Warsaw Office MarketView

Transcription

1 Warsaw Office MarketView H1 213 CBRE Global Research and Consulting OFFICE STOCK 4. M SQ M OFFICE VACANCY 1.5% OFFICE TAKE-UP 334, SQ M COMPLETION 152, SQ M UNDER CONSTRUCTION 7.8% Y-O-Y GENERAL OVERVIEW Hot Topics POLISH ECONOMY INVESTMENT MARKET 1 Despite a general economic slowdown, the office market in Warsaw has been performing very well. Total office leasing activity in H1 213 reached 334, sq m, almost 15% higher than in the corresponding period last year. The strong level of speculative construction has triggered an increase of vacancy rate, which exceeded 1% at the end of the last quarter. Prime office rents are under downward pressure both in the city centre and non-central locations. The H1 213 investment volume exceeded EUR 1.1 billion with the office share equating to 56%. Prime office yields have compressed to 6.15%, reflecting a growing gap between prime and secondary assets. Warsaw Economy H1 213 Population in agglomeration 3, Warsaw GDP growth 213* 1.4% Workplace-based headcount employment* 1,24, Average gross salary (EUR) 1,225 Unemployment rate 4.9% Registered companies 358, Source: GUS, *Oxford Economic, 213 The Polish economy remains strongly influenced by the general slowdown observed across the European region. The EU is still struggling with the recession and fiscal consolidation, along with slow GDP growth, holding back the development pace of the whole region. GDP growth in Poland, after hitting a cyclical low at.5% in Q1 213 yearover-year, is predicted to reach.8% in Q This would suggest the beginning of a gradual return on the growth path for the Polish economy. The GDP growth for the whole 213 is predicted to reach.8%. At the beginning of July, the Polish Monetary Policy Council decided to cut the level of interest rates by a further 25 bp taking the reference rate down to 2.5% and declared the end of the current easing cycle. Never before, in the history of post-1989 Poland has the level of interest rates been so low. Nevertheless, the CPI index (at.5% in May 213) is still below its target value, mostly driven by the decline of energy and fuel prices. Last month of Q2 213 brought a significant, 3% growth in industrial output and a reduction in the unemployment rate (to 13.2%) which were both meaningful factors in the economic performance of Q2 213, suggesting that the forecasted rebound should be registered in the second half of the year. Total investment volume in the commercial property sector reached in excess of EUR 1.1 billion in 34 transactions in H This figure shows a significant growth of 34% in comparison to the corresponding period of 212. In H1 213, offices remained the most popular asset among investors, representing a 56% share of the transaction volume, followed by retail and industrial with a 24% and 19% share respectively. The largest transaction in H1 213 was recorded in the retail sector - the disposal of the remaining shares of Zlote Tarasy to Unibail Rodamco. Other important deals concerned office schemes New City (EUR 127 million) and Senator (EUR 12 million) bought by Hines and Union Investment respectively. The most meaningful industrial transactions involved the disposal of 5% of the shares in the Prologis Portfolio to Norges Bank (EUR 1 million). Prime assets remained of major interest in H1 213, although investors are showing a growing appetite for noncentral locations and secondary schemes with asset management potential. Yields remain stable with a gradual compression noted in the office sector. Prime office, retail and industrial yields are estimated at 6.15%, 5.9% and 7.5% respectively.

2 F 214F H1 213 Warsaw Office MarketView OFFICE SUPPLY The supply side of the office market in Warsaw remains strong. In Q2 213, modern stock increased by 76, sq m in 5 buildings to exceed 4 mln sq m in total. The largest schemes completed in H1 213 included Konstruktorska Business Centre (48, sq m) by HB Reavis, followed by T-mobile Office Park (36, sq m) by Ghelamco. Most of the new developments are located in the non-central areas, mostly in SW or US zones. Since the beginning of 213 only one project was delivered in the City Centre Plac Bankowy 1 (4, sq m). That should change in the second part of the year with such schemes as Atrium 1 (16, sq m) to be completed in the central Warsaw. WARSAW SUPPLY (sq m) City Centre 4, 3, 1, Non Central Although credit procedures remain conservative and financing is reserved only for the pre-leased projects, the amount of the office space under construction remains high. Developers, being aware of the increased tenants activity, commonly decide to launch their investments speculatively, securing pre-let agreements during the construction works. In the end of Q2 there was 562, sq m of office space under construction in Warsaw with 154, sq m scheduled for delivery by the end of the year. In total, the office market in Warsaw is expected to grow by almost 2% by the end of 215. However, the market remains highly concentrated five biggest schemes comprise almost 5% of the constructed space. LARGEST OFFICES COMPLETED IN H1 213 Konstruktorska Business Centre (US) T-mobile office park (US) LARGEST SCHEMES PLANNED FOR H2 213 In the long term, there are a number of towers planned in the City Centre, mostly in its western part, including the Warsaw Spire (1, sq m) under construction by Ghelamco, to be delivered in 214/215 and Q22 (52, sq m) by Echo Investment, to be commenced in the next months. Plac Unii (US) Miasteczko Orange (SW) 2 Only 32% of the developed space in Warsaw has already been pre-leased. Nevertheless, the best new office schemes are being delivered with a minor percentage of vacant space. This also translates into in a high level of market absorption that reached over 7, sq m in the H It is expected that the total absorption in 213 should exceed the level registered a year before, driven mostly by a high activity of tenants. OFFICE ABSORPTION (sq m) Net absorption (sq m) Net absorption forecast (sq m) 3, 25, 15, 1, 5, F 214F

3 OFFICE DEMAND & RENTS The total volume of leasing transactions in H1 213 amounted to 334, sq m, representing a robust, 12% increase in comparison to the corresponding period last year. It is expected that the whole of 213 might bring another record in terms of the amount of office leasing activity in Warsaw. The activity level of office occupiers remains strong. Most tenants use the opportunity to expand the leased area during the renegotiation or relocation process. Nevertheless, cost reduction seems to remain the major demand driver. Occupiers are fully aware of the increased competition among developers. In many cases, they can achieve significantly better financial conditions and improve the technical standard of their offices at the same time by relocating to a new building. Furthermore, companies are tending to move out from the central locations and are looking for flexible, customized offices in business parks located in the fringe of the city centre or in further, noncentral locations. The largest transactions in H1 213 included: a new agreement of Urzad Rejestracji Lekow (13, sq m) in Ochota Office Park, renewal of BNP Paribas (11, sq m) in Trinity Park II as well as the renewal and expansion of Play (9,6 sq m in total) in Marynarska Business Park. WARSAW LEASING ACTIVITY (sq m) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 8, 6, 4, TAKE-UP BY TYPE ( sq m) IN H1 213 New Deals 6% 1% Renewals 16% Pre-lets 46% Expansions H1 213 Warsaw Office MarketView In H1 213, as much as 46% of the leased space was newly occupied, while 31% was accounted for by renegotiations. 16% of the leasing activity was attributable to pre-lets. The average lease size oscillates around 1, sq m, although the majority of the new offices do not exceed 5 sq m, particularly in the central locations. 31% Owner Occupations The overall Warsaw office vacancy rate surged to 1.5% at the end of H The majority of available space is located in Mokotow (US) and Jerozolimskie (SW). The vacancy rate is expected to gradually increase throughout the next months, as the number of speculative projects increases. WARSAW RENTS (EUR/sq m/month) H Outlook Central Business District Prime Headline Since the beginning of the year prime headline rents have noted a slight decrease and are currently estimated at EUR /sq m/month in the CBD. In non-central locations, headline rents for the best projects amount to EUR /sq m/month. The overall average office rent in Warsaw oscillates around EUR 17/sq m/month. Due to a number of new deliveries and a growing vacancy rate the rental level is currently under downward pressure, particularly in areas with the highest number of competing projects. Typical offers include a rent-free period, up to 1.5 months for each year of the lease as well as a landlords contribution to fit-out and other capital costs. Prime Effective Non Central Zones Prime Headline Prime Effective

4 H1 213 Warsaw Office MarketView WARSAW OFFICE MAP W N CBD CCF E US SW LS SE 4 OFFICE ZONES STOCK (sq m) VACANCY RATE CENTRAL LOCATIONS 1,287, 9.9% CBD - Central Business District 51, 11.4% CCF - City Centre Fringe 786, 8.9% NON-CENTRAL LOCATIONS 2,724, 1.8% E East (Praga) 172, 9.8% LS Lower South (Pulawska) 176, 13.% N North (Zoliborz) 135, 9.% SE South East (Wilanow & Sadyba) 188, 2.2% SW South West (Jerozolimskie & Okecie) 66, 15.6% US Upper South (Mokotow) 1,15, 1.5% W West (Wola) 288, 6.4% TOTAL 4,11, 1.5%

5 H1 213 Warsaw Office MarketView RESEARCH DEFINITIONS Prime Rent Represents the top open-market tier of rent that could be expected for a unit of standard size (commensurate with demand in each location), of the highest quality and specification and in the best location in a market at the survey date. The Prime Rent should reflect the level at which relevant transactions are being completed in the market at the time, but need not be exactly identical to any of them, particularly if deal flow is very limited or made up of unusual one-off deals. If there are no relevant transactions during the survey period, the quoted figure will be more hypothetical, based on an expert opinion of market conditions. Headline Rent - The headline rent represents the 'gross' rent that is paid by the tenant. That is the rent that they start to pay at the end of any rent free period that they also negotiate as part of the letting and making no deduction to reflect the value of any other incentives that they might have negotiated. Effective Rent - The net effective rent is the headline rent less an allowance to reflect incentives that have been granted. Take-up / Total Leasing Activity (TLA) Represents the total floor space, including renewals, known to have been let or pre-let, sold or pre-sold to tenants or owner-occupiers during the survey period. Total Modern Stock Represents the total completed A and B class space (occupied and vacant) in the private and public sector at the survey date. Includes owner occupied (OO) space. Vacant Space Rate Represents the percentage ratio of total Vacant Space to Total Modern Stock. Absorption - Represents the change in occupied stock within a market during the survey period. Prime Yield represents the net yield that an investor would receive when acquiring a grade/class A building in a prime location (for offices in the CBD, for example), which is fully let at current market value rents. Prime Yield should reflect the level at which relevant transactions are being completed in the market at the time but need not be exactly identical to any of them, particularly if deal flow is very limited or made up of unusual one-off deals. If there are no relevant transactions during the survey period a hypothetical yield should be quoted, and is not a calculation based on particular transactions, but it is an expert opinion formed in the light of market conditions, but the same criteria on building location and specification still apply. The net yield does not include any transaction costs. CONTACTS For more information about Polish property markets please contact: CBRE Poland Research & Consulting: Joanna Mroczek Director t: e: joanna.mroczek@cbre.com Konrad Heidinger Consultant t: e: konrad.heidinger@cbre.com CBRE Poland Office Agency: Lukasz Kaledkiewicz Director Landlord Representation t: e: lukasz.kaledkiewicz@cbre.com Daniel Bienias Director Tenant Representation t: e: daniel.bienias@cbre.com + FOLLOW US GOOGLE+ FACEBOOK Research and Consulting This report was prepared by the CBRE Poland Research & Consulting Team which forms part of CBRE Global Research and Consulting a network of preeminent researchers and consultants who collaborate to provide real estate market research, econometric forecasting and consulting solutions to real estate investors and occupiers around the globe. Disclaimer 5 CBRE sp. z o.o. confirms that information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt their accuracy, we have not verified them and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about them. It is your responsibility to confirm independently their accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE.