The Need for Speed: NZ s appetite for better broadband

Transcription

1 The Need for Speed: NZ s appetite for better broadband Quarterly Market Update September 2014 July 2014

2 Social benefits of ultra-fast broadband Summary How NZ is tracking globally Internet of things Connected Home Multiple devices per user, per household Remote home management Personal cloud and storage Business data demands Cloud services & M2M monitoring Teleworking and home working Data analytics and automation Ultra high-definition video TV on demand Video communications Gaming and e-learning Security and surveillance Smart Cities Utility asset management Intelligent public transport CCTV cameras and public safety Education and health services Trends in New Zealand Exponential device growth slow on home management Average # of smart devices in NZ homes increased from 2.9 to 5.2 in 3 years Smartphones have grown from 13% penetration in 2011 to 68% in 2014 Tablets have grown from 4% penetration in 2011 to 39% in 2013 IDC NZ Consumerscape Survey 2014 New Zealand small business yet to capture productivity and revenue gains Business fibre uptake has grown from 9% to 15% between 2010 and % of SME s have a website; 18% use cloud services $33 billion in identified economic benefits NZ Statistics Business use of ICT 2012 ; MYOB Trans-Tasman report 2014: Bell Labs UFB study, Multiple devices and high definition video are driving bandwidth growth NZ video traffic grew 40% in 2 years: now comprises 74% of consumer traffic The average household generated 26GB per month in 2013, up from 10GB in June % of consumer s recent TV purchase was a Smart TV - (Australia 18%) Early stages: cities are developing digital strategies Cisco VNI forecast; NZ Statistics ISP survey Initial focus is intelligent transport platforms and enabled WiFi hotspots Auckland developing innovation clusters Techapuna and Wynard Quarter Regional Gigatown contestants developing digital strategies

3 New Zealander s personal internet use is changing We are global leaders in our use of social media 88% of New Zealand are comfortable using the internet, up from 75% in % NZ users could be classed as next generation users 73% of NZ believe the internet is important to everyday life. Up from 56% in 2007 The internet is an increasingly important part of our lives 47% of NZ (44% in US) respondents would prefer to shop online than in a physical store 2nd for active users of Facebook, 85% of consumers We are leaders in personal usage where services are available 5th For streaming movies and TV on a PC, 40% of PC owners A next gen users is are defined by their accessing of the internet through multiple devices, including mobile devices, along with several other indicators of high level online engagement 2nd for daily use of tablets, 64% of tablet owners 2nd For viewing user generated content on a PC, 58% of PC owners Source: World Internet project, IDC Consumer Scape 2014 Benchmarking Broadband New Zealand s path to generating global broadband envy P9

4 Broadband Connections per 100 population NZ broadband is growing steadily We are extending our lead on the OECD average for uptake May 2006: Government announces separation of Telecom and regulatory change Wired Broadband Penetration Rates March 2008: first launch of local loop unbundling September 2007: Broadband overtakes dial-up December 2010: UFB officially launched NZ Dec broadband penetration OECD average 27.0 broadband penetration Estimated 1 77% of NZ households have broadband today 15 th in OECD ahead of US, Australia and Japan 0 Source: OECD Broadband Portal ( 1: Chorus estimate based on growth. Statistics NZ estimated household broadband uptake to be 75% at June 2013 (Household Use of ICT survey).

5 Demand is driven by growth in connected devices Average # of smart devices in NZ homes increased from 2.9 to 5.2 in 3 years Streaming music 0.3 Mbps Video sharing 2 Mbps SD TV 2 Mbps Browsing 3-5 Mbps OTT video 1-2 Mbps Smartphone 1-2 Mbps Smartphones have grown from 13% penetration in 2011 to 68% in 2014 Online gaming 1-2 Mbps Photo sharing 1 Mbps HD TV 6-8 Mbps VoIP 0.1 Mbps HD gaming 6-8 Mbps HQ Video Calling 1-2 Mbps Tablets have grown from 4% penetration in 2011 to 39% in 2014 Source: IDC New Zealand Consumerscape 2014

6 and demand for online video Video is 71% of total traffic today Average data usage per connection is 26GB (NZ Stats ISP survey) PB 9% 55% NZ Total Monthly Traffic by Application Cisco Visual Networking Index PB 9% 58% 96.8PB 10% 61% 111.3PB 11% 63% 124.8PB 12% 65% 139.7PB 13% 67% Consumer video Consumer - web and other data Business - web and other data Consumer - file sharing Consumer - online gaming Business - video Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) 2013 ( / PAGE 6

7 7:00 7:06 7:12 7:18 7:24 7:30 7:36 7:42 7:48 7:54 8:00 8:06 8:12 8:18 8:24 8:30 8:36 8:42 8:48 8:54 9:00 9:06 9:12 9:18 9:24 9:30 9:36 9:42 9:48 9:54 10:00 10:06 10:12 10:18 10:24 10:30 10:36 10:42 10:48 10:54 Throughput at Layer 2 (Mbps) Stimulating annual bandwidth growth of 50%+... > Chorus annual bandwidth growth is ~80% driven by a mix of increasing usage and new connections > Concurrent use of video on multiple devices will drive network challenges, as traffic is aggregated through the network 18 Web browsing (2 people) 16 Netflix Netflix using 6Mbps on AppleTV Lightbox Lightbox using 2Mbps on IPAD2 Chorus Network Analysis of one 2 person household Location = Auckland Connection = 70Mbps VDSL Netflix on Apple TV with WiFi to standard router LightBox on IPAD (Gen 2) Experience no perceived quality issues 4 Average = 290kbps 6.26Mbps 8.42Mbps 6.32Mbps 230kbps 2 0 Time (h:mm) on the evening of Thursday 12 th September DOCUMENT TITLE / V 1.0 / XX DAY 2012 / PAGE 7

8 Consumer value is increasing alongside industry investment (Commerce Commission Telecommunications Report 2013) > *Consumers are getting more value while paying less Average household monthly telco spend declined from $155 two years ago to $142 in Now equivalent to 2.9% of household expenditure Retail telco revenues dropped 1% to $5.21 billion fixed line revenues dropped 2% Spending on Telco services is about the same in real terms as it was ten years ago yet consumers are getting far more for their money (Commerce Commission) > NZ continues to see significant investment in network capability, coverage and capacity > in 2013, industry investment increased to $1.58 billion 30% of total retail revenues > UFB highest proportion of investment- balance is primarily 4G network/spectrum capex Household Expenditure on Telecommunications Telecommunications Services Expenditure in real terms (monthly) Telecommunication services expenditure as a % of total household expenditure /4 2006/7 2009/ /13 $133 $145 $155 $ % 3.02% 3.30% 2.94% Industry revenues to capex investment 2005/ / / / / / / /13 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% *Commerce Commission Annual Telecommunications Report 2013 Total Telecommunications retail revenues Capital investment as a % of revenues Total fixed line retail revenues

9 UFB will keep NZ amongst the leaders in coverage of fast broadband % of households passed 100% New Zealand had the highest increase in Fibre coverage in the OECD during 2013 NZ 2020 Only 2 countries in the OECD currently have greater fibre coverage than what UFB will provide 0% % of HP in 2011 % of HP in 2012 % of HP in 2013 Benchmarking Broadband New Zealand s path to generating global broadband envy P5 / PAGE 9

10 Market size and growth - DOCUMENT TITLE / V 1.0 / XX DAY 2011 September 2014 Data

11 New Zealand's Addressable Market Number of NZ households Dwelling Households Owner-occupied 1,138,400 1,090,300 Rented 571, ,800 Provided free 66,500 63,700 Total 1,776,000 1,700,900 Source: Stats NZ, Q Number of fixed broadband capable premises Number of capable addresses / premises Number of Business Premises BUBA (mostly ADSL) 1,959,001 EUBA (mostly ADSL2+) 1,861,067 VDSL2 1,101,411 Fibre 517,203* Cable 194,000* Home Businesses: ~206k Source: Copper from Chorus, Fibre from MBIE and Cable from Vodafone Note: Copper capability is reported as the number of Chorus addresses capable of receiving a service. It is possible that legacy addresses and/or duplicates may exist within the dataset. Source: Stats NZ, Chorus Source: Chorus quarterly volume reporting, Sept 2014 ( / PAGE 11

12 New Zealand s fixed broadband market continued growth in connections NZ Broadband Connections - Jun 2014 Chorus Connections - Q Note: The chart above is not purely fixed broadband as it includes cellular connections such as dongles and sim enabled tablets, as well as satellite > Broadband connections grew 8% in the year to June 2014 Fibre connections grew 254%, climbing from 13k in to 2013 to 46k in 2014 > Chorus experienced continued broadband growth in the Sep 2014 quarter An additional 15k connections were added in Q with VDSL growing 25% and Fibre growing 32% Source: Chorus quarterly volume reporting, Sept 2014 ( / PAGE 12

13 Strong migration to broadband, data & fibre Chorus Access Lines: Quarterly Net Additions Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sept-14 15,000 10,000 5,000 6,000 4,000 5,000 3,000 11, ,000-10,000-15,000-6,000-13,000-10,000-9,000-5,000-20,000 Total lines Copper voice/dial-up Copper broadband/data (incl unbundled copper) Copper total Fibre (dark, point to point, GPON) Total lines stable at ~1.8 million, supported by household growth Steady migration to broadband and data services, but copper in decline overall Fibre continues to grow each quarter; total connections = 53,000 Source: Chorus quarterly volume reporting, Sept 2014 ( / PAGE 13

