www.prem10.co.uk Premier League Season Bets Report 2015/16 Welcome to your Prem10 Season Bets 2015/16 report... Containing Outright Winner, Top Scorer and Relegation bets & advice, all based on 23 years of Premier League trends and the very latest stats and team & player information... For each market we re looking at: 1. What do the stats tell us? 2. What are the 2015/16 prices? 3. Which bets standout at the prices available? Of course, the stats don t tell the whole story. Managers, new owners... player transfers, injuries... will of course all play a part in deciding the 2015/16 Premier League champion... top scorer... and relegated sides. But when it comes to identifying the best bets and the best value prices I firmly believe that using the stats below will give you the best possible starting point.
Here are our 2015/16 Stats You Need To Know and Prem10 Picks for the big season-long markets Outright Winner, Relegation and Top Scorer... The stats you need to know... Premier League 2015/16 Outright Winner Only a select few clubs have ever got their name on the Premier League trophy. The stats tell us to focus on the top teams and rule out any big-odds outsiders here... In the last 10 seasons, only 3 clubs have won the Premier League title: Man Utd (4), Chelsea (4), Man City (2) In the Premier League s 23-year history, only 5 clubs have won the title (Arsenal and Blackburn the others) All 23 Premier League winners finished in the Top 3 in the previous season Each Way betting: bookies pay 1/3 rd the odds for the top 2 places. Looking for a consistent Top 2 side, the stats tell us that: Man Utd Top 2 in 6 of the last 10 seasons Chelsea Top 2 in 7 of the last 10 Man City Top 2 in 4 seasons running Arsenal Top 2 in none of the last 10 seasons Liverpool Top 2 in 2 of the last 10 Key stats: In 90% of Premier League seasons, the team that won the Premier League finished 1 st or 2 nd the following season In 67% of seasons, the team that finished 2 nd in the Premier League then finished 1 st or 2 nd the following season History tells us to stick to Chelsea, Man City and Man Utd. No other team has won the league in the last decade. Arsenal have failed time and again to penetrate the Top 2 places in the end of season table. While Liverpool dropped off significantly last season, having finished 2 nd in 2013/14. Here are this season s prices (decimal odds in brackets)... Outright Winner betting: Chelsea 7/4 (2.75) Man City 3/1 (4.00) Arsenal 4/1 (5.00) Man Utd 11/2 (6.50) Liverpool 28/1 (29.00) Tottenham 150/1 (151.00) 300/1 bar No surprise of course that reigning champions Chelsea are the favourites for the 2015/16 Premier League title, followed in the betting by last season s runners-up Man City...
Chelsea won more games and kept more Clean Sheets than any other side last season, and were unbeaten at Home in the league Man City were top scorers in the Premier League for the second season running (averaging 2.18 Goals For per game) Other significant stats to consider here are the Top 5 teams records against each other last season: Chelsea v rest of Top 5 = W3 D4 L1. Points won = 13 Man City v rest of Top 5 = W3 D3 L2. Points won = 12 Man Utd v rest of Top 5 = W3 D3 L2. Points won = 12 Tottenham v rest of Top 5 = W2 D2 L4. Points won = 8 Arsenal v rest of Top 5 = W1 D4 L3. Points won = 7 Those Top 5 records see Chelsea top of the tree, with Arsenal at the bottom... Arsenal are third favourites for the title at 4/1 (5.00), but considering that poor record against their closest rivals and the fact that they haven t managed a Top 2 Finish in 10 years Arsenal s price doesn t look good value to me. The arrival of Petr Cech in goal looks one of the best signings of the summer, but with no managerial change during the 10-year period of stats we re looking at the fact that Arsene Wenger has consistently been unable to get Arsenal back in the real sharp end of the title race is a fact that cannot be ignored. Dual Forecast The stats point clearly to Chelsea and Man City at the top of the Outright Winner betting. No surprises there. But with a plethora of betting markets available, we don t need to pick one of those two to lift the trophy. There is little Each Way value to be had on the two favourites, but the Dual Forecast catches my eye. Just like last season, Chelsea and Man City are the rightful favourites and backing them to occupy the Top 2 spots in any order looks a better option than picking one above the other to win the league, at similar prices... The Dual Forecast market asks you to name the teams that will come 1 st and 2 nd in the Premier League (in any order) Man City have come 1 st or 2 nd in each of the last 4 seasons Chelsea and Man City have been the most consistent top-of-the-table sides in the last three seasons... Liverpool failed to repeat their 2 nd place finish of 2013/14 after losing top scorer Luis Suarez, and Man Utd haven t finished in the Top 2 since winning the league in Sir Alex Ferguson s final season in 2012/13. Removing Liverpool and Man Utd from the data sees Chelsea and Man City as the consistent Top 2 in each of the last three Premier League seasons The Dual Forecast option of Chelsea/ Man City stands out at 9/4 (3.25) with William Hill, BetVictor, Skybet and 2/1 (3.00) in general. See Stats Picks below.
