Mobile Voice ~ Whispers of Change?

Transcription

1 WHITEPAPER Mobile Voice ~ Whispers of Change? This whitepaper is an extract from: Mobile Voice Strategies mvoip Opportunities & Business Models, information you can do business with

2 Mobile Voice ~ Whispers of Change 1. Introduction Voice remains the most important element within the broader mobile telecoms market; however several threats exist to this mainstay of operator revenues. Indeed, the role that voice plays in the telecommunications ecosystem of the future will be very different from today owing to unprecedented structural, competitive and technology drivers. On one hand, mobile operators penetration rates have reached saturation in developed markets, bringing about unprecedented competition. On the other hand, Voice over IP is becoming an increasingly important driver for change in the mobile operator community, as handsets become more and capable of efficient data carriage and faster data speeds enable efficient voice over IP on the mobile networks. In addition, WiFi will become more capable of voice carriage. This may relieve pressure on operators networks, but it will also allow third parties the opportunity to start offering voice services. Meanwhile, regulatory pressure will only increase on operators to accept VoIP on their networks in the interest of net neutrality - the concept whereby services such as voice should be allowed on operators networks, irrespective of the technology used. However, while pressure is being exerted on the voice market from various avenues, such as increased competition and new technology options including mobile Voice over IP, voice traffic remains the mainstay of mobile carriers revenues. Juniper Research s report, Mobile Voice Strategies: mvoip Opportunities & Threats for explores how the voice market will develop, particularly with the advent of Voice over IP in the near to medium term. The pressures on the voice sector illustrated in this report are real and will have a profound effect on the role that voice will play in the revenue mix in the future. But despite the technological and competitive pressures, voice revenues are not going to disappear, even though pricing will continue to fall. Data revenues will not entirely offset this decline but will do so to some extent. Page 1 Juniper Research

3 2. Outlook for Voice Pricing According to the OECD Communications Outlook 2009, between 2006 and 2008, mobile phone prices fell on average by 21 per cent for low-usage consumers, 28 per cent for mediumusage and 32 per cent for subscribers with the highest consumption patterns. While the pressure on voice pricing is most acute in developed markets, where penetration rates have reached or surpassed 100%, emerging markets operators also see margin pressure on their voice business. This is largely because, in order to increase their subscriber base, they will have to offer services to those that until now have been unable to afford mobile telephony. There is, in developed markets, significant growth in mobile broadband connections that will fuel the growth in the transfer of mobile voice over IP. Mobile operators have significantly increased their 3G coverage, while also upgrading to HSPA (High Speed Packet Access) technologies in urban areas. 3G roll out is instrumental in bringing about change in the voice market, since it allows for the carriage of voice over IP over the cellular network, something which is not possible over 2G or 2.5G networks. Mid to long-term, operators will migrate to LTE (Long Term Evolution) as the principle access network technology. This will enable them to offer super-high broadband speeds of up to 50 Mbps and cope with increasing volumes of data traffic. Despite the cost and question marks over return on investment for LTE roll outs, the European Commission has committed to investing more than 700 million over the period , in the research and development of next-generation mobile access networks (e.g. LTE), according to the ITU. In terms of pricing, the value of voice will continue to come down in value. However increasingly, voice will not be able to be seen in isolation from the broader voice and data universe. While operators may charge nominally less for the voice part of a subscription, competitive pricing for voice will only be available if it is sold as part of a broader data and voice package. The end-user will almost certainly get increased value, but may also be paying a similar amount, or, in certain instances more, for their overall communications bill. When considered in this light, operators accepting VoIP traffic on their networks becomes understandable since it is opting for the best method of carriage for a certain data type. Short range WiFi, on one hand, and mobile VoIP on the other, (which can be carried over several different technologies) will have an important impact on the development of the voice market. Indeed, their impact is a major theme of juniper s report. 3. Mobile VoIP: Description and Market Implications The advent of IP based voice to the mobile network, and the advent of the all IP network which LTE represents, signifies the most important change in how data and voice is carried over the mobile networks in the last two decades. In a nutshell, Mobile VoIP can be defined as the carriage of voice traffic over mobile networks using the Internet protocol, usually via an enabling technology called SIP (Session Initiation Protocol). Mobile VoIP differs from circuit switched mobile telephony in that an end to end connection between two carriers does not need to be established. With VoIP, in simple terms, Page 2 Juniper Research

4 the voice call is fragmented into packets at the call initiators end, transferred over the internet, and reassembled at the call destination. Since no end-to-end link is required for the duration of the call, Mobile VoIP renders obsolete the interconnection and roaming agreements that mobile operators around the world have forged with one another, thereby resulting in a far cheaper mode of voice carriage for the end user. 4. User Forecasts Juniper Research forecasts the number of Mobile VoIP users to exceed 100 million by Of 107 million mobile VoIP users by 2012, over half will reside in North America and Europe, owing to the fact that 3G, which is required for mobile VoIP to be effective, has been rolled out in those regions. Figure 1: Number of Mobile VoIP users (m) by 8 Key Regions 120 Africa & Middle East Rest of Asia Pacific Indian Sub Continent Far East & China Central & Eastern Europe Western Europe Latin America North America Source: Juniper Research Indeed, by 2012, there will be significant uptake of mobile VoIP in its various different flavours, with both 3G and WiFi networks supporting mobile VoIP apps. In addition, several operators are developing relationships with mobile VoIP players such as Skype and Truphone. Order the Full Report This whitepaper is taken from Juniper Research s report Mobile Voice Strategies: mvoip Opportunities & Business Models , which investigates the opportunity for m VoIP for new entrants and established operators. Page 3 Juniper Research

