Paul Ruffy 2015 Matchdayprofits.com

Transcription

1 Paul Ruffy 2015 Matchdayprofits.com No reproduction or distribution of this report is permitted without the prior consent of the author. Cautionary Note: You are solely responsible for any money that you bet, win or lose. See gambleaware.co.uk for facts about gambling.

2 Welcome Dear Reader, My name is Paul Ruffy and I d like to welcome you to my Best Bets guide for the 2015/16 football season. In this guide I ve taken a look at the most hotly contested competitions of the new season (plus the League Cup!) and picked out the very best value ante post plays based on summer signings, key statistics and of course good old fashioned form study. Time and time again ante post betting throws up excellent value propositions, particularly in the world of football where the bookmakers have a pretty tight grip on the day to day win markets but tend to make more ricks when it comes to long term investments. In this guide I ve highlighted some of those ricks for you to exploit in addition to some more general snippets of useful information such as my European Bankers page which takes a look at those bets that come in time and time again perfect weekend accumulator material if you ask me! I hope you enjoy this guide and if you have any questions about the contents do feel free to drop me an at [email protected]. Otherwise sit back, relax and prepare to profit. Best Wishes, 2

3 Premier League Last season was something of a damp squib at both ends of the table when it came to entertainment from The Most Entertaining League In The World, with one relegation spot the only interesting position to go down to the wire. On the plus side, that sort of predictability does make it much easier to select winning bets and so it shouldn t depress you too much when I say I m expecting a not too dissimilar season this time around. Stat s Mental! Last season Chelsea set a new record by spending a phenomenal 274 days at the top of the table. They were top or joint top from the moment their first match ended. Three To Follow Chelsea: Last season they won the league at a relative canter and with Jose Mourinho in charge this Chelsea side is only going to get better. Given last term s performance that s a pretty scary thought Chelsea topped the league virtually from the word go and nobody was able to budge them. They were the only team in the division to avoid defeat at home. They conceded the fewest goals. They had the best home record. They had the best away record. They didn t lose a single game against a fellow member of the top four. With both of their realistic title challengers still having plenty of questions to answer, the Blues could be in for a pretty special season. Chelsea to remain unbeaten is 100/1 with bet365. Given the way they started last season, that s likely to become tradeable at the very least. 3

4 Callum Wilson and Troy Deeney: There s a fine history of promoted Championship strikers taking the top flight by storm, with Charlie Austin last season adding his name to a long list which includes the likes of Rickie Lambert, DJ Campbell and, for old time s sake, Marcus Stewart. There s one almost every season and so you could do a lot worse than have a few quid eachway on Callum Wilson and Troy Deeney in the Golden Boot market at odds of 80/1. Last season they top scored for Championship top scorers Bournemouth and Watford respectively and with both sides playing free flowing football and investing in their squads this summer I would expect at least one of them to take the league by storm. Crystal Palace: What a difference six months makes. Back in December Crystal Palace had Neil Warnock in charge and were hovering around the relegation zone. Fast forward to June and, having secured a top ten finish, they d only gone and signed Yohan Cabaye, not too long ago poached from Newcastle by mega bucks PSG! The question is whether manager Alan Pardew can build on his early success and while he has been known to fall away at previous clubs, I feel like there s still plenty of life in this particular enterprise. In addition to Cabaye, Palace have also been linked with excellent Swansea centre back Ashley Williams and if they manage to bring him or an equivalent in, I expect them to have another fine season. Odds of 2/1 on another top 10 finish look too big to me. Three To Avoid Manuel Pellegrini: I m sure I wasn t the only one who was amazed to see the Chilean retain his job after the meek capitulation (in all four competitions it could be argued) of The players just don t seem especially motivated by the Engineer and when things go wrong they have a tendency to sulk. Pellegrini must surely be on his last chance and with Chelsea liable to get off to a flyer, he could be a spot of value in the Next Manager To Leave market at 10/1 with Ladbrokes. Manchester United: Big name signings, some impressive results in pre season and a whole lot of talking up of their chances by the mainstream media Haven t we been here before? Last summer it was Angel Di Maria and Radamel Falcao that were going to propel United back to title glory and, while this season s new signings are unlikely to be quite so floppy, there still remain a number of question marks over the squad. 4