Top Scorer Bookies offer 1/4 odds Each Way for the top 4 places in the Premier League Top Goalscorer market... Last season the payouts came from these players: 1. Sergio Aguero (Man City, 2 nd ) 26 goals WON 2. Harry Kane (Tottenham, 5 th ) 21 goals PLACED 3. Diego Costa (Chelsea, 1 st ) 20 goals PLACED 4. Charlie Austin (QPR, 20 th ) 18 goals PLACED The year before, in 2013/14, the payouts came from: 1. Luis Suarez (Liverpool, 2 nd ) 31 goals WON 2. Daniel Sturridge (Liverpool, 2 nd ) 21 goals PLACED 3. Yaya Toure (Man City, 1 st ) 20 goals PLACED 4. Sergio Aguero (Man City, 1 st ) 17 goals PLACED (DEAD HEAT) 4. Wayne Rooney (Man Utd, 7 th ) 17 goals PLACED (DEAD HEAT) One thing that jumps out there is the fact that players from teams finishing 5 th, 7 th and even rock bottom of the Premier League table in 20 th (QPR last season) have produced a player capable of giving an Each Way payout in the Top Scorer market. I ve examined the last 10 Premier League seasons to uncover exactly what we what we are looking for in a Top Scorer bet/ player. The stats reveal several key factors Key stats: The player finishing as Top Scorer scores an average of 25 goals For an Each Way payout (top 4 places), we are looking for a contender to score 15+ goals The Top Scorer makes an average of 32 Premier League appearances and it goes without saying that we re looking for a first choice striker, not a benchwarmer The Top Scorer historically plays for a team that will finish in the Top 4 that has been the case in each of the last 10 Premier League seasons, and in 14 of the last 15 In the Premier League s 23-year history, the Premier League Top Scorer has only played for the side that won the title on 8 occasions (35%). The Top Scorer plays for a Top 4 side but not necessarily the team that wins the title The Top Scorer will have at least one Premier League season under his belt. Nobody has finished as Top Scorer in their debut Premier League season Here are this season s prices (decimal odds in brackets)... Top Scorer betting: Goals last season: Sergio Aguero (Man City) 3/1 (4.00) 26 Diego Costa (Chelsea) 6/1 (7.00) 20
Wayne Rooney (Man Utd) 12/1 (13.00) 12 Harry Kane (Tottenham) 14/1 (15.00) 21 Christian Benteke (Liverpool) 16/1 (17.00) 13* Alexis Sanchez (Arsenal) 20/1 (21.00) 16 Eden Hazard (Chelsea) 25/1 (26.00) 14 Olivier Giroud (Arsenal) 25/1 (26.00) 14 Memphis Depay (Man Utd) 28/1 (29.00) n/a Theo Walcott (Arsenal) 33/1 (34.00) 5 Daniel Sturridge (Liverpool) 33/1 (34.00) 4 Radamel Falcao (Chelsea) 33/1 (34.00) 4* Romelu Lukaku (Everton) 40/1 (41.00) 10 Wilfried Bony (Man City) 33/1 (34.00) 9* Loic Remy (Chelsea) 40/1 (41.00) 7 Graziano Pelle (Southampton) 66/1 (67.00) 12 Saido Berahino (West Brom) 66/1 (67.00) 14 Danny Ings (Liverpool) 66/1 (67.00) 11* Roberto Firmino (Liverpool) 66/1 (67.00) n/a 80/1 bar * Played for a different Premier League club last season (Benteke/ Aston Villa, Falcao/ Man Utd, Bony/ Swansea, Ings/ Burnley). Using the Key Stats above as our guide criteria, we can put a line through a few of those players straight away to help narrow down the list of potential candidates for an Each Way bet... New arrivals and unknown quantities Depay and Firmino on the grounds that no player has ever landed the Top Scorer award in their debut Premier League season Sturridge (injury concerns) and Remy (not a first-choice striker) with the concern being that both may struggle to break the 30-appearance this season As the stats above show, we don t necessarily need to be looking to the potential Premier League winner in order to find the Top Scorer. And on the grounds of price, Man City s Aguero and Chelsea s Costa don t appeal at odds of 3/1 and 6/1 respectively. There s little Each Way incentive with those two. With Each Way betting in mind, we don t need to rule out players from non Top 4 sides, either. And we can allow certain players room for progression from last season with the 15+ goals target in mind for a Place finish in the top 4 of the 2015/16 scorer chart. Players that catch the eye in this respect as potential Each Way value are... 20/1 Alexis Sanchez (Arsenal) hit 16 goals in his debut season last year, and was just 2 goals off the Top 4 Places. Arsenal have finished in the Premier League top 4 in 19 consecutive seasons... 16/1 Christian Benteke (Liverpool) scored 13 times for relegation-threatened Villa last season (from 26 starts). Back in 2012/13 Benteke found the net 19 times from 32 starts for Villa. A move to Liverpool this season gives him the chance to break the 15-goal barrier again... 66/1 Graziano Pelle (Southampton) an impressive debut season saw Pelle find the net 12 times for Southampton, on their way to a successful 7 th place finish in the league. And an equally impressive record of 37 starts from a possible
38 shows he maintained fitness and held down a first-team place throughout. Pelle started last season with 6 goals in 8 Premier League games and ended it with 4 goals in his last 7. A second-season progression can be also be anticipated here and Each Way terms of 1/4 odds offer 16/1+ for a Place payout... Looking beyond the short-price players at the top of the list and ruling out several others based on the criteria above three players catch the eye as Each Way selections for the 2015/16 season: Sanchez @ 20/1, Benteke @ 16/1 and Pelle @ 66/1. See Value Picks below. Here s a market that the stats and the poor value prices say we should avoid... Outright Winner/ Top Scorer Double Key stat: In the Premier League s 23-year history, the Premier League Top Scorer has only played for the side that won the title on 8 occasions (35%) The Premier League Top Scorer invariably plays for a team finishing in the Top 4 but NOT necessarily the team that wins the title. The bookies would have you believe that this market allows you to boost your Top Scorer odds by backing a player in this market but the stats say otherwise. And the prices on offer represent poor value when compared to the prices in the individual Outright Winner and Top Scorer markets... For example look at the prices for the favourite in the double market: Chelsea to win the Premier League = 7/4 (2.75) Diego Costa to be Premier League Top Scorer = 6/1 (7.00) A double at those prices = 18/1+ (19.25) The bookies actual Outright Winner/ Top Scorer double price = just 10/1 (11.00) The related contingency between a team having the top scorer and the team s chances of winning the league mean that you can t place the true double on the Top Scorer & Outright Winner. Your only option would be the bookies specially created double above as it s not a good value option. Plus, there s no Each Way element to act as a safety net. No bet. Relegation
The newly-promoted teams invariably start each season among the favourites to go back down. This season is no different with the three promoted sides Watford, Norwich and Bournemouth the three favourites in the bookies 2015/16 Relegation market. With this in mind, we ve focused our analysis on the historical record of newly-promoted teams... Key stats: 43% of the teams coming up have been relegated from the Premier League the next season In 21 of the 23 seasons at least one promoted team has been relegated from the Premier League the next season (91%). Last season two went straight back down QPR and Burnley Only twice in the 23 seasons have all 3 promoted teams stayed up (9%) Only once in the 23 seasons have all 3 promoted teams been relegated (4%) And in recent seasons... Championship runners-up have stayed up in 5 of the last 6 seasons Play-off winners have stayed up in 2 of the last 3 seasons Champions have gone straight back down in 2 of the last 3 seasons Those recent trends go against the order of the Championship league table from the previous season in other words, the team winning the division does not necessarily have the best chance of staying up in their first season in the Premier League. Overall Premier League history tells us that at least one of the newly-promoted teams will go straight back down. Let s compare those stats to this season s teams and prices (decimal odds in brackets)... Relegation betting: Watford 4/5 (1.80) Championship runner-up last season Norwich 5/4 (2.25) Championship play-off winners Bournemouth 7/5 (2.40) Championship winners Sunderland 2/1 (3.00) Leicester 3/1 (4.00) Aston Villa 3/1 (4.00) West Brom 5/1 (6.00) Newcastle 11/2 (6.50) West Ham 7/1 (8.00) Crystal Palace 8/1 (9.00) 10/1 bar If those prices are anything to go by then we re in for another close Relegation battle 10 teams (half the Premier League) at single-figure prices to go down. Our stats suggest that two of those teams in particular look too short and therefore, poor value in the Relegation betting...
West Brom were second in the league for Most Clean Sheets last season (their 16 Clean Sheets only bettered by champions Chelsea with 17). Those defensive qualities under manager Tony Pulis can keep them clear of danger this season Crystal Palace sneaked a Top 10 Finish last season and their resurgence under Alan Pardew looks set to be more than merely a one-season flash in the pan. Last season 10 of Palace s 13 Premier League wins (77%) came once Pardew took over Looking at the three newly-promoted teams... Watford are the odds-on favourites to go down at 4/5, although as last season s Championship runners-up, they do have recent history on their side with regards to their chances of staying up. That trend might just be a quirk rather than a solid betting line, but either way there s little to get excited about in backing Watford to go down at just 4/5. Norwich (5/4) and Bournemouth (7/4) are available at slightly bigger prices although recent Premier League history does not say teams that finished in their positions in the Championship stand any higher chance of survival than Watford. One of last season s promoted sides stands out on the stats at 3/1... Leicester lost 12 Away games last season (63%) only Relegated side QPR lost more Leicester lost all 5 Away games v Top 5 sides (100%), and lost 8 out of 10 Away games v Top Half sides (80%) Leicester were in the Relegation places at both the 1/3 rd (17 th place) and 2/3 rd (bottom 20 th ) stages of last season. Only turning things around with a dramatic late rally with 7 wins from the last 9 games of the season... That late run disguises what was clearly Relegation form for most of the rest of the season and with the manager behind that late rally, Nigel Pearson, now gone, odds of 3/1 for Leicester to go down this time look a little generous. The jury s out on new manager Claudio Ranieri, who starts the season as a 10/1 shot to be the first manager to leave/ get the sack. If you re looking for BIG prices in the Relegation markets then you might want to take a look at the Relegation Treble market, where combining Leicester with two of the new teams offers payout of 33/1+... Leicester/ Norwich/ Watford 33/1 Leicester/ Bournemouth/ Watford 33/1 Leicester/ Bournemouth/ Norwich 40/1 There s a case for there being some value available here, with the basic treble (the single Relegation odds for each team, multiplied) coming out at 16/1 20/1 for each treble. There s a lot of if buts and maybes to consider with trying to pick all three Relegated teams though, so any bets in those markets should only be for the smallest of stakes. I m sticking with the pre-season single on Leicester at 3/1. See Stats Picks below.
Now for a look at a couple of lesser-known markets, where the stats highlight two bets... Premier League Without the Big 6 This market asks us to find the Premier League winner with last season s Top 6 of Chelsea, Man City, Arsenal, Man Utd, Tottenham and Liverpool taken out of the equation... The top five teams in the betting are: Without the Big 6: Last season Position/ Points Southampton 9/4 (3.25) 7 th 60 pts Everton 13/5 (3.60) 11 th 47 pts Stoke 10/1 (11.00) 9 th 54 pts Swansea 10/1 (11.00) 8 th 56 pts West Ham 12/1 (13.00) 12 th 47 pts Southampton won this last season and the 2015/16 competition doesn t look particularly strong... Everton and Stoke would need to make a significant improvement of potentially 10+ pts to challenge for this. Swansea look a decent Top 10 Finish/ mid-table selection but it s hard to see more. While West Ham have a new manager in Slaven Bilic and would also need a dramatic improvement to go from last season s Bottom Half finish to the Top 7 this season. Of course we can t assume that Southampton will maintain their strong level of last season, but neither can we assume any of those other teams will improve or overtake them. Last season s stats make a strong case for Southampton: Southampton won 11 out of 19 Home games only the Top 4 of Chelsea, Man City, Arsenal and Man Utd won more Only Premier League champions Chelsea had a better overall defensive record than Southampton, who kept 15 Clean Sheets from 38 games and conceded just 33 Goals in total (averaging 0.87 Goals Against per game) Southampton won 8 out of 10 Home games v Bottom Half sides (80%) W8 D2 L0 Southampton had a great season in 2014/15 built on an excellent defensive record and a reliable win rate against lower-ranked opposition. Southampton to win the Premier League Without the Big 6 appeals this season at odds of 2/1+ (3.00). Best price 9/4 (3.25) with Stan James, Bet365, Betfred, Betway, 888 Sport. See Stats Picks below. Prem10 Picks...
Premier League 2015/16 Here s a summary of our Season Bets as outlined above... Stats Picks looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets flagged up by the stats: Dual Forecast Chelsea/ Man City @ 9/4 (3.25) with William Hill, BetVictor, Skybet, 2/1 (3.00) in general Relegation Leicester @ 3/1 (4.00) with Coral, Paddy Power, BetVictor, Betfred, Bwin, 11/4 (3.75) in general Premier League Without the Big 6 Southampton @ 9/4 (3.25) with Stan James, Bet365, Betfred, Betway, 888 Sport, 2/1 (3.00) in general Value Picks our pick of the best value prices on offer: Top Goalscorer Alexis Sanchez @ 20/1 (21.00) Each Way with Bet365, Skybet, Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Sportingbet, 16/1 (17.00) in general Top Goalscorer Christian Benteke @ 16/1 (17.00) Each Way with Bet365, Skybet, Coral, Sportingbet, 14/1 (15.00) in general Top Goalscorer Graziano Pelle @ 66/1 (67.00) Each Way with BetVictor, Sportingbet, 50/1 (51.00) in general Each Way terms: 1/4 odds 1-4 places. Note: We record all Picks to a 1 pt level stake. Each Way bets are recorded as 1 pt total each (0.5 pt Each Way). I ve outlined six bets in this report all based on a wealth of Premier League statistics & betting trends, all available at what we believe are good value prices based on the stats. Look out for your Premier League match bets from us this season using exactly the same approach: finding the top-rated bets based on the stats, to find the best moneymaking opportunities with the Stats You Need To Know and our Prem10 Picks every weekend and before every round of games. Here s to a profitable season, Best wishes, Oliver Upstone Prem10 www.prem10.co.uk