2013 World Grain Outlook
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1 2013 World Grain Outlook Presented by: John Roach February 18, 2013
2 Disclaimer: Futures/options trading involves substantial risk of loss and trading may not be suitable for all investors. You should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Roach Ag. Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag. Marketing is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Roach Ag. Marketing designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Roach Ag. Marketing.
3 World Economy
4 World growth rates Large economies
5
6 United States
7
8
9
10 The U.S. Dollar s Trend
11 Dollar Index Green Line 20-day Moving Average Red Line 200-day Moving Average Source: Futuresource, CME
12 Source: Futuresource, CME Weekly Dollar Index
13 Commodity Speculation
14 CFTC COT Report - Corn Sum of Managed Money & Large Traders - Net Position Contracts Source: CFTC COT Report Source: CFTC COT Report
15 CFTC COT Report - Soybeans Sum of Managed Money & Large Traders - Net Position Contracts Source: CFTC COT Report Source: CFTC COT Report
16 80000 CFTC COT Report - Chicago Wheat Sum of Managed Money & Large Traders - Net Position Contracts Source: CFTC COT Report Source: CFTC COT Report
17 Source: Goldman Sachs Global Research Goldman Volatility Index
18 So where has investor money gone?
19 Source: Bloomberg
20 Source: Bloomberg
21 U.S. Acreage
22
23
24 *Informa 2013 Estimate 99.3*
25 *Informa 2013 Estimate 78.96*
26 *Informa 2013 Estimate 57.1*
27 *Informa 2013 Estimate 10.0*
28 The Weather
29
30
31
32
33
34
35 Soybean Fundamentals
36 Source: USDA WASDE
37 What is happening to the Brazil and Argentine Crops?
38 Source: USDA WASDE
39 Source: USDA WASDE
40 Source: USDA WASDE
41
42
43 Source: USDA Crop Progress
44 Source: FCStone, NOPA
45 Source: USDA WASDE
46 Corn Fundamentals
47 Source: USDA WASDE
48 Source: USDA WASDE
49 Source: USDA WASDE World Coarse Grains Ending Stocks Days of Supply Days of Supply
50 Source: USDA WASDE
51
52
53 Source: USDA WASDE
54 Source: USDA WASDE
55 Source: USDA WASDE
56 Source: USDA WASDE
57 Source: USDA WASDE
58 Source: CME Daily Livestock Report
59 Hogs & Pigs Source: USDA Quarterly Hogs & Pigs, FCStone
60 Source: USDA Cattle on Feed, FCStone
61 Source: QST, CME Cattle problems
62 Daily livestock report
63 Daily livestock report
64 Data for October showed that inflation for food consumed at home was up less than 1% from a year ago. At the same time, inflation for food consumed away from home rose 2.7% vs. October Daily livestock report
65 Source: CME Daily Livestock Report
66 Feed estimates are still too low Protein balance tables adjusted in Feb 8 th report: Combined beef, pork, broiler forecasts up billion lbs Since Dec Forecast Broiler up 845 million lbs Pork up 650 million lbs Beef up 510 million lbs If U.S. economy continues to show improvement, look for larger feed demand. Source: USDA WASDE
67
68 Wheat Fundamentals
69
70 Source: USDA WASDE
71 Source: USDA WASDE
72 Source: USDA WASDE
73
74 Source: INTL/FCStone, USDA
75
76
77 U.S. Wheat Feed Use (million tons) / / / / /13 Source: USDA PSD
78 Source: USDA WASDE
79 Source: USDA WASDE
80 Source: USDA WASDE
81 How Should U.S. Farmers Market Their Crops?
82 Rule # 1 Focus the majority of sales in the 1 st half of the year Best Prices Usually Occur in March to June
83 Rule # 2 Sell only when markets are giving us a Roach Ag Sell Signal
84 2013 November Soybeans
85 2013 December Corn
86 2013 July Chicago Wheat
87 Rule # 3 Figure out the percentage of bushels you are comfortable selling each and every spring and tie that % to the your crop insurance policy coverage level / farm profits
88 Rule # 4 Make sure you have enough on-farm or other owned storage to hold the balance of a crop with room for upside in yields.
89 Rule # 5 Make sure you sell enough in the spring prior to harvest to generate necessary cashflow from harvest through February
90 Rule # 6 Split your old crop bushels and new crop contracts into between 3 and 5 increments and sell one increment on each Sell Signal
91 Cover Unsold and Sold Grain Buy Puts on spring Sell Signals Hold them until an August September or Buy Signal It takes advantage of the normal price decline Cash in and wait until next year May also sell Calls but loss potential makes this very risky Spend about 30 cents on corn and 50 cents on bean Buy calls on sold grain when concerned for weather. Don t re-own grain directly after a sale unless trend is positive.
92 Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. 568 East Yamato Road Suite 200 Boca Raton, FL
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@AnneDunford By Anne Wasko Gateway Livestock, Market Analyst June 2014 J/98 J/99 J/00 J/01 J/02 J/03 J/04 J/05 J/06 J/07 J/08 J/09 J/10 J/11 J/12 J/13 J/14 US $/cwt $160 US Fed Steer Price $140 $120 $100
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