Chapter 2 Financial markets



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Transcription:

Chapter Financial markets Hovedstyret desember,,,,,.a Exchange rates against USD Daily figures,,,,, JPY per USD (left-hand scale),, USD per euro (right-hand scale), jan jul jan jul jan jul, Source: EcoWin Hovedstyret desember

.b Nominal effective exchange rates A rising value denotes an appreciating exchange rate. January = Daily figures USD EUR jan jul jan jul jan jul Sources: EcoWin, ECB and Norges Bank Hovedstyret desember Hovedstyret desember.a Three-month money market rates Nominal interest rates. Daily figures - - NOK GBP EUR USD JPY - jan jul jan jul jan jul /Troll -

.b Yields on -year government bonds Effective rates. Daily figures US Germany Japan October-December jan jul jan jul jan jul Sources: Norges Bank and EcoWin Hovedstyret desember. Norges Bank's interest rates and short money market rates Nominal market rates. Daily figures Overnight rate -week rate Deposit rate -month rate jan jul jan jul jan jul Hovedstyret desember

- -. Interest rate differentials against NOK: NOK/EUR and NOK/ Main trading partners -month nominal rates. Daily figures NOK/main trading partners NOK/EUR jan mai sep jan mai sep Hovedstyret desember. Three-month forward rates Forward rate agreements (FRA rates)... September. October December.. Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Hovedstyret desember

. Three-month FRA rates January - December. Daily figures... December March June. September. Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov. Hovedstyret desember. Norges Bank's sight deposit rate, actual -month rates and FRA rates. -month rate.. Deposit rate.. FRA rates December. Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Hovedstyret desember

.a Forward rates in Norway Implied forward Norwegian short-term interest rates... October December September... Hovedstyret desember.b Forward rates in Norway, the US and Germany December Norway Germany US Hovedstyret desember

.c Differential between Norwegian and German forward rates... September..... October December.. Hovedstyret desember.d Differential between Norwegian and German -year forward rates...... Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Hovedstyret desember

,. Yields on Norwegian government bonds Effective yields. Daily figures,, -year rate,,,,,, -year rate,, jan jul jan jul jan jul Hovedstyret desember,. Yield spreads on government bonds -year maturity. Daily figures. NOK/DEM.. NOK/GBP.. NOK/USD NOK/SEK. -. Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul -. Source: EcoWin Hovedstyret desember

Monthly figures. Exchange rates Index. Daily figures. January - December Import-weighted exchange rate, countries (=) Trade-weighted exchange rate (=) Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Hovedstyret desember. Nominal effective exchange rates A rising value denotes an appreciating currency January =. Monthly figures Norway * Australia New Zealand Canada * * The figure for December is the average so far in December Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Sources: Norges Bank and EcoWin Hovedstyret desember

. The oil price and the trade-weighted exchange rate index (TWI) Oil price (left-hand scale) TWI (right-hand scale) Hovedstyret desember. Krone exchange rate (TWI) and -month interest rate differential,,,, -month interest rate differential (left-hand scale),, TWI (right-hand scale), jan jul jan jul jan jul jan jul Hovedstyret desember

. Krone exchange rate (TWI) and global risk indicator (GRI) TWI (right-hand scale) GRI (left-hand scale) Hovedstyret desember. Implied volatility for NOK/EUR Annualised expected standard deviation. Per cent mth mth mth Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: EcoWin Hovedstyret desember

. Probability for the effective krone exchange rate Probability per. point.. Implied probability in one month.. NOK/EUR=% NOK/USD=% NOK/SEK=% NOK/GBP=%.. Hovedstyret desember. Credit indicator C (domestic sources) -month growth. Per cent - - C, adjusted - - C sep nov jan mar mai jul sep Hovedstyret desember

. C by borrower sector -month growth. Per cent Share of loan debt in October Households Non-fin. corp. Local governments Non-financial corporations Households Local governments - Sources: Norges Bank Hovedstyret desember -. Total credit C (Domestic and foreign sources) -month growth. Per cent C C mainland Norway Adjusted growth rates sep des mar jun sep Hovedstyret desember

. Money supply (M) -month growth. Per cent - - Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Hovedstyret desember. Movements of sub-indices on the Oslo Stock Exchange. Daily figures,..... Indexed,.. = Norway OSEBX Energy Financials Manufac. ICT Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Source: EcoWin * The ICT index is calculated as the average of the IT and telecom indices Hovedstyret desember

. Movements on international stock indices Daily figures,..... Indexed,.. = Wilshire,US FTSE,UK DAX,Germany Topix,Japan Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Source: EcoWin Hovedstyret desember. Yield spreads between government bonds and corporate bonds. Percentage points UK US Euro area Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Source: Datastream Hovedstyret desember

. Yield differentials against US government bonds Percentage points USD-denominated government bonds in emerging economies High-risk US corporate bonds Sources: Datastream and EcoWin Hovedstyret desember. Implied volatility of options on the S&P index Per cent Sources: EcoWin / CBOE Hovedstyret desember