Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Update Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014 2019 Thomas Barnett, Jr. Director, SP Thought Leadership Arielle Sumits Senior Analyst Shruti Jain Senior Analyst Usha Andra Senior Analyst February 2015 Cisco Knowledge Network (CKN) Session
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Expanding the Scope of Cisco s IP Thought Leadership Cisco VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers. Global Forecast Data VNI Global Mobile Speed Data
Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers By 2019: More Mobile Users 2014 2019 4.3 Billion 5.2 Billion Mobile Momentum Metrics More Mobile Connections Faster Mobile Speeds 2014 2019 7.4 Billion 11.5 Billion 2014 2019 1.7 Mbps 4.0 Mbps More Mobile Video 2014 2019 55% of Traffic 72% of Traffic
Overview
By 2019, global mobile data traffic will reach an annual run rate of 292 exabytes per year, up from 30 exabytes in 2014 (nearly 10-fold growth). 292X More than all IP traffic generated in 2000 65 Trillion images (e.g., MMS or Instagram) 6 Trillion video clips (e.g., YouTube)
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line Global Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 10-Fold from 2014 2019 57% CAGR 2014 2019 30 25 24.3 EB Exabytes per Month 20 15 10 5 2.5 EB 4.2 EB 6.8 EB 10.7 EB 10.8 EB 16.1 EB 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Year in Review 2014 Strong Growth Reported Worldwide COUNTRY China Japan India Australia Italy Mobile data traffic of China s top 3 mobile operators grew 83% from mid-2013 to mid-2014 Mobile data traffic grew 43% from 3Q 2013 to 3Q 2014, according to Japan s MIC Bharti Airtel reported mobile data traffic growth of 95% between 3Q 2013 and 3Q 2014 Reliance Communications reported mobile data traffic growth of 75% between 3Q 2013 and 3Q 2014 As reported by ACMA, mobile data traffic grew 52% from mid-2013 to mid-2014* As reported by AGCOM, mobile traffic in Italy in 3Q13 was up 45% Y/Y* France As reported by ARCEP, mobile traffic in France was up 107% from 3Q 2013 to 3Q 2014* Germany As reported by BNA, mobile traffic in Germany grew 71% in 2013* Sweden Korea TREND US As reported by CTIA, mobile data traffic grew 120% in 2013* As reported by PTS, mobile traffic in Sweden grew 32 percent from mid-2013 to mid-2014 As reported by regulator KCC, mobile data traffic grew 36% between 1H13 and 1H14 Other Vodafone s European traffic grew 60% from 1Q 13-14 to 1Q14-15*
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Regions MEA has the Highest Growth Rate (72%) from 2014 2019 APAC will Generate 39% of all Mobile Data Traffic by 2019 Exabytes per Month 30 25 20 15 10 Latin America (LATAM) Middle East and Africa (MEA) Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Western Europe (WE) North America (NA) Asia Pacific (APAC) 7.3% 8.4% 12.5% 14.4% 9.9% 15.7% 57% CAGR 2014 2019 5 0 39.1% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Average Mobile User (Cellular Traffic per Month) GLOBAL Global MB per Month BY REGION North America Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe Asia-Pacific Latin America Middle East & Africa 2014 2019 585 4,406 1,893 11,029 916 5,808 627 8,299 431 3,181 466 3,954 353 3,746
Average Mobile User (Cellular Traffic per Month) Sample Global Usage 585 MB 2014 Traffic/month 2019 4.4 GB Traffic/month 3 Hours of Video 30 Hours of Video 3 Hours of Audio 10 Hours of Audio 10 Video Calls 10 Video Calls 4 App Downloads 20 App Downloads
Regional Mobile Networking Dynamics 2014 to 2019 Unique Conditions Affect Each Region s Mobile Data Traffic Growth REGION No. of Mobile Users No. of Mobile Devices / M2M No. of Users 2GB / Month Average Mobile Speed Mobile Data Traffic Asia Pacific 2.8B Users +5% (CAGR) 5.4B Connects +8% (CAGR) 844 Users +46% (CAGR) 3.5 Mbps +12% (CAGR) 9.5 EBs / Mo. +58% (CAGR) Central & Eastern Europe 407M Users +1% (CAGR) 1.0B Connects +8% (CAGR) 179M Users +49% (CAGR) 3.7 Mbps +18% (CAGR) 3.5 EBs / Mo. +71% (CAGR) Latin America 497M Users +3% (CAGR) 997M Connects +5% (CAGR) 169M Users +51% (CAGR) 2.9 Mbps +16% (CAGR) 2.0 EBs / Mo. +59% (CAGR) Middle East & Africa 799M Users +7% (CAGR) 1.7B Connects +7% (CAGR) 269M Users +56% (CAGR) 2.1 Mbps +29% (CAGR) 3.0 EBs / Mo. +72% (CAGR) North America 320M Users +2% (CAGR) 1.2B Connects +22% (CAGR) 161M Users +14% (CAGR) 6.4 Mbps +18% (CAGR) 3.8 EBs / Mo. +47% (CAGR) Western Europe 383M Users +1 (CAGR) 1.2M Connects +14% (CAGR) 147M Users +26% (CAGR) 4.7 Mbps +18% (CAGR) 2.4 EBs / Mo. +48% (CAGR) Note: The numbers above pertain to 2019, and the CAGR s are for 2014 2019 period.
