Oil Markets Update- October 2015

Transcription

1 SICO Research November 23, - October Crude prices remain low in October led by oversupply and weak economic indicators October has been a volatile month for crude prices; Brent reached USD 53.05/bbl in the 2nd week of October before falling to USD 49.56/ bbl by the end of the month. Brent averaged at USD 49.3/bbl during October; +1.6% MoM, -44% YoY and -23% YTD. The rise in Brent price to USD 53/bbl during October was supported by speculation that the world s biggest producers of crude may act jointly to support prices, easing oversupply concerns and weaker dollar, however price tumbled when data released in the 2 nd week of October revealed that U.S. crude inventories are increasing. Also China reported the slowest economic growth since 2009, pushing Brent prices to below USD 50/bbl. China s purchasing managers index remained below 50 for the 8 th consecutive month [ a below 50 reading indicates a contraction]. WTI averaged at USD 46.6/bbl in October; +0.5% MoM, -43% YoY, -31% YTD. At one point during October, WTI reached USD 50.14/bbl but data indicating an oversupply in U.S crude pressured prices downwards. Bloomberg reported that the U.S plans to sell millions of barrels of crude in its Strategic Petroleum Reserve between as part of a budget deal, reached between Congressional leaders and the White House, leading to a further downfall in WTI prices. The sale, would total 8% of the 695mn barrels, is due to start in 2018 at annual rate of 5mn barrels, rising to 10mn by 2023 and totaling 58mn barrels by The Brent-WTI spread tightened to USD 2.81/bbl in October versus USD 2.97/bbl in the prior month. Demand According to the IEA, crude demand growth is expected to slowdown in 2016 to 1.25mn bpd from growth of 1.8mn bpd in. Crude demand growth in was supported by a number of factors such as low prices and India s increase consumption, the fastest witnessed in over a decade, which are expected to fade in OPEC maintained its and 2016 world oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 1.50mn bpd and 1.25mn bpd respectively. In 2016, OECD crude demand is expected to increase by 0.15mn bpd while non-oecd demand is forecasted to grow by 1.1mn bpd. Fatema Al Doseri (Ext.5078) Supply The IEA stated that global crude supplies reached higher than 97mn bpd in October as non-opec output recovered MoM. Non-OPEC supply is expected to fall in 2016 by more than 0.6mn bpd with US light tight oil being the main driver for the decline. OPEC expects non-opec supply to increase by 0.72mn bpd in and contract by 0.13mn bpd in 2016 reaching 57.11mn bpd. OPEC cited that the impact of capex cuts across the world and lower tight oil from the U.S are the main drivers behind contraction in supply in Shale drillers in the US have cut spending and the number of employees this year as crude prices remains low. The IEA reported stable OPEC crude supply in October at 31.76mn bpd as higher supply from Libya, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria offset the fall in production in Iraq and Kuwait. [email protected] SICO All Rights Reserved Attention is drawn to the disclaimer and other information on Page 13

2 Regional Developments Dana Gas reports 3Q net loss of AED 28mn due to lower oil prices [November 15, ] Dana Gas reported 3Q net loss of AED 28mn vs AED 139m profit in 3Q14. Revenue fell 47% YoY to AED 341mn due to decline in hydrocarbons prices. Average production in 3Q15 declined 11% YoY to 60,800 barrels of oil equivalent per day, primarily to natural declines in the Nile Delta fields in Egypt. Dana Gas has continued to drive further cost reductions during the third quarter. Since the beginning of the year the company has cut USD 5mn in costs by lowering G&A as well as reducing the workforce. As at 30 September, Dana Gas total receivables were USD 1.071bn (31 December : USD 992mn). The management plans to cut 2016 operating costs by 10-20% and sees 4Q15 similarly financially challenged S TAQA starts selling power from India hydro project [November 8, ] Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (TAQA) has begun selling electricity from its hydro power project in north India, which will provide another revenue stream for the company. The 100 megawatt Sorang hydro power project started selling power to northern India from Oct. 31. The facility can supply emissions-free electricity to 500,000 homes at full capacity. TAQA holds a minority stake in Himachal Sorang Power Private Ltd, the developer of the Sorang hydro power project in the north-indian state of Himachal Pradesh. TAQA posts 3Q loss on weak oil prices [November 11, ] TAQA reported a 3Q net loss of AED 416mn, compared with a net profit of AED 107mn in the prior-year period. Revenue from oil and gas more than halved to AED 1.5bn in 3Q from a year earlier. This dragged the firm's total revenue in the quarter to AED 4.8bn from AED 7.0bn in the same quarter last year. For the nine-month period this year, TAQA's losses totaled AED 581mn compared with a profit of AED 620mn for the same period in. Costcutting measures led to savings of AED 1.1bn in 3Q15 with capex reduced by 43%. TAQA is ahead of its targeted annual savings of AED 550mn in, and AED 1.5bn by end of It has also reduced its global oil and gas headcount by 25% since July and Abu Dhabi headquarter s headcount by 39%. TAQA refinanced USD 3.1bn revolving credit facility at better terms in August. 2

