Outlook for European Real Estate in Mark Charlton, Head of Research & Forecasting

Transcription

1 Outlook for European Real Estate in 2013 Mark Charlton, Head of Research & Forecasting Tuesday 20 th November 2012

2 Europe - uncertainty continues to buffet sentiment Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct 12 IMF and UNCTAD report that high levels of economic uncertainty are crippling investment and economic recovery Eurostat Survey: Economic Sentiment UK Germany Eurozone Boosts to confidence short-lived US companies hold over $1.7 trillion in cash Transnational companies hold $5 trillion in cash FDI and business expansion are on hold Source: Eurostat 2

3 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Eurozone & German GDP weakening Eurozone GDP % Growth German GDP % Growth 2% 4% 4% 6% 1% 2% 3% 2% 4% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% -1% -2% -1% -2% -2% Quarter-on-quarter (LHS) Year-on-year (RHS) -4% -2% -3% Quarter-on-quarter (LHS) Year-on-year (RHS) -4% -3% -6% -4% -6% Source: ONS Source: ONS 3

4 Europe key economies; size and growth GDP ( millions) Germany remains the powerhouse, but it cannot avoid the slowdown France is weak and may tip into recession Poland relatively strong, but not immune 4

5 Europe key economies; size and growth Spain sees two years of negative growth Sweden and Poland show respectable growth, but at reduced rates UK, France and Germany sluggish For property expansionary demand to remain subdued 5

6 07Q4 08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 EMEA investment volumes down Investment Volumes (12-month running total) billions Americas EMEA suffering from weak Asia Pac EMEA confidence Asia Pac volumes have almost trebled since the 2009 trough EMEA and Americas volumes have recovered, but remain at about 45% of their 2007 levels Marked improvement in EMEA volumes unlikely in Source: RCA 6

7 Sentiment amongst EMEA investors slowly improving Last months Next 6 months Next 12 months Next 5 years Note: Colliers International Property Investor Sentiment Index is based on a result of where above 100 means that more investors are positive about investment conditions. Below 100 means more investors are negative about investment conditions 7

8 Over one third of EMEA investors believe that property investment conditions will improve over the next 6 months? 60% 50% 49% 40% 37% 30% 20% 14% 10% 0% Decline Improve Stay the Same Source: Colliers International 8

9 56% - good time to invest in commercial property 59% - planning to expand over next 6 months Bad time to invest 6% 70% 60% Which of the following best describes how your property portfolio will change over the next 6 months? 59% 50% Neither a good or bad time 38% Good time to invest 56% 40% 30% 20% 28% 12% 10% 0% Expand / increase level of investment Maintain / consolidate current investments Reduce / sell current investments Source: Colliers International 9

10 London and Paris dominate activity as in 2011 Top 7 German City/Regions - 13,116 Source: RCA 10

11 2009 H1 Occupier markets generally flat Offices 2009 H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H1 Vacancy Rates Rising Vacancy Rates Falling Vacancy Rates Steady 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Dusseldorf London West End Copenhagen Warsaw Budapest 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Berlin Frankfurt Hamburg Munich Stuttgart London City Stockholm Helsinki 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Paris Oslo 0% 0% Prague 0% Moscow Colliers International Colliers International Colliers International 11

12 2009 H H H H H H H1 Office rental growth generally flat Rental Movements to H London West End Paris London City Moscow Stockholm Oslo Frankfurt Munich Dusseldorf Warsaw Hamburg Helsinki Stuttgart Prague Copenhagen Colliers International Budapest 12

13 Logistics - a couple of areas to think about E-commerce Infrastructure 13

14 Will anything change in 2013? Eurozone uncertainty will continue to impact on business confidence Recession is a reality in a number of European countries at start of 2013 Unlikely to see even modest growth until H Limited bank lending will continue to act as a drag on the market and will only be available to those meeting stringent conditions and at a price Further growth of new lenders and mezzanine funds Investors will continue to focus on prime product; transparent, deep and liquid markets Opportunities for those prepared to take on more risk, but only if finance is in place 14

15 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 UK recovery at last? One step forward UK GDP % Growth Chancellor under less pressure to follow through with July s promises 3% 2% 6% 4% PMI data suggests that Q4 12 GDP could decline marginally 1% 0% 2% 0% Autumn financial statement 6 th December should bring greater certainty with respect to economic policy Bank of England to remain accommodative -1% -2% -3% -4% Quarter-on-quarter (LHS) Year-on-year (RHS) -2% -4% -6% -8% Source: ONS 15

16 UK investment market challenging UK will struggle to reach 2011 totals, but Central London seeing safe haven flows London City and West End YTD 38% of value vs 27% in currently c bn; forecast 29 bn at year end Source: Property Data, Colliers International Modest improvement in 2013 to 35 bn 16

17 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 UK property performance flat... 4 UK IPD Rental Growth %m/m 3 2 % m/m AP Capital Growth %m/m AP Rental Growth %m/m -7 Source: IPD 2012

18 Polarisation to continue in 2013 Prime vs non-prime Investors to remain risk averse Non-prime pricing beginning to attract some interest, but obtaining finance remains challenging London vs Rest of UK Occupier markets across sectors generally flat outside of London 2013 rental growth limited outside London but steady net absorption and limited new development in regional office markets will generate some rental pressure for Grade A space Lack of spec and D&B logistics is also limiting options for occupiers 18

19 London vs Rest of UK retail rents 19

20 London vs rest of UK retail rents 20

21 City Office take-up by business sector City 2011 Property 6% Other 5% Retail / Leisure 4% TMT* 26% Property 7% City-2012 to date Education 3% Other 4% Public Sector 2% TMT* 36% Legal 7% Legal 8% Insurance 12% Business Services 20% Banking & Financial Services 20% Insurance 11% Business Services 13% Banking & Financial Services 16% Source: Colliers International *Technology, Media & Telecommunications

22 City Core vs Mid Town take-up by business sector City Core 2012 to date Midtown and Fringe-2012 to date Property 8% Retail / Leisure Other 1% 2% Banking & Financial Services 28% Public Sector 4% Other 3% Banking & Financial Services 2% Retail / Leisure 2% Legal 9% Education 5% Property 6% TMT* 16% Legal 7% TMT* 63% Business Services 18% Insurance 18% Business Services 9% Source: Colliers International *Technology, Media & Telecommunications

23 TMT driving absorption in City fringe City Core absorption remains positive, but becoming marginal TMT has been driving stronger absorption in City Fringe / Mid-Town Source: Colliers International 23

24 sq ft Net Stock Absorption West End H H H H H H H Source: Colliers International

25 sq ft Net Stock Absorption Core vs Non-Core 400, , , ,000 0 Mayfair Victoria -100, , , ,000 H H H H H H Source: Colliers International

26 per sq ft Headline rents & forecast City West End Midtown Day Week Dotcom Collapse Recovery ERM Crisis s recession 90s recession Credit Crunch 0.00 Source: Colliers International

27 UK rental forecasts 27

28 UK total return forecasts 28

29 Conclusion A deteriorating situation in most European economies will not help the real estate markets Eurozone uncertainty will continue to impact business confidence in Europe and the UK Assuming no further external shocks, the UK is approaching the end of a long tunnel, but economic recovery will be slow Expansionary demand will remain subdued EMEA investors are becoming more positive and most wish to invest and expand portfolios 77% with debt which will be a challenge Growth in new lenders and mezzanine funds Investors will remain relatively risk averse we see more of the same Opportunities do exist as secondary pricing continues to adjust but finance will need to be in place 29

30 Our Global Strength Top 3 global real estate services brand 522 offices in 62 countries 12,000+ employees $1.8 billion in revenue Over 90% owned revenues $68bn transaction value Over 2.1 bn square feet under management * * Includes FirstService Residential Management