The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends

Transcription

1 BATTERY SEMINAR Director, AVICENNE ENERGY Presentation Outline The rechargeable battery market in 214 The Li-ion battery value chain Li-ion battery material market Forecasts & conclusions

2 AGENDA The market in 214 by technology, applications & battery suppliers Li-ion battery value chain Raw materials market Supplier / customer relationship Raw material cost New entrants strategy Raw material road map 2-23 xev market in 213/214 xev forecasts up to 225 Could Lithium ion replace lead acid for industrial applications? Rechargeable battery market forecasts up to 225 2

3 Million HEV powered by LIB Number of EV sold worldwide ( Million) AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS HEV powered by Lithium ion battery forecasts from 28 to 214 EV sold, in million units, worldwide, ,5 IIT 27 5 IIT (MARCH 211) 2 IIT 28 4 DEUTSCHE BANK (212) 1,5 IIT 29 3 IIT (MARCH 21) 1,5 IIT 21 REALITY AVICENNE ROLAND BERGER (211) ROLAND BERGER (212) AVICENNE AAB (212) Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 27, 28, 29, 21 & 211 3

4 Tons of cathode / Year $/Wh Million Units / year Million Units/Year THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) 2 Li-ion 15 NiMH Portable PC sold per Year (Million) Li-ion 23 M Tablets 17 M Portable PCs Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year ,5 2 1,5 1 Li-ion 1865 cell price ($/Wh) 2, Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

5 MWh THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry investments Others (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, : Estimations 5

6 MWh MWh THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (9% market share) Others (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, : Estimations 6

7 Billion US $ Billion US$ THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET BILLION US$ in 214 Pack level 1 5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR ( ) Others (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD OTHERS AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRIAL E-BIKES POWER TOOLS PORTABLE 1 Lead Acid 1 SLI SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, ), data collection & handy terminals, POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools INDUSTRIAL MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear, AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators 1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors ) not included Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, : Estimations 7

8 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET IN 214: US $ 6 BILLION Battery market in 214 (M$) Others SLI 7 18 Other Applications Automotive Portable Other Applications Marine Medical devices Wheelchair Medical Cart 6 5 SLI Marine Medical devices Wheelchair Medical Cart Other Stationary Other Stationary Seismic ESS Other Stand-by UPS Telecom Other Motive Forklift Power Tools E-Bikes Automotive Portable US $ 2 Billion for other applications Seismic ESS Other Stand-by UPS Telecom Other Motive Forklift Power Tools E-Bikes Lead Acid LIB 1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors ) not included Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 215 8

9 Million cells WORLDWIDE BATTERY SALES BY CHEMISTRY, UNITS, The worldwide rechargeable battery market, Million cells, Which cell are we talking about? Front Edge Technology, Inc NiCd NiMH Li-ion 215: estimation data GS Yuasa International / Lithium Energy Japan 9

10 MWh WORLDWIDE BATTERY SALES BY CHEMISTRY, MWH, The worldwide rechargeable battery market, in volume, MWh, (CAGR): +16% NiCd: -2% per year NiMH: +6 per year Li-ion: +21% per year Li-ion NiMH NiCd - 215: estimation data 1

11 M$ WORLDWIDE BATTERY SALES BY CHEMISTRY, M$, The worldwide rechargeable battery market, in value, M$, CAGR):+12% NiCd: -6% per year NiMH: + 9% per year Li-ion: +14% per year Li-ion NiMH NiCd Note: Cell level 11

12 Lithium-Ion EACH BATTERY TECHNOLOGY HAS ITS SPECIFIC ABSOLUTE ADVANTAGES...On Advantage of... Lead Acid Nickel Cadmium NiCd Nickel Metal Hydride Lithium-Ion NiMH Conventional Laminate Lead Acid Nickel Cadmium NiCd Higher cyclability Voltage output Price Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Operating temperature range Self discharge rate Reliability (progressive extinction) Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Self discharge rate Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Voltage output Self discharge rate Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Voltage output Self discharge rate Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Self discharge rate Design characteristics Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Self discharge rate Design characteristics Nickel Metal Hydride NiMH Higher cyclability Voltage output Price Operating temperature range Higher cyclability Self discharge rate Price Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Operating temperature range Higher cyclability Voltage output Self discharge rate Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Operating temperature range Self discharge rate Design characteristics Conventional Laminate Higher cyclability Price Safety Recyclability Higher cyclability Price Operating temperature range Higher cyclability Price Safety Recyclability Operating temperature range Higher cyclability Price Price Safety Discharge rate Recyclability Volumetric energy density Higher cyclability Price Operating temperature range Higher cyclability Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density (potentially) Design characteristics Safety Price Absolute advantages Higher cyclability Price Operating temperature range Price Volumetric energy density Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Self discharge rate Voltage output Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Self discharge rate Voltage output Design characteristics 12

