European office market recovery continues but at varying speeds

Transcription

1 The Jones Lang LaSalle Office Property Clock Q European office market recovery continues but at varying speeds European Prime Office Rental Index continues upward trend Aggregate European leasing volumes up 5% on Q1 Office vacancy rates remain static Amsterdam, Helsinki Geneva Lyon, Paris CBD Cologne, Oslo, Stockholm, Stuttgart Berlin, Copenhagen, Hamburg, Moscow Munich Rental Growth Slowing Rents Falling Milan, Zurich Düsseldorf Frankfurt London West End London City, Luxembourg, St. Petersburg Rental Growth Accelerating Rents Bottoming Out Warsaw Istanbul Dublin Edinburgh, Manchester Lisbon Athens, Rome Barcelona, Budapest, Madrid Bucharest, Brussels, Kiev, Prague IP, July 2013 The clock diagram illustrates where Jones Lang LaSalle estimates each prime office market is within its individual rental cycle as at end of June Markets can move around the clock at different speeds and directions. The diagram is a convenient method of comparing the relative position of markets in their rental cycle. Their position is not necessarily representative of investment or development market prospects. Their position refers to prime face rental values. Markets with a step pattern of rental growth do not tend to follow conventional cycles and are likely to move between the hours of 9 and 12 o clock only, with 9 o clock representing a jump in rental levels following a period of stability.

2 European Office Occupational Markets The recovery of the European office sector continues, but at variable pace with occupier activity remaining impacted by on-going uncertainty over the short term outlook as well as weak labour markets. Overall conditions vary hugely market by market and range from those that are starting to recover such as Dublin, those that are slowing after a period of healthy demand such as the German centres, those that are still waiting for a recovery such as Prague and those that are experiencing renewed downward pressure Milan or Warsaw. Office rents Prime European office rents continue to recover in aggregate. The European Office Index increased by 0.2% over the quarter but remains in negative territory (-0.7%) compared with a year ago, though the underlying trend keeps improving. The aggregate numbers disguise, however, the diverse picture across the region. Over the quarter, prime office rents in Dublin continued to recover from their historic lows, increasing by +9.4%. Prime rents also increased in Edinburgh (+7.4%), Dusseldorf (+ 5.8%) and Luxembourg (+5.0%). These positive movements offset declines in Lyon (-5.3%), where, as for Paris, the challenging economic conditions impacted on the short-term outlook, and in Budapest (- 2.5%), which experienced low levels of demand. Declines were also recorded in Warsaw (-2.0%), as rents remained under pressure from rising levels of supply, and in Barcelona (-1.4%). Rents in all other Index markets remained unchanged. Jones Lang LaSalle s European Office clock clearly mirrors the divergence across the region with markets contained in each of the four quadrants. For the remainder of this year, rental growth is forecast to be only moderate. While growth forecasts for London remain strong, the currently challenging conditions in France are likely to take a toll on the short term outlook. Rental growth in Germany and the Nordics is also expected to lose some momentum after a couple of healthy quarters. While the bottom of the cycle appears close, there remain downside risks for selected Southern European markets. Office demand Q2 office take-up improved slightly over the quarter (+5%), but is down on Q (-3%) and below the 5Y average (-5%). Volumes over the first six months of 2013 were also marginally down on the same period a year ago (-1%). Over the quarter, occupier activity improved though only moderately in both Western and Central and Eastern Europe (by +5% and +7% respectively). Volumes in Western Europe were heavily impacted by weakness in Paris, where Q2 volumes were 4% below an already subdued first quarter. Elsewhere, activity in Germany remained healthy with all index markets apart from Hamburg showing increases over the quarter. The London office market remained buoyant, driven by high take-up in the City, while healthy activity was also recorded in the Stockholm office market. In the Netherlands, Amsterdam saw a weak quarter, while volumes revived in the other Dutch markets, albeit from very low levels earlier this year. In the Spanish centres Q2 activity was also subdued, though Madrid performed well over H1 on account of a strong Q1. In CEE, healthy demand in Moscow and Warsaw supported Q2 results, while activity in Prague and Budapest decreased over the quarter. Overall, occupiers remain cost-sensitive and will examine their lease options very carefully. There is some evidence of occupiers taking the opportunity to upgrade if clear gains in floor plate efficiency and workplace productivity and/or location can be realised. However, activity depends on occupier s willingness and ability to commit and invest facing current uncertainty. Pre-lets are still being recorded, but the potential may also be declining as many requirements are now filled. Going forward, much will depend on the sustained recovery in the wider economy reviving expansionary demand. The headwinds on the demand side are mirrored in net absorption. While annual net absorption in Q remained positive, it decreased by 15% over the quarter and stands 18% below the level of Q Absorption decreased particularly sharply in Western Europe (-25%), as the larger markets saw volumes decrease including Paris, London, Munich, Hamburg, Frankfurt and Brussels. By contrast, the CEE region recorded a slight rise in Q2 (+5%), with absorption increasing in Moscow, Warsaw and Budapest. Office supply Office vacancy for the region remained static in aggregate at 9.7%, with a 10bps decrease in Western Europe (to 9.2%) cancelling out a 10bps increase in CEE (14.0%). Of the 24 index markets in the region, half saw vacancy rates increase with the other half decreasing. Changes over the quarter of 110 bps were recorded in Rotterdam (increase) and Moscow (decrease), but these were the exception and movements elsewhere were within a +/- 40 bps band. Going forward, vacancy is forecast to remain static. New space is likely to be quickly absorbed or is already committed to as modern office space in prime locations remains scarce, but with expansionary demand forecast to remain weak and with corporate occupiers seeking efficiency gains, the release of second-hand space will keep vacancy rates close to current levels. Office completions decreased further over the quarter (-11%) to reach a 10-year low. With just 720,000 sq m delivered in Q2 2013, volumes were 50% below the Q2-5Y average. Completions were particularly subdued in CEE with, for instance, only around 80,000 sq m delivered to the Moscow market. With 1.5 million sq m completed in H1 across Europe, this suggests downside risk to our forecasts of full year volumes in excess of 4 million sq m.

