Nivesh Commodity 30 th December, 2016 Daily Change & Technical levels Base Metal Inventory Scrip Inventory Change Copper 331100 2750 Alumni 2183675 6875 Lead 195750 50 Zinc 427850 475 Nickel 371280 126 Gold Lease Rates 1 m 0.0884% +0.0250 2 m 0.1100% +0.0175 3 m 0.1381% +0.0150 6 m 0.2097% +0.0025 1 y 0.4007% +0.0050 Scrip Close % Change R1 R2 PIVOT S2 S1 GOLD 27562 0.96 27674 27787 27487 27187 27374 SILVER 39621 0.51 39880 40140 39590 39040 39330 CRUDE 3665 1.11 3690 3715 3665 3615 3640 NG 256.2 2.14 261.8 267.4 258.4 249.4 252.8 COPPER 374.4 1.02 378.3 382.1 376.1 370.1 372.3 NICKEL 685.7 0.19 694.5 703.2 686.2 669.2 677.5 LEAD 132.7 3.10 136.5 140.2 134.2 128.2 130.5 ZINC 170.5 3.13 175.0 179.5 172.5 165.5 168.0 ALUMINIUM 115.6 1.37 116.9 118.2 116.2 114.2 114.9 Comex Division Bullions (Spot) Last close % change Gold $1157.80 1.47 Silver $16.13 0.95 * According to 29 DEC, 2016. Ankit Kapoor Sr. Research Analyst Mobile: +91 7389934302 Tel: +91 0731 4262702 ankit.kapoor@indianivesh.in 1
BULLION Gold rises to 2 week high as dollar, stocks ease The price of gold increased considerably, even though the dollar gained against the euro, the yen, and the pound. The euro hit its one week low against the dollar even though contracts to buy U.S. homes in November to the lowest in nearly a year, according to National Association of Realtors data. President elect Trump is expected to make an announcement about the economy this afternoon, after the close of markets. The Chinese, a major consumer of gold, and a significant buyer of dollars, in the past, made an announcement in the media in Beijing earlier today indicating that there was going to be trade friction with the U.S., given the recent appointment of Prof. Navarro of University of California, Irvine, as industrial policy advisor. Navarro has been critical of Chinese trade practices in print and in a major motion picture which he produced. Prices of the yellow metal have fallen sharply since Donald Trump was elected president as a soaring U.S. dollar; rising Treasury yields and a record breaking rally on Wall Street have dampened its appeal. Market analysts warned that the outlook for gold remains cloudy in the near term, given expectations for higher U.S. interest rates in the months ahead. The Fed hiked interest rates for the first time in a year earlier this month and projected three more increases in 2017. The precious metal is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar in which it is priced. Both a strong dollar and higher interest rates are typically bearish for gold, which is denominated in dollars and struggles to compete with yield bearing assets when borrowing costs rise. Gold and silver settled on MCX division at 27562 and 39621 respectively. Today, Gold has support at 27300 and resistance at 27700 while Silver has support at 39000 and resistance at 39900. Traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation 2
ENERGY Oil prices edge up despite unexpected U.S. crude inventory build Oil prices rose in early Asian trade on Friday shrugging off a second consecutive week of U.S. crude oil inventory builds, with a U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report late on Thursday indicating an unexpected rise in crude stocks. Crude inventories were up 614,000 barrels in the week to Dec. 23, the EIA data showed, compared with analysts' expectations for a decrease of 2.1 million barrel. Despite the unexpected rise in crude stocks, the EIA data published on Thursday showed a significantly smaller rise in crude stocks compared with Wednesday's American Petroleum Institute (API) data that indicated a 4.2 million barrel build in U.S. crude oil stocks in the same period. "Today's Department of Energy report was positive for light products due to draws in gasoline and distillate inventories compared to consensus' build expectations," British bank Barclays (LON:BARC) said in a note. Gasoline stocks fell 1.6 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.3 million barrel rise. The market is likely to have focused on the surprise draw in product stocks and taken on a slightly more bullish view toward the WTI contract, traders said. Oil prices will gradually rise toward $60 per barrel by the end of 2017, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, with further upside capped by a strong dollar, a likely recovery in U.S. oil output and possible non compliance by OPEC with agreed cuts. Crude oil settled on MCX division at 3665 Crude oil has support at 3640 3600 and resistance at 3720. Traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation 3
BASE METAL Copper falls on demand hope, looks choppy Copper slips on hope for lower demand as the dollar strengthen against the other currencies. Prices of industrial metals were up day before yesterday after in the US, the world's biggest metal importer, consumer confidence and manufacturing index reported unexpected growth for December month. Consumer Confidence for December came in at 113.7, its highest since August 2001 and up from an upwardly revised 109.4 read in November. The Richmond Fed current conditions manufacturing index rose to 8 points this month from 4 points in November. The Dallas Fed said that its production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose to 13.8 points in December from 8.8 in November. In addition to that, industrial metals were also up after the data published by National Bureau of Statistics showed that profits earned by large industrial firms rose 14.5% in November from a year earlier on the back of a strong rebound in raw material prices and a low base last year. In October the profits of the industries reported growth on 9.8%, the statistics bureau said. China is the world's largest consumer of copper accounting for about 40% of total global demand and major consumer of other industrial metals. Industrial metals were also supported by weak dollar index which boost investors appetite for greenback denominated commodities. Copper settled in MCX division at 374.40 Support at 370 and resistance at 379 383. Traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation 4
AGRI COMMODITY Soybean ends lower on oversupply woes, weak demand Soybean ended lower Thursday on expectation of higher supply in global market and on weak demand for meal in domestic market. Argentine farmers are expected to plant 20.3 million hectares with soy in the 2016 17 seasons, the agriculture ministry said in its monthly crop report. In addition to that, according to Buenos Aires Exchange, around 66.5% of the crops have been planted up from 57.6% on weekly basis. It maintained soybean acreage at 19.6 million tons for 2016 17. In addition to that, according to Safras, Brazil's soybean planting is 97% completed compared to 95.5% a year ago. Prices of the bean were also down on weak demand from poultry in domestic market. In December month the demand of soymeal from poultry feed manufacturers generally increases by 20%, but due to demonetisation demand has declined by around thirty percent. Retail sales of broiler chicken are not improving as per market expectation so the poultry farmers are incurring losses of around 10 15%. Soyabean December contract settled on NCDEX division at 3024 Support at 2980 and resistance at 3050. Traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation News Source: Investing.com and News Wire 5
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