GHG-TransPoRD: reducing greenhouse gas emissions of transport beyond 2020: Linking R&D, transport policies and reduction targets

Transcription

1 GHG-TransPoRD: reducing greenhouse gas emissions of transport beyond 2020: Linking R&D, transport policies and reduction targets Findings on European R&D and GHG reduction potentials Dr. Wolfgang Schade Fraunhofer-ISI Coordinator of GHG-TransPoRD Angelo Martino Trasporti e Territorio Srl, TRT Seite 1

2 Agenda The GHG-TransPoRD project R&D and innovations in the transport sector GHG reduction potentials in road sector GHG reduction potentials in rail sector GHG reduction potentials in maritime sector Seite 2

3 Objective of GHG-TransPoRD Suggestion of an integrated strategy for the EU that links R&D policy for transport with a transport policy strategy such that the European GHG reduction targets for 2020 and 2050 can be met also for transport. Expected results: Reduction targets for transport R&D strategy Transport policy strategy Project framework Funded by European 7 th Research Framework Programme (~950 k ) Project duration 24 months (Oct. 1 st 2009 to Sept. 30 th 2011) Five project partners from five European countries Seite 3

4 Project steps of GHG-TransPoRD Analysis of R&D efforts in transport Analysis of innovation system and diffusion of innovations in transport sector Measures for GHG reductions (long list) Potentials of GHG reductions of measures (short list) Cost analysis of GHG reduction measures Scenarios and integrated assessment of R&D strategies and policy strategies Seite 4

5 R&D and innovations in the transport sector Seite 5

6 Structure of sectoral system of innovation ( Kuhlmann & Arnold, 2001) Demand Consumers (final demand) Producers (intermediate demand) Framework conditions Financial environment; taxation and incentives; propensity to innovation and entrepreneurship; mobility... Industrial System Large companies Intermediaries Education and Political l Research System System Professional education and Government training Mature SMEs Research institutes Brokers Higher education and research R&I policies New, technologybased firms Public sector research Governance Banking, venture capital IPR and information Infrastructure Innovation and business support Standards and norms Potential reach of public policies Seite 6

7 Low carbon automobile industry innovation system Market Demand Consumers (final demand) Producers (intermediate demand) Values Old / young Regulation Framework conditions Financial environment; taxation and incentives; propensity to innovation and entrepreneurship; mobility... Transport Infrastructure Lobby Network Intern national trad de of vehicle es Energy indust tries: power ge eneration, oil producers Industrial System Education and Research System Political System Vehicle producers Service operators Professional Auto majors Logistics / Services EU education and Government training R&D Departments Higher education National OEMs and research Government Knowledge Networks (e.g. Joint ventures) Niche companies (not small companies) Standards Subsidies and norms R&D support Innovation Infrastructure IPR and information Public sector research Banking, venture e capitala R&I policies Governance Climate and environment policy l policies (q quotas, CDM M, GATT) In nternationa Source: GHG-TransPoRD D1 Seite 7 Political impacts

8 R&D of European transport sector in the global context t Automotive manufacturers Automotive suppliers Commercial vehicles and trucks R&D investment ( bn) Sales ( bn) Number of employees (million) World EU27 World EU27 World EU , Aerospace and defence 'Transport' sector , All industries i ,897 5, Source: GHG-TransPoRD D1, based on EU Scoreboard 2009 (DG RTD-IPTS, 2009) (rounded numbers) Seite 8

9 Distribution of European automotive R&D efforts focus on GHG reductions Total R&D R&D for GHG reductions R&D - Other R&D activities (safety, comfort, etc.) R&D - GHG emissions i ~ 32bn reduction Conventional engines ( 5-6bn) 10-11bn Electric vehicles ( bn) Biofuels (ca. 0.4bn) Fuel cells ( bn) s Other GHG emission reduction technologies R&D - Air pollutant emissions reduction ~ 13.5bn Source: GHG-TransPoRD D1 Seite 9

10 European patents in hybrid and electric vehicles by country and peri od DE FR IT GB SE AT NL 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% FI RoEU27 Source: GHG-TransPoRD D1 Seite 10

11 Strategies to develop electric vehicles (EVs) (Status April 2010) Automotive manufacturer Automotive supplier Battery manufacturer Electricity supplier JV = Joint Venture Dong Energy Better Place Denmark JV Continental Enax JV HL Green Power Co. Hyundai JV Renault F.S.I. CEA Nissan NEC TOKIN Corp. JV AESC Vattenfall (e.g. Berlin) (Volvo, Sweden) LG Chem Hitachi General Motors Tesla Motors Valeo Michelin Honda JV Blue Energy A123 Systems Toyota EDF GS Yuasa SAIC Motor JV JV Panasonic Electric Vehicle Energy Panasonic Suzuki Sanyo Magna Int. FORD Saft Johnson Controls JV JV JV Li-Tec JV Lithium Energy Japan PSA Mitsubishi JV VARTA Microbattery BYD Volkswagen Daimler Evonik JV LIB 2015 BASF e-mobility Italy e-mobility Berlin Bosch Toshiba Source: GHG-TransPoRD D1 E.ON (e.g. Munich) BMW Enel RWE Samsung SDI JV SB LiMotive Cobasys Seite 11

