CB RICHARD ELLIS Market View Oslo Office Market Development Prime Yield Prime Rent Hot Topics 10 Changes from Prime office yield decreased to 5.75% 09 Summary Prime yield hits sub 6.00% Prime office yield decreased to 5.75% in Office yields are expected to remain relatively stable during early 2011 with possible downward pressure on quality assets and a continued flight to premium properties Our models indicate that the yield on prime office properties in Oslo will remain within a range of 5.50% to 6.00% during 2011 being heavily dependant on the strength of lease covenant and location Prime CBD rents remain stable at 3,200/m 2 Prime vacancy rate steady at 7.5% Unemployment under control although increased in The rental market appears positive Prime CBD rental levels remained relatively stable in at around NOK 3,200/m 2 We expect moderate growth for prime accommodation throughout 2011 Increased incentives are expected to be offered by property owners in order to secure sitting tenants Mainland GDP was positive for the fifth consecutive quarter Transaction volume was relatively stable Prime vacancy rate stable for now Prime office vacancy rate remains steady at 7.5% in We expect the vacancy rate to remain at this level for prime accommodation up until supply levels increase in 2012 Market shaping up for a healthy 2011 Method: models Our prognosis models are based on an analysis of historical data which end up in a regression model with inputs from the labour market, the interest rate market and other supply and demand drivers. Valuation & Research CB Richard Ellis - Oslo Local Real Estate World Wide Global leader in real estate services Leasing Capital Markets Corporate Services, CB Richard Ellis, Inc.
jun. 07 sep. 07 des. 07 mar. 08 jun. 08 sep. 08 des. 08 mar. 09 jun. 09 sep. 09 des. 09 mar. 10 jun. 10 sep. 10 des. 10 Market View Oslo Office Broad growth in GDP The quarterly national accounts for show that the gross domestic product (GDP) for Mainland Norway increased by 0.9%, whereas the total GDP fell by 1.6% in the same period. This was the fifth quarter in a row that GDP for Mainland Norway increased. The growth was driven by a broad increase in production of goods and services, excluding the decrease in extraction of hydrocarbon products on the continental shelf The result of this year and the forecast for the coming years are encouraging. Growth in mainland GDP is expected to be 2.0% in, and to increase by 3.0% in 2011 and 3.4% in 2012. Increase in unemployment At the end of December, 69,935 persons were registered as unemployed with NAV. This equals 2.7% of the workforce. This represents an increase of 2,585 in the number of totally unemployed compared to last year. Going forward the unemployment rate is expected to increase slightly, due to growth in the workforce through rising immigration. The unemployment rate is expected to average 2.8% in, 3.1% in 2011 and 3.2% in 2012. Gross domestic product (GDP) - annual growth - - Source: SSB 2001 2002 GDP GDP-Mainland 2003 2004 2005 2006 Unemployment rate annual average 4,50 % 3,50 % 2,50 % 1,50 % 0,50 % 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 E 2011F Source: NAV 2007 E 2011F 2012F 2013F Key policy rate steady as she goes saw the Central Bank hold the key policy rate unchanged at 2.00% for a fifth consecutive time since May in an attempt to bring inflation close to target and restrain surging residential prices. It was stated at the last executive board meeting that the key policy rate should not be kept low for too long, implying future increases to the key policy rate in 2011. The long-term interest rates have remained relatively flat over the past quarter. The interest rate on 10 years Government bonds increased from 3.19% at the close of to 3.61% at the close of. In the same period the 10 year SWAP increased from 3.98% to 4.35%. NOK strengthens vs. Euro, unchanged vs. USD NOK has increased in value against the Euro in, a situation that is due to the fact that the Euro has suffered on national debt worries in member states and questions on the robustness of the Euro cooperation. NOK is unchanged against USD from the past quarter, but has experienced volatility during. Over the next couple of months developments in the debt situation for Europe and USA will have a big impact on the exchange rate. At the close of, the USD/NOK ratio was 5.8564 and EUR/NOK 7.8125. Interest rates - monthly 9,00 % 8,00 % 7,00 % apr.05 aug.05 des.05 Source: Norges Bank Key Policy Rate 10Y GOV Foreign Exchange 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 EUR/NOK 3m NIBOR 10Y SWAP apr.06 aug.06 des.06 apr.07 aug.07 des.07 apr.08 aug.08 des.08 apr.09 aug.09 des.09 USD/NOK apr.10 aug.10 des.10 Source: Norges Bank Page 2, CB Richard Ellis, Inc.
sep.05 des.05 mar.06 jun.06 sep.06 des.06 mar.07 jun.07 sep.07 des.07 mar.08 jun.08 sep.08 des.08 mar.09 jun.09 sep.09 des.09 mar.10 jun.10 sep.10 des.10 Inflation - annual increase 3,50 % 2,50 % 1,50 % 0,50 % Source: SSB Oil and mainland investments 2 2 1 1 - -1-1 Source: SSB PMI 70,0 65,0 60,0 55,0 50,0 45,0 40,0 35,0 30,0 25,0 Source: NIMA / ISM Page 3 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 E 2011F 2012F 2013F CB Richard Ellis, Inc. CPI CPI-ATE Inflation Target Mainland 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 E 2011F 2012F 2013F Inflation increases on higher energy costs During the course of, CPI rose by 0.1% in October and 0.2% in November respectively, before it increased by 1.1% in December. The increase in December was driven by a 19.9% hike in energy prices. For the period December December, CPI rose by 2.8%, whereas CPI-ATE rose by 1.0%. The twelve month growth was driven higher by increased energy prices (38.8%). Investments fall The oil and gas investments have acted as a buffer for the Norwegian economy during the global cyclical downturn. However, oil and gas investments have fallen 35% from the all time high early, with experiencing a 13% year on year decrease. For 2011 investments are expected to reach a record sum of NOK 150.8 billion. The growth in the mainland investments seem to continue in negative terrain as was the case in and. However, in 2011 investments are expected to increase to a growth of 5.3%. Indicators - the arrows point upwards PMI (survey about the expectations of the purchase managers) increased to 55.7 in November and ended the year at 54.4. Even though December PMI was slightly below figures reported in November, has been the strongest quarter since 2007. Currently, all the part indices have moved above 50, indicating stronger economic growth going forward. PMI for the US in has until the present been somewhat above the Norwegian PMI. At the close of, the US index was 57.0. This is an increase from 56.6 in November. Notable Address Oslo / Name office transactions Area in mnok Yield M² Vendor Investor Karenslyst alle 6, Skøyen Oslo 300 5.60% 8,044 Orkla ASA Pareto Project Finance Aker Solutions Fornebu / Stavanger Oil Major transactions - Oslo Akersgata 1-5 Oslo 100 PMI - NO PMI - US Level Oslo 2 500 * N/A N/A Aker Solutions Pareto Project Finance 4.00% 7.07%** 4,500 Vital Forsikring ASA Finansnærings Hus Oslo 240 6.50% 8,900 Private KLP Eiendom * Includes Stavanger property, two separate contracts, only one sale price released to the market ** Analysed market yield (building 40% vacant as at date of sale) Explore Eiendomsutvikling AS, Torbertra Kapital AS & T H Holm Eiendom AS Market View Oslo Office
Norwegian transaction volume in billions NOK 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 15 22 44 68 53 28,4 30 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 E European transaction volume in billions EUR 300 250 200 150 100 50 Market rents - NOK/sq m 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 1500 1000 0 Page 4 80 110 CB Richard Ellis, Inc. Source: Eiendomsverdi / CB Richard Ellis 163 240 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 E 255 121 Prime Rent CBD AVG Oslo AVG 14 73 105 Healthy transaction volume to close Preliminary transaction volume for indicates volumes in the vicinity of NOK 6 billion, many deals are confidential and being finalised as we speak, therefore we expect this number to increase as deals are finalised in January 2011. This makes for a total transaction volume in excess of NOK 30 billion at the close of. The major office deal in was the Aker Solutions properties in Fornebu and Stavanger with a total realisation reported to be in the vicinity of NOK 2.5 billion purchased by Pareto Project Finance. Prime office properties transacted this quarter have reflected considerably low yields including the Orkla building in Skøyen at a reported level of 5.60% on a ten year sale and lease back deal. These transactions amongst others have led CBRE Research to the view of decreasing the prime yield from 6.00% in to 5.75% in with further compression anticipated in 2011. was the year of property syndications making their presence felt in the Oslo commercial market along with property companies and foreign investors to a lesser degree. Factors such as increased lending inclination and belief in rental increases will continue to see the commercial office sector perform well into 2011. Increased activity is anticipated in 2012 with the large amount of supply to hit the market. From an overall European perspective the results for were surprisingly strong, being the highest quarterly result since with an estimated total transaction volume of 105 billion. Oslo rental levels Eiendomsverdi Næring latest data shows a dramatic increase in leasing activity from with 247 contracts signed in compared to that of 164 in. However, in there were only four deals above NOK 3,000 per m 2 and five deals above 10,000 m 2 in size finalised. A more useful comparable is seen between as the data tends to be cyclical with typically the lowest in leasing transactions annually. The change from to is positive with 236 and 247 contracts signed respectively. The average total rental level for CBD rose from NOK 2,340 per m² to NOK 2,440 per m² in from. Whereas the prime rents rose from NOK 2,880 per m² to NOK 3,070 per m² in as demonstrated in the graph opposite. In light of the development in, CBRE Research have elected to maintain prime market rental level at NOK 3,200 per m². The vacancy rate although relatively under control remains too high. This combined with the anticipated increase in supply in 2012 will see continued moderate rental growth. Market View Oslo Office
MarketView Oslo Office Generally rental levels on the up saw the most activity of any quarter in in terms of leasing deals signed. Furthermore, contracts in totalled 247,640m² and were distributed over 247 contracts. This is a marginal increase year on year for the quarter. Market rents central areas - NOK/sq m Inner City Centre Inner City Skøyen Nydalen 2200 1800 The average rental price of signed contracts in for Oslo was NOK 1,570 per m², up from NOK 1,480 per m² in. According to Eiendomsverdi Næring latest report the submarkets were all in positive rental growth territory this quarter except that of Nydalen which saw the deals signed decrease 14% from that of. The development in the quarterly rental levels continues to develop in somewhat of a volatile manner, however generally positive in the sub markets throughout the greater Oslo area. Year on year the average market rental for on an overall Oslo snapshot increased NOK 5 per m 2 and now stand at NOK 1,570 per m². How low can yields go, again? The vacancy rate for Oslo and Asker/Bærum remained relatively consistent throughout hovering around 7.50%. CBRE Research expect vacancy to be relatively stable as companies consolidate over the next few quarters and look to expand in 2012. This aligns well with the expected supply coming on line at this stage also. Our prognosis is vacancy peaking at 8.00% in 2012 when approximately 400,000m 2 of new office stock will enter the Oslo market (put into perspective this is approximately 5% of the existing stock level). 2011 is forecasted to be much more of the same as the last 12 months. Reports from the labour market indicate the number of unemployed increased marginally in however this appears under control. Prime rent was stable at NOK 3,200 per m² in. CBRE Research anticipate that prime rents will be maintained at around the current level for the next quarter with moderate growth towards the end of 2011 a result of continued lack of supply. Conditions are expected to change dramatically in 2012 with supply levels more than doubling from the previous two years. There is considerable uncertainty related to the supply pipeline however if the expected level of around 400,000m 2 is brought to the market we anticipate vacancies to rise particularly in secondary accommodation as well as incentive levels to increase. Prime yields fell to 5.75% in and there has been rumours of deals at sub 5.50% levels, we believe as demonstrated in 2007 office yields at this level are not sustainable, however this demonstrates the current appetite of investors in the Oslo market at present. Page 5, CB Richard Ellis, Inc. 1600 1400 1200 1000 Source: Eiendomsverdi Rental contract - Statistics - Oslo/Bærum/Asker Number of signed contracts Total meters square (in thousands) Total contractual value (in mill. NOK) Source: Eiendomsverdi Total vacancy - Forecast 350 000 300 000 250 000 200 000 150 000 100 000 50 000 0-50 000-100 000 06 07 08 09 10 1 087 1 184 972 832 791 654 841 747 650 571 4 788 9 405 8 086 8 239 6 704 Absorption New Space Vacancy 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 E2011F CBD prime rental rate NOK/m² - nominal prognosis 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 1500 1000 CBD prime yield - prognosis 9,00 % 8,50 % 8,00 % 7,50 % 7,00 % 6,50 % 5,50 % 4,50 % 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 E 2011E 2012E 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2011F 2012F 1 1 8,00 %
Market View Oslo Office Oslo Info Inhabitants (Greater Oslo) 1.14 million Inhabitants (Oslo) 596 923 Area (km² - Oslo) 1 261 Property Info Office space (m²) 9.3 million Prime Yield 5.75% Prime rent NOK/m² 3 200 For further information about the market report, please contact: CBRE - OSLO GDP per capita (NOK - Oslo) 694.600 Work force (Oslo) 332 000 Unemployment rate (Oslo) 3.50% Vacancy 7.5% Company tax 28 % Property tax 0.7 % CB Richard Ellis, Atrium AS Bryggegata 7, 0250 Oslo t: +47 40 00 57 66 e: office@cbre.no Oslo Map John O. Solberg t: +47 99 04 11 88 e: jos@cbre.no Paul J. Morice t: +47 92 24 29 38 e: pjm@cbre.no Other Services: Capital Markets Christian Hansson t: +47 92 23 11 44 e: ch@cbre.no Macroeconomics Disclaimer CB Richard Ellis The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to independently confirm its accuracy and completeness. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used are for example only and do not represent the current or future performance of the market. This information is designed exclusively for use by CB Richard Ellis clients, and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CB Richard Ellis. Copyright CB Richard Ellis CB Richard Ellis is the market leading commercial real estate adviser worldwide - an adviser strategically dedicated to providing cross-border advice to corporates and investment clients immediately and at the highest level. We have 400 offices in 58 countries across the globe, and employ 24,000 people worldwide. Our network of local expertise, combined with our international perspective, ensures that we are able to offer a consistently high standard of service across the world. For full list of CB Richard Ellis offices and details of services, visit www.cbre.com / www.cbre.no Page 6, CB Richard Ellis, Inc. E 2011F 2012F GDP - annual growth 0.8% -1.4% 1.0% 2.4% 2.2% Mainland GDP - annual increase 1.8% -1.4% 2.0% 3.0% 3.4% Unemployment - annual average 1.9% 1.7% 2.8% 3.1% 3.5% CPI - annual growth 3.8% 2.1% 2.8% 1.5% 2.1% CPI-ATE - annual growth 2.6% 2.6% 1.0% 1.4% 2.0% Private consumption - annual growth 1.6% 0.2% 3.3% 3.9% 3.7% Savings rate - level 3.7% 7.5% 7.0% 6.0% 5.5% Mainland investments - annual growth -1.4% -11.7% -3.9% 5.3% 4.2% Oil investments - annual growth 5.1% 5.7% -5.9% 4.5% 3.2% Arild Sponland t: +47 90 58 06 61 e: as@cbre.no Leasing Marthe Utmo t: +47 92 01 54 57 e: mu@cbre.no Jan R. Herud t: +47 93 45 50 00 e: jh@cbre.no Corporate Services Jon Tufte-Johnsen t: +47 92 02 99 29 e: jtj@cbre.no Morten Kjeldby t: +47 90 69 66 77 e: mk@cbre.no Valuation Paul J. Morice t: +47 92 24 29 38 e: pjm@cbre.no Portfolio Management Gry Orlien t: +47 92 65 54 26 e: go@cbre.no http://www.cbre.no