Midtown South Manhattan Office MarketView

Transcription

1 Midtown South Manhattan Office MarketView CBRE Global Research and Consulting LEASING ACTIVITY 1.1 MSF NYC UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (DEC. 1) 7.5% NYC OFFICE EMPLOYMENT (DEC. 1) 1,6, U.S. GDP CHANGE (Q 1) 4.1% U.S. CCI (DEC. 1) 78.1 Quick Stats Change from last Current Quarter Leasing Activity 1.1 MSF h Net Absorption (.) MSF i Availability 1.% +. pt Vacancy 6.7% +.8 pt Average Asking Rent $ $.7 Direct Sublet $65.8 $5.7 Quick Stats leasing and net absorption figures represent quarterly totals; availability, vacancy and average asking rent represent data as of quarter s end. Quarter-over-quarter changes are represented in the right column. Hot Topics Midtown South logged 1.1 million sq. ft. of leasing during, outpacing the market s five-year quarterly average by 9%. Full-year leasing activity totaled 4.19 million sq. ft., falling 16% short of the robust 5. million sq. ft. of activity seen during 1. The market experienced, sq. ft. of negative net absorption during the quarter, pushing the full-year net absorption mark down to negative 1.17 million sq. ft. Midtown South experienced 1.1 million sq. ft. of leasing during, outpacing the previous quarter s 96, sq. ft. of activity by 17% and the market s five-year quarterly average of 1.4 million sq. ft. by 9%. For the year, Midtown South recorded 4.19 million sq. ft. of leasing activity, falling 16% short of 1 s robust full-year total of 5. million sq. ft. The largest transaction completed during the quarter was Citigroup Inc. s renewal for.55 million sq. ft. at 88 and 9 Greenwich Street. The blockbuster deal was by far the largest lease completed in Manhattan during 1. Four of the five largest deals completed during the quarter were commitments for new space, led by WeWork s 6,-sq.-ft. deal at 41 Park Avenue South. The largest new availability brought to market during was 154, sq. ft. of direct space at 79 Madison Avenue. In addition, 155, sq. ft. of direct space as 87 Park Avenue South and 94, sq. ft. of direct space at 5 Varick Street, both already on the market, fell within 1 months of tenant possession during the quarter, impacting statistics. The new availabilities offset the quarter s leasing activity, resulting in, sq. ft. of negative net absorption. For the year, Midtown Figure 1: Top Lease Transactions South saw 1.17 million sq. ft. of negative net absorption. This was largely due to the negative 1.51 million sq. ft. of net absorption logged during Q1 1. By comparison, Midtown South posted 19, sq. ft. of negative net absorption during 1. The overall availability rate increased basis points during the quarter to end 1 at 1.%. At the same point last year, the overall availability rate was 16 basis points lower, at 8.6%. Meanwhile, the sublease availability rate inched up 1 basis points during Q4 1 to.1%. Midtown South s average asking rent posted a net increase of $.7 during the quarter, reaching a new record-high of $64.58 per sq. ft. Though the overall average was up 17%, or $9.44, from its year-ago level of $55.14 per sq. ft., it has only increased by % over the last two quarters. During, the average asking rent for direct space edged up $.4 to $65.8 per sq. ft., and the sublease average increased 5%, or $.65, to $5.7 per sq. ft. At year s end, Midtown South s average asking rent represented 89% of Midtown s average of $7.85 per sq. ft. By comparison, the differential between the two markets was 91% at the end of Q 1, and 81% at the end of 1. The overall availability rate increased basis points during the quarter to 1.%, while the sublease availability rate edged up 1 basis points to.1%. The average asking rent inched up $.7 quarter-over-quarter to a new all-time high of $64.58 per sq. ft. Size (Sq. Ft.) Tenant Address,55,595 (R) Citigroup Inc. 88/9 Greenwich Street 6, WeWork 41 Park Avenue South 5, Warby Parker 161 Avenue of the Americas 49,574 The Talbots Inc. Park Avenue 4, 1stdibs 51 Astor Place (R) Renewal (E) Expansion (RE) Renewal & Expansion

2 LEASING ACTIVITY Figure : Historical (Million Sq. Ft.) 6 Year to Date Full Year Figure : Current Quarter ( s Sq. Ft.) 1.1 MSF Overall 4 5-Yr. Avg 1.4 MSF Overall leasing activity totaled 1.1 million sq. ft., 9% above of the market s five-year quarterly average of 1.4 million sq. ft. and 17% more than the previous quarter s 96, sq. ft. of activity. Full-year leasing totaled 4.19 million sq. ft., down 16% from the lofty 5. million sq. ft. of activity recorded during 1. Park Avenue South/Madison Square and Hudson Square/ were the two best-performing segments, topping their historical leasing averages by 8% and 7%, respectively. Combined, these two segments accounted for 54% of the quarter s total leasing activity. Meanwhile, Union Square and trailed their historical averages by 1% and 18%, respectively NET ABSORPTION Figure 4: Historical (Million Sq. Ft.) Year to Date Full Year Figure 5: Current Quarter ( s Sq. Ft.) -. MSF Overall Midtown South experienced, sq. ft. of negative net absorption during as new availabilities including three 1,-sq.-ft.-plus blocks of direct space offset the quarter s leasing activity. For the year, Midtown South experienced negative 1.17 million sq. ft. of net absorption. This was primarily caused by the negative 1.51 million sq. ft. of net absorption logged during the opening quarter of the year. With the exception of Hudson Square/ and Union Square, all Midtown South segments were in negative territory for the quarter, with the lion s share concentrated in, which experienced negative 15, sq. ft. of net absorption. Second Quarter 1

3 AVAILABILITY 18% Figure 6: Historical (% of Inventory) Overall 1.% Sublease.1% Figure 7: Current Quarter (% of Inventory) 1.% Overall 14% Q % Overall 15% 1% 9% 6% % % At year s end, the overall availability rate stood at 1.%, up basis points from the previous quarter s rate of 9.9% and up 16 basis points from year-end 1 s rate of 8.6%. In terms of segments,, at 1.6%, posted the market s highest availability rate, while Union Square, at 6.%, held the market s lowest rate. Of the 7.5 million sq. ft. of space available at the end of the year, 1%, or 1.5 million sq. ft., was sublease space, yielding a sublease availability rate of.1%. By comparison, the sublease availability rate stood at 1.8% at the end of 1 and 1.% at the end of 11. 1% 1% 8% 6% 4% % % AVERAGE ASKING RENTS $65 $6 $55 $5 $45 $4 $5 $ Figure 8: Historical ($ Per Sq. Ft.) Overall $64.58 Sublease $5.7 Figure 9: Current Quarter ($ Per Sq. Ft.) $64.58 Overall Q4 1 $55.14 Overall $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $ $ $1 $ $ Midtown South s overall average asking rent posted a net quarter-over-quarter increase of $.7, ending 1 at a new record-high of $64.58 per sq. ft. Though the overall average was up 17%, or $9.44, from Q4 1 s rate of $55.14 per sq. ft., most of the year-over-year increase took place during the first half of 1. Over the last six months, the average has only increased by %. In terms of segments, NoHo/SoHo, at $78.7 per sq. ft., posted the highest average asking rent, while Union Square, at $57.9 per sq. ft., held the market s lowest average.

4 TAKING DEAL INFORMATION Figure 1: Taking Rent Index 1% 91.% Figure 11: Concession Values* $7 Rental Abatement & T.I. Allowance 5,-4,999 SF 5,+ SF Raw Space Avg 95% 9% 85% 8% 75% Q4 1 Q1 11 Q 11 Q 11 Q4 11 Q1 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q4 1 Q1 1 Q 1 Q 1 Midtown South s Taking Rent Index posted a 48-basis-point net increase during, from 86.% in September to 91.% in December. Concession packages for new leases for raw space completed during the quarter included an average of $5 per sq. ft. in tenant improvement allowances and 6½ months of rent abatement. $6 $5 $4 $ $ $1 $5 Per Sq. Ft./6½ Months $ Months * Figures associated with plot points reflect the number of transactions completed with identical concession packages; Raw Space Average excludes highest and lowest values. INVENTORY AT A GLANCE Total Size No. of Submarket (Mil. Sq. Ft.) Buildings Hudson Square / NoHo / SoHo Park Avenue South / Madison Square Union Square TOTAL INVENTORY DEFINITIONS Availability Space that is being actively marketed and is available for tenant build-out within 1 months. Includes space available for sublease as well as space in buildings under construction. Asking Rent Asking gross face rents (excluding all concessions and tenant electric). Concession Values The combination of rent abatement and T.I. allowance. The graph is for new leases for raw space of 5, sq. ft. or greater consummated over the past months. Leasing Activity Total amount of square feet leased within a specified period of time, including pre-leasing and purchases of space for occupancy and excluding renewals. SURVEY CRITERIA Net Absorption The change in the amount of occupied square feet within a specified period of time, as measured by available square feet. Rent Abatement The time between lease commencement and rent commencement. Taking Rent Actual initial base rent in a lease agreement (excluding all concessions and tenant electric). Taking Rent Index Initial taking rents as a percentage of asking rents. This graph represents a 6-month rolling weighted average (for size and month). T.I. Tenant Improvements. Vacancy Unoccupied space available for lease. CBRE s market report analyzes fully modernized office buildings, which total 5,+ sq. ft. in Midtown South, including owner-occupied buildings (except those owned and occupied by a government or government agency). New construction must be available for tenant build-out within 1 months. CBRE assembles all information through telephone canvassing and listings received from owners, tenants and members of the commercial real estate brokerage community. 4

5 CONTACTS For more information regarding this MarketView, please contact: Matt Maison Manager Research and Analysis t: e: [email protected] Philip Russo Senior Director Corporate Communications Media Relations t: e: [email protected] FOLLOW CBRE GLOBAL RESEARCH AND CONSULTING CBRE Global Research and Consulting is an integrated community of preeminent researchers and consultants who provide real estate market research, econometric forecasting, and corporate and public sector strategies to investors and occupiers around the globe. Additional research produced by Global Research and Consulting can be found at DISCLAIMER 14 CBRE, Inc. CBRE statistics contained herein may represent a different data set than that used to generate National Vacancy and Availability Index statistics published by CBRE s Corporate Communications Department or CBRE s research and econometric forecasting unit, CBRE Econometric Advisors. Information herein has been obtained from sources believed reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to independently confirm its accuracy and completeness. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used are for example only and do not represent the current or future performance of the market. This information is designed exclusively for use by CBRE, and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE. 5