HOW TO BET ON FOOTBALL. Gambling can be addictive. Please play responsibly.

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1 HOW TO BET ON FOOTBALL Gambling can be addictive. Please play responsibly.

2 Football is available to trade just about all year round, with European clubs playing from August to May and then various other leagues in America (MLS), South America and Scandinavia covering the May to August gap. INTRODUCTION As well as the domestic programme there are also major international tournaments involving European teams with the World Cup and European Championships taking place every four years. Add to this African nations and Copa America tournaments and you have a steady stream of football trading opportunities. Football is very much a worldwide sport which is managed and controlled by the International Federation of Association Football also known as FIFA. 2

3 The World Cup is the sport s biggest tournament. Qualifiers take place over two years for countries to win a place in the finals, which are held every four years and last around one month. The European Championships also take place every four years. Again teams need to qualify for the finals. MAJOR TOURNAMENTS The African Nations Tournament runs approximately every two years and tends to take place in February or March. This means African players at European clubs often have to be released at a key stage in the season. The South American championship, or Copa America, which normally includes Mexico and USA, used to be every four years but dates have become irregular now. However, tournaments are normally planned years in advance so that all countries and players are aware of their schedules. For domestic clubs in Europe the highest level competition is the Champions League. It s contested by all the top clubs in Europe, initially as a group competition but then knockout games over two legs before a one off final in May. A level down from the Champions League is the Europa League. This is for the teams who just failed to reach the level required in the respective leagues for Champions League qualification. Again the games are played in groups before knockouts and a final. In order to qualify for these European competitions, clubs must perform well in their domestic leagues. An example of some of the top European leagues are shown here. All these competitions are shown extensively on TV. 3

4 The most popular markets in Football are: MOST POPULAR MARKETS Overall League markets League winner where you predict the overall winner of the league Top 4 will your selection be in the top four teams? Top Goalscorer will your selected player outscore any other player in the league? Relegation will your selection be relegated at the end of the season? Individual match markets Match odds where you select home win/away win or draw as the outcome of the game Correct Score making a prediction on the final result of the game Over and Under a popular market where people predict the number of goals in the game First Goalscorer selecting the first player to score in the game Half Time/Full Time a prediction on the two periods of the game : half time (home/ away or draw) AND full time (home/away or draw) Asian Handicap - the Asian handicap market is intended to level the playing field in terms of odds. For example the market may decide that team A is 1 goal better than team B and so will make team A minus 1 goals to even money and team B +1 goal also close to evens. There are many more markets to choose from on Betfair. 4

5 Due to the large amounts of money wagered on these events, Betfair football markets are very competitive. Knowing how they move is critical to trading them. WHERE TO START You can t do enough research and analysis. You need to know the strengths and weaknesses of the teams, their style of play and their characteristics. If you re betting before the kick off, then team announcements are normally the main source of markets moving. If key players who were expecting to be starting are no longer in the line up then the market will adjust accordingly. When the games are in-play, the main reasons for the market moving are time decay and goals. Whether you want to use a strategy, or simply back and lay odds movements, the success or failure of your trades will be majorly dependent on these two elements. While there are no goals, the odds of the two teams should slowly increase, to compensate and bring the odds back to around 100% the odds of the draw will decrease. After a goal is scored, the odds of the scoring team decrease while the odds of the draw and the losing team increase. The exception to this is when the underdog of the two teams scores first, the draw odds may stay quite static while the odds of the losing team increase. The odds of the scoring team (the less fancied of the two teams) will decrease, but initially, will not shorten nearly as much as they would had the favourite team scored first. This is because the market expects the favourite team to equalise and possibly go on to win the game (depending on when the underdog takes the lead), therefore there is less movement in the draw odds, and the odds of the original underdog team do not shorten immediately to any great degree (unless we are late into the second half of the game). Towards the end of a game, everything happens much quicker. The odds of the leading team, or if it is a draw, the odds of the draw, start to shorten dramatically as the final whistle approaches, while the odds of the other two possible outcomes increase dramatically. 5

6 Don t just take the price on offer in match odds, there are so many other markets where you can back your judgment. For example: If you think a team will win the game but it will be low scoring, then you ll get a much better price for backing 1-0 and 2-0 in the correct score market than just backing the team to win in the match odds market. TRADING STRATEGIES Of course that comes at the risk of your selection winning by a scoreline greater than 2.5 goals. So look to take out some insurance against your initial bets. If you are looking for a low scoring win in the correct score market then you could back over 2.5 goals to save your stake. If you think there are goals in the game then just get some cover on under 2.5. In football there are many games that have been turned around very quickly and unexpectedly. Goals change games...quickly. Don t ever think the game is over until the final whistle. There are many times a result has been overturned at 1.01 and plenty of winners have traded in the high hundreds. If your strategy was built around an early goal or a certain player has been sent off... then don t forget you can cash out or close your bet. There are many football matches happening all over the world so don t risk anymore than you have to. If things don t look good then close your position. Not losing is far more important than not winning! There are many markets on Betfair where there are gaps in the prices... never be afraid to ask for a price in these markets. Especially if your research has identified a big advantage to one team over another. NEVER overstake - it makes you view the game differently and makes you do things you wouldn t normally do, always play at levels you are comfortable with. 6

7 Scalping the market is backing a falling market and then getting out of it one tick lower. Because of time decay we know which way certain markets will move. We can use this to our advantage and we can scalp the market. TRADING STRATEGIES For example: If a 0-0 scoreline is 16.5 at kick off it won t take long to drop to So backing at 16.5 for 10 would give you 155 profit, laying that off at 16 would lose you 150. Giving you a net win of 5 doing this two or three times early in the game could see you with a 10 or 15 profit on 0-0 for no risk. The longer you are in the market the more risk you are taking, the idea is to get in and out as quickly as possible. It doesn t have to be 0-0 of course, it could be the half time markets, match odds, under 2.5 goals market any of them as long as we know the way these markets will move over time (without a goal coming). The danger of course is that you get caught scalping and if it s on the correct score then you ll have lost your stake! 7