METHODOLOGY The NBC News Online Survey was conducted online by SurveyMonkey September 16-8, 2015 among a national sample of 5,113 adults aged 18 and over. Respondents for this non-probability survey were selected using an algorithm from among the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this survey have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and region using the Census Bureau s American Community Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States. Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error. Polls conducted in one day may include additional error due to the limited time period that panelists have to respond to and complete the survey. To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate, meaning we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error. For example, if 47 percent of voters say they support Candidate A and 43 percent of voters support Candidate B, and the error estimate is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, Candidate A could be supported by as low as 44 percent of voters and Candidate B could have as high as 47 percent of support. Therefore, Candidate A does not have a "lead." The following table provides the unweighted sample sizes and the error estimate that has been calculated in place of the margin of sampling error for a variable that is expected to have close to an even split in most groupings (such as gender): Group Unweighted N Plus or minus Total sample 5,113 2.0 percentage points Republican RVs 2,070 2.9 percentage points Democrat RVs 1,774 3.2 percentage points 18-29 720 4.1 percentage points 30-44 1467 3.1 percentage points 45-64 1864 2.2 percentage points 65+ 1062 3.2 percentage points White 3977 1.5 percentage points Black 378 5.2 percentage points Hispanic 317 5.9 percentage points Other 441 4.9 percentage points 1
TOPLINES Questions 12-13, 16-19 previously released; question 5 held for future releases. 1. In general, do you think things in this country are heading in the right direction or the wrong direction? Right Direction Wrong Direction DK/NA 9.17-18.15 30 67 2 8.7-10.15 30 68 3 7.13-19.15 33 65 2 6.3-7.15 31 66 3 4.6-8.15 35 64 1 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Approve Disapprove Net Strongly approve Somewhat approve Net Strongly disapprove Somewhat disapprove DK/ NA 9.17-18.15 48 22 26 52 38 14 1 8.7-10.15 45 22 23 54 43 11 1 7.13-19.15 48 24 24 51 38 13 1 6.3-7.15 51 16 35 47 31 16 1 4.6-8.15 51 19 32 48 28 20 0 3. Which one of the following issues matters MOST in your decision for whom you are supporting for president in 2016? [RANDOMIZE RESPONSES] 9.17-18.15 Immigration 9 Terrorism 6 Jobs and the economy 28 Taxes and government spending 16 Economic inequality 10 Education 6 Climate change 3 Health care 8 Religious freedom 6 Foreign policy 5 Campaign finance 1 DK/NA 2 4. Which one of the following candidate qualities matters MOST in your decision for whom you are supporting for president in 2016? [RANDOMIZE RESPONSES] 9.17-18.15 Shares my values 12 Right experience 4 Is honest and trustworthy 20 2
Cares about people like me 12 Can bring about needed change 32 Has the right temperament 2 Is a strong leader 16 Don t know 2 [SPLIT SAMPLE Q6 & Q7] 6. Thinking about the 2016 election, if a candidate for president supports cutting off federal government funding to Planned Parenthood, would that make you more likely to vote for him or her, less likely, or wouldn t it make much difference to your vote? More likely to Less likely to vote for vote for Not much difference N/A 9.17-18.15 32 40 28-7. Thinking about the 2016 election, if a candidate supports a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, would that make you more likely to vote for him or her, less likely, or wouldn t it make much difference to your vote? More likely to Less likely to vote for vote for Not much difference N/A 9.17-18.15 36 37 27 - [SPLIT SAMPLE Q8 and Q9] 8. Thinking about the 2016 election, if a candidate for president wants to send ground troops to Iraq or Syria to fight ISIS (Islamic militants), would that make you more likely to vote for him or her, less likely, or wouldn t it make much difference to your vote? More likely to vote for Less likely to vote for Not much difference N/A 9.17-18.15 32 37 31-8.7-10.15 9. Thinking about the 2016 election, if a candidate for president wants to withdraw from the recent multinational agreement with Iran (which lifts sanctions in exchange for Iran curtailing their nuclear program), would that make you more likely to vote for him or her, less likely, or wouldn t it make much difference to your vote? More likely to vote for Less likely to vote for Not much difference N/A 9.17-18.15 39 33 28-10. In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent? Republican Democrat Independent DK/No answer 9.17-18.15 29 31 37 4 8.7-10.15 30 32 36 2 7.13-19.15 27 33 38 2 6.3-7.15 23 35 40 2 3
4.6-8.15 23 34 41 2 11. [ASK IF INDEPENDENT or SKIP] As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? Republican Democrat Neither DK/NA 9.17-18.15 28 23 45 4 8.7-10.15 30 23 41 4 7.13-19.15 27 24 44 6 6.3-7.15 25 28 47 0 4.6-8.15 26 34 38 2 [ASK OF DEMOCRATS AND LEAN DEMOCRATS] 14. Here is a list of possible candidates for the Democratic nomination for president in 2016. If the 2016 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote? [RANDOMIZE 1-7] 9.17-18.15 RV 8.7-10.15 RV 7.20-26.15 RV 4.6-8.15 RV Joe Biden 15 11 7 7 Lincoln Chafee * * * N/A Hillary Clinton 41 49 48 50 Lawrence Lessig * NA NA NA Martin O Malley 1 1 1 2 Bernie Sanders 29 25 26 5 Elizabeth Warren N/A N/A N/A 16 Jim Webb 1 1 1 1 Someone else 3 4 3 1 Wouldn t vote/ Don t know 9 9 13 19 No answer 1 1 1 * 15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you expect to win the Democratic nomination for president in 2016? 9.17-18.15 RV 4.6-8.15 RV Joe Biden 9 5 Lincoln Chafee * NA Hillary Clinton 58 68 Lawrence Lessig * NA Martin O Malley * 0 Bernie Sanders 14 1 Elizabeth Warren NA 1 Jim Webb * 0 Don t know 16 23 Someone else (please specify) 1 1 No answer 1 0 4
20. In general, how would you describe your views on most political issues? Are you: Very conservative Conservative Moderate Liberal Very liberal DK/NA 9.17-18.15 10 25 37 16 8 4 8.7-10.15 13 25 36 15 8 3 7.13-19.15 8 24 40 17 8 2 6.3-7.15 7 20 45 19 7 2 4.6-8.15 6 19 39 23 12 2 21. Some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you registered to vote in the election district where you now live, or aren t you? Yes, registered to vote No, not registered to vote Don t know* N/A 9.17-18.15 81 13 4 2 22. Are you: Male Female 9.17-18.15 48 52 23. How old are you? 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-65 65 and older DK/NA 9.17-18.15 13 17 17 19 16 18-24. Some people think of themselves as evangelical or born again Christians. Do you ever think of yourself in either of these ways? Yes No DK/NA 9.17-18.15 32 65 2 25. How often do you attend religious or worship services, not including weddings and funerals? More than once a week Once a week One or twice a month A few times a year Seldom Never DK/NA 9.17-18.15 11 21 11 17 21 19 2 5
26. What was the last grade of school you completed? Did not complete high school High school or G.E.D Associate degree Some College College Post graduate degree DK/NA 9.17-18.15 5 37 9 23 15 12-27. Are you: 9.17-18.15 White 66 Black 12 Hispanic 14 Asian 3 Other 5 DK/NA 28. My total family income last year was: Under $15,000 $15,000- $29,999 $30,000- $49,999 $50,000- $74,999 $75,000- $99,999 $100,000- $150,000 Over $150,000 DK/ NA 9.17-18.15 10 14 18 18 12 13 10 6 6