Monthly Economic Indicators And Charts

Transcription

1 Monthly Economic Indicators And Charts September 15 Richard F. Moody- Chief Economist Steve Pfitzer Strategic and Corporate Planning Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized sources believed to be reliable. This information has not been verified by us, and we do not make any representations about accuracy, completeness or reliability. Any opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.

2 Monthly Highlights / Commentary U.S. Economy Holding Up Amidst A Weak Global Backdrop The BEA s second estimate of Q GDP, which incorporates revised and more complete source data than is available for the first estimate, puts real GDP growth at.7 percent, annualized, a considerable upgrade from the initial estimate of. percent growth. Despite the upward revision to top-line real GDP growth, the details in the Q data are not favorable for Q growth. 15 s first and second quarters saw the largest back-to-back build in business inventories on record in the life of the GDP data, so inventories should be a significant drag on Q real GDP growth. Government spending will also be a drag while trade will at best be neutral. Energy and non-auto manufacturing remain notable soft spots in the U.S. economy. Thus far, however, there is little evidence weak global growth and heightened volatility in financial markets have had an adverse impact on the U.S. economy beyond these two segments. We monitor weekly data on commercial bank loan balances, initial jobless claims, and purchase mortgage applications, as well as daily data on federal government tax receipts. These series would give early warnings of spreading weakness in the domestic economy. The August employment report did not give the FOMC a reason to raise the Fed funds rate when they meet later this month, but neither did it give them a reason not to do so. A funds rate hike is on the table for this month s meeting but, even should this happen, subsequent rate hikes will come at only a very gradual pace.

3 ECONOMIC/FINANCIAL DATA HIGHLIGHTS September 15 Indicator: Last Observation: Reported As: Value: % Change Year Ago, or Year Ago Value: Real GDP Q 15 (revised) Annualized % change.9%.% Payroll Employment August 15 Monthly change, thousands of jobs +17.9% Private Sector Employment August 15 Monthly change, thousands of jobs +1.7% Unemployment Rate August 15 % of labor force 5.1%.1% U Unemployment/Underemployment August 15 % of labor force 1.% 1.% Unemployed 7 Weeks or More August 15 Millions of people.17.9 Aggregate Private Sector Earnings August 15 Monthly % change.7%.9% Real Personal Disposable Income July 15 Monthly % change.5%.7% Real Personal Disposable Income ex Transfers July 15 Monthly % change.%.% Real Personal Consumption Expenditures July 15 Monthly % change.%.1% Personal Savings Rate July 15 % of disposable personal income.9%.% Consumer Price Index Total July 15 Monthly % change.1%.17% Consumer Price Index Core July 15 Monthly % change.1% 1.% Producer Price Index Final Demand July 15 Monthly % change.1% <.1%> Producer Price Index Core Final Demand July 15 Monthly % change.%.5% Single Family Housing Starts July 15 Seasonally adjusted annual rate 7, 57, Multi Family Housing Starts July 15 Seasonally adjusted annual rate,, Single Family Housing Permits July 15 Seasonally adjusted annual rate 79,, Multi Family Housing Permits July 15 Seasonally adjusted annual rate, 1, Industrial Production July 15 Monthly % change.5% 1.% ISM Manufacturing Index August 15 Index value, % 51.1% 5.1% ISM New Manufacturing Orders Index August 15 Index value, % 51.7%.7% ISM Non Manufacturing Index August 15 Index value, % 59.% 5.% ISM New Non Manufacturing Orders Index August 15 Index Value, %.%.% Federal Funds Target Range September, 15 Percent..5%..5% One Month LIBOR Rate September, 15 Percent.%.1% Month U.S. Treasury Bill Yield September, 15 Percent.%.% Year U.S. Treasury Note Yield September, 15 Percent.7%.5% 1 Year U.S. Treasury Note Yield September, 15 Percent.1%.5% Dollar Euro Exchange Rate September, 15 Euros per U.S. dollar.9.77 Dollar Yen Exchange Rate September, 15 Yen per U.S. dollar Federal Reserve Broad U.S. Dollar Index August, 15 Index value, 1997 =