13 JAPANESE, CHINESE & KOREAN MARKET SHARE Japanese market share (value) decreasing: from 82 % of the market in 21 to < 4% in 214 9% 8% 7% Rechargeable battery (1) market by country Japan Korea China 8% 7% 6% LIB market by country Japan Korea China 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% % % (1) Excluding lead acid batteries 13

14 Million cells CYLINDRICAL LI-ION BATTERY Cylindrical LIB market Company market share in 214 in volume: 1925 Million cells (+3%) SONY 7% LG 18% OTHERS 7% SAMSUNG 29% Key success factor SANYO- PANASONIC 39% Production speed (-> cost) Performances Customer (Portable PCs) access Production Speed: ,8Ah cells PANASONIC SDI LG 35 ppm 1 4 ppm 4 ppm Note: 1 ppm: piece per minutes Ah / min SANYO-PANASONIC, SDI & LG will share the market cells for Portable PC & others 1865 for TESLA Assumptions: TESLA sold 35 kev in 214, 55 kev in 215 and 1 kev in 216 Cylindrical cells (M) by mfg PANASONIC-SANYO Sony SDI LG Others Source: Interviews with LG, SAMSUNG, SANYO-PANASONIC 14

15 PRISMATIC LI-ION BATTERY Prismatic LIB market Company market share in 214 in volume: 12 Million cells (-5%) Prismatic cells (M) by Mfg. : SAMSUNG is leading LISHEN 8% BYD 8% OTHERS 5% SAMSUNG SDI 26% BAK 7% MAXELL 12% SANYO- PANASONI C 15% LG 19% - Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 215 Panasonic-Sanyo SDI LG BYD LISHEN BAK OTHERS 15

16 LI-LAMINATE BATTERY Laminate battery market Company market share in 214 in volume: 2 22 Million cells (+32%) OTHERS 26% SONY 15% Pouch cells (M) by Mfg. SONY, ATL and SAMSUNG are leading this market PANASONIC 3% BAK 2% BYD 5% LISHEN 8% LG Chemical 12% SAMSUNG SDI 13% ATL 16% 1 5 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 215 Panasonic-Sanyo Sony SDI LG MAXELL BYD LISHEN BAK ATL 16

17 M Wh M Wh LI-ION IN 214 MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK 5 4 M cells 46 MWh 13 6 M$ (2) CAGR 24/ % per year in Volume +14% per year in value 6 Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, estimation data Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others Tablets Power Tools Camcorders Digital Camera Video Games MP3 Toys Auto Household devices E-bikes Others 17

18 M $ M $ LI-ION IN 214 MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK 5 25 M cells 45 MWh 13 3 M$ (2) CAGR 24/ % per year in Volume +14% per year in value 16 Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, (1) 12 Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, (1) Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others Note: (1) 213: Avicenne Forecasts (2) Cell level Automotives Tablets Power tools Camcorders Digital camera MP3 Games E-Bikes Others 18

19 M cellular phones/year ZTE 4% CELLULAR PHONES MARKET > 198 M LIB CELLS IN M cell phones sold in 213 (+7% CAGR) RIM 3% LG 8% MOTOROLA NOKIA MOTOROLA SAMSUNG LG APPLE RIM ZTE SONY M Phones Others 29% APPLE 3% NOKIA 33% SAMSUNG 2% Others 42% ZTE HUAWEI 4% 3% M Phones NOKIA 14% LG 4% SAMSUNG NOKIA APPLE SAMSUNG 25% APPLE 8% Samsung Galaxy & I-phone change the game % (212/213 growth) -23% Standard +13% Lam. 5% +67% Smartphones Pris. 5% LIB cell format (Volume) % 19

20 M cells / Year CELLULAR PHONES/LIB SUPPLIERS RELATIONSHIPS 213 Cellular Phone makers / battery suppliers relation ZTE Smartphones ie laminate LIB increasing 2 APPLE LG Chem Samsung Nokia M cells in 213 Sanyo Sony SDI LGC Lishen ATL 1 APPLE needs in 213 Mac IPad iphone ipod M Cells in 213 ATL SDI LG SONY LISHEN - NiMH LIB Pr. LIB La. 2

21 % of Portable PC sold M Portable PC/year PORTABLE PC MARKET 99 M LIB CELLS IN M portable PCs sold 212/213: -3% Dell HP Toshiba 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% Market outlook 214 Uncertain macro & weakness in both consumer & commercial growth No sign for end-customer demand recovery Decrease due to cannibalization by tablets Small overall decrease only thanks to Emerging market growth Increase of Ultra-thin Portable PCs 1% 8% 6% 4% Pris. 1% Lam. 19% Cyl. 8% LIB cell format (Volume) in 15in 14in 13in Acer Lenovo Asus APPLE Others Growth/years Note: Excluding Tablets 2% % in Netbook 21

22 Average Price (US $) M tablets /year TABLET MARKET > 55 M CELLS IN 213 Lam. 1% LIB cell format (Volume) 214 Tablets sold (Million) Apple leadership Others Samsung Apple Source: Gartner, IDC, Display search 213: AVICENNE Estimation ASP tablets drop Market Outlook 213 High growth driven by rapid ASP drop Growth driven by mature market (77%) consumer market (95%) Apple (33%), Samsung (2%), Asus (6%), Acer, Lenovo, Amazon are the key competitors From $636 in Q4 21 to $335 in Q4 213: - 47% in 36 months Q4 21 Q1 211 Q2 211 Q3 211 Q4 211 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 212 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 ipad Non i-pad Total 22

23 M cells /year LIB BATTERY SHORT TERM TRENDS Higher capacity, thinner battery, Pouch cells have the highest growth 1865 battery capacity* Cellular phones battery capacity 1% 1% 8% 6% > 3Ah 2,8Ah 2.6Ah 8% 6% > 18 mah 16 mah 14 mah 4% 2.4Ah 12 mah 4% 2.2Ah 1 mah 2% 2.Ah 2% 8 mah % 1.8Ah % <=1.6Ah < 8 mah *1C rate or laptop type 1865 cells Cylindrical/Prismatic/Laminates Li-ion Cyl Laminate Li-ion Pr Li-ion Cyl excl Tesla Li-ion cylindrical: Tesla impact : 15 M cells in 213, 3M in 214, 6 M in 215 Cylindrical/Prismatic/Laminates in 213 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Cylindrical Prismatic Laminates Others TESLA Power Tools Tablets Portable PCs Cellular 23

24 1Q 9 2Q 9 3Q9 4Q 9 1Q 1 2Q 1 3Q1 4Q 1 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q11 4Q 11 M cells /month M cells /Year Over supply Ratio $/kg BATTERY PRICE IS DECREASING DRASTICALLY In 1 Years 8% price decreasing despite a fluctuating Co price Source: LME Ni & Co price Ni Co Production capacity 29/211: from 15 to 25 M cells/month BAK ATL Lishen E-One LG SDI MAXELL SONY PANASONIC SANYO Average LIB cell price ($/Wh) 1,,8,6,4,2, 1865 oversupply ratio is decreasing thanks to TESLA Cylindrical Prismatic Laminate Note- Q4 213: Cylindrical:,17 $/Wh ; Laminates:,3$/Wh Standard Demand Production Capacity TESLA Oversupply ratio 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 24

25 LI-ION VALUE CHAIN MARKET DEMAND CATHODE 15 OOO T in 214 Revenues: 2,5 B$ CAGR 4/14: +16% ANODE 57 T Revenues:,8 B$ CAGR 3/13: +14% ELECTROLYTE 44 T Revenues:,68 B$ CAGR 4/14 : 2% CELL MANUFACTURERS Revenues: 13,6 B$ Gross margin: <1% PACK MANUFACTURERS Revenues: 19,6 B$ Gross margin: <1% SEPARATOR 695 M m² Revenues: 1,15 B$ CAGR 4/14 : 18% BINDER 7 1 Tons Revenues:,2 B$ CAGR 8/13 : 15% ANCILLARY Revenues:,7 B$ 25

26 Tons CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS NEEDS BY CHEMISTRY SUPPLY Cathode active materials for LIB in Tons, (Demand) LFP LMO NCA NMC LCO LCO >45 KT (214) NMC 1 > 35 KT (214) Others 2% Other China 8% L&F 16% Reshine 16% Shan Shan 1% Internal 3% Nichia 13% Easpring 6% Umicore 16% B&M 1% TODA 4% Other China 8% Reshine 3% SUMITOMO 16% NKS 4% ShanShan 8% L&F 6% Nichia 11% Umicore 24% Others 5% Internal 11% LMO > 18 KT (214) LFP > 1 KT (214) Other China 31% Reshine 8% ShanShan 9% Nichia 7% Qyanyun 11% Nippon Denko 8% Other 5% Internal 5% JGC 16% 1- Including NCA Valence 6% Formosa 8% Others 3% A123 1% Tatung 12% Clariant 5% Aleees 18% Other Japan 5% Internal 6% LEADERS: NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: ( ) 26

27 Tons CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL FORECASTS Cathode active materials Tons Cathode active materials in 214: 15 Tons LFP LMO NCA NMC NCA 9% LFP 1% LMO 19% NMC 22% LCO 4% ASSUMPTIONS: Portable devices: : +11% per year in volume HEV 4,8 M HEV/year in 22-35% LIB 6,8 M HEV in 225 9% LIB P-HEV,4 M P-HEV/year in 22,,7 M in 225 1% LIB EV 1M EV/year in 22, 1,5M/year in 225 1% LIB Industrial & stationary : +16% per year LCO Cathode active materials in 225: > 35 Tons LMO 12% LFP 23% NCA 1% NMC 25% LCO 3% Assumption: Tesla keep NCA chemistry and have a relative success (2 EV sold per year in 225 TESLA forecast 5 ) 27

