US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

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1 US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators February 4, 216 Dr. Edward Yardeni Debbie Johnson Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Key Global Indicators 1 Global Boom Bust Barometer 2 US Leading Indicators 3 ECRI 4 Citigroup Economic Surprise Index 5 US Unemployment Claims 6-7 US Petroleum Usage 8 US Electricity Output 9-1 US Railcar Loadings US Federal Tax Receipts & Deposits 15 US Business Credit 16 MBA Mortgage Applications Survey 17 US Commercial Paper 18 US Liquid Assets 19-2 US Profits Cycle Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 5 24 Gasoline Prices & Rig Count 25 February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.

3 Key Global Indicators 65 6 Figure 1. INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1967=) Volume of World Exports (25=, sa) Nov * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy. 65 Figure 2. INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1967=) Nov 17 5 Value of World Exports (IMF) (trillion dollars, annualized, nsa) / * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and IMF. Page 1 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.

4 14 13 Figure 3. YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER* Global Boom Bust Barometer / * Average of nearby price of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 1. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics. 16 Figure 4. COMMODITY PRICES /3 8 6 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* 6 4 Brent Crude Oil Futures Price** (dollars per barrel) 2/ * Times 2 and divided by 1. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Nearby futures price. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics. Page 2 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.

5 US Leading Indicators Figure 5. LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS 13 1/ ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=, 4-wa) Aug Conference Board LEI (24=) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) Figure 6. LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS 1/ ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=, 4-wa) Dec Conference Board CEI (24=) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). 5 4 Page 3 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.

6 Figure 7. ECRI ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX & HIGH YIELD CORPORATE SPREAD (basis points, inverted scale) High-Yield Corporate Spread* ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=) /3 1/ Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. * High yield corporate less 1-year Treasury yield. Source: Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) Figure 8. ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX & S&P 5 2/ / S&P 5 ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) Page 4 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.

7 Figure 9. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX (percent) Based on US Dollar Source: Citigroup. Citigroup Economic Surprise Index 2/ Figure 1. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX (percent) /3-5 - Based on G1 Currencies Source: Citigroup. - Page 5 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.

8 Figure 11. INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (thousands, sa) US Unemployment Claims Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Labor. 1/ Figure 12. INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (thousands, sa, four-week moving average) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Labor. 1/ Page 6 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.

9 11 1 Figure 13. CONTINUING UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (millions, sa) US Unemployment Claims Continuing Continuing + Extended* /9 2 1 * Extended claims are nsa. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Figure 14. CONTINUING UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (millions, sa, four-week moving average) Number of Unemployed Continuing Continuing + Extended* Dec 1/ * Extended claims are nsa. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 7 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.

10 US Petroleum Usage 22 Figure 15. US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS SUPPLIED (million barrels per day, 52-week ma) Total* (19.7) 1/ * Includes motor gasoline, distillate fuel oils, and all other products. Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics. 3.2 Figure 16. US GASOLINE DEMAND & VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED Nov / Gasoline Usage (million barrels per day, 52-wa) Vehicle Miles Traveled (trillion miles, 12-month sum) Source: US Department of Energy. 7. Page 8 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.

11 US Electricity Output 8 78 Figure 17. US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* (GW hours, 52-week moving average) 1/ * Excluding Hawaii and Alaska. Source: Edison Electric Institute. 8 6 Figure 18. US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. REAL GDP (yearly percent change) Q4 2 1/ Electric Utility Output (52-week moving average) Real GDP * Excluding Hawaii and Alaska. Source: Edison Electric Institute. Page 9 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.

12 US Electricity Output 8 78 Figure 19. US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. PRODUCTION (52-week moving average) 1/ Electricity Output (GW hours) Total Manufacturing Production * Excluding Hawaii and Alaska. Source: Edison Electric Institute Figure 2. US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. GDP (52-week moving average) 1/ Electricity Output (GW hours) Real GDP (billion dollars, saar) * Excluding Hawaii and Alaska. Source: Edison Electric Institute. Page 1 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.

13 US Railcar Loadings 6 Figure 21. RAILCAR LOADINGS* (thousand units, 26-wa) Total / * Carloads plus intermodal. Source: Atlantic Systems and Standard & Poor s. 4 Figure 22. RAILCAR LOADINGS (thousand units, 26-wa) 4 35 Carloads / Intermodal Source: Atlantic Systems. Page 11 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.

14 3 Figure 23. RAILCAR LOADINGS: MOTOR VEHICLES US Railcar Loadings / Motor Vehicles Loadings (thousand units, 26-wa) Sales (million units, saar) Source: Atlantic Systems and Haver Analytics Figure 24. RAILCAR LOADINGS: LUMBER & WOOD PRODUCTS Lumber & Wood Products Loadings (thousand units, 26-wa, sa) 1/3 1 8 Housing Starts (thousand units, saar) Source: Atlantic Systems and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 2 Page 12 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.

15 US Railcar Loadings 16 Figure 25. RAILCAR LOADINGS (thousand units, 26-wa) Coal Nonmetallic Minerals / / Chemicals & Petroleum Products 1/3 Pulp & Paper Products / Metals & Products Waste & Scrap Materials / Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association / Page 13 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.

16 US Railcar Loadings 25 Figure 26. ATA TRUCK TONNAGE INDEX & INTERMODAL RAILCAR LOADINGS Railcar Loadings: Intermodal Containers (thousand units, 26-wa) (235.4) 1/3 Dec ATA Truck Tonnage Index (2=, sa) (135.6) Source: American Trucking Association and Atlantic Systems Figure 27. RAILCAR LOADINGS: INTERMODAL TRAILERS (thousand units, 26-wa) / Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association. 3 2 Page 14 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.

17 US Federal Tax Receipts & Deposits Figure 28. FEDERAL TAX RECEIPTS & DEPOSITS: INDIVIDUAL & PAYROLL (billion dollars) Dec / Deposits: Withheld Income & Employment Taxes (26-day sum) Receipts: Individual Income Taxes Plus Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts* (12-month sum) * Employment and General Retirement, Unemployment Insurance, and Other Retirement. Source: US Treasury and Haver Analytics Figure 29. FEDERAL TAX RECEIPTS & DEPOSITS: CORPORATE INCOME TAXES (billion dollars) /2 Dec Deposits (26-day sum) Receipts (12-month sum) Source US Treasury and Haver Analytics. Page 15 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.

18 24 22 Figure 3. US Business Credit SHORT-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT & INVENTORIES (billion dollars) 1/ C&I Loans Plus Nonfinancial Commercial Paper (nsa) Nov Manufacturing & Trade Inventories (sa) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census Figure 31. COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LOANS (billion dollars, nsa) NONFINANCIAL COMMERCIAL PAPER (billion dollars, nsa) Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 1/2 1/ Page 16 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.

19 Figure 32. MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS: NEW PURCHASE INDEX & SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES Source: Mortgage Bankers of America. MBA Mortgage Applications Survey Mortgage Applications: New Purchase Index (4-week average, sa) New Plus Existing Single-Family Home Sales (million units, saar) 1/ Figure 33. MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS: REFINANCING INDEX (4-week average, sa) / Source: Mortgage Bankers Association. Page 17 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.

20 US Commercial Paper 24 Figure 34. COMMERCIAL PAPER OUTSTANDING (billion dollars, sa) Total Domestic Financial Foreign Financial Foreign Bank (nsa) 1/ / Asset Backed Total Financial 1/ Nonfinancial / / Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page 18 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.

21 US Liquid Assets Figure 35. LIQUID ASSETS* (trillion dollars, sa, ratio scale) 1/ * Total savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits, and total money market mutual funds held by individuals & institutions. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Figure 36. LIQUID ASSETS* As a percent of Wilshire 5 (57.3) S&P 5 Market Cap (67.8) /2 1/ * Total savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits, and total money market mutual funds held by individuals & institutions. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Standard & Poor s Corporation, and Wall Street Journal. Page 19 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.

22 Figure 37. INTEREST-BEARING DEPOSITS (billion dollars, sa) US Liquid Assets Savings Deposits (including Money Market Deposit Accounts)* Total Small Time Deposits** /18 1/ * Included in M2. ** Included in M2. IRA and Keogh account balances are excluded. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Figure 38. MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS (trillion dollars, sa) Held By: Retail* Institutions** 1/ / * Included in M2. IRA and Keogh account balances are excluded. ** Included in MZM, but not in M1 or M2. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Page 2 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.

23 US Profits Cycle Figure 39. S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS Forward Earnings* 1/ US Coincident Economic Indicators (24=) Dec * Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Conference Board. 12 Figure 4. S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (yearly percent change) /28-4 Forward Earnings* -2-8 US Coincident Economic Indicators * Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Conference Board. Page 21 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.

24 US Profits Cycle 7. Figure 41. S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & FACTORY ORDERS Forward Earnings* (weekly) 1/ Total New Factory Orders (trillion dollars, saar) Nov * Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census Figure 42. S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & NEW FACTORY ORDERS (yearly percent change) S&P 5 Forward Earnings* New Factory Orders (3-ma) Nov 1/ * 52-week forward consensus expected S&P 5 operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page 22 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.

25 Figure 43. US Profits Cycle S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (yearly percent change) Forward Earnings* US Industrial Production 1/28 Dec * Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 4 Figure 44. S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & INDEX OF AGGREGATE WEEKLY HOURS (yearly percent change) /28-2 S&P 5 Forward Earnings* -5 Aggregate Hours * 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 23 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.

26 7 Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 5 Figure 45. YRI BOOM-BUST BAROMETER & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX Boom-Bust Barometer* Consumer Comfort Index 1/ / * CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor. 2 Figure 46. YRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX & S&P 5 INDEX /3 1/ S&P 5 Index YRI Weekly Leading Index* * Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page 24 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.

27 Figure 47. GASOLINE PRICES (dollars per gallon) Gasoline Prices & Rig Count National Average Pump Price (weekly) Futures Price (daily)* /27 2/ * Nearby contract. Source: Oil & Gas Journal and Haver Analytics Figure 48. BAKER HUGHES ACTIVE RIG COUNT (units) Total US (619) Gas (121) Oil (498) / Source: Baker Hughes Inc Page 25 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.

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