GLOBAL MARKET ISSUES & TRENDS Christophe Pillot Director avicenne ENERGY Consumer Electronics, : Materials Requirements & Trends
Automotive, and Director, AVICENNE ENERGY +33()1 4778 46 Presentation Outline The rechargeable battery market in 213 xev market in 213 Forecasts
Million HEV powered by LIB Number of EV sold worldwide ( Million) AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS HEV powered by Lithium ion battery forecasts from 28 to 213 EV sold, in million units, worldwide, 21-22 2 IIT 27 5 IIT (MARCH 211) 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 IIT 28 4 3 DEUTSCHE BANK (212) IIT (MARCH 21) 1 IIT 29,8,6,4 IIT 21 AAB REALITY AVICENNE 27 2 1 ROLAND BERGER (211) ROLAND BERGER (212) AVICENNE 27-212,2 AAB (212) 28 29 21 211 212 213 Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 27, 28, 29, 21 & 211 AABC June 27 21 215 22 3
Tons of cathode / Year $/Wh Million Units / year Million Units/Year THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) 2 Li-ion 15 NiMH 1 5 2 213 Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year 1 5 4 3 2 1 3 Portable PC sold per Year (Million) Li-ion NiMH >2 M Tablets 195 M Portable PCs 2 213 Li-ion 1865 cell price ($/Wh) 8 6 4 2,5 2 1,5 1 2,5 2 213 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 213 2 213 4
MWh THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 199-213 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry investments 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Others (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 213 199 2 21 212 213 5
MWh MWh THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 199-213 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (9% market share) 4 45 35 4 3 25 2 15 1 Others (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 5 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 213 199 2 21 212 213 199 2 21 212 213 6
199 2 25 21 212 213 215 22 199 2 25 21 212 213 215 22 Billion US $ Billion US$ THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 199-22 54 BILLION US$ in 213 Pack level 1 5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (199-213) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Others (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 OTHERS AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRIAL E-BIKES POWER TOOLS PORTABLE SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, ), data collection & handy terminals, POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools INDUSTRIAL MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear, AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators 1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors ) not included Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 213 SLI 7
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET IN 213: US $ 54 BILLION Battery market in 213 (M$) SLI Automotive 6 18 Other Applications Portable 16 Marine Other Applications 5 Medical devices Marine Medical devices Wheelchair Medical Cart Other Stationary Seismic ESS Other Stand-by UPS 4 3 2 SLI Automotive Portable 14 12 1 8 6 Wheelchair Medical Cart Other Stationary Seismic ESS Other Stand-by UPS Telecom Telecom 4 Other Motive Other Motive 1 Forklift Forklift 2 Power Tools Power Tools E-Bikes E-Bikes Lead Acid LIB 1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors ) not included Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 213 8
2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 M Wh M Wh LI-ION IN 213 MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK 5 M cells 39 MWh 12 M$ (2) CAGR 23/213 +26 % per year in Volume +14% per year in value 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 - Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2-213 (1) 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 - Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2-213 (1) Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others Note: (1) 213: Avicenne Forecasts (2) Cell level Tablets Power Tools Camcorders Digital Camera Video Games MP3 Toys Auto Household devices E-bikes Others 9