Drivers
Global Mobile Users From 4.3 Billion in 2014 to 5.2 Billion by 2019 at 4.3% CAGR Global Mobile Users Growing 4X Faster than Global Population North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe 2014: 294 M 2019: 320 M CAGR 1.7% 2014: 367 M 2019: 383 M CAGR 0.8% 2014: 382 M 2019: 407 M CAGR 1.3% Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific 2014: 427 M 2019: 497 M CAGR 3.1% 2014: 561 M 2019: 799 M CAGR 7.3% 2014: 2,228 M 2019: 2,844 M CAGR 5.0%
Global Mobile Device and Connections From 7.4 Billion in 2014 to 11.5 Billion by 2019 at 9% CAGR North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe 2014: 432 M 2019: 1,155 M CAGR 21.7% 2014: 612 M 2019: 1,179 M CAGR 14.0% 2014: 690 M 2019: 1,025 M CAGR 8.2% Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific 2014: 770 M 2019: 997 M CAGR 5.3% 2014: 1,200 M 2019: 1,676 M CAGR 6.9% 2014: 3,733 M 2019: 5,439 M CAGR 7.8%
Global Mobile Speed Growth Average Mobile Speed Will Double from 1.7 Mbps (2014) to 3.9 Mbps (2019) North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe 2.27-fold Growth 2.8 to 6.4 Mbps 2.3-fold Growth 2.0 to 4.7 Mbps 2.27-fold Growth 1.6 to 3.7 Mbps Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific 2.1-fold Growth 1.4 to 2.9 Mbps 3.6-fold Growth 0.6 to 2.1 Mbps 1.7-fold Growth 2.0 to 3.1 Mbps
Global Mobile Video Traffic By 2019, Video Will Drive 72% of Mobile Traffic, Up from 55% in 2014 North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe 75% of traffic by 2019 54% CAGR 74% of traffic by 2019 56% CAGR 70% of traffic by 2019 83% CAGR Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific 72% of traffic by 2019 69% CAGR 68% of traffic by 2019 84% CAGR 71% of traffic by 2019 67% CAGR
Global Mobile Data Traffic Mobile Data Traffic will Increase Nearly 10-Fold from 2.5 EB/month in 2014 to 24.3 EB/month by 2019 North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe 6.8-fold Growth 563 to 3,823 PB/mo 7.1-fold Growth 341 to 2,414 PB/mo 14.4-fold Growth 242 to 3,496 PB/mo Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific 10.1-fold Growth 201 to 2,035 PB/mo 15.3-fold Growth 199 to 3,043 PB/mo 9.7-fold Growth 977 to 9,503 PB/mo
Top Trends
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2014 2019 Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Continuing Shift to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Defining Cellular Network Advances (2G, 3G, 4G) 3 Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption M2M and Emerging Wearables 4 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Usage Increases 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/Offload by Access Type 6 Identifying A Potential Mobile App Wildcard VoWiFi 7 Profiling Mobile Bandwidth Consumption Patterns 8 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements 9 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Unlimited Data Makes Comeback 10 Tracking IPv6 Significant Global Mobile Adoption
Global Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2019, Smartphones Will Attain Largest Share to Reach Nearly 40% 12 10 8 Other Portable Devices (0.2%,0.2%) Tablets (1%,3%) Laptops (3%,2%) M2M (7%,28%) Smartphones (29%,40%) Non-Smartphones (61%,27%) 9% CAGR 2014 2019 Billions of Devices 6 4 2 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 * Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 device share