3 Contents Price monitor 4 Global Oil Demand and Supply Estimates 5 Oil Demand Trends 6 Oil Supply Trends 7 OPEC Spare Capacity and OECD Commercial Inventory 8 OPEC Production 9 Country wise Production Trend 10 US Product Inventory 12 3

4 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Price monitor Exhibit 1: Price Monitor Crude (USD/bbl) 1 Month 1 Year Average Price (YTD) Current Price MoM% YoY% Ago Ago 11/22/15 YoY% WTI % 76-47% % Brent % 79-47% % OPEC Ref. Basket % 75-49% % Arab Light % 75-49% % Gas (USD/mmbtu) Nymex HH % % % NBP Gas % % % Source: Bloomberg, SICO Research Exhibit 2: Prices: Historical (USD/bbl unless mentioned) 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q WTI YoY(%) -9% -1% 12% 9% 5% 10% -8% -25% -51% -44% -53% 105% 2% -5% Brent YoY (%) 0% -3% 3% 1% -4% 7% -7% -31% -50% -43% -51% 75% 0% -9% Nymex HH Gas (USD/mmbtu) YoY (%) -2% 20% 2% 3% 3% 14% 11% -3% -21% -41% -30% 30% 6% 6% Source: Bloomberg, SICO Research Exhibit 3: Brent Oil Price in USD/bbl Exhibit 4: Nymex Natural Gas Price in USD/mmbtu Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg 4

5 Global Oil Demand and Supply Estimates Exhibit 5: Global Oil Supply, Demand Comparison (mn bpd) Growth Non-OPEC Growth Growth GDP Demand Growth (mn bpd) (YoY %) Supply (mn bpd) (YoY %) Growth (%) EIA % % IEA % % 3.1% OPEC % % 3.1% Average % % 3.1% Source: IEA, EIA, OPEC Exhibit 6: Global Oil Supply & Demand Balance (mn bpd) Demand 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q OECD YoY 1.8% 0.7% 1.0% -1.5% 3.1% 3.3% 2.6% -0.2% 2.0% 2.7% -4.6% -0.6% Non-OECD YoY 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 18.4% -1.5% -0.7% -0.1% 1.7% 1.2% 3.6% -2.8% 2.7% Total Oil demand YoY 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 7.6% 1.3% 1.6% 1.0% 1.6% 2.2% 3.2% -3.6% 1.3% Supply Non-OPEC YoY 2.7% 4.1% 3.3% 9.1% 4.8% 4.3% 4.9% 3.9% 3.4% 3.4% -6.9% 4.6% OPEC Crude YoY -2.5% -3.0% -3.2% 2.6% -2.9% -0.1% 2.7% 0.9% 4.4% 5.7% -4.1% -0.1% OPEC other liquids YoY -0.7% -1.7% -0.8% 13.6% -0.9% -0.3% 0.3% 1.9% 2.5% 3.8% -2.7% -0.6% Total Oil Supply YoY 0.6% 1.2% 0.8% 7.2% 1.8% 2.5% 3.9% 2.8% 3.7% 4.2% -5.7% 2.6% OCED commercial inventories Demand Cover (Days) Pric e (USD/bbl)

6 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Oil Demand Trends Exhibit 7: Oil Demand- OECD vs Non- OECD (mn bpd) OECD Demand) Non-OECD Demand OECD growth(%) Global growth (%) 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Exhibit 8: Oil Demand- OECD vs Non- OECD OECD (% global demand) Non-OECD (% global demand) OECD growth(%) Non OECD growth (%) Global growth (%) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 6

