Sofia City Report H2 2014

Transcription

1 Sofia City Report H BG H2

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3 Sofia City Report H Economy/Investment Economy During the third quarter of 2014, GDP contracted by 0.4%, causing a modest growth of 1.5% for the entire year, expressing continued weakness of external demand. The moderate pace of export volumes throughout 2014 was heavily reliant on demand from the Eurozone, where growth remained sluggish. Furthermore, exports outside the EU have been weak, dropping 7% in 2014, weakened by the crisis in Ukraine and Russia. According to data published by the National Statistical Institute, the activity rate among the population aged between 15 and 64, has increased by 0.8% compared to the same period of the previous year. The unemployment rate has dropped to 10.8%, 120bps lower than Q Consumer spending & Unemployment Rate (%) Aside from the oil price decline, which is expected to encourage domestic investment and consumption in 2015, stronger Eurozone demand might lead to a rebound in export volumes. Falling oil prices are expected to keep inflation negative in 2015, supporting further rise in real incomes. The 3 month interbank rate is set to remain very low in 2015 averaging just 0.5% which should encourage consumers to borrow and lift consumption and demand e 2016f 2017f Unemployment rate Consumer spending The main driver of overall economic activities will be constrained by weak construction as new buildings need to meet more stringent EU regulations; subdued business investment and modest fiscal tightening. Oxford Economics forecasts that GDP growth will average 3.4% a year between , triggered by a pick-up in export growth which accounts for 70% of GDP a catch up in domestic demand and other unfavourable demographic trends. Source/Izvor: Oxford Economics, January 2015 During the third quarter of 2014, average monthly wages recorded a 2.3% increase compared to the same period of the previous year and stood at BGN 809 or 414. The average salary in Sofia during Q was BGN 1,070 or 547, representing a 1.7% decrease when compared to the same period of last year. GDP and Inflation (% change) e 2016f 2017f -2 GDP Inflation Source/Izvor: Oxford Economics, January 2015 Political Situation The risk facing the Bulgarian economy is expected to stay high over the medium term given the tense political and adverse demographic situation. The recent elections failed to give any party a clear majority, causing a minor coalition Bulgaria s fifth government in two years which may have limited policy flexibility. There is still a risk that rising social divisions could lead the government to abandon its fiscal consolidation plans. The ongoing economic crisis in the Ukraine and Russia will impact Bulgaria as sales to these two countries dropped by a third during the first ten months of Oxford Economics suggests that CPI inflation will be -0.4% in 2015 which should improve consumers purchasing power and raise spending growth. COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 2

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5 Sofia City Report H Office Market Supply During the second half of 2014, a limited levels of new office supply was recorded, causing a modest increase in stock by, almost 3%. After the delivery of Bulgaria Office Mall, which added approximately 25,000 m 2 to the market in the first half of the year, the end of the year witnessed the delivery of the third phase of Expo 2000, adding 6,500 m 2 of GLA, all of which is to be occupied by Raiffeisen Bank. The majority of future office stock will be accounted for by the completion of Capital Fort Business Centre, almost half of the current pipeline. The complex will significantly increase the A class office stock by offering 44,000 m 2 of office and commercial space with approximately 750 parking spaces. It will include two office buildings, a financial centre, conference halls, shops, a fitness centre and facilities for children. Office stock and supply in thousands (m 2 ) 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, The lower level of completions throughout the year has resulted in a declining vacancy rate which currently stands at around 22%. The lowest level of available office premises is noted in top performing buildings located in central city areas and Tsarigradsko Shosse, where the level of available space is below 10%. Traditionally, higher vacancy levels were noted in suburban areas, near to the city ring road and secondary residential areas. Rents Due to decreasing vacancy noted throughout the year, prime office rents noted an upward trend and currently stand at 13.5 m 2 /month, with the highest rental levels being achieved in the CBD area of downtown Sofia. Rents within the broader centre stand at between 9-11 m 2 /month while in the peripheral areas can be as low as 5 m 2 /month. Annual level of rents and yields Rents Yields Stock Annual supply Source: JLL, January 2014 Source: JLL, January 2014 Demand In the second half of the year, market activity was dominated by the relocation of existing occupiers as well as the expansion of their current premises. Furthermore, the country is witnessing more market entries from abroad. Consequently, this has reflected a significant increase in net absorption when compared to previous years, with the highest level of activity noted since the prerecession period. The most active sector remained to be IT, followed by the BPO and SSC sector. Investment market Following modest activity over recent years, 2014 was noticeable for the growing interest from predominantly domestic investors. The highest interest was noted for opportunistic transactions, including distressed assets marketed by banks and other financial institutions. In the second half of the year, Business Park Sofia building A was acquired by the BREF REIT fund for 4.7millon. In addition, two more office buildings were acquired during the second half of the year, both in Tsarigradsko Shose boulevard which amounted to around 38 million. COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 3

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7 Sofia City Report H Retail Market Supply In the second half of the year, the retail market witnessed quite intensive activity driven by new supply, particularly in Sofia, where new supply has caused a 30% increase in shopping centre stock. The completion of Mega Mall Sofia in September, developed by Real4You in the Lyulin district, added 24,000 m 2 to the retail market. Furthermore, the delivery of Sofia Ring Mall (69,000 m 2 ), developed by Fourlis Group and Danaos Group, resulted in the second largest shopping center completion in the country after Paradise center s completion in Upon its opening, Sofia Ring Mall was 65% leased. Shopping centre stock and annual supply in Bulgaria 900, , , , , , , , ,000 0 Source: JLL, January 2015 Demand Throughout 2014, healthy occupier demand was noted for the best performing malls in Sofia but, vacancy remains high across the board. We expect the secondary malls to continue witnessing increasing vacancy levels. Retailers were mainly concentrated on major projects in large cities such as Sofia, Burgas, Stara Zagora and Varna Stock New Supply After the Delhaize group and Praktiker sold its operations to local investors AP Mart and Videolux Holding respectively, Austrian retail chain Baumax has sold its operations to local investor Headus JSC. Market entrants Retail scheme Dead Sea Paradise center BCBGMAXAZRIA Paradise center Mango* The Mall Casa Bugatti (mono brand store) Paradise center *previously left the market in 2013 Rents With the delivery of new shopping centres, prime rental levels are facing further downward pressure. We expect this to continue over the next 12 months as retailers continue to focus on the best performing and recently opened schemes, causing potential increasing vacancy elsewhere. Due to increasing demand and high occupancy noted in 2014, rents for retail units in Vitosha Boulevard have recorded an increase and currently range between m 2 /month. Investment market Throughout the year, the retail segment was quite dynamic and increased investor interest was noted. In the first half of the year, City Centre Sofia was acquired by Revetas Capital Advisors LLP, with plans to renovate and update the concept and tenant mix and add it to the retail chain Park Centers. Furthermore, the successful reopening of Panorama Mall in Pleven, pointed out the opportunity for investors to restructure unsuccessful projects in less saturated markets. At the end of the year, there was reported interest in the acquisition of Plaza West shopping, which is under construction. On the back of significant investment, the busiest shopping street, Vitosha Boulevard, is expected to become the expansion focus point of various international brands in the upcoming period. This was reflected with the opening of a new H&M store in the former Unicredit retail banking and office building, joining the likes of Zara and Adidas to have flagship stores on the high street. COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 4

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9 Sofia City Report H Market Practice Leasing Market Practice Lease length Average lease length is 5 years, 3 5 years are common in the city centre and 5 (rarely 7) years on the outskirts In a few cases longer leases can be agreed 3 year break options are becoming more common Payment Terms Rents are quoted in and paid monthly in advance in either or RSD according to the exchange rate on the day of the payment Rental Deposit It is common to agree on a cash deposit or bank guarantee equal to 3 months rent for all types of premises (office, retail and industrial) Indexation is annually in line with European CPI Other Charges Service and energy charges (Utilities and direct consumption are paid separately)(offices and industrial) Service charges and marketing costs (retail) Insurance The landlord covers costs of building insurance (recovered by service charges). The tenant covers insurance of own premises, contents and civil liabilities Incentives Offered by the landlords in form of 3 month rent free period, fit-out contributions and free of charge additional parking space COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 5

10 JLL Office Mihajla Pupina Boulevard 10L Belgrade Serbia Phone number Fax number Contacts Andrew Peirson Managing Director SEE Region Jana Golubović Research Analyst SEE Region Sofia City Report H SEE Region COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. We would like to be told of any such errors in order to correct them.