Automotive, and Director, AVICENNE ENERGY +33()1 4778 46 Presentation Outline The rechargeable battery market in 214 The Li-ion battery value chain Li-ion battery material market 214-225 Forecasts & conclusions
Million HEV powered by LIB Number of EV sold worldwide ( Million) AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS HEV powered by Lithium ion battery forecasts from 28 to 214 EV sold, in million units, worldwide, 21-22 2,5 2 IIT 27 IIT 28 5 4 IIT (MARCH 211) DEUTSCHE BANK (212) 1,5 IIT 29 3 IIT (MARCH 21) 1 IIT 21 2 ROLAND BERGER (211),5 REALITY AVICENNE 27 1 ROLAND BERGER (212) AVICENNE 27-212 AAB (212) 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 21 215 22 Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 27, 28, 29, 21 & 211 2
Tons of cathode / Year $/Wh Million Units / year Million Units/Year THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) 2 Li-ion 15 NiMH 1 5 2 214 5 4 3 2 1 Portable PC sold per Year (Million) Li-ion 23 M Tablets 17 M Portable PCs 2 214 Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year 12 1 3 2,5 Li-ion 1865 cell price ($/Wh) 8 2 6 1,5 4 2 1,5 2 214 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 215 2 214 3
MWh THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 199-215 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry investments 7 6 5 4 Others (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion 3 NiMH 2 1 NiCD 199 2 21 212 213 214 215 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 215 215: Estimations 4
199 2 21 212 213 214 215 199 2 21 212 213 214 215 MWh MWh THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 199-215 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (9% market share) 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Others (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 215 215: Estimations 5
199 2 25 21 213 214 215 199 2 25 21 213 214 215 Billion US $ Billion US$ THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 199-215 6 BILLION US$ in 214 Pack level 1 5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (199-214) 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 Others (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD 6 5 4 3 2 OTHERS AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRIAL E-BIKES POWER TOOLS PORTABLE 1 Lead Acid 1 SLI SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, ), data collection & handy terminals, POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools INDUSTRIAL MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear, AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators 1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors ) not included Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 215 215: Estimations 6
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET IN 214: US $ 6 BILLION Battery market in 214 (M$) Others SLI Automotive Portable Other Applications Marine Medical devices Wheelchair Medical Cart 7 6 5 SLI 18 16 14 12 Other Applications Marine Medical devices Wheelchair Medical Cart Other Stationary Other Stationary Seismic ESS Other Stand-by UPS Telecom Other Motive 4 3 2 Automotive Portable US $ 2 Billion for other applications 1 8 6 Seismic ESS Other Stand-by UPS Telecom Forklift Power Tools E-Bikes 1 4 2 Other Motive Forklift Power Tools E-Bikes Lead Acid LIB 1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors ) not included Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 215 7
2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 M Wh M Wh LI-ION IN 214 MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK 5 4 M cells 46 MWh 13 6 M$ (2) 6 5 4 3 2 1 - Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2-214 (1) CAGR 24/214 +21 % per year in Volume +14% per year in value 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 - Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2-214 (1) Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others (1) 215 estimation data (2) Cell level Tablets Power Tools Camcorders Digital Camera Video Games MP3 Toys Auto Household devices E-bikes Others 8
2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 M $ M $ LI-ION IN 214 MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK 5 25 M cells 45 MWh 13 3 M$ (2) 16 14 12 1 Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2-214 (1) CAGR 24/214 +2 % per year in Volume +14% per year in value 12 1 8 Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2-214 (1) 8 6 4 2-6 4 2 Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others (1) 215 estimation data (2) Cell level Automotives Tablets Power tools Camcorders Digital camera MP3 Games E-Bikes Others 9
1Q 9 2Q 9 3Q9 4Q 9 1Q 1 2Q 1 3Q1 4Q 1 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q11 4Q 11 M cells /month M cells /Year Over supply Ratio BATTERY PRICE IS DECREASING DRASTICALLY In 1 Years 8% price decreasing despite a fluctuating Co price Average LIB cell price ($/Wh) 1,,8,6,4,2, 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Cylindrical Prismatic Laminate Production capacity 29/211: from 15 to 25 M cells/month 3 25 2 15 1 5 BAK ATL Lishen E-One LG SDI MAXELL SONY PANASONIC SANYO Note- Q4 214: Cylindrical:,17 $/Wh ; Laminates:,3$/Wh 1865 oversupply ratio is decreasing thanks to TESLA 3 2 5 2 1 5 1 5 - Standard Demand Production Capacity TESLA Oversupply ratio 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 1
LI-ION VALUE CHAIN MARKET DEMAND CATHODE 15 OOO T in 214 Revenues: 2,5 B$ CAGR 4/14: +16% ANODE 57 T Revenues:,8 B$ CAGR 3/13: +14% ELECTROLYTE 44 T Revenues:,68 B$ CAGR 4/14 : 2% CELL MANUFACTURERS Revenues: 13,6 B$ Gross margin: <1% PACK MANUFACTURERS Revenues: 19,6 B$ Gross margin: <1% SEPARATOR 695 M m² Revenues: 1,15 B$ CAGR 4/14 : 18% BINDER 7 1 Tons Revenues:,2 B$ CAGR 8/13 : 15% ANCILLARY Revenues:,7 B$ 11
2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Tons CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS NEEDS BY CHEMISTRY SUPPLY Cathode active materials for LIB in Tons, 2-214 (Demand) 12 1 8 6 4 2 - LEADERS: LFP LMO NCA NMC LCO LCO >45 KT (214) NMC 1 > 35 KT (214) Others 3% Other China 13% PULEAD 9% Shan Shan 9% L&F 14% Internal 2% Nichia 12% Umicore 15% Easpring Reshine 6% 1% B&M 7% NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: SUMITOMO 16% TODA 4% Other China 8% Reshine 3% ShanShan 8% NKS 4% L&F 6% Nichia 11% Umicore 24% Others 5% Internal 11% LMO > 18 KT (214) LFP > 1 KT (214) Qiannyun 15% Yuan Yuan 4% Others 6% Reshine 8% Shan Shan 9% Nichia Corp 7% JGC 17% Nippon denko 8% Chinese local 26% 1- Including NCA Others 21% BTR 2% Zhuoneng 6% Pulead 13% STL 11% INTERNAL 29% CLARIANT 8% ALEEES 1% ( ) 12
Tons CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL FORECASTS 2-225 Cathode active materials 2-225 - Tons 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-2 25 21 215 22 225 LCO NMC NCA ASSUMPTIONS: Portable devices: 213-225: +11% per year in volume HEV 4,8 M HEV/year in 22-35% LIB 6,8 M HEV in 225 9% LIB P-HEV,4 M P-HEV/year in 22,,7 M in 225 1% LIB EV 1M EV/year in 22, 1,5M/year in 225 1% LIB Industrial & stationary 213-225: +16% per year 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % LMO LFP China (%) Cathode active materials in 214: > 1 Tons NCA 9% LFP 1% LMO 2% NMC 25% LCO 36% Cathode active materials in 225: > 3 Tons LMO 9% LFP 26% NCA 14% LCO 26% NMC 25% Assumption: Tesla keep NCA chemistry and have a relative success (2 EV sold per year in 225 TESLA forecast 5 ) LFP part could be higher thanks to explosion of Chinese EV market 13
26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Tons ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS > 55 TONS IN 214 LIB Anode Materials Source: A. Jossen, IRES 27 LIB Anode Materials 1,2 1,,8,6,4,2, 5 1 15 2 25 Source: Sanyo, March 211 Source: Hitachi Chemical LIB Anode market, (Tons) 6 5 4 3 2 1 LTO Si or Sn Type Amorphous Carbon Meso-Phase Artificial Graphite Natural Graphite 14
ANODE FOR LIB IN 214 Natural graphite become a commodity Others TOSHIBA A123 BAK ATL Maxell Lishen BYD LGC SDI PANASONIC SONY Note: MCMB: Mesocarbon Microbeads LEADERS: % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Carbon for LIB anodes by type (214) Natural Graphite 67% Artificial Graphite 24% ARTIFICIAL MCMB NATURAL Amorphous METAL LTO MCMB 2% Amorphous 5% Si or Sn Type 1% LTO 1% Capacity (/g) Capacity (/cc) Hard Carbon Cyclability ++ + Source: Hitachi Chemical NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: Soft Carbon Graphite 4 mah/g 25 mah/g 325-375 mah/g ++ + Power ++ + Stability ++ + Precursors COST 212- >22 Petroleum Pitch, Resin, cellulose, wood, coconuts 3 -> 25 $/kg Petroleum coke 25->2 $/kg Natural or petroleum coke 15 -> 1 $/kg SUPPLIERS KUREHA HITACHI HITACHI BTR & many others ( ) 15
Mm² SEPARATOR MARKET MAJOR PLAYERS In February 215, ASAHI announced that they will acquire all Polypore shares in the Energy Storage segment: Asahi Kasei to pay around $2.2billion to purchase Polypore s battery separator business Separator market in volume (Mm²) by suppliers CAGR 4/14: +16% 8 7 6 5 4 3 Senior Green Jinhui Sumitomo SK UBE TORAY Separators market shares in 214 in volume > 65 M m² SUMITOMO 5% TONEN 21% ENTEK 3% SK 12% Jinhui TDK 2% 2% Fengfan 1% Other Wet 3% CELGARD 11% 2 1 - CELGARD ASAHI ASAHI 25% Other Dry 3% UBE 5% Green 3% Senior 4% LEADERS: NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses Evonik, TEIJIN, HIFUTURE, UBE-MAXELL ( ) 16
Tons ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS 44 TONS IN 214 LIB electrolyte market, Tons, CAGR 24/214: +23% 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 LEADERS: 5 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 Cellular Portable PC Tablets Power tools E-bikes HEV PHEV EV Others Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huang JINNIU LIB electrolyte supplier, market share in 214 ShanShan 8% Soulbrain 5% Tinci 6% Cap Chem 15% Jinniu 8% NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: Others 4% Mitsui 3% UBE 4% GTHR 14% Note: (1) GTHR: Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong Mitsubishi Chem 13% In-house 9% Tomiyama 3% PANAX-ETEC 8% 17
25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Tons LIB ELECTROLYTE MARKET 25-214 Electrolyte maker sales 25-214 7 GTHR 6 5 4 3 PANAX (2) Capchem Mitsubishi In-House Jinniu Shanshan 2 1 Soulbrain Ube Mitsui Tomiyama - BASF (Merck, Novolyte) Ube Mitsubishi In-House Tomiyama PANAX-ETEC Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong Mitsui BASF (Merck, Novolyte) Jinniu Capchem Shanshan Soulbrain (1) Full electrolyte formulation in-house (2) Panax-Etec bought Samsung Chiel activities in 21 18
CELLULAR PHONES FORECASTS 21-225 Cellular phones demand (M Units) CAGR 21-225: +6% 4 OTHERS 3 2 1 - INDIA ASIA CHINA JAPAN EUROPE USA Cellular Phones market Drivers Emergent market Lam. 5% Renewal ratio increase Cyl. 25% Pris. 25% LIB cell format (Volume) 214 Smartphone penetration increase LIB cells demand 214-225 Polymer penetration: 5% -> 75% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses Polymer Prismatic LIB cells for cellular phones trends Laminates ratio increase Increase of Thickness Increase of >14 mah capacity 19
PORTABLE PCS FORECASTS 21-225 Portable PCs demand (M Units) 214-225 Almost stable 25 2 15 1 5 Emerging Mature Pris. 1% Lam. 19% Portable PCs market trends Mature market stable or decreasing Growth driven by Emerging market Cyl. 8% LIB cell format (Volume) 214 Ultrabook is increasing (2 (1) to 6% in 213 (2) ) ASP decreasing (<499$ Portable PCs increase from 25% in 21 to 33% in 212 Source: IDC, Gartner, AVICENNE Energy LIB cells demand 214-225 Polymer penetration: 2% -> 4% 1% 8% 6% Laminate 4% Prismatic 2% Cylindrical % (1) Samsung & AVICENNE (2) Intel LIB cells for portable PCs trends Thinner cells Polymer penetration increasing from 7% in 21 to 28% in 225 > 28 mah for Premium/corporate 2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging market Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2
2 25 21 213 214 215 22 225 MWh M cells/year 225 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES 2-225 LIB market, MWh, by application (3C) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 CAGR 14-25: + 1% Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses Others Household Toys MP3 Video Games Digital Camera Camcorders Cordless Phones Tablets Portable PCs Cellular Phones 2-225 LIB market, M cells, by form factor (3C) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 25 21 215 22 225 Li-P Li-ion Pr Li-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 213 (1) (1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 213 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4 21
CO2 Emission (g/km) 1973 25 27 29 211 213 215 Crude Oil Price - US $ / Barrel Gasoline Price US$ / Gallon WHY X-EV? MAJOR DRIVER: CO 2 regulation worldwide: From 213 to 214 Oil price decrease but HEV sales increase by 5%, P-HEV by 3% and EV by 6% 19 18 17 Price of the WTI 1 barrel of oil, US $ 12 1 3,5 3 8 2,5 6 2 4 1,5 1 2,5 4 16 15 Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html 14 13 12 11 1 Petroleum consumption worldwide 196-23 Million barrel per day 15 1 5 9 212 215 22 Europe USA Japan China Source: Energy Information Administration, US Government Note 1 WTI: West Texas Intermediate 22
2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Penetration of hybrids in the globale sales Million HEV WORLDWIDE IN 214 2 M HEV Growth 213-214: +5% From 1,9 M to 2 M HEV HEV sold per year, M units, worldwide, 2-214 Penetration of hybrids in the global sales, 2-214 2,5 2, 1,5 TOYOTA OTHERS 3% 25% 2% JAPON 15% 1, 1%,5, 5% % USA EUROPE Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY Micro hybrid not included 23
P-HEV & EV SALES 21-214 (YEARLY) 25 2 15 1 5 P-HEV sales +28% 21 211 212 213 214 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses EUROPE 22% CHINE 5% JAPON 25% Others Volvo Mitsubishi Ford Toyota Others OTHERS 7% 7% US 25% US 41% 25 2 15 1 5 GM Volt, Ampera EV sales +58% CHINA 31% 21 211 212 213 214 EUROPE 26% Others CHINA VW BMW Honda Toyota Tesla Renault Smart Ford MITSUBISHI NISSAN JAPAN 11% 24
LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS 29-215 1-12 B$ WORLDWIDE >5 GWh invest from 211 to 214) < 7 B$ invested from 214 to 217 by TESLA (5), BYD (1,2), ATL (1) Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing ATL (214-217) BYD (213-215) TESLA (214-217) LiTec GmbH Panasonic EV SK Energy Mitsubishi H.I. NEC Tokin AESC Japon Hitachi Vehicle Energy SAFT SAFT US BAK Lishen Nissan-Renault (Port) Blue Energy Toshiba Nissan - Renault (UK) LG Chem Rusnano-Thunder Sky Lithium Energy Japan Hitachi Vehicle Energy SB Limotive GS YUASA Dow Kokam Nissan-Renault (Fr) Ener1 Sanyo A123 JCI LG Chem BYD Sony NISSAN Motor US PANASONIC 214 217 TESLA, ATL, BYD Investments: 15 $ / kwh Average 212-214 Investments: 25 $ / kwh M$ 2 4 6 TESLA Plant, Nevada, Feb 215 TESLA GIGA FACTORY, Feb 215 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 215 25
Aircraft Automotive Mobile Background SAFETY ISSUES Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious safety concerns In the 8 s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit. CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projects Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid electrolyte. In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction starts -> heating & gasing -> fire ( Thermal runaway ) CONSEQUENCES: In 26, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of 4 million USD, more than there profit-to-date With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns: (1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode (2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing!) (3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company without any authorisation by Toyota) Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane s shell. CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing. 26
SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES Some technologies are already out of the game due to stability issues 27
TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS IN LIB INDUSTRY 28
BATTERY & POWER ELEC. COST IN EV 8,25-18,1 5-5,5-3 8, HV batt. Pack for EV 8,15-15,1 HV batt. CELL for EV Overall HV battery LV cell battery pack 1-4 5-4 Packaging material Cooling Syst 1, - 2,5 Batt. Magt Syst 1,5-3, Batt. Packaging Manuf. 15-15 - 25 35 3-5 9-1,25 DC/DC converter Charger Generator Inverter Inverter Rectifier 15-35 HV Cables & Connectors 12 1 8 6 4 Power Elec Pack Manufacturing BMS Thermal Mgmt + packaging 2 Cell manu Active Hybrid 5 Volt Bluecar Leaf HEV P-HEV EV AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION Cell 29
LIB CELL BILL OF MATERIALS NISSAN LEAF BOLLORE BLUE CAR GM VOLT BMW ACTIVE HYBRID 5 AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION 3
Cell Pack Cell Pack Cell Pack $ / kwh $ / kwh LI-ION BATTERY COST 214-22 LIB cell average cost (36Ah pouch) (EV design ; LMO/NMC cathode) LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST FOR EV 35 3 25 Margin Warranty Overheads Sales & Adm R&D 6 5 4 Pack Cost Cell Manufacturing 2 Energy, utilities Direct labor 3 Other Materials 15 Depreciation Others 2 Separator 1 Separator Electrolyte 1 Electrolyte 5 Anode (1) Cathode (1) Anode (1) Active materials only 214 215 22 214* 215* 22* * For Production > 1 packs/year Cathode 31
Million cars Million cars EV, P-HEV, EV 225 FORECASTS Scenario 2: thanks to very high incentives, China could change the game S1: HEV, P-HEV & EV market forecasts up to 225 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1,9,25,135,35,17 2 2,2 1,4 3,2 1,5,65 21 214 215 22 225 5 EV P-HEV HEV S2: HEV, P-HEV & EV market forecasts up to 225 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1,9,13,17,27,16 1,9 2,1 1,75,38 3,2 1,5 1,3 1,1,62 21 214 215 22 225 5 EV in China P-HEV in China HEV in China EV P-HEV HEV 32
M Wh M Wh TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND 225 FORECASTS Scenario 2: thanks to very high incentives, China could change the game EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh) CAGR 214-225: +16% / S2:+22% 2 18 16 14 12 Total battery demand (MWh) CAGR 214-225: +11% / S2: +13% 2 18 16 14 12 1 1 8 6 4 2-25 21 215 22 225 NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV S2 (China Explosion) 8 6 4 2 2 25 21 215 22 225 NiCd NiMH except Auto LIB except Auto NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV S2 EV China Explosion 33
Million 35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN 22 Micro-hybrids car market 21-22 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Micro-hybrid car sold per year AVICENNE Optimistic Scenario JD Power Valeo Micro-hybrid batteries Powered today by Advanced lead acid batteries (sometimes in conjunction with super capacitors) LTO will also penetrate this market (Toshiba -> Suzuki) Panasonic develop new NiMH cell to adress the micro-hybrid market Advantages of micro-hybrid compare to HEV Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 1 times less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of 2% (4 times less) Much more impact on CO2 Battery Micro-hybrid Advanced lead acid Full HEV NiMH or LIB Cost ($) 3 3 Fuel saving 5% 2% 21 215 22 Million Vehicle sold per year in 22 35 3.5 34
HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID BATTERIES 21 215 STANDARD CAR 88.5% Batteries Lead acid Standard MICRO HYBRIDS 1% Advanced Lead acid MILD HEV.5% NiMH NiMH batteries FULL HEV 1% EV P-HEV Li-ion batteries 22 STANDARD CAR < 44% MICRO HYBRID > 5% FULL HEV 4% EV P-HEV 2% AFTER ULTRA BATTERY Li-ion Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells 35
> US$ 1 B > US$ 7 B OTHER APPLICATIONS 1 B$ POTENTIAL MARKET 1 Battery market in 212 (M$) 18 Other Applications Battery market in 22 (M$) 18 Marine Medical devices Wheelchair Medical Cart Other Stationary 16 14 12 16 14 12 Seismic 1 1 ESS Other Stand-by 8 8 UPS Telecom Other Motive Forklift Power Tools 6 4 2 6 4 2 E-Bikes Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 213 Lead Acid LIB Lead Acid LIB For Power tools, NiCd batteries are used rather than lead acid batteries 36 1- Pack level
LI-ION CELL & PACK MARKET DETAILS 214-225 Li-ion cell market (B$) 45 4 35 3 Portable: from 29 to 65 GWh Automotive: from 1 to 6 GWh / S2: 1 GWh Others: from 7 to 32 GWh Li-ion Pack market 1 (B$) 45 4 35 3 25 Others (2) 25 Others (2) 2 Automotive Portable 2 Automotive Portable 15 15 1 1 5 25 21 213 214 215 22 225 5 25 21 213 214 215 22 225 1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors ) not included 2- Others: Batteries for Power tools, E-bikes, Industrial, medical S2: Chinese EV market explosion Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis 214 37
MWh TAKEAWAYS 21-225 CAGR = +1% Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices (smartphones, tablets) For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMH In 212, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 6 B$ market in 215-11 B$ in 22 & 15 B$ in 225 EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 22 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 22 Micro-hybrid will achieve >5% Lead acid battery will be the first market in 225 in volume & value A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 15% in the next 15 years In 22, Energy storage will represent less than 5% of the total battery market RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET WORLDWIDE 2-225 38 GWh 28 GWh 2 21 22 225 25 B$ 575 GWh 775 GWh Others Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, 38 LIB 83 B$ 64 B$ 6B$ 54B$ NiMH NiCd Lead Acid > 1 B$ (Pack level) 4,3 2 25 21 213 214 215 22 225 Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-6%) NiMH (-6%) LIB for 3C (+1%) LIB for xev (+1%) LIB for Others* (+11%) Others (CAGR 214-225) 32 14 16 12 52
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