TECHNOLOGY WORLD TOUR Global Technology Market Update

Transcription

1 TECHNOLOGY WORLD TOUR Global Technology Market Update Steve Koenig Director, Industry Analysis,

2 Data Methodology + = Digital World: Global Consumer Technology Spending Forecasts Retail CE sales tracking at more than 340,000 retail stores in 80 countries. Monthly tracking/forecasting of shipments to U.S. consumer sales channels for dozens of CE categories.

3 Mature North America Western Europe Developed APAC Analysis Considerations: Geographical, Financial Developing Central /Eastern Europe Latin America Emerging APAC (incl. China, India) Middle East/ Africa Exchange Rates (FX) Sales Tax Tech Subsidies

4 DEVICES: What Technologies Are Driving Spending Growth?

5 Smartphones Remain Spending Driver

6

7 Smartphone & Tablets: Claiming More Spending Share 22% Smartphones and Tablets 46% Other Device Categories Fcst Global Tech Device Sales Revenue Source: CEA / GfK Digital World

8 267,296 Global Smartphone Unit Sales and Forecast (000s) 430, % 667, % 996,138 1,273,690 1,509, e 2015f Source: GfK Digital World +28% +49% +19%

9 Smartphones: Emerging Markets Take The Lead Global Market: e 2015f Global Unit Volume (000s) 267, , , ,138 1,273,690 1,509,761 Mature Markets 60% 51% 41% 32% 29% 25% Developing Markets 40% 49% 59% 68% 71% 75% CHINA: 13% 34%

10 117,717 Global Smartphone Revenue & Forecast Millions of USD 181, % 253, % 330, , , % +30% +9% e 2015f Source: GfK Digital World

11 2010 Smartphones - Global ASP Trend (USD) fcst 275

12 China: Home-Grown Brands Bringing Smartphones to the Masses Global Incumbents Feeling the Pressure Entered Chinese mkt in May 2014 with Online sales strategy 70% of sales online 2014 Sales: 61m units RedMi 2 sub-$150 Coolpad Halo 7-inch 1080p; 1.7GHz octa-core 2GB RAM Sources: Wall Street Journal, Tech in Asia

13 Chinese Brands: Not Just Cheap Phones Xiaomi Mi5 5.7-inch display 2560 x bit quad-core Qualcomm Snapdragon 810 Adreno 430 graphics chipset 3GB of RAM 20.7-megapixel main camera How are other brands competing? Lenovo/Moto; Huawei; Samsung; LG

14 Global Tablet Unit Sales Fcst. (000s) 224, , ,009 15,884 61, , % +111% +74% +25% +20% e 2015f Source: GfK Digital World

15 Developing Markets Driving Tablet Sales Low-cost models for all Global Market: e 2015f Global Unit Volume (000s) 61, , , , ,009 Developing Markets 21% 28% 37% 41% 44% North America 49% 41% 35% 35% 35% Other Mature Markets 30% 31% 28% 24% 22%

16 Global Tablet Revenue Turns Negative 37,127 Millions of USD 68,355 67,636 56,383 61,961 11, % +52% +21% -1% -8% e 2015f Source: GfK Digital World

17 Global Tablet ASP (in USD)

18 U.S. Tablet Shipments Unit Forecast Screens >9" Screens <9" 48,843 48,380 47,270 28,562 29,638 33,415 59% of Shipments e 2015f Source: CEA

19 Tablets: A Universe of Use Cases CURRENT: FUTURE: Consumer applications Education Vertical markets Retail

20 Global TV Volumes Return to (Slow) Growth m +14% m m +3% +13% m +3% m -8% m 0% 2015 Fcst 2014 Est 251m 247m +1% +2% Penetrating New Markets Big Screen Innovation Global TV Unit Sales Source: GfK Demand Projector Dec 2014

21 Move to Larger Screen TVs is a Global Phenomenon 41'' 39'' 37'' 35'' 33'' 31'' Avg. Screen Size Est LCD TV Average Screen Size Source: GfK TV Demand Projector December Fcst 40 Mature Markets Global Average Developing Markets

22 K Ultra HD TV Forecast (M) Global Market ROW China Source: GfK, TV Demand Projector, Dec %

23 Ultra HDTV - U.S. Unit Shipment Forecast (000s) % of 40-inch and higher LCD TVs 48% 10,000 60% 13,000 63% 14, % 1,300 20% 4, f 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e Source: CEA, January 2014 CE Sales and Forecasts

24 : Mixed Consumer Technology Spending Picture Global Tech Device Retail Sales Revenue Growth Source: GfK Digital World

25 Mature Markets Global Tech Spending Searching for Equilibrium $570bn $$593 $564 bn bn 57% 54% 51% $516bn 51% Growth (2014 vs 2011) -9% % 46% 49% 49% 14% $437bn Developing Markets $447 m $497bn Global Tech Device Retail Sales Revenue Mix Source: GfK Digital World

26 Emerging Asia Now Leads Tech Spending

27 North America Regaining Share

28 Magnificent Seven Regional Revenue Shares 83% 64% Share of Global Tech Device Retail Sales Revenue in $ - by Region, 2014

29 GLOBAL MARKET:

30 Global Tech Rose Slightly in 2014 Global Tech Device Sales Revenue Source: GfK Digital World

31 Slight Growth in 2014 Volumes Unit growth in core categories softening. tablets and smartphones LCD TV $1.024 Trillion (+1%) Product / Pricing Mix Several categories mature or rapidly maturing. Lower-end devices (and ASPs) required to penetrate lower consumer tiers of emerging markets. Next wave of innovations building global momentum. Smart watches, smart home techs, etc.

32 Global Market Update Summary 2014 global technology spending +1% to Trillion USD Shift to lower-end devices in emerging markets pulling down ASPs. Emerging Asia region (led by China) now leads tech spending (2014: 282 Billion USD, 26% Revenue Share) Global consumer tech spending remains driven by mobile, connected devices. But for how long?

33 TECHNOLOGY WORLD TOUR Global Technology Market Update Steve Koenig Director, Industry Analysis,