4G Operator Strategies & the Key Lessons Learned

Transcription

1 4G Operator Strategies & the Key Lessons Learned Omar Janabi Head of Customer Marketing & Communications Cambridge Wireless, Mobile Broadband SIG, 8th of May Nokia Siemens Networks Cambridge Wireless, Mobile Broadband SIG, 8th of May 2013

2 4G is now mainstream 163 operators have commercially launched 4G in 67 countries 248 commercial 4G networks in 87 countries expected by end million 4G subscribers (end of Q4 2012) 4G (LTE) is now re-affirmed by GSA as the fastest growing mobile technology ever Source: GSA Evolution to LTE report (April 7 th, 2013) Time to reach 1bn connections: 4G (LTE) 3G (WCDMA) 2G (GSM) years Estimates by Strategy Analytics, May bn 4G (LTE) connections by early 2017 Forecast by Strategy Analytics (May 2012) 2 Nokia Siemens Networks Cambridge Wireless, Mobile Broadband SIG, 8th of May 2013

3 and a market reality Nokia Siemens Networks has more than 80 4G (LTE) customers today Canada Canada Luxembourg Denmark Finland Sweden Sweden Russia China South Korea large-scale deployments USA USA Germany Denmark Finland Latvia Latvia India Philippines South Korea IMS USA USA Germany Croatia France Estonia Estonia Azerbaijan Singapore South Korea Chile UK Germany Liechtenstein Switzerland Poland Lithuania UAE New Zealand Japan Chile Brazil Brazil Italy Austria Slovenia Greece Saudi Arabia Australia Japan 51 commercially launched Spain Portugal South Africa Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Italy Japan 3 Nokia Siemens Networks Cambridge Wireless, Mobile Broadband SIG, 8th of May 2013

4 But why are operators launching 4G? We don t want to invest in our CDMA network anymore. We need to move heavy data users to a more cost-efficient network. This is a chance for us to win market share. We need to maintain our brand position as a technology leader. Our competition are doing it! 4G is the best way to bring high-quality connectivity to rural areas. 4 Nokia Siemens Networks Cambridge Wireless, Mobile Broadband SIG, 8th of May 2013

5 Leaders Market share, brand support Premium price, high quality Telia 3x 3G DoCoMo 1.6x 3G 4G operator strategies Followers Later to market exploit weakness Mass market focus Challengers Improve market position Overcome existing gap (CDMA) Reluctant Participants Strong 3.5G network and market share Toe in the water Limited/city centre rollout Limited devices CDMA CDMA 4G = ~3G Verizon 4G = 3G (1H 2012 promo, LTE = 50% of 3G) AT&T 83% of 3G Bharti 150% of 3G M1 175% of 3G (2011/12 promotion: 4G = 3G) CSL 135% of 3G 4G pricing Nichers Reach new (rural) markets DSL substitution, no smartphones LTE = 3G + 10 to 20% 5 Nokia Siemens Networks Cambridge Wireless, Mobile Broadband SIG, 8th of May 2013

6 But how is the 4G end user experience? End users perceive 4G as even faster than fixed Customer experience of network delay 4G measurements in a commercial network RTT 500 ms 400 ms 300 ms Mobile network Fixed network RTT 50 ms 40 ms 30 ms 200 ms 20 ms 100 ms 10 ms 0 ms MEA LAT APAC CEE NAM WE 0 ms 6pm 6am 6pm 6am 6pm 6am 6pm Source: Cisco Analysis of Ookla Speedtest Data, 2011 Source: Epitiro Ltd.: LTE Real World Performance Study (TeliaSonera) November 2012: Japan s NTT cuts fixed-line tariffs by 34% per month to counter the migration of its customers to cheaper 4G mobile broadband 4G is good enough to replace fixed even in Japan 6 Nokia Siemens Networks Cambridge Wireless, Mobile Broadband SIG, 8th of May 2013

7 and real life performance is beating expectations Latency is the key differentiator together with upload speed Drive test measurements of 10MHz bandwidth LTE- FDD, commercial network Average Download Speed 25 Mbps Average Upload Speed 11 Mbps Average Latency 27ms Worst measurement 51ms Drive test measurements fast train up to 290 km/h (average 110 km/h) Milvang Dong Daequ Average throughput 21.6 Mbps 96% call success rate Overall 4G customer experience is better than many fixed connections today 7 Nokia Siemens Networks Cambridge Wireless, Mobile Broadband SIG, 8th of May 2013

8 How about the usage patterns? Usage patterns vary by country and culture Australia High-traffic transit + restaurant zones Small businesses Beach and renting and lower-income residential in older renting residential buildings Japan & Korea On subway trains At subway stations 8 Nokia Siemens Networks Cambridge Wireless, Mobile Broadband SIG, 8th of May 2013

9 the same services though but a bit more Changes in activity levels after 4G introduction Services Increase (%) Web Surfing (Naver, Daum Portal..) 35.2 Chatting (KakaoTalk..) 33.1 SNS (Facebook..) 28.9 Video Streaming (Youtube..) 27.5 News Client 16.2 Car Navigation 12.7 Internet Radio / Audio Streaming 11.3 Smartphone Banking 9.2 Internet TV (DMB) 9.2 Gaming 8.5 Travel Information 7.7 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, The same things as before, just more Average data per user, MB No unlimited data plans Unlimited data plans EE UK, April 2013: 4G usage averages 1.4 GB/m, double 3G Largest increases in video, mobile banking, and online shopping 3G LTE Sources: LG Electronics Research Institute and Mobile World Live, April Nokia Siemens Networks Cambridge Wireless, Mobile Broadband SIG, 8th of May 2013

10 Observed 4G critical success factors Success Factors Inhibitors Wide/residential coverage Wide range of 4G handsets 4G sold at or near 3G price 4G integrated with 3G (or otherwise easy to experience) More usage = more money All of the above Business district-only coverage Limited 4G handset offering 4G sold at a premium price 4G sold separately from 3G Unlimited/unmonetized data All of the above Sweden 10 Nokia Siemens Networks Cambridge Wireless, Mobile Broadband SIG, 8th of May 2013

11 11 Nokia Siemens Networks Cambridge Wireless, Mobile Broadband SIG, 8th of May 2013 Thank you