5 Central midfield in particular was a problem area last season and while Morgan Schneiderlin looks a good signing, Bastian Schweinsteiger may struggle to adjust away from home at the first time at the age of 30. With Robin Van Persie saying his goodbyes this summer, Louis Van Gaal is also putting a lot of faith in new signing Memphis Depay hitting the ground running. While they should remain tough to dislodge from a top four berth it s by no means unthinkable that they may not qualify for the Champions League and it s certainly a lot more likely than a serious title challenge. Sunderland: Oh Dick, what have you done?! Back in May Dick Advocaat had retired a Sunderland hero, keeping the Mackems up in his final managerial role in football. A few days later and he d been convinced to go back you should never go back Dick, everybody knows that The fact is that this Sunderland team has been on the wane for a while now and it s only been the short term impact of Messrs Di Canio, Poyet and Advocaat that have kept them in the top flight. Can you spot the key phrase in that last sentence? It s short term. Both Di Canio and Poyet endured miserable second seasons and at 67 years of age and with no significant investment in the squad over the summer (Coates looks a decent signing but he was already at the club on loan) I see no reason whatsoever why Advocaat will buck the trend. It s not even as if his miracle survival was all that. Sunderland only actually picked up 12 points from nine games after the Dutchman took charge in March and so even if he somehow manages to sustain that performance they ll still spend a lot of time looking over their shoulders. I think they ll do worse than that though and like the look of the 9/4 on a long overdue Sunderland relegation. 5

6 Best Bet Look, I know it s boring and I know it s not a fancy price but I simply cannot look past Chelsea winning this year s Premier League title. This is not only a Jose Mourinho team, this is a finely tuned Jose Mourinho team and that generally means only one thing: trophies. The Portugeezer already has a bit of a Fergie Fear Factor over the top sides and with his main rivals either too far behind (United/Liverpool) or not improving their squads significantly (Arsenal/City), I can t see any reason why that would suddenly change. Premier League Title Chelsea Two Points 13/8 with Sky Bet or Paddy Power FA Cup Whisper it quietly but the FA Cup does slowly appear to be resurrecting some of that fabled romance. Last season saw some of the most amusing shocks in modern times and they were further aided by the fallen giants in question fielding near full strength sides. There s no fun, after all, in plucky Middlesbrough seeing off Manchester City s Under 13 s. Those two elements make it perhaps the most difficult competition to call in this guide but we ll have a crack anyway and who knows, we may even end up siding with this season s Bradford City. Stat s Mental! While the FA Cup is rightfully commended for its history of shock results there is very rarely a shock winner. In fact, apart from Portsmouth in 2008, all of the last 20 editions have gone to one of Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester United, Manchester City or Chelsea. 6

7 One To Follow Bradford City: What better way to side with this season s Bradford City than by siding with Bradford City?! For a League One (and prior to that League Two) team, Bradford City s record in recent Cup competitions has been remarkable. Last season they made the third round of the League Cup beating Leeds en route and the quarter finals of the FA Cup beating Sunderland and of course Chelsea en route, while back in 2012/13 they quite inexplicably made the League Cup final, beating the likes of Arsenal en route. While they may well get a tough draw and go out early this season, it is pretty obvious that their manager, Phil Parkinson, takes the domestic cup competitions seriously and, with plenty of player and supporter belief to boot, they re well worth following once again. One To Avoid QPR: At the other end of the spectrum are QPR. Poor, broken QPR. Since 2001 the R s have won two FA Cup games. Yes, you read that right two. Depending on who they draw in the third round this season they may well be worth opposing but whatever you do, don t back them. Best Bet No team has won the FA Cup three seasons in a row since 1886 and so with that possibility facing Arsene Wenger and Arsenal this season you can be damn sure that they won t be taking it lightly. The draw will, as always, play a large part in the destination of the trophy this season but at 9/1 I think you d be mad not to have a bet on the Gunners they re half that price to win the Premier League! FA Cup Arsenal 1 point 9/1 with Bet Victor 7

8 League Cup The domestic competition everybody loves to hate is actually one of my favourites with all too predictable upsets (see below) and fantastically entertaining matches as teams cut loose and throw caution to the wind (see both legs of the Liverpool vs. Chelsea semi final last season) what s not to like?! Stat s Mental! Last season only six out of 13 Premier League teams won their second round matches in normal time. One (West Brom) went through on penalties while the other six were all knocked out by lower league opposition. One To Follow Liverpool: Liverpool s record in most competitions is up there with the best of them but, unlike some of the more prestigious events, the Reds have remained extremely potent in the League Cup over the last 20 years, winning it four times since 1995, finishing runners up once and making a number of semi finals including last season where they were narrowly beaten by Chelsea. Although it can be a bit of a lottery picking the winner of this particular competition, you d have done pretty well simply backing the Reds to win it in each of the last 20 seasons and at odds of 10/1 that may not be a bad tactic once again. One To Avoid Newly promoted Premier League sides in second round action: It s no secret that teams near the bottom of the Premier League table have developed a habit of not taking the domestic cup competitions too seriously (bar the occasional Wigan shaped exception) but what it may surprise you to know is just how abysmal the record of newly promoted sides in the League Cup second round (the point of entry for Premier League teams) is. Last season Burnley, Leicester and QPR all lost to lower league opposition (Sheffield Wednesday, Shrewsbury and Burton) and that certainly wasn t a one off occurrence with other recent examples including Crystal Palace going down to Bristol City in 2013/14. 8

9 While I ve stuck this in the To Avoid section it can actually be a great source of profit if you re looking for a second round upset this season, look no further. Best Bet It s difficult to have a best bet in a competition such as this but I do think Liverpool are worth half a point and you should also keep an eye on those Cup specialists Bradford City in the early rounds. League Cup Liverpool ½ point 10/1 available generally 9

10 Champions League The crème de la crème of European football will once again do battle in UEFA s premier club competition/cash cow and the great thing about this tournament from our point of view is that it s oh so reliable. The whole event is designed to aid the big guns and shock results really are few and far between. If you re the type that likes an accumulator then backing favourites in the group stages is a pretty decent way to go. Sure, short odds and value may seem like unusual bedfellows but it all depends on the contest if this year s Derby winner was up against a seaside donkey then odds of 2/9 would be super value, so why turn your nose up at a similar price when Barcelona welcome the champions of Belarus to the Nou Camp. Stat s Mental! Last season was the first time since 2007 that a player other than Cristiano Ronaldo or Lionel Messi earned a share of the top scorer prize. That player was Neymar who shared it with Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi. Three To Follow Barcelona: First, a word of caution no team has ever retained the Champions League in the modern era (the last side to do so was AC Milan in 1990). Now, the case for the defence no modern Champions League winner has looked in a better place to re write those history books. This is a side that got better and better as last season went on (they failed to win on just four occasions from January 5 th onwards and one of those was a second leg against Bayern Munich that made no difference to the result of the tie) and with a relatively stable squad and management structure they can be expected to continue to improve this season. In contrast, their realistic rivals are either going through transitional periods or have simply shown nothing to suggest that they can reverse the form from last season Real Madrid have a new manager in place and while I m actually a fan of the divisive Rafa Benitez, he has his work cut out with Ronaldo now 30 and Bale currently far from filling those sizeable boots (in the minds of Real s fans at least). Bayern Munich were 10

11 comprehensively outclassed by Barca last year meanwhile and there have even been a few murmurings about the future of the previously god like Pep Guardiola. As for the best of the rest, PSG are another with an ageing talisman and may need more than a rejuvenated Angel Di Maria to bridge the gap, Juventus are more likely to lose key players than gain them and Chelsea, while dominant domestically, still look at least one top striker short of challenging Europe s elite. Barcelona to win this season s tournament is a best price 10/3 with Coral and that certainly isn t the worst bet in the world. APOEL: Now granted this one s a little left field but the Cypriot champions APOEL could actually provide the best value of all the teams in this year s tournament provided they get through the final qualifying rounds (they re 2 1 up with the home leg of the third round to come as I type). They ve qualified for the group stages in two of the last four seasons and while that in itself would be a triumph for many smaller teams, the well organised APOEL have also pulled off some serious coups in the tournament proper. 2011/12 was undoubtedly the highlight as they reached the quarter finals, knocking out Lyon in the second round and losing just once in the group stage but they also put in some fine showings in a group of death last season, drawing at home to Ajax and losing by a single goal away to Barcelona and both home and away to PSG. If you re now asking what use a one goal defeat is, take a look at the handicap odds the next time a team like APOEL play at the Nou Camp there will be some very juicy odds on offer! Favourites: It should be pointed out however that APOEL are very much the exception to the rule and for the most part the Champions League is a favourite bettor s dream. Last season s group stage results bear this out beautifully. Between them, Porto, Chelsea, Barcelona, Paris St Germain, Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid lost five matches four of those defeats were to other teams on that list and the fifth was Bayern Munich away to Manchester City. Three To Avoid Manchester City: You d think a club who enjoyed one of their greatest nights in a Second Division play off final against Gillingham would appreciate the glitz and glamour of the 11

12 Champions League but their performances in the competition and the attendance levels from the otherwise excellent fans suggest that they re just not that bothered. Since first appearing in the competition in 2012 they have been knocked out in the group stage once and the second round twice, losing both home and away in each of those second round ties. With Manuel Pellegrini still in charge and the promising but still raw Raheem Sterling the only really significant piece of summer transfer business I d be amazed if that poor record improves this season. It s difficult to advise any specific bets until the draw is made but at the very least I ll be looking to oppose them topping their group. Olympiakos on their travels: The perennial Greek champions could quite easily be both a team to follow and a team to avoid, with the difference between their home and away form in the Champions League quite remarkable. At home in the last four seasons they ve won 10 out of 13 matches. On their travels that record becomes nine defeats, one draw and three wins. The advice here is simple feel free to back them at home but steer well clear when the Greeks head abroad. Arsenal: Arsenal must be such a frustrating team to support they do just enough to give their fans hope but always seem to fall short at the crucial moment. Their recent Champions League campaigns have been a prime example of that, with the Gunners finishing second in their group in all of the last five seasons. While that obviously isn t a death sentence in itself, it has tended to lead to a second round match against the likes of Bayern Munich, which has subsequently led to a second round exit. The moral of the story here is don t back Arsenal to win their group. Find the most realistic challenger and back them instead! 12

13 Best Bet With Barcelona likely to progress deep in the tournament once again I very much like the look of last season s joint top scorer Neymar to repeat the feat (preferably minus the joint ). As already hinted at, Ronaldo isn t getting any younger and neither is Messi (that s how ageing works you see) and so with Neymar improving all the time, I would expect him to place at the very least. Champions League Top Scorer Neymar ½ point each way 10Bet are the only bookmaker to price up at the moment but an price around their offer of 8/1 would be worth taking Europa League The Champions League s ugly sister, the Europa League, like the League Cup, is all about one thing working out which teams are in it to win it and which would rather be sat at home watching EastEnders in a dreary North East town, than actually try to give their fans something to shout about (heaven forbid!) Separate the two early enough and you ll be well on the way to a European adventure which pays for itself. Stat s Mental! The Europa League (and prior to that the UEFA Cup) has only ever been successfully defended by two teams. Real Madrid managed it in 1986 and Sevilla in both 2007 and One To Follow Champions League group stage rejects: One of the most controversial elements of the Europa League is the ruling that allows Champions League teams to drop into the competition if they re knocked out in the latter rounds of qualifying or finish third in the group stage. 13

14 Many people feel that it devalues the competition but regardless of the footballing rights and wrongs it can provide some decent fodder for us value hunters. You see, in recent years, the records of these teams after dropping into the Europa League is significant. In 2008/09 and 2012/13 both of the finalists finished third in their Champions League groups, as did the winner in 2009/10 and 2004/05. In fact, it s only really Sevilla that have broken up this monopoly since 2004/05 every tournament bar two has been won by Champions League reject or Sevilla. One To Avoid Champions League qualifying round rejects: While those Champions League sides exiting at the group stage have a good record, those exiting in qualifying (both the final and penultimate round) haven t fared quite so well. With not a single winner among them and just two finalists they re a set of teams best avoided. Best Bet While English clubs tend to turn their noses up at the competition the same certainly cannot be said for Italian sides and last season saw five of them reach the last 16 (only one of whom had been knocked out of the Champions League group stage). A Champions League qualifying spot for the winners will do little to change that appetite for this particular trophy and, as such, I rather like the look of last season s semi finalists Napoli at a best price 16/1. At the same odds as Tottenham and Liverpool two teams likely to field weakened sides throughout it s clear where the value lies. Europa League Napoli ½ point 16/1 available generally 14

15 European Bankers In this final section of my Best Bets guide I ve compiled some of the most potent banker stats from last season. While past performance is obviously no guarantee of future success, the same things do tend to happen time and time again and so if you are one to indulge in accumulators or even just lumpy bets at short prices (these CAN sometimes offer value remember) then you could do much worse than make a note of these 10 European Bankers. 1) The top three in last season s Premier League (Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal) didn t lose a single home match to a bottom half side. Chelsea won nine and drew one, while Man City and Arsenal both won eight and drew two. 2) Home advantage shone brightest in the Greek Super League where a whopping 53.59% of matches finished in home wins. The next highest percentage for a major European league was France s Ligue 1 with 47.63%. 3) Following on from that, Greece s biggest side, Olympiakos, have failed to win just three home matches in the last two seasons at a winning strike rate of 91.2%. 4) Germany has traditionally been seen as the league of high scoring matches but their over 2.5 goals strike rate of 51.31% was dwarfed by the Dutch Eredivisie which came in at 58.5%. Close behind was the ever competitive English Championship which registered 58.33%. 5) You won t get rich very quickly backing Barcelona to win at home in the league but this might speed things up a bit Last season Barcelona won 14 out of 19 of their home league matches by more than one goal. They only won by a single goal on two occasions (one of which was against Real Madrid), so if you re going to back them for the win, you d be better off taking the 1 handicap. 6) Real Madrid went one better with that particular approach, winning 15 out of their 19 home league matches by more than one goal. Cristiano Ronaldo s merry men won by a single goal on just one occasion. 7) I ve already spoken about the Champions League group stages being prime banker material earlier on in the guide and last season the big three of Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid won 16 of their 18 group stage matches. That s useful in its own right but it becomes even more notable when you look at the two matches they 15

16 failed to win Barcelona away to PSG and Bayern Munich away to Man City clearly neither of those matches would ever be classed as bankers! 8) Speaking of PSG, they re becoming another of Europe s heavyweights and with the club continuing to spend big that s unlikely to change anytime soon. Their 3 1 defeat to Barcelona in the quarter finals of last season s Champions League was the first time they have been defeated at home in European competition in an incredible 33 matches. 9) Traditionally Italy has been seen as a competitive league but the struggles of both Milan sides in recent years have paved the way for Juventus domination. This has been particularly notable in home matches and the Old Lady are unbeaten on their own patch since way back in January Since then they ve drawn five and won 42 at a winning strike rate of 89.4%. 10) Last but certainly not least, if you re looking for a league where the big guns really dominate then look no further than Portugal (Scotland, your time is up) where last season Sporting Lisbon lost just two matches home or away and yet only finished 3 rd! Between them, Sporting Lisbon, Porto and champions Benfica lost just a single home match all season. The match in question Porto at home to Benfica. More to come Hopefully this ante post guide will help you pick up some profits this season, and if you liked this please look out for my upcoming messages from Matchdayprofits.com. Best Regards Paul Ruffy Matchdayprofits.com 16