14 Demand for high speed broadband is growing Averaging 5,000 VDSL and 2,200 fibre net additions each month Chorus Broadband Lines: Quarterly Net Additions Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sept-14 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000-10,000-15,000 12,000 16,000 Total broadband (incl unbundled copper) Broadband growth continues; now 1.31 million connections 1,000-11,000 9,000 16,000 Unbundled copper UBA (basic & enhanced) VDSL Fibre (GPON) Standard mass market broadband is in decline, reflecting demand for a better broadband experience 3,000 10,000 Growth is in high speed broadband; now = 9% of Chorus broadband, up from 2% last year VDSL is available to ~60% of NZ households, with 80,000 total connections to date (Sept-14) Chorus fibre broadband is available to over 380,000 users, with 41,000 total connections Source: Chorus quarterly volume reporting, Sept 2014 ( / PAGE 14

15 Connections As a result, Chorus product mix is changing Chorus Access Lines by Product Steady migration to EUBA, VDSL and Fibre: now 57% of lines, up from 48% last year 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, % 1.5% 2.0% 2.4% 3.0% 0.7% 1.4% 2.4% 3.6% 4.5% 46% 47% 48% 50% 50% Voice/dial-up lines are steadily declining, but still represent a quarter of our connections 800, , , , % 14.5% 12.3% 9.7% 9.3% 7.2% 7.3% 7.3% 7.4% 7.4% 28% 27% 27% 26% 25% 0 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Fibre (dark, point to point, GPON) 22,000 27,000 35,000 42,000 53,000 VDSL 13,000 25,000 42,000 64,000 80,000 EUBA 821, , , , ,000 BUBA 279, , , , ,000 Unbundled copper 128, , , , ,000 Copper data 21,000 19,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 Copper voice/dial-up (Standalone Baseband) 492, , , , ,000 Source: Chorus quarterly volume reporting, Sept 2014 ( / PAGE 15

16 Number of Connections Current broadband users get on average between 10Mbps and 18Mbps Histogram based on recorded speed in the Chorus network as at September ,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 DSL speed varies due to loop length, home wiring and modem issues Maximum basic broadband (ADSL) speed is 8Mbps Maximum standard broadband (ADSL2+) speed is 24Mbps Maximum high speed copper (VDSL2) speed is 72Mbps Spike at 7Mbps is attributable to legacy customer modem issues Fibre connection speed is based on product plan configured in software rather than defined by distance. 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ADSL ADSL2+ VDSL2 GPON Connection Speed (Mbps)

17 Chorus estimates average connection speed will be ~22Mbps by 2017 > Reflects: Network capability enhanced through copper upgrades and fibre rollouts Customer uptake of high speed copper (VDSL) and mass market fibre Reduction in number of legacy modems Mbps December 01, Mbps September 01, 2014 / PAGE 17

18 Datacaps are shifting to support increased bandwidth capability and consumption Residential connections by datacap Business connections by datacap 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 75,000 73, , , , , , , , , , , , , , % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 3,100 2,400 8,000 9,300 10,000 10,000 28,000 45,000 97,000 87,000 28,000 68, , , , No cap 100GB or more 50GB to less than 100GB 20GB to less than 50GB Less than 20GB > Connections with no datacap increased 74% and 201% for residential and business respectively, in > Monthly data usage in 2014 was 53,068 terabytes, up from 34,651 Terabytes in 2013 Source: Statistic NZ, 2014 ISP survey DOCUMENT TITLE / V 1.0 / XX DAY 2012 / PAGE 18

19 UFB: slow start but gaining ground UFB build and uptake ,200, % 1,170,000 90% 1,000, ,000 Initial deployment is in CBD & priority sectors 847, ,000 80% 70% 711,000 60% 600, ,000 50% 40% 400, ,450 30% 200, , ,633 10% Industry launched retail fibre plans in 2013 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 20% 10% 0% UFB Premises passed % uptake Source: MBIE UFB Quarterly Progress Update / PAGE 19

20 Gigatown awareness is supporting regional growth Uptake rates reflect RSP marketing focus and impact of active local providers Uptake also reflects general regional demand trends large urban areas have higher overall rates of broadband uptake Gigatown competition is creating growing awareness and local demand potential 1: Includes Auckland North, Auckland South, Pukekohe, Waiuku & Waiheke Island. Source: Chorus quarterly volume reporting, June 2013 ( / PAGE 20

21 Implications > Underlying demand drivers for telecommunication services are strong More devices, increasing adoption of online video and blurring professional/personal requirements are increasing demand for better broadband > From a connection perspective, the fixed broadband space is still a growth market Total broadband connections grew 8% in the year to Jun 2014 Chorus network saw continued growth in Q with 1.178m broadband connections, up from 1.163m in Q > Availability of high-speed services are driving growth and churn, creating opportunities and threats Standard mass market broadband experienced negative net additions over the last 3 quarters, while VDSL and fibre have been positive. Churn to higher speed services creates a decision point in end-users minds, opening the door to evaluate alternative providers. > Service offerings are adjusting in light of the shifting landscape, and more is likely to come Unlimited plans are now prevalent across providers and the numbers connecting to these are on the rise Marketing messages are increasingly referring to experience and speed factors (such as throttling) as opposed to just price and data.