5 This detailed report provides an in-depth view of the mobile voice market, analysing and projecting the market for the entire mobile voice ecosystem and how it will develop over the next five years. It considers the outlook for VoIP pricing and provides a comprehensive roadmap for the development of VoIP over 3G and 4G networks. Key forecasts include the number of 3G subscribers using VoIP, as well as the value of traffic carried over VoIP networks split by mobile VoIP applications and mobile VoIP alliances with operators. It also forecasts the number of VoIP minutes used as well as traffic value and user forecasts for 4G mobile VoIP. This strategic report also forecasts the number of minutes and associated revenues lost to VoIP over WiFi connections. The report includes an in-depth discussion on the value of mobile VoIP and its role in the future of the mobile voice market. It also includes an exploration of the technologies used within the voice market, providing analysis the various methods of how voice will be carried over the 4G networks. Key questions answered by this report: How many mvoip users will there be worldwide by 2015? What are the key drivers for the deployment and adoption of mvoip? How will Application stores change the market? What options do traditional operators have in the light of mvoip? How much traffic will be lost to WiFi in the five years to 2015? For more details on this report visit the website or phone +44 (0) Juniper Research Limited Juniper Research specialises in providing high quality analytical research reports and consultancy services to the telecoms industry. We have particular expertise in the mobile, wireless, broadband and IP-convergence sectors. Juniper is independent, unbiased, and able to draw from experienced senior managers with proven track records. Publication Details Publication date: June 2010 Author: Anthony Cox For more information, please contact: Michele Ince, General Manager michele.ince@juniperresearch.com Juniper Research Ltd, Church Cottage House, Church Square, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 7QW UK Tel: +44 (0) / Fax: +44 (0) Further whitepapers can be downloaded at Page 4 Juniper Research

6 companies included 3 UK Blyk BT Facebook France Telecom fring Google Google Talk Google Voice JAJAH TN Nimbuzz Nokia Orange Skype Sprint Nextel Symbian TCM Mobile T-Mobile Truphone Verizon VoLGA Vodafone Vonage author profile Anthony Cox is a Senior Analyst with Juniper Research and is responsible for Mobile Markets channel as well as the Handsets and Devices stream within the organisation. Anthony has written reports on subjects as diverse as Mobile Security, Mobile Health, M2M and Smartphones. Anthony has over ten years experience across fixed, broadband and mobile telecommunications and has written extensively in the field. He was formerly Editorial Director for Informa Telecom. Anthony holds a Masters in Business from the University of Greenwich and a BA Joint Honours in French and Hispanic Studies from the University of Nottingham. to place your order product details Please tick your requirement Mobile Voice Strategies mvoip Opportunities & Business Models Single User License Multi User Network License (2-5 users) Enterprise Wide License (all organisation) - add additional hardback copy add trackable courier delivery ,750 2,500 3,750 * 2,630 3,750 5,630 * 1,970 2,810 4,220 Account Services - For further information on account services and respective discounts you can expect to receive, please contact john.levett@juniperresearch.com or (UK) /(US) hard copy PDF Post or Fax your order to Juniper Research Limited Church Cottage House, Church Square, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 7QW England Tel (UK): +44 (0) / Tel (US): Fax: +44 (0) or Order Online or by Web : info@juniperresearch.com * Euro & US$ prices are for guidance only. The exact price will depend upon your bank exchange rate (to the ) on the day of order processing. Prices do not include VAT - charged at prevailing rate in the UK. Standard Courier Delivery is Free other recent reports Mobile Payment Markets Mobile Payments for Digital/Physical Goods Mobile Healthcare Opportunities Mobile Web 2.0 Mobile Social Web 2.0 Mobile Marketing & Retail Strategies Mobile Location Based Services Mobile Ticketing Applications & Markets Mobile Cloud Applications & Services Embedded Mobile & M2M Strategies For further information, or to order online/by visit or contact info@juniperresearch.com. To contact us by post write to: Juniper Research Ltd, Church Cottage House, Church Square, Basingstoke, Hampshire, RG21 7QW England Tel (UK) / Tel (US) or Fax The personal information provided by you on this form will be held on a secure database, and will not be shared with any external companies or organisations. If at any time you wish to withdraw your details from our database, or from receiving further information concerning news items, partner news or about new Juniper Research services or products, then please news@juniperresearch.com with the words UNSUBSCRIBE in the subject line. Alternatively write to us at the above address. Registered Office: Church Cottage House, Church Square, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 7QW England Registered in England Registered No: VAT No: Publication Date: June