12 Estimating GHG reduction potentials: energy framework Seite 12

13 Reference energy demand trend up to 2050 ( b y mod e i n PJ/year) GHG TransPoRD Energy Framework [PJ] Air Ship Rail Road Source: GHG-TransPoRD D2 Seite 13

14 Reference energy demand trend up to 2050 ( b y f uel t ype i n PJ/year) GHG TransPoRD Energy Framework 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 [PJ] Biofuel (road) Hydrogen Electricity (rail) Kerosene (air) CNG (car) LPG (car) Diesel (ship) Diesel (road & rail) Gasoline (road) Source: GHG-TransPoRD D Seite 14

15 GHG reduction potentials in road sector Seite 15

16 Example fact sheet explaining GHG reduction measures Aerodynamics and resistance summary Description The group of measures assigned to aerodynamics and resistance contains measures that aim at reducing the aerodynamic resistance, the mechanical resistance of tires and the friction within engines in passenger cars. Measures included Aerodynamics and resistance consists of a combination of five measures: improved aerodynamics (e.g. via smooth under flow or lower car bodies), reduced engine friction losses, low resistance tires (reducing energy wasted as heat), tire-pressure monitoring system (controlling if the tire pressure is efficient), low viscosity lubricants (decreasing the mechanical friction in engines) Field of influence Energy intensity Earliest implementation date Partially already implemented Relative CO EU27 7% for all passenger cars reduction 2050 EU27 9% for all passenger cars Applicability Measure is applicable on all new passenger cars. Absolute 2020 EU Mt CO 2 CO 2 EU Mt CO 2 reduction EU Mt CO 2 potential 2050 EU Mt CO 2 EU Mt CO 2 EU Mt CO 2 Feasibility High Maturity In process Cost 1,059 /Ton CO 2 saved Source: GHG-TransPoRD D2 Seite 16

17 GHG reduction potentials cars (long list) Nr. Measures / Technologies CO2 Reduction Min Max 1 Reduced mechanical friction components 0.4% 5.0% 2 Low viscosity lubricants 0.5% 4.0% 3 Low rolling resistance tires 2.0% 2.0% 4 Improved aerodynamics 1.5% 1.8% 5 Tire-pressure monitoring system 1.0% 1.0% 6 Substitution of fossil fuel by battery electric vehicles 7.8% 7.8% 7 Control mechanism for servo-steering 3.1% 5.0% 8 Electric power steering (EPS) 2.0% 3.0% 9 LED headlights 2.5% 10 Pneumatic brake booster 1.6% 2.5% 11 Intelligent fuel pumps 03% 0.3% 0.3% 12 Solar panels on roofs 17.0% 29.0% 13 High efficiency alternators 0.5% 2.0% 14 Intelligent battery sensor 1.5% 1.5% 15 CNG 16.7% 16.7% 16 LPG 9.0% 17 Electrohydraulic valve gear 10.0% 18 Variable compression ratio 5.0% 10.0% 19 Cylinder deactivation 2.1% 8.0% 20 Variable valve actuation 3.0% 7.0% 21 Start-stop system 3.0% 4.0% 22 Variable valve timing 1.0% 3.0% 23 Fuel quality sensor 1.2% 1.2% Source: GHG-TransPoRD D2 Nr. Measures / Technologies CO2 Reduction Min Max 24 Latent-heat storage 8.1% 8.1% 25 Intercooling 2.5% 2.5% 26 Dual cooling circuits 0.5% 2.0% 27 Exhaust heat recuperation 1.5% 1.5% 28 Cooling fluid shutdown system 1.0% 1.0% 29 Hybridtype: full 18.0% 22.0% 30 Hybridtype: mild 10.0% 11.0% 31 Brake energy recuperation 3.0% 3.0% 32 Hybridtype: plug-in 33 Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition 11.0% 25.0% 34 GDI with stratified charge (stoichiometric) i 8.0% 14.0% 35 GDI with stratified charge (lean burn) 4.3% 6.4% 36 GDI with homogenous charge (stoichiometric) 0.7% 5.0% 37 Piezo injectors 3.0% 3.0% 38 Further penetration of gasoline direct injection 39 Utilisation of lightweight design and materials 0.9% 20.0% 40 Weight reduction by minimising convenience features 4.9% 4.9% 41 Smaller capacity fuel tanks 2.0% 3.0% 42 Continuouse variable transmission 2.1% 9.0% 43 6-speed manual/automatic gearbox 2.5% 5.0% 44 Dual clutch transmission 4.0% 5.0% 45 Piloted gearbox 4.0% 4.0% 46 Optimisation of gear boxes 1.0% 2.0% Seite 17

18 GHG reduction potentials cars (short list): 2020 Injection Technology Electrical System Energy Supply Heat/Cooling Management Lightweight Construction Engine Control System Hybrid Vehicles Aerodynamics/Resistance CNG/LPG Battery Electric Vehicles Electrical l System Energy Demand Drive and Transmission Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles [Mt CO2] Source: GHG-TransPoRD D2, Remark: usage of biofuels was subject to separate analyses Seite 18

19 GHG reduction potentials cars (short list): 2050 Battery Electric Vehicles // Injection Technology Electrical System Energy Supply Hybrid Vehicles Lightweight Construction Heat/Cooling Management Engine Control System Aerodynamics/Resistance CNG/LPG Hd Hydrogen Fuel lcell llvehicles Electrical System Energy Demand Drive and Transmission 2050 Source: GHG-TransPoRD D [Mt CO2] // Seite 19

20 GHG reduction potentials in rail sector Seite 20

21 Overview of rail transport selected measures Re eduction po otential (%) Hybrid shunting 1 Supercapacitors 14 Regenerative braking 75 Aerodynamic efficiency Energy efficiency 41 Innovative bogie Friction control Light weight material Scope (%) Source: GHG-TransPoRD D2 Low Medium High Feasibility 21 Seite 21

22 Ranking of rail transport selected measures [Kton] CO 2 reductio on ,192 Energy efficient driving Regenerative braking Aerodynamic efficiency Supercapacitive energy storage Hybrid shunting locomotives , Light weight materials Friction control measure Innovative bogie ,560 1,406 1, Source: GHG-TransPoRD D Seite 22

23 CO2 reduction provided by rail transport measures The implementation of the selected measures to the rail sector allows reducing CO2 emissions of 10% by 2020 and 42% by 2050 within EU27, assuming that all measures could be contemporarily implemented. On total transport emissions, rail measures impact is 0.1% by 2020 and 0.6% by 2050 CO2 rail emissions [ton] CO2 saving Source: GHG-TransPoRD D Seite 23

24 GHG reduction potentials in maritime sector Seite 24

25 Overview of maritime transport selected measures Measure name Earliest introduction date Feasibility Policy measure Imo Indices In process High Technical measures A) Overall vessel design Lightweight materials Already implemented High Ship resistance Already implemented High B) Engine andpropulsion systems Contra rotating propeller Already implemented Medium Dual fuel engine Already implemented Medium Flettner rotor In process Low Sky sails system In process Low C) On board energy using systems Automation Already implemented High Waste heat recovery system Already implemented High D) Port and infrastructure Shoreside power at ports Already implemented High Source: GHG-TransPoRD D2 Seite 25

26 Ranking of maritime transport selected measures Shoreside power at ports Waste heat recovery system Automation Flettner rotor Sky sail systems Dual fuel engine CRP Ship resistance Lightweight materials 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% The impact of the selected measures ranges from <1% to 5% in relation with the maritime energy framework in 2020 and Source: GHG-TransPoRD D Seite 26

27 CO 2 reduction provided by maritime transport measures CO2 maritime ii emission i CO2 savings Source: GHG-TransPoRD D Kton CO 2 savings from maritime measures about: 5% in 2020 and 14% in Seite 27

28 Summary Road /C Cars Technically, CO2 emission reduction of -40% up to -45% until 2020 feasible In the long term (2050) even -60% up to -68% realistic (excluding EVs) Injection technology, electrical system (energy supply) and heat/cooling management bear highest reduction potentials until 2020 (~10% each) Battery electric vehicles could contribute CO2 reductions of -77% until 2050 (with power supply mix of reference scenario) Road / trucks bears smaller but also significant reduction potentials Rail sector can provide GHG reductions of -10% until 2020, and -42% until 2050 Maritime sector has potentials of -5% until 2020, and -14% until 2050 Absolute reduction potential of transport sector in order of -30% in 2020, up to -60% in 2050 Potentials would even be higher if electric power generation is shifted to zero GHG emissions by 2050 Seite 28

29 Contact Dr. Wolfgang Schade, Area Coordinator Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) Breslauerstr. 48, Karlsruhe, Germany Phone: Fax: Angelo Martino, Director Trasporti e Territorio Srl, TRT Via Rutilia, 10/8, Milano, Italy Phone: +39 (02) Fax: +39 (02) martino@trttrasportieterritorio.it tt t it i it Seite 29