2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 M $ M $ LI-ION IN 213 MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK 5 M cells 39 MWh 12 M$ (2) CAGR 23/213 +26 % per year in Volume +14% per year in value 14 12 1 Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2-213 (1) 7 6 5 Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2-213 (1) 8 4 6 4 2-3 2 1 Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others Note: (1) 213: Avicenne Forecasts (2) Cell level Automotives Tablets Power tools Camcorders Digital camera MP3 Games E-Bikes Others 1
CELLULAR PHONES FORECASTS 21-225 Cellular phones demand (M Units) CAGR 21-225: +6% 4 OTHERS 3 2 1 - INDIA ASIA CHINA JAPAN EUROPE USA Cellular Phones market Drivers Emergent market Pris. 1% Renewal ratio increase Lam. 16% Cyl. 83% LIB cell format (Volume) 213 Smartphone penetration increase LIB cells demand 21-225 Polymer penetration: 3% -> 75% 1% 8% 6% Polymer 4% Prismatic 2% % Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses LIB cells for cellular phones trends Laminates ratio increase Increase of Thickness Increase of >14 mah capacity 11
PORTABLE PCS FORECASTS 21-225 Portable PCs demand (M Units) 21-225 CAGR: +4% 4 3 2 1 Source: IDC, Gartner, AVICENNE Energy Emerging Mature Portable PCs market trends Mature market stable or decreasing Growth driven by Emerging market Ultrabook is increasing (2 (1) to 6% in 213 (2) ) ASP decreasing (<499$ Portable PCs increase from 25% in 21 to 33% in 212 (1) Samsung & AVICENNE (2) Intel Pris. 1% Lam. 16% Cyl. 83% LIB cell format (Volume) 213 LIB cells demand 21-225 Polymer penetration: 7% -> 28% 1% 8% 6% Laminate 4% Prismatic 2% Cylindrical % LIB cells for portable PCs trends Thinner cells Polymer penetration increasing from 7% in 21 to 28% in 225 > 28 mah for Premium/corporate 2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging market Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 12
2 25 21 213 215 22 225 MWh M cells/year 225 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES 2-225 LIB market, MWh, by application (3C) 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses Others Household Toys MP3 Video Games Digital Camera Camcorders Cordless Phones Tablets Portable PCs Cellular Phones 2-225 LIB market, M cells, by form factor (3C) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 25 21 215 22 225 Li-P Li-ion Pr Li-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 213 (1) (1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 213 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4 13
HEV, P-HEV & EV DEFINITION & SEGMENTATION EV & HEV MARKET EV 25 kwh HEV.6-2 kwh batteries P HEV 1 kwh batteries MICRO HEV* MILD HEV MEDIUM HEV FULL HEV CITROEN C2, C3 BMW 3Series Fiat 5 Hyundai i1 Hyudai i3 Kia Smart for2 Toyota Yaris Toyota Auris VW Passat.. GM Saturn Vue GM AURA GM MALIBU HONDA ACCORD HONDA CIVIC INSIGHT MERCEDES S4 Note: Micro HEV are not in the HEV statistics & HEV forecast TOYOTA PRIUS TOYOTA CAMRY FORD ESCAPE FORD FUSION MILAN GM YUKON GM TAHOE NISSAN ALTIMA Fuel saving Vs. Cost 1% EV 8% 6% P-HEV 4% 2% HEV % $ 5 $ 1 $ 15 $ 14
2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 Penetration of hybrids in the globale sales Million HEV WORLDWIDE IN 213 >1,8 M HEV HEV sold per year, M units, worldwide, 2-213 Penetration of hybrids in the global sales, 2-213 2, 1,8 TOYOTA OTHERS % 25% 1,6 1,4 1,2 2% 15% JAPAN 1,,8,6,4,2, 1% 5% % USA EUROPE Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY Micro hybrid not included 15
HEV sold HEV WORLDWIDE IN 213 BY CAR SUPPLIER Total HEV Vehicles +1,8M in 213 HEV sold per year, M units per car manufacturers, 2-213 HYUNDAI 4% GM FORD VW 1% 4% HONDA 12% 1 6 1 4 1 2 1 8 TOYOTA 6 TOYOTA 78% 4 2 HONDA Others: Nissan, Mercedes, Mazda, VW, Audi TOYOTA HONDA Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY Micro hybrid not included 16
2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 HEV sold HEV sold HEV WORLDWIDE IN 213 BY CAR SUPPLIER TOP 3: TOYOTA, HONDA, HYUNDAI 1 6 1 4 TOYOTA OTHERS: FORD, GM, 8 7 1 2 1 8 6 5 4 HYUNDAI 6 4 2 HONDA HYUNDAI 3 2 1 FORD GM TOYOTA HONDA HYUNDAI FORD GM Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY Micro hybrid not included 17
2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 HEV penetration (% of total car sales) Million HEV FORECASTS 2-225 HEV MARKET: 2,5 Million units in 215 5 M in 22 7M in 225 35% 8 3% 7 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 25 21 215 22 225 USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS WORLD Micro hybrid not included USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS 18
LIB FOR AUTOMOTIVE VALUE CHAIN Comments 1 2 3 4 5 6 The largest share of the value (4%) comes from cell components Cell manufacturers & OEM alliance may be the winning model but comes with high risk if the wrong cell manufacturer is selected Tiers 1- cell manufacturers alliance: most of them disappear (eg. Saft-Johnson Controls, Bosch- Samsung, Enerdel- Delphi ) Tiers 1- OEM alliance on Battery are not successful Panasonic and LG Chem, cell manufacturers develop raw -material inhouse and make the pack integration for OEM On a different scale, Toyota, BYD or BOLLORE are fully integrate 19
LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS 29-215 1-12 B$ WORLDWIDE >5 GWh in 215 Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing LiTec GmbH Panasonic EV SK Energy Mitsubishi H.I. NEC Tokin (Electrodes) AESC Japon Hitachi Vehicle Energy SAFT SAFT US BAK Lishen Nissan-Renault (Port) Blue Energy Toshiba Nissan - Renault (UK) LG Chem - Compact Rusnano-Thunder Sky Lithium Energy Japan Hitachi Vehicle Energy SB Limotive GS YUASA Dow Kokam (KD ABG MI) Nissan-Renault (Fr) Ener1 Sanyo A123 JCI LG Chem BYD Sony NISSAN Motor US PANASONIC Average Investments: 25 $ / kwh 5 1 15 M$ A123 Michigan Plant - Photo courtesy of A123 Systems Liotech Plant, Novosibirsk 1,5 GWh production capacity 2
Aircraft Automotive Mobile Background SAFETY ISSUES Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious safety concerns In the 8 s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit. CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projects Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid electrolyte. In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction starts -> heating & gasing -> fire ( Thermal runaway ) CONSEQUENCES: In 26, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of 4 million USD, more than there profit-to-date With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns: (1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode (2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing!) (3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company without any authorisation by Toyota) Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane s shell. CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing. 21
SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES Some technologies are already out of the game due to stability issues 22
TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS IN LIB INDUSTRY 23
BATTERY & POWER ELEC. COST IN EV 8,25-18,1 5-5,5-3 8, HV batt. Pack for EV 8,15-15,1 HV batt. CELL for EV 1-4 5-4 1, - 2,5 1,5-3, 15-15 - 25 35 3-5 9-1,25 15-35 Overall HV battery LV cell battery pack 12 1 8 6 Packaging material Cooling Syst Batt. Magt Syst Batt. Packaging Manuf. DC/DC converter Charger Generator Inverter Inverter Rectifier HV Cables & Connectors Power Elec Pack Manufacturing BMS 4 Thermal Mgmt + packaging 2 Cell manu Active Hybrid 5 Volt Bluecar Leaf HEV P-HEV EV AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION Cell 24
LIB CELL BILL OF MATERIALS NISSAN LEAF BOLLORE BLUE CAR GM VOLT BMW ACTIVE HYBRID 5 AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION 25
Cell Pack Cell Pack Cell Pack $ / kwh $ / kwh LI-ION BATTERY COST 213-22 LIB cell average cost (36Ah pouch) (EV design ; LMO/NMC cathode) 4 LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST FOR EV 6 35 3 25 2 Margin Warranty Overheads Sales & Adm R&D Energy, utilities Direct labor 5 4 3 Pack Cost Cell Manufacturing Other Materials 15 1 Depreciation Others Separator Electrolyte 2 1 Separator Electrolyte 5 Anode (1) Cathode (1) Anode (1) Active materials only 213 215 22 213* 215* 22* * For Production > 1 packs/year Cathode 26
Million cars XEV 225 FORECASTS HEV, P-HEV & EV market forecasts up to 225 1 LIB penetration in HEV 21-225 1% 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1,37,15 1,5 1,5,65 7 5 2,5,9 21 215 22 225 EV P-HEV HEV 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 21 215 22 225 NiMH LIB 27
M Wh M Wh TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND 225 FORECASTS EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh) CAGR 213-225: +2% Total battery demand (MWh) CAGR 213-225: +12% 18 16 14 12 1 18 16 14 12 1 8 8 6 4 2 6 4 2-25 21 215 22 225 2 25 21 215 22 225 NiMH for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for HEV LIB for EV NiCd NiMH except Auto LIB except Auto NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV 28
M $ M $ RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2 225 Rechargeable battery market, M$ for x-ev 2-225 (cell level) Rechargeable battery market, M$, 2-225 (cell level) 3 3 25 25 2 15 2 15 1 1 5 5 2 25 21 213 215 22 225 NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV 2 25 21 215 22 225 NiCd NiMH except Auto NiMH for HEV LIB Cyl LIB Pr LIB Pol LIB Auto 29
Million 35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN 22 Micro-hybrids car market 21-22 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Micro-hybrid car sold per year AVICENNE Optimistic Scenario JD Power Valeo Micro-hybrid batteries Powered today by Advanced lead acid batteries (sometimes in conjunction with super capacitors) LTO will also penetrate this market (Toshiba -> Suzuki) Panasonic develop new NiMH cell to adress the micro-hybrid market Advantages of micro-hybrid compare to HEV Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 1 times less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of 2% (4 times less) Much more impact on CO2 Battery Micro-hybrid Advanced lead acid Full HEV NiMH or LIB Cost ($) 3 3 Fuel saving 5% 2% 21 215 22 Million Vehicle sold per year in 22 35 3.5 3
HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID BATTERIES 21 STANDARD CAR 88.5% MICRO HYBRIDS 1% MILD HEV.5% FULL HEV 1% EV P-HEV 215 Batteries Lead acid Standard Advanced Lead acid NiMH NiMH batteries Li-ion batteries 22 STANDARD CAR < 44% MICRO HYBRID > 5% FULL HEV 4% EV P-HEV 2% AFTER ULTRA BATTERY Li-ion Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells 31
MWh TAKEAWAYS 21-225 CAGR = +1% Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices (smartphones, tablets) For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMH In 212, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 6 B$ market in 215-11 B$ in 22 & 15 B$ in 225 EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 22 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 22 Micro-hybrid will achieve >5% Lead acid battery will be the first market in 225 in volume & value A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 15% in the next 15 years In 22, Energy storage will represent less than 5% of the total battery market RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET WORLDWIDE 2-225 38 GWh 28 GWh 2 21 22 225 25 B$ 575 GWh 54B$ 775 GWh 64 B$ 83 B$ Others Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, 32 LIB NiMH NiCd Lead Acid > 1 B$ (Pack level) 4,3 2 25 21 213 215 22 225 Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-5%) NiMH (-4%) LIB for 3C (+3%) LIB for xev (+16%) LIB for Others* (+16%) Others (CAGR 212-225) 1 32 2 15 13 52
> US$ 1 B > US$ 7 B OTHER APPLICATIONS 1 B$ POTENTIAL MARKET 1 Battery market in 212 (M$) 18 Other Applications Battery market in 22 (M$) 18 Marine Medical devices 16 16 Wheelchair Medical Cart Other Stationary Seismic 14 12 1 14 12 1 ESS Other Stand-by 8 8 UPS Telecom 6 6 Other Motive 4 4 Forklift Power Tools 2 2 E-Bikes Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 213 Lead Acid LIB Lead Acid LIB For Power tools, NiCd batteries are used rather than lead acid batteries 33 1- Pack level
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