28 Tons ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS 57 TONS IN 214 LIB Anode Materials Source: A. Jossen, IRES 27 Source: Hitachi Chemical LIB Anode Materials LIB Anode market, (Tons) 1,2 1,,8,6,4,2, LTO 4 Si or Sn Type 3 Amorphous Carbon 2 Meso-Phase 1 Artificial Graphite Natural Graphite Source: Sanyo, March

29 ANODE FOR LIB IN 214 Natural graphite become a commodity Others A123 BAK ATL Maxell Lishen BYD LGC SDI PANASONIC SONY SANYO % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Note: MCMB: Mesocarbon Microbeads LEADERS: Carbon for LIB anodes by type (213) Natural Graphite 64% Artificial Graphite 26% MCMB 4% ARTIFICIAL MCMB NATURAL Amorphous METAL Amorphous 4% Si or Sn Type 1% LTO 1% Capacity (/g) Capacity (/cc) Hard Carbon Cyclability ++ + Source: Hitachi Chemical NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: Soft Carbon Graphite 4 mah/g 25 mah/g mah/g ++ + Power ++ + Stability ++ + Precursors COST 212- >22 Petroleum Pitch, Resin, cellulose, wood, coconuts 3 -> 25 $/kg Petroleum coke 25->2 $/kg Natural or petroleum coke 15 -> 1 $/kg SUPPLIERS KUREHA HITACHI HITACHI BTR & many others ( ) 29

30 M$ LIB SEPARATOR MARKET 214 LIB separator market, M$, CAGR 24/214: +17% 14 LIB Separator supplier, market share in UBE 7% CELGARD 14% Others 14% ASAHI 25% 4 2 SK 13% ENTEK 3% SUMITOMO 1% TORAY 23% Others: TDK/Nitto Denko, Foshan Jinhui Hi-Tech, Shenzhen Senior Technology Material, Xinxiang Green next Energy, Dupont, LEADERS: NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: Evonik, TEIJIN, HIFUTURE, UBE-MAXELL ( ) 3

31 Tons ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS 44 TONS IN 214 LIB electrolyte market, Tons, CAGR 24/214: +23% LEADERS: Cellular Portable PC Tablets Power tools E-bikes HEV PHEV EV Others LIB electrolyte supplier, market share in 214 Cap Chem 8% Soulbrain 7% ShanShan 7% Jinniu 8% Mitsui 3% Others 8% NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: GTHR 15% UBE 5% Mitsubishi Chem 14% In-house 9% Tomiyama 3% PANAX- ETEC 13% Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huang JINNIU Note: (1) GTHR: Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong 31

32 Tons LIB ELECTROLYTE MARKET 214 Electrolyte Battery makers & suppliers relation in 214 Others TOSHIBA Yuasa (BEC) YUASA (LEJ) NEC A123 BAK ATL Maxell Lishen BYD LG Chem SDI Panasonic Sony 5 1 Tons Mitsubishi Chem In-house Tomiyama PANAX-ETEC GTHR Mitsui Jinniu Cap Chem ShanShan Soulbrain Others (1) Full electrolyte formulation in-house Electrolyte maker sales GTHR Mitsubishi PANAX (2) In-House Jinniu Capchem Shanshan Soulbrain Ube Mitsui Tomiyama Ube Mitsubishi In-House Tomiyama PANAX GTHR Mitsui Jinniu Capchem Shanshan Soulbrain (2) Panax-Etec bought Samsung Chiel activities in 21 32

33 BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS Applications covered Parameters analysis Portable PCs, net-book, Ultra-book Cellular Phones, Smart-phones Tablets Camcorders Cordless Tools, Gardening tools Digital Camera Games, MP3 Cordless Phones Shavers, Toothbrush, RC Cars E-bikes Power tools Security lighting Vehicles: HEV, P-HEV, EV Industrial motive (forklift) Industrial stationary (UPS, Telecom) Medical Energy Storage (Small / large) Main segment trends Power need trends (volume, weight, capacity, running time) Penetration rate for each Chemistry, each form factor, Forecasts OEM strategies and positions Main drivers & limiters 33

34 CELLULAR PHONES FORECASTS Cellular phones demand (M Units) CAGR : +6% 4 OTHERS INDIA ASIA CHINA JAPAN EUROPE USA Cellular Phones market Drivers Emergent market Lam. 5% Renewal ratio increase Cyl. 25% Pris. 25% LIB cell format (Volume) 214 Smartphone penetration increase LIB cells demand Polymer penetration: 5% -> 75% 1% 8% 6% Polymer 4% Prismatic 2% % Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses LIB cells for cellular phones trends Laminates ratio increase Increase of Thickness Increase of >14 mah capacity 34

35 PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES FORECASTS Portable PCs demand (M Units) CAGR: +4% Emerging 1 Mature Portable PCs market trends Mature market stable or decreasing Growth driven by Emerging market Ultrabook is increasing (2 (1) to 6% in 213 (2) ) ASP decreasing (<499$ Portable PCs increase from 25% in 21 to 33% in 212 Source: IDC, Gartner, AVICENNE Energy LIB cells demand Polymer penetration: 7% -> 28% 1% 8% 6% Laminate 4% Prismatic 2% Cylindrical % (1) Samsung & AVICENNE (2) Intel LIB cells for portable PCs trends Thinner cells Polymer penetration increasing from 7% in 21 to 28% in 225 > 28 mah for Premium/corporate 2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging market Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 35

