis. Residential Supply Current Supply ( ) Future Supply ( ) 67K 74K 85K 88K 28K 25K 9K Q Residential Performance Residential Property Rent and Sale Growth Apartment Residential New Cairo 2% 2% 6th October 11% 0% Villa Residential New Cairo 5% 2% 6th October 9% -1% Q-o-Q Q-o-Q 21% -16% 20% -4% 28% 5% 5% -6% Y-o-Y Y-o-Y

5 Cairo Retail Market Overview Market Summary Cairo s retail market registered a slight improvement in performance over the third quarter. Average rents increased 2% Y-o-Y as owners of prime malls increased their asking prices, encouraged by interest from international brands. This comes as the Cairo retail landscape continues to transform from small, local shops to larger malls with international brand representation. The retail market is expected to witness the opening of around 970,000 sq m of additional space over the next two years, the majority of which will be within Super Regional & Regional malls. Hot Topic The retail market remained active over the third quarter with the opening of Galleria 40 in West Cairo. Most units have been leased to international brands with the F&B segment dominating. A further 364,000 sq m of retail space is expected to be completed over the remainder of 2014, including the delivery of two Super Regional malls, Citadel Plaza in Mokattam & Madinaty Mega Mall in New Cairo. With these new deliveries, the retail market in Cairo is poised for future growth and development. Retail Supply Current Supply ( ) Future Supply ( ) 762K 836K 1.1M 1.2M 364K 297K 313K Q Retail Performance 26% Q Vacancy Rate 23% Average Retail Rents (Per sq m) Q USD USD 1,320 USD USD 1,416

6 Cairo Hotel Market Overview Market Summary Recent political stability coupled with government efforts to revive Egypt s tourism sector have reflected positively on the performance of the hotel market in the third quarter. While YT August occupancy levels remain lower than they were in 2013 (42% vs. 56% respectively), ADR s have improved significantly registering a 106% increase Y-o-Y. These rates are expected to improve further as Cairo s hotel market remains underdeveloped, with limited supply in the pipeline. The hotel sector is expected to perform well over the remainder of 2014 as the government launch further new initiatives to attract tourists. Hot Topic Egypt s tourism industry continues to see overall improvement with a revival in visitor numbers in certain markets. According to the Egyptian Tourism Authority, the number of UAE tourists grew by 35% during the first 5 months of the year. Eastern Europe was the largest source market, with 1.9 million visitors to Egypt (45% of the total) over the first half of 2014 (CAPMAS). As stability and security continues to improve across the country, the tourism and hospitality sectors are expected to regain their momentum and record improvement in performance over the remainder of Hotel Supply Current Supply ( ) Future Supply ( ) 27,500 keys 27,500 27,700 27, Q Q Hotel Performance 56% YT August 2013 Occupancy Rate 42% YT August 2014 USD 50 YT August 2013 Average Daily Rate USD 103 YT August 2014 Source : STR Global Source : STR Global

7 Definitions and Methodology Interpretation of market positions: 6 o clock indicates a turning point towards rental growth. At this position, we believe the market has reached its lowest point and the next movement in rents is likely to be upwards. 9 o clock indicates the market has reached the rental growth peak, while rents may continue to increase over coming quarters the market is heading towards a period of rental stabilisation. 12 o clock indicates a turning point towards a market consolidation / slowdown. At this position, the market has no further rental growth potential left in the current cycle, with the next move likely to be downwards. 3 o clock indicates the market has reached its point of fastest decline. While rents may continue to decline for some time, the rate of decrease is expected to slow as the market moves towards a period of rental stabilisation. The supply data is based on our quarterly survey of 100 projects located in New Cairo and 6th of October, starting from Completed building refers to a building that is handed over for immediate occupation. Residential performance data is based on two separate baskets of projects, one for rentals and the other for sales of villas and apartments. The rental performance is based on 3 bedroom villas and 2 bedroom apartments The sales data relates to fully finished units, rather than those handed over in a shell and core condition. The two baskets cover projects in both New Cairo and 6th of October The supply data is based on our quarterly survey of the Grade A office space located in Downtown, New Cairo and West Cairo. The historic supply data has been revised since the Q2 report to reflect updated information. Completed building refers to a building that is handed over for immediate occupation. Prime Office Rent represents the top open-market rent (exclusive of service charge, tenant incentives & local taxes) that could be expected for a notional office unit of the highest quality and specification in the best location in a market, at the survey date. Vacancy rate is based on estimates from the JLL Agency team. Vacancy rates have been revised for previous quarters. Classification of Retail Centres is based upon the ULI definition and based on their GLA: Super Regional Malls have a GLA of above 90,000 sq m Regional Malls have a GLA of 30,000-90,000 sq m Community Malls have a GLA of 10,000-30,000 sq m Neighborhood Malls have a GLA of 3,000-10,000 sq m Convenience Malls have a GLA of less than 3,000 sq m Prime Rent represents the quoted average rent for the top 5 shopping malls in greater Cairo. Vacancy rate is based on estimates from the JLL Retail team, and represents the average rate across standard in line unit shops at regional malls Hotel room supply is based on existing supply figures provided by the Egyptian Hotel Association as well as future hotel development data tracked by JLL Hotels. Room supply includes all graded hotel supply and excludes serviced apartments. STR performance data is based on a sample of internationally branded midscale and upscale hotel properties.

8 Cairo Star Capital 2 8th Floor, Office 86 2 Aly Rashed Street Heliopolis Cairo, Egypt Tel: Fax: For questions and inquires about the Cairo real estate market, please contact: Ayman Sami Country Head Egypt Office ayman.sami@eu.jll.com Dana Williamson Head of Agency MENA dana.williamson@eu.jll.com Andrew Williamson Head of Retail MENA andrew.williamson@eu.jll.com Chiheb Ben-Mahmoud Head of Hotels & Hospitality MEA chiheb.ben-mahmoud@eu.jll.com Craig Plumb Head of Research MENA craig.plumb@eu.jll.com Eman Hussein Research Manager MENA youtube.com/joneslanglasalle linkedin.com/companies/jll joneslanglasalleblog.com/emearesearch jll-mena.com This publication is the sole property of Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. and must not be copied, reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, either in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of JLL IP, Inc. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources generally regarded to be reliable. However, no representation is made, or warranty given, in respect of the accuracy of this information. We would like to be informed of any inaccuracies so that we may correct them. JLL does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication.