SECRET BETTING CLUB FINK TANK FREE SYSTEM GUIDE

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1 SECRET BETTING CLUB FINK TANK FREE SYSTEM GUIDE WELCOME TO THE FINK TANK FOOTBALL VALUE SYSTEM Welcome to this free download of the Fink Tank Football Value System - as devised by the Secret Betting Club and sampled from our Secret Betting System Guide. What follows is our latest update on the performance of the Fink Tank system over the past 2 years, how it works and how you can follow it. If you enjoy this system, then you will also be interested in our full Secret Betting System Guide, which is supplied free to all new Secret Betting Club members. This valuable compendium of systems, strategies and free tips is an excellent place to find profitable angles to get your betting started. Many of these strategies come from proven experts with a live demonstration of the system s profitability on our members only forum. The Secret Betting System Guide contains: Our winning 'on course for golf betting profits' strategy The easy way to profit from racing via our Horses To Follow system. Cash in while watching the TV with our Reality TV betting blue print. The football Ante post Betting Strategy that really works. How to spot when odds are odd and profit from bookie loopholes. How to massively increase your football betting profits with our draw alert system. Plus much, much more besides! If you enjoy this content and are after dedicated, independent help with your betting then please do consider a full Secret Betting Club membership. We believe so strongly in our ability to help your betting, that there is an anytime money back guarantee if not satisfied with our service for any reason. Best Regards, Peter Ling Secret Betting Club Editor Join the Secret Betting Club today All content copyright Minerva Publishing Ltd. Registered Office: Unit 34 Westminster Chambers, 7 Hunter Street, Chester, Cheshire, CH1 2HR Page 1

2 ACCESS OUR ASIAN HANDICAP FINK TANK TIPS FREE EVERY FRIDAY ON FACEBOOK Before every round of Premier League games, we will also be posting up the top Asian Handicap based Fink Tank tips. There are usually 3 to 4 for each round of Premier League fixtures, which we run through our own in-house filtering system and post up on Facebook for all to enjoy for free. You can access these by liking the Secret Betting Club on Facebook. Read more on how our Asian Handicap Fink Tank Tips work on page 8. PROFITABLE FREE FOOTBALL RATINGS THE FINK TANK VALUE SYSTEM Powerful Football Ratings: Fink Tank Service Name: Fink Tank Website: Cost: Free Fink Tank is a free football predictor that is provided by Dectech and sponsored by The Times newspaper. Fink Tank is named after Daniel Finkelstein who writes regular columns in The Times, although it was originally created by Henry Scott and Alex Morton. Since the 2010/2011 season, we have tested the Fink Tank ratings live on the SBC blog for the Premier League and on the SBC forum. In this article you ll find background details on the ratings as well as an exclusive SBC tool for using the ratings to find value bets. HOW IT ALL WORKS As a quick summary, Fink Tank use shots on target as the basis for their prediction model and weight this based on certain factors such as home bias and other factors. With goals generally at a premium in football matches, a crossbar or dodgy penalty can mean a team undeservedly losing a game. A better judge of a team s dominance and ability is apparently the ratio of shots on goal a team both has themselves and concedes to their opponents. The reason this is so is that, in almost all cases, there will be more shots on target than goals scored in any particular game. This higher incidence (of relevant action) provides you with more data by which to assess a team s true strength. The more shots a team manages to create, the more goals it is likely to score, so the theory goes. Fink Tank provide their predictions in the form of estimated probabilities for the home win, draw and away win. You can then compare this to the available odds to assess whether a particular game offers value. Page 2

3 How the Fink Tank displays its probabilities For example if the game is Bolton vs. Wigan, Fink Tank might give Bolton a 53.4% chance. Convert to decimal odds. 53.4% has an implied odds of To work this out, divide 100 by the predicted percentage. You then check the available odds for Bolton. Anything above 1.87 represents a value bet. If you can get 2.00, this is a not a bad bet. If you can get above 2.50, then you have huge value potentially. The difference between the predicted probability and the available odds gives you a measure of the % value available. 3 STEPS TO WORKING OUT THE BEST FINK TANK VALUE BETS Using the following example from the Everton - Norwich, game let me show you how to run the Fink Tank. 1. Visit the Fink Tank page: and note the percentage chances for each team for the coming fixtures. In this example, Everton have a 65.2% chance, Norwich a 14% chance and the draw a 20.8% chance 2. Convert these percentages into odds with the following simple calculation: 100 / percentage. Everton = 100/65.2 = 1.53 Norwich = 7.14 Draw = ) Visit our favourite odds comparison site: and compare these odds with what the bookmakers are offering. If the odds on offer are greater than the odds from point 2) then you have a value bet. The greater the difference, the greater the value bet! For this game, the best odds on offer are as follows: Everton to win with Bet Victor. No value as the same as above (1.53) Draw with Pinnacle Sports. No value (actually -0.13) from the 4.80 needed above Page 3

4 Norwich with Totesport. Big value with a pt increase from the 7.14 listed above In this example, the value lies with Norwich who the Fink Tank rate as 7.14, yet we can back at 8.00 with Totesport. Repeat this simple exercise for each game to find out where the value lies! TESTING THE FINK TANK We tested the Fink Tank on the Premier League only, using the best odds available according to OddsPortal.com usually on a Friday early afternoon. We caught most games, with the exception of some midweek fixtures. Allowances were made for the quality of the bookmaker so odds were never logged from Boylesports or Betfred, for example. The vast majority of bets were placed with Pinnacle sports, an excellent bookmaker who do not restrict winning punters. All bets were logged regardless of the size of the value on offer. E.g. it didn t matter if there was 1% value on a home bet or 50% value on an away bet, if the odds were slightly better than they should be for a home or away bet, that bet was logged. 2010/2011 Premier League results: The Fink Tank ratings had an excellent season in 2010/11. The following table is based on results betting 1pt level stakes whenever there was value according to the predicted outcome and available odds. This made no account of the size of the value. Bets Profit ROI All bets % Homes % Aways % As good as these results appear, it certainly wasn t a smooth ride with the profits coming in fits and starts, usually as big winners were landed. Page 4

5 2011/2012 Premier League results: The 2011/12 Premier league season was not as consistent for the Fink Tank system, with periods of treading water, followed by weekends where massive winners were landed and finishing with a dreadful run in the last few weeks. The chart below shows the season s ups and downs: The positive highlights were: Villa to beat Chelsea away at Blackburn to beat Man U away at 21.0 Sunderland to beat Man City at home at 7.0 Fulham to beat Arsenal at 4.33 Bolton to beat Everton away at 7.5 Newcastle to beat Man U at home at 5.5 Things could have been better depending how certain bets were treated. For the Man U Blackburn game, the ratings signaled value in the draw in addition to the Blackburn away win. For simplicity a Double Chance bet of Blackburn/ draw was picked out at odds of 6.0 when in reality the draw was only small value so a Draw no bet or straight Blackburn away win might have been better. By contrast, a straight Blackburn win was available at odds of around 21.0! Here s the home & away comparison: Bets Profit ROI All bets % Homes % Aways % Interestingly, the returns so far mirror the first half of last season where the away bets stormed away and the home bets lagged. The reverse happened during the second half of the season. The results so far can be attributed to one or two big results, which is again what happened last season. Page 5

6 2011/2012 Championship results: For the first time in 2011/2012, we tracked the Championship bets in addition to the Premier League. Similar to the Premier League in 2011/2012, the Championship had an inconsistent season. There were some alarming losing runs and some cracking winning sequences. Home vs Away Bets Profit ROI All bets % Homes % Aways % It s interesting to note the variance in returns between the home bets and the away bets for the different leagues and periods. However, before we read too much into this, we have to point out that any such differences are inconsistent. Up until half way into 2010/2011 season, you might have been tempted to just stick with the away bets, with the home bets going absolutely nowhere. However, just as the homes peaked, so the aways troughed. It shows how luck can still play a huge role in a sequence of results even over 150 bets. Had you dropped the home bets half way into the season you would have certainly regretted it. Page 6

7 BIG ODDS, BIG SWINGS One feature of Fink Tanks EPL results in previous seasons the number of big priced winners it found. There were a number of away shocks last season with Fink Tank being on the right side of them more often than not. Notable highlights included West Brom to beat Arsenal away at 17.50, Newcastle to beat Arsenal away at 13.04, Wigan to beat Spurs away at and Wolves to beat Liverpool away at These four bets alone account for the bulk of the profits made over the season! Generally the bigger odds tended to also be the better value picks. Similar to other football services, bets with odds under 2.0 did poorly. Of the 67 bets under 2.0, a return of -2.0 points was made. Not all strong value picks (over 10%) were above 5.0, but a lot of them were. It would be too easy to say that you should stick to big priced bets only, but this would have hurt your returns in the 2011/2012 season. For this last season, the trends reversed and it was the low odds/ small value bets where the profits were found. If there s one lesson we ve learned following the ratings in recent seasons, it s that you cannot ignore a bet because it seems like too much of a long shot and at the same time, you can t ignore a bet because the odds are too short. BEWARE OF EARLY AND LATE SEASON FORM On logical filter you may wish to apply to the Fink Tank ratings is being wary of early and late season form. In the first few weeks of the season, the ratings are using last season s data, which doesn t take into account the impact of new managers or new players. The last week of the season can also be a minefield with some teams fighting tooth and nail for their survival, while others are stuck mid table. We would suggest you be cautious with early and late season form, with the ratings probably only really kicking into gear come the start of October. The table below shows the combined returns from the Premier League and Championship since 2010 (Championship 2011 only). The data shows you the returns had you backed games vs. only betting from October and not in the last week of the season. Page 7

8 Bets Profit ROI All bets % Time filtered % This doesn t dramatically increase returns, but it does mean you miss out on some potentially unpredictable early or late season results to improve your profit on turnover. SBC TIP: USE THE FINK TANK FOR ASIAN HANDICAP BETTING Due to the fact the Fink Tank often picks out large priced bets as the best 'value' - often as big as 10/1 and higher, this does mean that your patience can be tested in waiting for the big wins to come in. One of our suggestions is to use the Fink Tank value bets with the Asian Handicap betting market, which can help to level out each bet and streamline the volatility in following. Take for example the recent fixture between Man Utd and QPR. Man Utd are 1.22 to win QPR are to win. In this instance, the Fink Tank system might pick out QPR as a value bet, which isnt to say they think that QPR will certainly win, but that their odds of are too big in relation to their chances. You will have seen in our above explanation just how well the Fink Tank does in picking out a few of these 'shock' wins each year, but the problem with this approach is that you do have to be very patient and also place each and every bet! You can guarantee that the week you miss out on the Fink Tank, will be the week it picks up a big priced winner... Here is how it will work if we use Asian Handicaps which, in this particular game, are offered as followed by the bookies: Man Utd -2 Asian Handicap at 1.91 QPR +2 Asian Handicap at 2.02 The +2 Asian Handicap effectively gives QPR a 2 goal headstart and Man Utd a 2 goal deficit at the start of the game. Do you think that Man Utd will win by 3 or more? Then back them to overcome a 2 goal deficit Do you think that QPR will lose by a maximum of 1 goal, or even win or draw? Then back them with a headstart of 2 goals. If the game were to finish with Man Utd winning by 2 clear goals (e.g. 2-0, 3-1) then your stake would be returned and no money is won or lost. Of course, in this instance, we don't benefit if QPR win at but we do level out the playing field and become less reliant on 'big shocks' for our profits! We enjoy this method and you can follow our Fink Tank Asian Handicap Tips on Facebook for free each week! Page 8

9 CONCLUSIONS Were Fink Tank a tipping services, it would certainly be recommended at the very least. As free resources go, the ratings have to be one of the best available. The fact that 2012 is also showing a profit so far is testament to the power of the ratings and adds more evidence to them being a highly useful tool for your football betting. Overall though we firmly believe that the Fink Tank ratings are a useful tool to have on your side whether you follow them blindly or use them to inform your own betting. GET EACH FINK TANK TIP FOR FREE THIS SEASON! For the 2012/13 Football Season we are offering all active Secret Betting Club member's the chance to receive the Fink Tank tips for each round of Premier League fixtures for free via . On offer exclusively to SBC members only. Click here to sign-up today and once joined, look for our 'Free Fink Tank Football Tips' members link. Page 9

10 WHAT IS THE SECRET BETTING CLUB & HOW CAN WE HELP YOU? Established in May 2006, the Secret Betting Club is a 100% independent source for reporting, reviewing and monitoring the world of betting advice, through the use of tipsters, systems and strategies. We can point you in the direction of the best tipsters, systems and methods for making money betting. We do this via our: SBC Magazines Published monthly they feature our independent tipster reviews, howto guides, expert interviews and free systems and strategies for you to follow. SBC Tipster Profit Reports Published 6 times a year, these unique reports contain our latest tipster ratings, including Hall of Fame and at a glance comparative league tables on over 45 different tipsters. Free access to our 3-part Ultimate Betting Package, consisting of the The Secret List of Award Winning Horse Racing, Football & Sport Tipsters 2. The Secret Betting System Guide (Including 3 profitable betting systems for Racing, Football & Golf) 3. The Professional Gambler Blueprint Access to our dynamic forum rammed full of advice, free strategies and systems devised by some of our very shrewd members. Entry to the SBC Discount Club, providing you exclusive saving deals for many top tipsters that you just won t find anywhere else. Before you join any tipster check with us first to save money! Access to our outstanding six and a half year back catalogue full of our past reviews, features and profitable betting advice. And much more besides, certainly too much to list here. The great news is that all of this currently available for the equivalent of just 1.32 per week and with a full money back guarantee if not in any way satisfied once you joined. Page 10

11 DISCLAIMER & COPYRIGHT NOTICE The views expressed within this article are based on the authors experience alone. Any money used within the services mentioned is done so at the risk of the individual. The Secret Betting Club is for information & education purposes only and does not represent financial advice. There is a risk of loss in betting. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is our intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, we cannot be held responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgment whatsoever. Literary copyright for this document and all the articles herein are held by Minerva Publishing Limited. You are free to print this document for their own use, but may not share its content with others without our express permission. Any person found to have made the contents of this publication or the entire publication itself available to other people in person or via the internet without express permission may be subject to legal action. Page 11