Global Growth of Smart Mobile Devices & Connections By 2019, Smart Devices will Have 54% Share of Total Devices & Connections Billions of Devices 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Non-smart Devices and Connections Smart Devices and Connections 74% 26% 69% 31% 63% 37% 57% 43% 51% 49% 46% 54% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 9% CAGR 2014 2019 * Smart devices are those having advanced multi-media/computing capabilities with a minimum of 3G connectivity.
Global Growth of Smart Mobile Devices & Connections By 2019, Smart Devices will Have 59% Share of Total Connections 12 10 Non-smart Devices and Connections Smart Devices and Connections 7% CAGR 2014 2019 *Excludes LPWA Billions of Devices 8 6 4 2 0 41% 48% 56% 63% 69% 74% 59% 52% 37% 44% 26% 31% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 * Smart devices are those having advanced multi-media/computing capabilities with a minimum of 3G connectivity.
Smart Devices & Connections Share Percent of Total Mobile Devices & Connections Global 2014 2019 26% 59% BY REGION North America Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe Latin America Asia-Pacific Middle East & Africa 72% 48% 18% 20% 24% 11% 89% 78% 62% 61% 56% 41% *Excludes LPWA
Globally, in 2014, a smart device generated 22 times more traffic than a non-smart device. * Smart devices are those having advanced multi-media/computing capabilities with a minimum of 3G connectivity.
Global Impact of Smart Devices & Connections on Mobile Traffic By 2019, Smart Devices Will Have 97% Share of Traffic 30 25 Non-smart Traffic Smart Traffic 3% 57% CAGR 2014 2019 Exabytes per Month 20 15 10 5 0 12% 88% 10% 90% 8% 92% 94% 95% 97% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 6% 5%
Smart Devices & Connections Traffic Share Percent of Total Mobile Devices & Connections Traffic Global 2014 2019 88% 97% BY REGION North America Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe Latin America Asia-Pacific Middle East & Africa 99% 95% 77% 85% 86% 78% 100% 99% 96% 98% 96% 93%
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2014 2019 Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Continuing Shift to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Defining Cellular Network Advances (2G, 3G, 4G) 3 Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption M2M and Emerging Wearables 4 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Usage Increases 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/Offload by Access Type 6 Identifying A Potential Mobile App Wildcard VoWiFi 7 Profiling Mobile Bandwidth Consumption Patterns 8 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements 9 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Unlimited Data Makes Comeback 10 Tracking IPv6 Significant Global Mobile Adoption
Global Connections by Network Type LPWA, 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share Billions of Devices or Connections 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 62% 32% 2G 3G 4G LPWA 45% 38% 15% 44% 26% 22% *Includes M2M 1.0 0.0 8% 6% 2% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Connections by Network Type Regional Share by 2019 *Includes M2M, Includes LPWA 2G 3G 4G LPWA Global 21% 44% 26% 8% BY REGION Asia Pacific 23% 46% 26% 5% Central and Eastern Europe 20% 51% 22% 7% Latin America 23% 55% 21% 0.3% Middle East and Africa 32% 54% 14% 0.2% North America 5% 20% 42% 32% Western Europe 15% 31% 38% 15%
Global Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share Billions of Devices or Connections 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 62% 31% 7% 2G 3G 4G 45% 38% 17% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 48% 31% 21% *Excludes M2M
Global M2M Connections by Network Type LPWA, 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share Billions of Devices or Connections 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2G 3G 4G LPWA 35% 29% 42% 23% 38% 13% 67% 13% 32% 1% 7% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2014 2019 Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Continuing Shift to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Defining Cellular Network Advances (2G, 3G, 4G) 3 Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption M2M and Emerging Wearables 4 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Usage Increases 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/Offload by Access Type 6 Identifying A Potential Mobile App Wildcard VoWiFi 7 Profiling Mobile Bandwidth Consumption Patterns 8 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements 9 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Unlimited Data Makes Comeback 10 Tracking IPv6 Significant Global Mobile Adoption