36 MWh M cells/year 225 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES LIB market, MWh, by application (3C) Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses Others Household Toys MP3 Video Games Digital Camera Camcorders Cordless Phones Tablets Portable PCs Cellular Phones LIB market, M cells, by form factor (3C) Li-P Li-ion Pr Li-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 213 (1) (1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 213 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4 36

37 X-EV MARKET Why x-ev? Definition & segmentation X-EV worldwide in 213 By country By car makers By battery chemistry X-EV forecasts AVICENNE ENERGY & other analyst forecasts Battery chemistry forecasts Battery cost forecasts X-EV battery forecasts 37

38 Aircraft Automotive Mobile Background SAFETY ISSUES Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious safety concerns In the 8 s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit. CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projects Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid electrolyte. In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction starts -> heating & gasing -> fire ( Thermal runaway ) CONSEQUENCES: In 26, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of 4 million USD, more than there profit-to-date With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns: (1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode (2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing!) (3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company without any authorisation by Toyota) Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane s shell. CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing. 38

39 SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES Some technologies are already out of the game due to stability issues 39

40 LIB BATTERY COST Costs analysis Battery price in 213 Raw material cost (Co, Mn, Ni, Al, Cu, ) Anode, cathode, Electrolyte, separator, binders, Cu & Al foil, etc cost structure : CAPEX, labor cost, R&D Marketing, Adm, Overhead, margin) Raw material needs / mah Electrode process Yield Assembly Process Yield Cell manufacturing cost Module manufacturing cost Pack assembly cost $/kwh LIB 1865 cell LIB EV Cell LIB pack for EV LIB HEV cell LIB pack for HEV 4

41 BATTERY & POWER ELEC. COST IN EV 8,25-18,1 5-5,5-3 8, HV batt. Pack for EV 8,15-15,1 HV batt. CELL for EV , - 2,5 1,5-3, , Overall HV battery LV cell battery pack Packaging material Cooling Syst Batt. Magt Syst Batt. Packaging Manuf. DC/DC converter Charger Generator Inverter Inverter Rectifier HV Cables & Connectors Power Elec Pack Manufacturing BMS 4 Thermal Mgmt + packaging 2 Cell manu Active Hybrid 5 Volt Bluecar Leaf HEV P-HEV EV AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION Cell 41

42 Cell Pack Cell Pack Cell Pack $ / kwh $ / kwh LI-ION BATTERY COST LIB cell average cost (36Ah pouch) (EV design ; LMO/NMC cathode) LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST FOR EV Margin Warranty Overheads Sales & Adm R&D 5 4 Pack Cost Cell Manufacturing 2 Energy, utilities Direct labor 3 Other Materials Depreciation Others Separator Electrolyte Anode (1) Cathode (1) 2 1 Separator Electrolyte Anode (1) Active materials only * 215* 22* * For Production > 1 packs/year Cathode 42

43 HEV penetration (% of total car sales) Million HEV FORECASTS 2-22 HEV MARKET: 2,5 Million units in M in 22 7 M in % 8 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS WORLD USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS Micro hybrid not included Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

44 Million HEV worldwide / Year LONG TERM HEV FORECAST FROM 3 TO 8 M HEV IN 22 AVICENNE ENERGY FORECASTS ARE REALISTIC COMPARE TO OTHER ANALYSTS Pike Research Roland Berger Deutsche Bank (21) AVICENNE 6 Credit Suisse (21) AAB Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Compilation, February 213 Micro hybrid not included 44

45 Number of EV sold worldwide ( Million) X EV FORECASTS EV sold, in million units, worldwide, IIT (MARCH 211) DEUTSCHE BANK (212) EV impact on the LIB & raw material market is HUGE EV P-HEV IIT (MARCH 21) HEV 1 E-bikes ROLAND BERGER (211) ROLAND BERGER (212) AVICENNE AAB (212) Power Tools Portable PC Mobile Phone IIT, March 211 Fort Lauderdale IIT, March 21 Fort Lauderdale Deutsche Bank, Electric Cars: Plugged In 2 Nov 29 Roland BERGER, Oct 211, Batteries 211 Cannes AAB, AABC Europe, Mainz, June Average Wh per device 45

46 Million cars XEV 225 FORECASTS HEV, P-HEV & EV market forecasts up to LIB penetration in HEV % ,37,15 1,5 1,5, ,5, EV P-HEV HEV 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % NiMH LIB 46

47 M Wh M $ TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND FOR AUTO FORECASTS EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh) CAGR : +23% Rechargeable battery market for Auto (1), M$ for x-ev CAGR : +14% NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV (1) Pack level 47