3 Prime European Office Rental Index % Change Q Y o Y Weighted Nominal Rental Trend, 1980 = 100 Prime Office Rents Q (EUR / sqm pa) Prime Office Rents and Rental Change Q London West End Moscow Geneva Paris CBD Zurich London City Luxembourg Oslo Stockholm Milan St. Petersburg Istanbul Frankfurt/M Rome Manchester Dublin Munich Edinburgh Amsterdam Dusseldorf Kiev Helsinki Madrid Warsaw Hamburg Brussels Lyon Cologne Berlin Prague Copenhagen Budapest Bucharest Lisbon Stuttgart Barcelona Athens Q o Q -0.7% 0.2% ,000 1,200 EUR / sqm pa % Q-o-Q % Y-o-Y Amsterdam Athens Barcelona Berlin Brussels Bucharest Budapest Cologne Copenhagen Dublin Dusseldorf Edinburgh Frankfurt/M Geneva Hamburg Helsinki Istanbul Kiev Lisbon London City London West End 1, Luxembourg Lyon Madrid Manchester Milan Moscow Munich Oslo Paris CBD Prague Rome St. Petersburg Stockholm Stuttgart Warsaw Zurich Note: Q-o-Q and Y-o-Y rental change is based on the local currency.

4 Definitions Prime Rent Represents the top open-market rent that could be expected for a notional office unit of the highest quality and specification in the best location in a market, as at the survey date. The rent quoted normally reflects prime units of over 500 m² of lettablefloorspace, which excludes rents that represent a premium level paid for a small quantity of space. The Prime Rent reflects an occupational lease that is standard for the local market. It is a face rent that does not reflect the financial impact of tenant incentives, and excludes service charges and local taxes. The Prime Rent represents Jones Lang LaSalle s market view and is based on an analysis/review of actual transactions for prime office space, excluding any unrepresentative deals. Where an insufficient number of deals have been made for prime office space, an assessment of rental value is provided by reference to transactions generally in that market adjusted accordingly to equate to prime. Take up Take-up represents floorspace acquired within a market for occupation during the survey period (normally three-monthly). A unit is registered as taken-up when a legally-binding agreement to acquire the unit has been completed. Take-up includes floorspace leased and sold for occupation, and the pre-lettings of floorspace in course of development or prior to the start of construction. Annual Net-Absorption Represents the change in the occupied stock within a market during one year. Net Absorption is calculated on the basis of top-down estimates of occupied stock derived by subtracting vacant office stock from the total office stock of that market. Mothballed stock, i.e. floorspace held vacant and not being offered for letting, usually pending redevelopment or refurbishment, is excluded Vacancy Rate The Vacancy Rate represents immediately vacant office floorspace, inclusive sub-lettings, in all completed buildings within a market as at the survey date (normally at the end of each quarter period), expressed as a percentage of the total stock. Completions Completions represent floorspace completed during the survey period (normally annually and projected forward by three years) within a market. Completions include both new development and refurbished accommodation that has been substantially modernised. An office is regarded as complete when the developer will undertake no further work until a tenant/occupier is secured. In the majority of instances this means that all main services are completed and suspended ceilings and light fittings are installed. Some developments are considered to be completed when they reach shell-and-core condition where the accommodation is to be marketed in that state. Future completions Represents the total floorspace of new and refurbished developments, either pre-planned, planned or under construction, that are expected to complete in a given year or the remainder of a current year (e.g. at Q for Q2+Q3+Q4 2012). The total volume contains developments of high completion probability which are usually already under construction, have obtained building permits/authorisation, or are considered for other reasons highly likely to be completed.

5 Oliver Kummerfeldt Associate Director EMEA Research London Dr Lee Elliott Director Head of EMEA Research London The Jones Lang LaSalle Office Property Clocks Q Pulse reports from Jones Lang LaSalle are frequent updates on real estate market dynamics. COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. We would like to be told of any such errors in order to correct them. Printing information: paper, inks, printing process, recycle directive.