Global M2M Connection Growth Global M2M Connections will Grow 7-Fold from 2014-2019; By 2019, Nearly Half of Global M2M Connections Will Be 3G or Better Billions of M2M Connections 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 B 1% 32% 67% 2G 3G 4G LPWA 0.7 B 1.1 B 1.6 B 2.3 B 3.2 B 29% 35% 23% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 * In 2014, 4G accounts for 1% and LPWA accounts for 0.2% of global mobile M2M connections. 13% 45% CAGR 2014 2019
By 2019, M2M modules will be 28% of total global mobile devices and connections and will account for 5% (1.2 EBs/month) of mobile data traffic.
Global Connected Wearable Devices Global Connected Wearables will Grow 5-Fold from 2014-2019; By 2019, 7 Percent will Have Embedded Cellular Connectivity 40% CAGR 2014 2019 700 7.3% 8.0% Millions of Connected Wearables 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1.9% 109 M 170 M 236 M 325 M 441 M 578 M 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% % with Embedded Cellular Connectivity
Regional Connected Wearable Devices North America Will Have the Largest Share by 2019 Millions of Connected Wearables 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Western Europe (18%,18%) North America (30%,33%) Middle East & Africa (4%,4%) Latin America (6%,5%) Central & Eastern Europe (8%,9%) Asia Pacific (34%,32%) 236 M 171 M 109 M 326 M 441 M 40% CAGR 2014 2019 578 M 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 * Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 regional wearable devices share
Wearable Device Usage Wearable Camera Use Case Scenario (300 MB/Hour) Only 2 hours of wearable camera usage* can generate more than the average monthly traffic per typical user in 2014. *Assumes live streaming over a cellular network
Global Connected Wearable Devices Traffic Global Connected Wearables Traffic will Grow 18-Fold from 2014-2019 Monthly Traffic (PB) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2.0% 15 33 61 106 175 9.1% 277 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 78% CAGR 2014 2019 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% % Embedded Cellular Traffic
Regional Connected Wearable Devices Traffic North America will Maintain the Largest Share Monthly Traffic (PB) 300 250 200 150 100 50 Western Europe (10%,12%) North America (37%,39%) Middle East & Africa (2%,3%) Latin America (2%,3%) Central & Eastern Europe (5%,9%) Asia Pacific (44%,34%) 78% CAGR 2014 2019 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 * Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 regional wearable devices traffic share
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2014 2019 Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Continuing Shift to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Defining Cellular Network Advances (2G, 3G, 4G) 3 Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption M2M and Emerging Wearables 4 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Usage Increases 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/Offload by Access Type 6 Identifying A Potential Mobile App Wildcard VoWiFi 7 Profiling Mobile Bandwidth Consumption Patterns 8 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements 9 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Unlimited Data Makes Comeback 10 Tracking IPv6 Significant Global Mobile Adoption