48 Million 35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN 22 Micro-hybrids car market Micro-hybrid car sold per year AVICENNE Optimistic Scenario JD Power Valeo Advantages of micro-hybrid compare to HEV Powered by Advanced lead acid batteries Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 1 times less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of 2% (4 times less) Much more impact on CO2 Battery Micro-hybrid Advanced lead acid Full HEV NiMH or LIB Cost ($) 3 3 Fuel saving 5% 2% Million Vehicle sold per year in

49 HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID BATTERIES 21 STANDARD CAR 88.5% MICRO HYBRIDS 1% MILD HEV.5% FULL HEV 1% EV P-HEV 215 Batteries Standard Lead acid Advanced Lead acid NiMH NiMH batteries Li-ion batteries 22 STANDARD CAR 44% MICRO HYBRID 5% FULL HEV 4% EV P-HEV 2% AFTER ULTRA BATTERY Li-ion Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells 49

50 MWh THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (9% market share) Others (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, Lead Acid Batteries 33 GWh for US $ 3 Billion 3% 64% 33% Industrial Batteries 54 GWh for US $ 1 Billion 2% 24% 22% 4% 12% SLI Industrial E-bikes Telecom UPS Other Stationary Forklift Other motive 5

51 BATTERY FOR OTHER APPLICATION US$ 18 BILLION 1 MARKET Battery market in 213 (M$) SLI Automotive Portable Other Applications Marine Medical devices Wheelchair Medical Cart Other Stationary Seismic ESS Other Stand-by UPS Telecom SLI Automotiv e Portable Battery Market M$ Power Tools 14 E-bikes 229 Forklifts 3 57 Motive Others 18 TOTAL MOTIVE 3 75 Telecom back-up 2 9 UPS 2 4 Industrial Misc. Standby 315 Stationary ESS 45 Seismic (1) 21 Other Stationary 19 Total STATIONARY 7 37 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL Medical Cart 15 Wheelchair 47 Medical Device (1) 115 Marine 45 Others 1 TOTAL 17 6 (1) 5 M$ for Li-ion - Source: Zprime 211 Other Motive Forklift 1 Power Tools E-Bikes 1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors ) not included Source: AVICENNE ENERGY,

52 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET IN 213: US $ 54 BILLION Battery market in 213 (M$) SLI Automotive Portable Other Applications Marine Medical devices Wheelchair Medical Cart Other Stationary Seismic ESS Other Stand-by UPS SLI Automotive Portable Telecom 4 Other Motive Other Motive 1 Forklift Forklift 2 Power Tools Power Tools E-Bikes E-Bikes Lead Acid LIB 1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors ) not included Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, Other Applications Marine Medical devices Wheelchair Medical Cart Other Stationary Seismic ESS Other Stand-by UPS Telecom 52

53 TOTAL POTENTIAL MARKET ANALYZED IN THE SURVEY (M$, PACK LEVEL 1 ) Application details US$ 18 Billion in 213 Battery Market M$ Power Tools 14 E-bikes 229 Forklifts 3 57 Motive Others 18 TOTAL MOTIVE 3 75 Telecom back-up 2 9 UPS 2 4 Industrial Misc. Standby 315 Stationary ESS 45 Seismic (1) 21 Other Stationary 19 Total STATIONARY 7 37 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL Medical Cart 15 Wheelchair 47 Medical Device (1) 115 Marine 45 Others 1 TOTAL 17 6 Marine 3% Medical devices 6% UPS 14% Other App 6% Telecom 17% E-Bikes 12% Power Tools 9% Forklift 2% E-Bikes Power Tools Forklift Other Motive Telecom UPS Other Stand-by ESS Seismic Other Stationary Medical Cart Wheelchair Medical devices Marine Other App (2) Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors ) not included Other App: Military, aerospace, Oil & Gas, Railways, Aviation, Utility metering,

54 > US$ 1 B > US$ 7 B OTHER APPLICATIONS 1 B$ POTENTIAL MARKET 1 Battery market in 212 (M$) 18 Other Applications Battery market in 22 (M$) 18 Marine Medical devices Wheelchair Medical Cart Other Stationary Seismic 1 1 ESS Other Stand-by 8 8 UPS Telecom 6 6 Other Motive 4 4 Forklift Power Tools 2 2 E-Bikes Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 213 Lead Acid LIB Lead Acid LIB For Power tools, NiCd batteries are used rather than lead acid batteries Pack level

55 LI-ION CELL & PACK MARKET DETAILS Li-ion cell market (B$) 45 Portable: from 28 to 83 GWh Automotive: from 6 to 5 GWh «Others»: from 5 to 3 GWh Li-ion Pack market 1 (B$) Others (2) Automotive Portable Others (2) Automotive Portable Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors ) not included 2- Others: Batteries for Power tools, E-bikes, Industrial, medical Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis

56 MWh TAKEAWAYS Battery Market CAGR = +1% Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices (smartphones, tablets) For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMH In 212, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 6 B$ market in B$ in 22 & 15 B$ in 225 EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 22 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 22 Micro-hybrid will achieve >5% Lead acid battery will be the first market in 225 in volume & value A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 15% in the next 15 years In 22, Energy storage will represent less than 5% of the total battery market RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET WORLDWIDE GWh 28 GWh B$ 575 GWh 54B$ 775 GWh 64 B$ 83 B$ Others Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, 56 LIB NiMH NiCd Lead Acid > 1 B$ (Pack level) 4, Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-5%) NiMH (-4%) LIB for 3C (+3%) LIB for xev (+16%) LIB for Others* (+16%) Others (CAGR )

57 THANK YOU AVICENNE ENERGY Phone: Mobile:

58 About AVICENNE ENERGY

59 AVICENNE ENERGY JANUARY ()

60 AVICENNE PROFILE Information for Growth - Powering your company s market strategy with in-depth research Creation: 1992, by Ali MADANI Headquarter: Paris Liaison Office: Japan, USA AVICENNE Energy Director: Christophe Pillot 5 consultants A Madani C Pillot JP Salvat X Zhang A Yassari Battery market 23 rd Edition Customized survey 6

61 OUR BUSINESS STORY 1992 AVICENNE Creation 1994 AVICENNE advised French Industry Ministry on the European battery business opportunities AVICENNE open its office in JAPAN «BATTERIES» congress 1 st edition in Paris AVICENNE work on the due diligence process for the sales of SAFT by ALCATEL 28 AVICENNE: expert witness in the NTT-Hydro Quebec conflict 29 AVICENNE presented its market forecasts to industrials (CIAPS) in Beijing China Avicenne developed partnership with BATTERY JAPAN 2 th Edition of The rechargeable battery market worldwide AVICENNE Energy division is created 13 th Edition of BATTERIES Congress st Edition of The rechargeable battery market worldwide rd Edition of our Battery Market Syrvey 16 th Edition of BATTERIES Congress in NICE, France 1 month mission in China: Qinghai EV Rally, CIBF, 5 companies visited 61

62 DEMAND SIDE SUPPLY SIDE OUR METHODOLOGY Track valuable Information's INFORMATION COLLECTION Primary Research Secondary Research Strategic Analysis Executive Interviews Vendor Briefings Product Demos and Tours Consumer Surveys Business Leader Surveys Company News & Financials Technology & Product Specs Government Data Economic, Demographic Data Case Studies Reference Customers Presentation of the results Q&A with customers Customer Evaluation MARKET & STRATEGIC ANALYSIS Qualitative Quantitative Strategic Business Models & Trends Technology Issues Policy & Regulatory Factors Competitive Landscape Profiles of Key Players Company News & Financials Technology & Product Specs Government Data Economic, Demographic Data SWOT Analysis Gap Analysis Business Plan Value Proposition Due Diligence Merger & Acquisition

63 METHODOLOGY: EXTENSIVE FIELD RESEARCH TO RETRIEVE & CROSS CHECK INFORMATION Top management contact network > 19 contacts In Depth analysis Of applications Cross Check Analysis Conferences & Exhibitions Battery Makers Substitution technologies OEM BMS Electronics Raw materials suppliers Environment & recycling

64 CUSTOMIZED & MULTICLIENT SURVEY FOR ALL THE VALUE CHAIN Raw Materials BMS & Electronics Source : Photo from BASF Batteries Cooling Systems Power Electronics

65 MORE THAN 2 REFERENCES WORLDWIDE 3M A123 AIR LIQUIDE AIR PRODUCT AHLSTROM ALCATEL AMPEREX (ATL) APPLIED MATERIALS ARKEMA AROS SECURITIES ARC ASHLAND ATL AMPEREX AT KEARNEY AUSTRIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY AXEON BAIN BASF BATTERY ASSOCIATION OF KOREA BAYER BLACK & DECKER BHP BILLITON BRAND LICENCING PARNERS (BLP) BOURNS BOSCH BOOZ BRUCKNER BUHLER GMBH BYD CABOT CALL2RECYCLE CAP X CATELLA CARBONE LORRAINE CARLYLE CATELLA CATERPILLAR INC. CDN COBALT CEA/LITEN CELGARD CHEMETALL CHEMISHE FABRIK BUDENHEIM CIBA CIAPS CHINA COGEMA CONOCO PHILIPS CRU GROUP CSC CHALLENGE STRATEGY CHANGE DELTA DGA DIALOG SEMICONDUCTOR DOW CHEMICAL DOW CORNING DUPONT DURACELL EDF ELECTRO ENERGY ENER 1 ENERGIZER EOLITE EPCOS OHG ERAMET ETC AB FACOM FALCON BRIDGE FAIRSHILD SEMICONDUCTOR FAMEART FIST FLORIDIENNE DE CHIMIE FMC FORTU POWER CELL FRANCE TELECOM FREUDENBERG VLIESSTOFFE SE & CO FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FULTON INNOVATION GAIA GIL IMPORT BATTERIES LTD. GS MELCOTEC HC STARCK HILTI HITACHI MAXELL HOLLINGSWORTH & VOSE CIE HONEYWELL HPL (HIGH POWER LITHIUM) HUTCHINSON ICC NEXERGY IER IGL EXPORT. INTERNATIONAL COMPONENT CORP. INTERNATIONAL RECTIFIER INTEK INTEL INTERSIL INCO ISRAEL CONSULTING ITRI ITS JBC JETRO JOHNSON CONTROLS JOHNSON MATTHEY KODAK KRUGER LAZARD LECLANCHÉ LEGRAND LG CHEMICAL LION CELLS LITTLE FUSE LILIPUCIAN LYNAS CORP MATSUSHITA MICROSOFT MTI MICRO FUEL CELLS MOLTECH MOLYCORP MOMENTIVE MOSAID TECHNOLOGIES MOTOROLA MUNSTER UNIVERSITY NANOCYL NCCP RUSSIA NEC NITECH NKKPC NORILSK NICKEL NOVALED NTK POWERDEX OLIVER WYMAN OMG INC ORANGE OSKR PANASONIC PHILIPS PHOTON PK & WISE PLEXTRONICS POWER GENIX PRAYON PRISMARK PSA RAYOVAC RECHARGE RENAULT RHODIA ROLAND BERGER ROSKILL INFORMATION SERVICES SAFT SAGENTIA SAINT GOBAIN SAKTI SAMSUNG SDI SANIK SCHRODER VENTURE SCOTENT ENTREPRISE SEPCELL SFPZ SHENZHEN HIGH POWER TECHNOLOGY SCHOTT AG SKC SQM SVE - DASSAULT SOLVAY SONY STIBAT STORCK STRATEGY ANALYSIS TERRAROSSA CAPITAL TIGER GLOBAL TODA KOGYO TOTAL TOTAL WIRELESS SOLUTION TOYO TOYOTA TREOFAN TYCO UMICORE UNIROSS URALELEMENT US NAVY VARTA VOLTRACK WACKER CHEMIE AG WARBURGPINCUS WILDCAT WORLD INDUSTRIAL INFORMATION CENTER WR GRACE & CIE YASLAMEN ZEBRA ZPOWER 65

66 SPEAKER, CHAIRMAN OR WORKSHOP MODERATOR Tens of INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCES per year Extended Battery Life Working Group on battery technology development for mobile devices Meeting Tokyo Japan, Dec 214 1h3 Presentation The battery market for mobile BATTERIES 214, FRANCE ( ) Owner, chairman & speaker The battery market INTERNATIONAL Li-ion BATTERY SUMMIT Dec 213, Shenzhen, China The Li-ion battery raw materials market AABC Europe, Mainz (212, 213, 215) The Lithium ion raw material battery market THE INTERNATIONAL - FLORIDA Fort Lauderdale, Florida, March 214 2h tutorial HEV, PHEV & EV market ; Battery is the key (From 24 to 214) EVER 29, 211, MONACO Challenges for EV market in Europe EVS 211, 213 Battery market for automotive industry CIAPS (China Industrial Association of Power sources), BEIJING, Dec 29 Advanced battery market & raw materials worldwide Advanced Battery for Vehicles, IQPC, Frankfort, 29, 21, 212 Chairman & speaker, The battery business EET-28 European Ele-Drive, MOTOR SHOW GENEVA, International Advanced Mobility Forum Geneva Motor Show (Professor Gaston Maggetto Award: C. Pillot as the best rated paper & presentation by EET-28 Scientific Reviewing Committee) The HEV & EV market trends & main challenges China Industry Battery Fair 26, 21, 214 The Chinese battery Industry

67 Million HEV powered by LIB Number of EV sold worldwide ( Million) AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS EV sold, in million units, worldwide, ,6 5 IIT (MARCH 211) 1,4 1,2 IIT 27 4 DEUTSCHE BANK (212) 1 IIT 28 3 IIT (MARCH 21),8,6,4, IIT 29 IIT 21 AVICENNE 27 REALITY HEV powered by Lithium ion battery forecasts from 28 to 212 Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 27, 28, 29, 21 & 211 ROLAND BERGER (211) ROLAND BERGER (212) AVICENNE AAB (212) 67

68 BATTERIES days congress in France (Paris, Nice, Cannes) 17 th Edition (first edition in 1999) 5 attendees 4 Booths Battery makers, raw materials suppliers, IC & BMS suppliers, tests, machining, coating, 8 international experts: Researchers, industrial process, marketing, financials,

69 SUMMARY A small team dedicated on the battery industry since almost 2 years Working with large group worldwide: FMC, Umicore, Dupont, Dow, Panasonic, LG, Samsung, JCI, Nokia, Bosch, Siemens, Toyota, Renault, Synthetic presentation to management & CEO of major groups We will help and support your growth Knowledge Methodology Expert Network Flexibility