UEFA Champions League

Transcription

1 UEFA Champions League Season Bets Report 2015/16

2 Welcome to your Champions League Season Bets 2015/16 report... Containing Outright Winner, Top Scorer and Group Winner bets & advice. All based on 10 years of Champions League trends and the very latest stats and team & player information... For each market we re looking at: 1. What do the stats tell us? 2. What are the 2015/16 prices? 3. Which bets standout at the prices available? Of course, the stats don t tell the whole story. Managers, new owners... player transfers, injuries... will of course all play a part in deciding the 2015/16 Champions League champion... top scorer... and Group Winners. But when it comes to identifying the best bets and the best value prices I firmly believe that using the stats below will give you the best possible starting point. Here are our 2015/16 Stats You Need To Know and Champions League Picks for the big season-long markets Outright Winner and Top Scorer, along with the Group Winner betting. The stats you need to know... Champions League 2015/16 Outright Winner Let s start with a look at the history books. Here are the Champions League winners and runners-up (and nationalities) from the last 10 seasons... Season Winner (Nationality) Runner-up (Nationality) 2014/15 Barcelona (Spain) Juventus (Italy) 2013/14 Real Madrid (Spain) Atletico Madrid (Spain) 2012/13 Bayern Munich (Germany) Borussia Dortmund (Germany) 2011/12 Chelsea (England) Bayern Munich (Germany) 2010/11 Barcelona (Spain) Man Utd (England) 2009/10 Inter Milan (Italy) Bayern Munich (Germany) 2008/09 Barcelona (Spain) Man Utd (England) 2007/08 Man Utd (England) Chelsea (England) 2006/07 AC Milan (Italy) Liverpool (England) 2005/06 Barcelona (Spain) Arsenal (England) Key stats from that 10-year history: Spanish clubs have won 5 of the last 10. With Barcelona accounting for 4 of those titles

3 English clubs have featured 7 times in the last 10 finals although just 2 in the last 5 and none in the last 3 seasons The 20 finalists in the last 10 years all came from just 4 nations Spain (6), England (7), Germany (4) and Italy (3) 12 different clubs have featured in the last 10 finals. With 7 different winners No club has ever won the Champions League in consecutive seasons Digging a little deeper, the 10-year form shows that a club doesn t necessarily need to be the reigning champion of their domestic league to then go on and win the Champions League the following season. In fact, more often than not in the last 10 season, the Champions League winner was not the current champion of their home league... Just 7 of the 20 Champions League finalists listed above had won their domestic league in the previous season None of the last 4 Champions League winners Barcelona, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Chelsea had won their respective domestic league titles in the season prior to lifting the Champions League trophy Just 3 of the last 10 runners-up were reigning champions of their domestic leagues Looking to individual team performance now, and the Historical Match Winner Stats on our Champions League Bet website show that the following teams have the highest Champions League match win rates over the last three seasons... This data refers to Normal Time (90 Minute) match wins only, Home and Away combined (with Finals, played in neutral grounds, excluded). Only listing clubs that have featured in each of the last three Champions League seasons: Team Played Won Win Rate % Real Madrid % Bayern Munich % Barcelona % PSG % Arsenal % Chelsea % Porto % Olympiakos % Juventus % Benfica % Shakhtar Donetsk % Man City % Zenit % Galatasaray % Of course, a team doesn t necessarily need to win the highest number of games in the tournament to progress through to the final (draws, Extra Time, Penalty Shootouts, etc). But those Match Winner stats are noteworthy in that they highlight a team like Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) who don t feature on the 10-year Champions League trophy list

4 above. PSG s high win rate helps demonstrates their progression over the last three seasons... And at the other end of the Win Rate list, a team like Man City have a poor Champions League win record despite featuring near the top of the betting lists (see below). With the above stats and trends in mind, let s take a look at the bookies Champions League 2015/16 prices (decimal odds in brackets)... Champions League Outright Winner: Barcelona 3/1 (4.00) Bayern Munich 9/2 (5.50) Real Madrid 11/2 (6.50) Chelsea 10/1 (11.00) Man City 12/1 (13.00) PSG 16/1 (17.00) Atletico Madrid 20/1 (21.00) Man Utd 20/1 (21.00) Arsenal 20/1 (21.00) Juventus 33/1 (34.00) Valencia 50/1 (51.00) Sevilla 80/1 (81.00) Wolfsburg 80/1 (81.00) 100/1+ bar Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places Champions League Winning Nationality: Spain Evens (2.00) England 3/1 (4.00) Germany 7/2 (4.50) France 14/1 (15.00) Italy 25/1 (26.00) Portugal 33/1 (34.00) Any other 66/1 (67.00) Although the 10-season history above shows the dominance of a handful of nations, and the repeated success of a clutch of top European clubs there is still the possibility for big price wins and Each Way payouts in the Outright Winner betting... Last season, 20/1 shots Juventus reached the final The season before, 20/1 Atletico Madrid finished runner-up And in the 2012/13 season, 20/1 Borussia Dortmund reached the final In all three of those examples, the losing side in the final rewarded early backers with a 10/1 Each Way payout in the Outright Winner market. Champions League Picks Outright Winner: With the stats, trends and prices taken into consideration, a couple of teams standout for our pre-season Picks... Stats Pick looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets flagged up by the stats:

5 Real 11/2 (6.50) Each Way with Betfred, Paddy Power, Stan James, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Betway, Betfair Sportsbook Real Madrid tick a good few boxes on the criteria above a Spanish side... 2 nd in the La Liga last season... a strong Champions League Match Win rate (67%)... Along with a seasoned European manager in Rafa Benitez a man who has been there and done it in the Champions League... and of course one of the greatest players of all time and an incredibly prolific Champions League goal-scorer, Cristiano Ronaldo. Value Pick the pick of the best value prices on offer: Atletico 20/1 (21.00) Each Way with William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook, 18/1 (19.00) Betway, Coral, Stan James, Paddy Power Atletico have been knocking on the door of the big two Real & Barcelona in Spain for a couple of seasons now, and catch the eye as an outsider bet here at the prices available... Atletico have finished 3 rd, 1 st and 3 rd in the Spanish league in the last three seasons and reached the Champions League Semi Finals last season and the final the season before. That s an impressively consistent record at the highest level and with manager Diego Simeone still at the helm they can go well again in 2015/16, too. Last season Atletico kept 7 Clean Sheets in 10 Champions League games. Another similarly disciplined and hard-working effort can put them in a good position to progress through the Group Stage and beyond once again. Atletico are 4/9 (1.44) favourites to win Group C where they face Benfica, Galatasaray and newcomers FC Astana and the Spanish side are strong 1/10 (1.10) favourites To Qualify. Top Scorer Bookies offer 1/4 odds Each Way for the top 4 places in the Champions League Top Goalscorer market... Last season the payouts came from these players: 1. Lionel Messi (Barcelona, winners) 10 goals WON/ DEAD HEAT 1. Neymar (Barcelona, winners) 10 goals WON/ DEAD HEAT 1. Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid, semi final) 10 goals WON/ DEAD HEAT 4. Adriano (Shakhtar Donetsk, last 16) 9 goals PLACED The season before, in 2013/14, the payouts came from: 1. Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid, winners) 17 goals WON 2. Zlatan Ibrahimovic (PSG, quarter final) 10 goals PLACED 3. Diego Costa (Atletico, runner-up) 8 goals PLACED 3. Lionel Messi (Barcelona, quarter final) 8 goals PLACED In 2012/13:

6 1. Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid, semi final) 12 goals WON 2. Robert Lewandowski (B.Dortmund, runner-up) 10 goals PLACED 3. Burak Yilmaz (Galatasaray, quarter final) 8 goals PLACED/ DEAD HEAT 3. Lionel Messi (Barcelona, semi final) 8 goals PLACED/ DEAT HEAT 3. Thomas Muller (Bayern Munich, winners) 8 goals PLACED/ DEAD HEAT In 2011/12: 1. Lionel Messi (Barcelona, semi final) 14 goals WON 2. Mario Gomez (Bayern Munich, runner-up) 12 goals PLACED 3. Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid, semi final) 10 goals PLACED 4. Karim Benzema (Real Madrid, semi final) 7 goals PLACED In 2010/11: 1. Lionel Messi (Barcelona, winners) 12 goals WON 2. Samuel Eto o (Inter Milan, quarter final) 8 goals PLACED 2. Mario Gomez (Bayern Munich, last 16) 8 goals PLACED 4. Nicolas Anelka (Chelsea, quarter final) 7 goals PLACED Key stat: Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo have been Top Scorer in each of the last eight Champions League seasons The scorer stats above tell us that players winning the Top Scorer award or finishing in the Top 4 places for an Each Way payout had some or all of the following factors in common: All 21 scorers listed above played for a team that at the very least progressed beyond the Group Stage to the Last 16 (100%) 19 of the 21 players teams made it to the Quarter Final or beyond (90%) 14 of the 21 players teams reached the Semi Final or beyond (67%) 9 of the 21 players teams reached the Final (43%) All 21 players scored 7 or more goals (100%). And all the 1 st place Top Scorers scored at least 10 goals each The historical stats say that for a potential Each Way bet, we re looking for a player to score 7+ goals for a team that make it to the Last 16 (Knockout Stages) or better. For an Outright Winner bet, the numbers say we re looking for a player to score 10+ goals for a team that reaches the Quarter Finals or beyond. With all that in mind, let s take a look at the bookies Champions League 2015/16 prices (decimal odds in brackets)... Champions League Top Scorer: L.Messi Barcelona 3/1 (4.00) C.Ronaldo Real Madrid 7/2 (4.50) L.Suarez Barcelona 8/1 (9.00) Neymar Barcelona 10/1 (11.00)

7 R.Lewandowski Bayern Munich 16/1 (17.00) S.Aguero Man City 16/1 (17.00) T.Muller Bayern Munich 20/1 (21.00) D.Costa Chelsea 25/1 (26.00) A.Robben Bayern Munich 33/1 (34.00) Z.Ibrahimovic PSG 33/1 (34.00) K.Benzema Real Madrid 33/1 (34.00) A.Griezmann Atletico Madrid 33/1 (34.00) A.Sanchez Arsenal 40/1 (41.00) 50/1+ bar Each Way terms: 1/4 odds 1-4 places Champions League Picks Top Scorer: With the stats, trends and prices taken into consideration, three players standout for our pre-season Picks... Stats Picks looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets flagged up by the stats: Lionel 3/1 (4.00) with Paddy Power, BetVictor, Ladbrokes Cristiano 7/2 (4.50) with Paddy Power, William Hill, 3/1 (4.00) in general I make no apologies for going for the two top men here. The stats make it abundantly clear Messi and Ronaldo have dominated the Champions League Top Scorer charts over the last EIGHT seasons, and neither player is showing much sign of a let up... Backing both to win at 3/1+ each gives an overall profit if one of them takes the Top Scorer award for what would be the ninth season in a row. Value Pick the pick of the best value prices on offer: Zlatan 33/1 (34.00) Each Way with Bet365, Skybet, 25/1 (26.00) in general At 33 years of age, Zlatan Ibrahimovic remains one of the top strikers in the world football and looks a pretty huge Each Way price at 33/1 here... Zlatan scored 34 goals in 40 total appearances for club & country in all competitions last season goals in 46 apps the season before... and 41 goals in 50 apps before that. In that same period his club PSG have reached the Champions League Quarter Finals three seasons in a row. With Ibrahimovic finishing 2 nd in the Champions League Top Scorer chart for an Each Way payout in the 2013/14 campaign. In short Messi and Ronaldo are the men to beat, and Ibrahimovic is the value at 33/1. Group Winners

8 The Champions League Group Stages are made up of 32 teams, spread across eight Groups each consisting of four teams. The top two teams in each Group qualify for the Knockout Stages. As you might expect, many of the big clubs (Barcelona, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich) are short odds-on prices to win their Groups this season. It s hard to find any value where teams like that are involved especially when a 2 nd place Group finish is still qualifies them for the knockout rounds. Looking beyond the favourites, there is little that catches the eye elsewhere for us, preseason. The one team combination that was on my mind was Man City and Juventus in Group D where City look somewhat overrated as the 11/10 (2.10) Group Winner favourites, with the Italians Juventus last season s Champions League runners-up the 2/1 (3.00) underdogs. The rest of the Group is made up of 5/1 (6.00) Sevilla and 15/1 (16.00) Borussia M Gladbach... However, City have had a fantastic start to the Premier League season with 5 out of 5 wins and no goals conceded and could be better placed to do well in Europe than in the last two seasons where they have come 2 nd in their Group to Bayern Munich two times in a row. On the eve of Match-day One, the Group Winner markets are a no bet for me. Champions League Picks... Here s a summary of our 2015/16 pre-season bets, as outlined above... Stats Picks looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets flagged up by the stats: Outright Winner Real 11/2 (6.50) Each Way with Betfred, Paddy Power, Stan James, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Betway, Betfair Sportsbook. Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places Top Scorer Lionel Messi to 3/1 (4.00) with Paddy Power, BetVictor, Ladbrokes Top Scorer Cristiano Ronaldo to 7/2 (4.50) with Paddy Power, William Hill, 3/1 (4.00) in general Value Picks the pick of the best value prices on offer: Outright Winner Atletico 20/1 (21.00) Each Way with William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook, 18/1 (19.00) Betway, Coral, Stan James, Paddy Power. Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places Top Scorer Zlatan 33/1 (34.00) Each Way with Bet365, Skybet, 25/1 (26.00) in general. Each Way terms: 1/4 odds 1-4 places

9 Note: We record all Picks to a 1 pt level stake. Each Way bets are recorded as 1 pt total each (0.5 pt Each Way). I ve outlined five bets in this report all based on a wealth of Champions League statistics & betting trends, all available at what I rate as good value prices based on the stats. Look out for your Champions League match bets by before each round of games during the season using exactly the same approach: finding the top-rated bets based on the stats, to find the best moneymaking opportunities with the Stats You Need To Know and our Champions League Picks before every round of games. Here s to a profitable season, Best wishes, Oliver Upstone Champions League Bet