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps Video to Exceed 72 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2019 Exabytes per Month 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Mobile File Sharing (1%,2%) Mobile Audio (8%,7%) Mobile Web/Data/VoIP (36%,19%) Mobile Video (55%,72%) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 57% CAGR 2014 2019 * Figures (n) refer to 2014 and 2019 mobile data traffic shares
Global Mobile Cloud Traffic Cloud Accounted for 81% of Mobile Data Traffic in 2014 Cloud will Account for 90% of Mobile Data Traffic by 2019 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 19% 17% 15% 14% 12% 10% 81% 83% 85% 86% 88% 90% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mobile Non-Cloud Traffic IP Voice File Sharing File/App Downloading Mobile Cloud Traffic Video Streaming Audio Streaming Online Gaming Social Networking Web Browsing Online Storage
Top Traffic Generating Smartphone Apps Facebook YouTube Browser Netflix Maps Spotify Instagram WhatsApp Top Traffic-Generating Mobile Apps (Smartphone) tinycam Monitor SoundCloud Hulu Plus Email Pandora Twitter Social Media Video Streaming Web Browsing Video Streaming Utilities Audio Streaming Image Sharing Communications Video Monitoring Audio Streaming Video Streaming Communications Audio Streaming Communications Facebook YouTube Browser Netflix Instagram WhatsApp Spotify Tumblr Skype Dropbox Email Skydrive Viber Top Traffic-Generating WiFi Apps (Smartphone) Social Media Video Streaming Web Browsing Video Streaming Image Sharing Communications Audio Streaming Social Media Communications Cloud File Storage Communications Cloud File Storage Communications Hulu Plus Video Streaming
Top Traffic Generating Tablet Apps YouTube Browser Facebook 4shared TubeMate Crunchyroll TV 2 Sporten Instagram O2 TV EA Games Viber Maps Ztory VPN Top Traffic-Generating Mobile Apps (Tablet) Video Streaming Web Browsing Social Media Social Media Video Downloading Video Streaming Video Streaming Image Sharing Video Streaming Online Gaming Communications Utilities Publication YouTube Netflix Browser Facebook Top Traffic-Generating WiFi Apps (Tablet) tinycam Monitor Xfinity TV Player Showtime Anytime Twitch TV VLC Video Player Spotify TWCable TV CANAL+ TuneIN Radio Video Streaming Video Streaming Web Browsing Social Media Video Monitoring Video Streaming Video Streaming Video Streaming Video Streaming Audio Streaming Video Streaming Video Streaming Audio Streaming Business Application NY Times Publication
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2014 2019 Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Continuing Shift to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Defining Cellular Network Advances (2G, 3G, 4G) 3 Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption M2M and Emerging Wearables 4 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Usage Increases 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/Offload by Access Type 6 Identifying A Potential Mobile App Wildcard VoWiFi 7 Profiling Mobile Bandwidth Consumption Patterns 8 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements 9 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Unlimited Data Makes Comeback 10 Tracking IPv6 Significant Global Mobile Adoption
Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload* 54% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2019 46% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2014 Exabytes per Month 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices 46% 54% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 *Offload includes traffic from dual-mode devices (i.e., supports cell & Wi-Fi, excl. laptops) over Wi-Fi/small cell networks
Global Mobile Data Traffic and Offload Traffic, 2019 4G Devices Offload More Traffic Than 3G and 2G Mobile and Offload Traffic from Mobile- Connected Devices 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 56% 44% 54% 43% 46% 57% 2G 3G 4G Mobile Traffic Offload Traffic *Offload includes traffic from dual-mode devices (i.e., supports cell & Wi-Fi, excl. laptops) over Wi-Fi/small cell networks
Globally, the amount of traffic offloaded from tablets will be 70% by 2019. Globally, the amount of traffic offloaded from smartphones will be 54% by 2019. *Offload includes traffic from dual-mode devices (i.e., supports cell & Wi-Fi, excl. laptops) over Wi-Fi/small cell networks
Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology Starting in 2017, Fixed/Wi-Fi Traffic Surpasses Fixed/Wired Traffic Exabytes per Month 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 Mobile Data (61% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (11% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi (26% CAGR) 21% CAGR 2013 2018 12% 37% 40,000 20,000 51% 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2014 2019 Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Continuing Shift to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Defining Cellular Network Advances (2G, 3G, 4G) 3 Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption M2M and Emerging Wearables 4 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Usage Increases 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/Offload by Access Type 6 Identifying A Potential Mobile App Wildcard VoWiFi 7 Profiling Mobile Bandwidth Consumption Patterns 8 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements 9 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Unlimited Data Makes Comeback 10 Tracking IPv6 Significant Global Mobile Adoption
Day in a Connected life Data Consumption by Location Home Work Hotspot On the go 50% 35% 11% 4% * Reflects mature mobile markets and working adults usage Source: Cisco VNI, 2015
Global Wi-Fi Hotspot Coverage and Availability Existing Growth Future Pay-as-you-go Free access driving other services (Retail free Wi-Fi) Managed services (venues and outdoor) Cellular offload (user driven) Added value for broadband subscription Advertising and sponsorship Total Public WLAN Hotspots 2014: 6.9M 2019: 14.7M Cellular offload (carrier driven) Community Wi-Fi/homespots Carrier-grade VoWiFi TV everywhere Large events Big data analytics Public transportation Wi-Fi Total Public WLAN + Community Hotspots 2014: 34.2M 2019: 54.9M Wi-Fi capacity trading Transaction platform Internet of things Context awareness HetNet Wi-Fi + mobile Connected car (in-car Wi-Fi) Total Incremental Hotspots
VoWiFi Minutes of Use Exceed VoLTE by 2018 VoWiFi Accounts for 53% of Mobile IP Voice by 2019 Minutes of Use (Trillions) per Year 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 VoWiFi VoLTE VoIP 53% 41% 71% 29% 6% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: ACG, Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014 2019
VoWiFi Traffic Exceeds VoLTE by 2017 VoWiFi Will Be More Widely Available than VoLTE 35 30 25 VoWiFi Traffic VoLTE Traffic VoIP Petabytes per Year 20 15 10 5 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: ACG, Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014 2019
Wi-Fi Connects Nearly 3.5x Cellular Connected Tablets and PCs by 2019 # of Cellular Capable Devices 542 Million # of Wi-Fi Capable Devices 1.9 Billion Tablets PCs
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2014 2019 Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Continuing Shift to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Defining Cellular Network Advances (2G, 3G, 4G) 3 Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption M2M and Emerging Wearables 4 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Usage Increases 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/Offload by Access Type 6 Identifying A Potential Mobile App Wildcard VoWiFi 7 Profiling Mobile Bandwidth Consumption Patterns 8 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements 9 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Unlimited Data Makes Comeback 10 Tracking IPv6 Significant Global Mobile Adoption
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G Globally, 4G Will Support 68% of Mobile Traffic by 2019 Exabytes per Month 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2-2.5G 3-3.5G 4G 10% 50% 40% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2% 30% 68%
Globally, in 2014, a 4G connection generated 2.2 GB/mo, 10X higher than the 217 MB/mo for non-4g connections.
Busy Hour Mobile Data Traffic Busy Hour Is 64% Higher than Average Hour in 2014, 84% in 2019 160 140 120 Average Hour Traffic Busy Hour Traffic 100 Tbps 80 60 40 20 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Global Average Mobile Connection (Devices and M2M); Traffic per Month GLOBAL Global MB per Month 2014 2019 339 2,120 BY REGION North America Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe Latin America Asia-Pacific Middle East & Africa 1,302 558 351 261 262 166 3,308 2,048 3,412 2,042 1,747 1,815
Mobile Device Data Traffic 2014 Mobile Device Data Traffic Generation Comparisons M2M Module = 3 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) Wearable Device = 6 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) Smartphone = 37 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) Tablet = 94 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) Laptop = 119 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic)
Average Cellular Traffic Per Mobile Device Type 2014 2019 MBs per Month MBs per Month Non-Smartphone 22 105 M2M Module Wearable Device Wearable Device Smartphone Smartphone Tablet Tablet Laptop 70 366 141 479 819 3,981 2,076 10,767 2,641 5,589 Note: In 2014, 4G smartphones generated 2GBs/month and 4G tablets generated 3GBs/month.
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2014 2019 Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Continuing Shift to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Defining Cellular Network Advances (2G, 3G, 4G) 3 Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption M2M and Emerging Wearables 4 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Usage Increases 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/Offload by Access Type 6 Identifying A Potential Mobile App Wildcard VoWiFi 7 Profiling Mobile Bandwidth Consumption Patterns 8 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements 9 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Unlimited Data Makes Comeback 10 Tracking IPv6 Significant Global Mobile Adoption
Mobile Network Speeds Increase 2.4X by 2019 Average Cell Connection Speed (1.7 Mbps in 2014) Will Grow at a 19% CAGR Reaching Nearly 4.0 Mbps by 2019 GLOBAL Global Mbps 2014 2019 1.7 3.9 BY REGION North America Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe Latin America Asia-Pacific Middle East & Africa 2.8 2.0 1.6 1.4 2.0 0.6 6.4 4.7 3.7 2.9 3.5 2.1
Global Average Wi-Fi Speeds Wi-Fi Exceeds Average Mobile (Cell) Speeds During 2014-2019 GLOBAL Global Mbps 2014 2019 8.1 10.2 BY REGION North America Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe Latin America Asia-Pacific Middle East & Africa 12.3 11.0 10.7 5.7 11.3 4.6 15.1 15.4 15.7 9.3 16.1 8.8
Global Mobile Speeds by Device Type Tablet Speeds are 3.3x Higher than Average by 2019 Smartphone Speeds are 2.6x Higher than Average by 2019 Mbps 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Tablets Smartphones All Mobile Devices 13 Mbps 10 Mbps 4 Mbps 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Global Mobile Speeds by Network Type 4G Speeds will be 4X Higher than Average by 2018 3-3.5G Speeds will be 1.2X Higher than Average by 2019 16 14 12 10 4G 3G All Network Types 2G 14.2 Mbps Mbps 8 6 4 2 0 5 Mbps 4 Mbps 110 Kbps 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2014 2019 Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Continuing Shift to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Defining Cellular Network Advances (2G, 3G, 4G) 3 Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption M2M and Emerging Wearables 4 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Usage Increases 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/Offload by Access Type 6 Identifying A Potential Mobile App Wildcard VoWiFi 7 Profiling Mobile Bandwidth Consumption Patterns 8 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements 9 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Unlimited Data Makes Comeback 10 Tracking IPv6 Significant Global Mobile Adoption
Top Mobile User Profiles: 2010 2014 Top 1 Percent Generates 18 Percent in June 2014 60% 50% Percentage of Top 1 Percent to Total MB/mo. 40% 30% 20% 52% 10% 0% Jan-10 18% Jun-14
Top 20% Users Consume 85% of Monthly Traffic 90% 80% 70% 60% Top Tier Percentage Usage (June 2014) 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 85% 65% 46% 18% Top 1% Top 5% Top 10% Top 20%
Top 20% Users Consume nearly 4 Gigabytes per month * 16 14 12 Top Tier Percentage Usage (June 2014) 10 8 6 4 2 0 15.2 7.6 5.3 3.5 Top 1% Top 5% Top 10% Top 20% * Study limited to few Tier 1 and Tier 2 operators
7 Percent of Users Consume 5 GB per Month 25 Percent Consume over 2 GB per Month * Percentage of Users (June 2014) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 7% 25% Greater than 5 GB Greater than 2 GB 79% Greater than 200 MB 96% Greater than 20 MB 99% Greater than 1 MB * Study limited to few Tier 1 and Tier 2 operators
ios Usage Surpasses Android 1,800 1,600 1,400 Jun-14 Oct-13 1,200 Megabytes per Month 1,000 800 600 400 894 MB/mo 58% of plans 1.3 GB/mo 1.3 GB/mo 54% of plans 42% of plans 1.6 GB/mo 46% of plans 200 0 Android ios
Tiered Plans Outnumber Unlimited Plans; Unlimited Plans Continue to Lead in Data Consumption * 100% 80% 37% of plans 45% of plans 1.9 GB 2.6 GB Unlimited Tiered Percentage Number of Mobile Data Plans (June 2014) 60% 40% 20% 63% of plans 55% of plans 0.98 GB 1.1 GB 0% Tier 1 Operators All Operators * Study limited to few Tier 1 and Tier 2 operators
Number of Shared Plans Increase Shared plan usage growing marginally faster than regular plans * 100% Percentage Number of Mobile Data Plans 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 79% of plans 72% of plans 1.1 GB 1.5 GB Regular Plans Shared Plans 28% of plans 21% of plans 865 MB 1.3 GB Oct-13 Jun-14 * Study limited to few Tier 1 and Tier 2 operators
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2014 2019 Top Mobile Networking Trends 1 Continuing Shift to Smarter Mobile Devices 2 Defining Cellular Network Advances (2G, 3G, 4G) 3 Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption M2M and Emerging Wearables 4 Analyzing Mobile Applications Video Usage Increases 5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/Offload by Access Type 6 Identifying A Potential Mobile App Wildcard VoWiFi 7 Profiling Mobile Bandwidth Consumption Patterns 8 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements 9 Reviewing Tiered Pricing Unlimited Data Makes Comeback 10 Tracking IPv6 Significant Global Mobile Adoption
Global IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices/Connections By 2019, 59% of Mobile Devices/Connections Will be IPv6-Capable 7.0 6.0 5.0 25% CAGR 2014 2019 6.2B Number of Devices (B) 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2.0B 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Global IPv6 Mobile Data Traffic Forecast By 2019, IPv6 Traffic Projected to be 52% of Mobile Data Traffic Billions 14 12 10 107% CAGR 2014 2019 12.6 Exabytes per Month 8 6 4 2 0 0.3 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Conclusion
Cisco VNI Global Mobile Forecast, 2014 2019 Key Takeaways / Summary Mobile Users By 2019, there will be 5.2 billion global mobile users, 69% of global population. Mobile Devices/Connections By 2019, there will be 1.5 mobile connections per capita globally. Mobile Network Speeds By 2019, avg. mobile connection speed will more than double (1.7 Mbps to 4.0 Mbps). Mobile Video By 2019, over 72% of the world s mobile data traffic will be video. Mobile Traffic Offload By 2019, 54% of mobile data traffic will be offloaded to Wi-Fi/small cell networks. Mobile Smart Devices Traffic By 2019, smart devices will generate 97% of global mobile data traffic. Mobile Data Traffic By 2019, mobile data traffic will reach 24.3 EBs/per month (292 EBs annually).
Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast; 2014 2019 Get more info see Tools and Resources Homepage: www.cisco.com/go/vni / Email: traffic-inquiries@cisco.com
MWC World Congress 2015 Transformation through Innovation URL: http://cisco.com/go/mwcevent February 2015 Cisco Stand #: 3E30 / Show Hours: Mon-Wed: 9:00-19:00 Thurs: 9:00-16:00