General Assembly ETP SmartGrids Panel Session Horizon 2020: Future of Utilities Thierry Pollet
Uncertainties Policy-Regulation Social-Economic Technology Sustainability E. Efficiency Urbanization Generation Storage ICT Battery Big Data/ Analytics Electrification Customer Smart Cities fusion Customer Network Quality Service Market Model Community Behavior Grid Micro grid Chemical Energy Storage H 2 Hydrogen Synthetic Natural Gas IoT
ETP Survey RESULTS Key Uncertainties for the Utility of the Future (2035) Safe Nuclear Grid-divorce Cloud Technology Uncertainty Demand Response Hydrogen & P2G Micro-grid Urbanization Survey: 184 Qualitative Responses Smart Cities Electrification Battery Technology Energy Efficiency Wind technology Policy Customer Service Market Model Design Self-generation Securing Supply IoT Big Data/Analytics Solar technology Policy on Renewables Impact
ETP Survey RESULTS Key Uncertainties for the Utility of the Future (2035) Safe Nuclear Grid-divorce Cloud Technology Policy, Regulation, Politics Uncertainty Demand Response Hydrogen & P2G Micro-grid Urbanization Survey: 184 Qualitative Responses Smart Cities Electrification Battery Technology Energy Efficiency Wind technology Policy Customer Service Market Model Design Self-generation Securing Supply IoT Big Data/Analytics Solar technology Policy on Renewables 4 pillars of EU policy Impact
ETP Survey RESULTS Uncertainty Safe Nuclear Grid-divorce Cloud Technology Demand Response Hydrogen & P2G Micro-grid Urbanization Survey: 184 Qualitative Responses Key Uncertainties for the Utility of the Future (2035) Smart Cities Electrification Battery Technology Energy Efficiency Wind technology Policy Customer Service Market Model Design Self-generation Securing Supply IoT Consensus on solar the top renewable Generation Technology & ICT Big Data/Analytics Has innovation potential Solar technology Policy on Renewables Impact
ETP Survey RESULTS Key Uncertainties for the Utility of the Future (2035) Safe Nuclear Grid-divorce Cloud Technology User Behavior Uncertainty Demand Response Hydrogen & P2G Micro-grid Urbanization Survey: 184 Qualitative Responses Smart Cities Electrification Battery Technology Energy Efficiency Wind technology Policy Customer Service Market Model Design Self-generation Securing Supply IoT Big Data/Analytics Solar technology Policy on Renewables Impact
ETP Survey RESULTS Self-generation Grid-divorce Demand Response Direct Marketing 4 of 10: 10-25% 4 of 10: 1-5% 3 of 10: 25-50% 3 of 10: 5-10% 5 of 10: 5-25% 3 of 10: 25-50% 3 of 10: <5% 5 of 10: 5-25% What do users want? (2035)
sources of uncertainty: solar technology $/W (DC) 10.0 PUBLIC BENCHMARKS OF RESIDENTIAL PV SYSTEM CAPEX 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 Vivint SolarCity 0.0 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Germany California Japan Chinese multi module Australia (3kW) Vivint SolarCity Source: Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Solarchoice, METI, BSW-Solar, California Solar Initiative, Vivint and SolarCity filings
sources of uncertainty: stationary storage EV LITHIUM-ION BATTERY COST OUTLOOK, 2011-2030 EV battery pack costs ($/kwh) 1,200 Global volumes (GWh) 400 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 BNEF observed values: annual lithium-ion battery price index 2010-15 300 Global EV li-ion battery production BNEF observed values 600 200 500 400 300 Long-term cost range 100 Moderate scenario: 15% learning rate 200 100 Aggressive scenario: 22% learning rate 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 0 Note: Values from 2010-2014 are based on BNEF s annual battery price index. Cumulative production is based on total EVs sold and their respective battery pack size. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
sources of uncertainty: electric vehicles EV sales ( 000 units) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 19.9 Q1 2014 23.6 23.4 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 EUROPEAN BEV AND PHEV SALES BY COUNTRY, Q1 2014 Q4 2015 29.2 Q4 2014 36.9 Q1 2015 39.8 Q2 2015 36.9 Q3 2015 % of new vehicle sales 68.3 Q4 2015 2.7% 2.3% 1.9% 1.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% Only passenger EV models available for sale to the general public are included. Renault Twizy and Smart Fortwo ED sales are not included Source:Bloomberg New Energy Finance, carmakers, vehicle registration agencies Other Sweden France Germany UK Netherlands Norway EV share of total car sales (%)
sources of uncertainty: electricity demand 1990-2015 2015-2040 Average annual demand growth -2% Min 0% Mid +2% Max No data Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance New Energy Outlook, 2015
sources of uncertainty: European energy policy SUPPORT SCHEMES FOR LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS PAYMENT MECHANISM Feed-in tariff (FiT) Premium Green certificates ALLOCATION Competitive auctions WIDER ELECTRICITY MARKET REFORM Centralised comprehensive capacity market Decentralised comprehensive capacity market Capacity payments Capacity reserve Considering a capacity mechanism Part of European Commission inquiry
Thank you Thierry Pollet Thierry.Pollet@landisgyr.com