7 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct Oil Supply Trends Exhibit 9: YoY Oil Supply- OPEC: crude and NGLs (mn bpd) 40 OPEC Crude OPEC NGLs OPEC Supply (% global supply) % 42% 41% 40% 39% 38% 37% 36% 35% Exhibit 10: MoM Oil Supply- Global Supply vs OPEC Crude (mn bpd) 32 OPEC Crude Global Oil Supply Exhibit 11: YoY Oil Supply- Non OPEC Crude (mn bpd) 60 Non OPEC Crude Non OPEC Supply (% global supply) % 62% 60% 58% 56% 54% 7

8 Crude Imventory (Days) OPEC Spare Capacity and OECD Commercial Inventory Exhibit 12: OECD commercial inventories demand cover (days) Year avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Exhibit 13: Spare Capacity- Long Term Trend (mn bpd) OPEC Spare Capacity Spare Capacity (% global demand) % 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0 0% 8

9 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 OPEC Production Exhibit 14: in Kbpd Crude Produc tion Change Spare Oc t-15 (MoM) Capac ity Capac ity Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Qatar Iran Iraq Algeria Angola Libya Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela Total OPEC Crude Total OPEC ex Iraq Oman Bahrain Total GCC Crude Source: Bloomberg, SICO Research Exhibit 15: OPEC Production and Quota Compliance OPEC Crude Production Series2 110% % 70% 50% 30% % Source: Bloomberg, SICO Research 9

10 Country wise Production Trend Exhibit 16: OPEC ex Iraq (in Kbpd) 31,000 29,000 27,000 25,000 23,000 Exhibit 17: Saudi Arabia (in Kbpd) 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 Exhibit 18: UAE (in Kbpd) 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 Exhibit 19: Kuwait (in Kbpd) 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 Exhibit 20: Qatar (in Kbpd) Exhibit 21: Iran (in Kbpd) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 10

11 Exhibit 22: Algeria (in Kbpd) 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, Exhibit 23: Angola (in Kbpd) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 Exhibit 24: Ecuador (in Kbpd) Exhibit 25: Libya (in Kbpd) 2,000 1,600 1, Exhibit 26: Nigeria (in Kbpd) 2,500 2,200 1,900 1,600 1,300 1,000 Exhibit 27: Venezuela (in Kbpd) 2,900 2,700 2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 11

12 US Product Inventory Exhibit 28: US Oklahoma crude inventory ( 000 bbls) 530, , , ,000 5 Year avg. 370, , ,000 Exhibit 29: US total crude inventory ( 000 bbls) 74,000 64,000 54,000 44,000 5 Year avg. 34,000 24, ,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 14,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Exhibit 30: US total gasoline inventory ( 000 bbls) 255, ,000 Exhibit 31: US total distillate inventory ( 000 bbls) 180, , , ,000 5 Year avg. 140, ,000 5 Year avg. 175,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 100,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Exhibit 32: US refinery utilisation (% Year avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 12

13 Contact Details BMB Centre, 1st Floor P.O Box 1331, Diplomatic Area Manama Kingdom of Bahrain Investment Research NOTES EIA: Energy Information Administration; IEA: International Energy Agency; OPEC: Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries CFTC non-commercial contracts include future positions only. OPEC quota compliance based on Bloomberg estimates; may differ from actual production. Bahrain monthly production figures not available; based on historical production data and SICO estimates. Head of Research Nishit Lakhotia, CFA, CAIA Tel: (Direct) Brokerage Fadhel Makhlooq Tel: (Direct): Visit us at Securities & Investment Company BSC Disclaimer This report does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, any offer for sale or subscription of, or any invitation to offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The information and opinions contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness and are subject to change without notice. Investors must make their own investment decisions. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Nothing in this report should be construed as investment or financial advice or as an advice to buy or sell the securities of the company referred to in this report. SICO and/or its clients may have positions in or options on the securities mentioned in this report or any related investments, may effect transactions or may buy, sell or offer to buy or sell such securities or any related investments. Additional information on the contents of this report is available on request. Copyright Notice Securities and Investment Company. This report is being supplied to the recipient for information and not for circulation and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on to any other person or published, in whole or in part. Copyright Notice 13 Securities & Investment Company BSC This report is being supplied to the recipient for information and not for circulation and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on to any other person or published, in whole or in part.