4 Real GDP Annualized Percentage Change Government Contribution To Real GDP Growth Net Exports Inventories - - Bus. Fixed Investment - - PCE Q '1 Q '1 Q1 '15 Q '15 (revised) percent Total Payroll Employment monthly change, seasonally adjusted, thousands (L) 1-month change, not seasonally adjusted, millions (R) Unemployment Rate, % U (unemployment/underemployment) U (unemployment)

5 7,, 5,,,, 1, Long-Term Unemployed Unemployed for 7 Weeks or Longer, Thousands Civilian Labor Force labor force participation rate (%) employment-to-population ratio, % Consumers Assessment of Labor Market Conditions Spread between jobs plentiful and "jobs hard to get", inverse scale (L) Unemployment rate, % (R) Private Sector Hiring Diffusion Index 9 Net % of private sector industries hiring compared to: one month ago six months ago 7 5 -month moving averages

6 - - - Real Disposable Personal Income % change year ago Total Excluding transfers Personal Spending, Saving Personal consumption expenditures, % change year ago Personal saving rate, % of disposable personal income Real Consumer Spending % change year ago durable goods nondurable goods services Total Household Debt % of disposable personal income excluding transfer payments % of disposable personal income

7 Household Debt Outstanding quarterly change, $ billion 1.5 Household Financial Obligations Ratio % of disposable income mortgage consumer credit Present Conditions Consumer Confidence Index 195 = 1 Expectations Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization All Sectors Capacity utilization rate, % (R) -1 Industrial production, % change year ago (L)

8 Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization Manufacturing Sector Capacity utilization rate, % (R) -15 Industrial production, % change year ago (L) total index ISM Manufacturing Index diffusion index, net percentage new orders , Housing Permits ( s of units) annual rates, six-month moving average 55 1, Housing Starts ( s of units) annual rates, six-month moving average 1, 5 1, 5 1, 5 1, 1, 1, Single Family (L) Multi-Family (R) , 1, Single Family (L) Multi-Family (R)

9 7,5 7,,5, 5,5 5,,5, Home Sales ( s of units) annual rates, six-month moving average Existing Homes (L) New Homes (R), ,5 1,5 1,15 1, ,, 55, 5, 5,, 5,, 5,, 15, 1, 5, Foreclosure Starts United States number of loans Total Judicial States Non-Judicial States , 5, 5,, 175, 15, 15, 1, 75, 5, 5, Foreclosure Starts Regions Footprint number of loans Total Judicial States Non-Judicial States Index of House Prices % change year ago FHFA - Purchase Only Core Logic

10 Median Home Prices $ thousands New Homes Existing Homes,5,,5,,5, Existing Home Inventories Units available for sale, ths (L) Months Supply (R) , , New Home Inventories Units available for sale, ths (L) Months Supply (R) CoreLogic Loan Performance Data United States REO Inventory, ths (L) 9+day delinquency rate, % (R)

11 Survey of Senior Lending Officers C&I Loans net % of banks reporting rising loan demand from: large/medium firms small firms Survey of Senior Lending Officers Prime Mortgages net % of banks reporting: stronger loan demand tighter lending standards Bank Charge-Off Rates By Loan Type, % HELOC Mortgage Credit Cards Other Consumer Loans Producer Price Index % change year ago Total Core

12 5 1-1 Consumer Price Index % change year ago Total Core WTI Crude Oil, Retail Gasoline Prices WTI, $ per bbl (L) gasoline, $ per gallon (R) Selected Interest Rates, % weekly data 1-year Treasury AAA Corporate Bond -year Fixed Rate Mortgage Spread Between Yields On 1-year and -year Treasury Notes weekly data

13 TED Spread spread between -month LIBOR and -month T-bill, % Japanese Yen per U.S. Dollar weekly data Chinese Yuan per U.S. Dollar weekly data Euros per U.S. Dollar weekly data