The Source for Maritime Information and Insight Christopher Pålsson, Director Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1
The set scene Global Redesign - a rapidly changing world Size matters - a matter of size Go Europe! - Europe in the backwater Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2
Global Redesign: The Old World GDP Growth Slows Down 15.0 12.5 Copyright IHS, 2011 All Rights reserved 10.0 Annual GDP Growth, % 7.5 5.0 2.5 0.0 Avg 1990-2008: 2.3% Avg 2010-2030: 2.1% -2.5-5.0 Updated: 2011-05-15 USA W. Europe Japan 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 3
Global Redesign: The New World GDP Growth Slows Down 15.0 12.5 Avg 1990-2008: 7.3% Avg 2010-2030: 6.8% Annual GDP Growth, % 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 0.0-2.5-5.0 Copyright IHS, 2011 All Rights reserved Updated: 2011-05-15 China India Brazil 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 4
Global Redesign: The Total World GDP Growth Increases 15.0 12.5 10.0 Copyright IHS, 2011 All Rights reserved Annual GDP Growth, % 7.5 5.0 2.5 0.0 Avg 1990-2008: 2.9% Avg 2010-2030: 3.3% -2.5-5.0 Updated: 2011-05-15 World Total 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 5
Global Redesign: Rebalance of GDP China the Winner 100 90 Copyright IHS, 2011 All Rights reserved 80 Trillion 2005 US Dollars 70 60 50 40 30 12% 24% 20 10 63% 50% 0 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 Updated: 2011-04-15 USA European Union Japan China (excl. H-K) India Brazil Rest of World Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 6
Setting Global Redesign: Rebalance of World Imports World Imports by region, billion tonnes 25 20 15 10 5 0 39% 16% 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 USA European Union Japan China (excl. H-K) India Brazil Rest of World 38% 26% Copyright IHS, 2011 All Rights reserved Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 7
Global Redesign: World Energy Consumption, Main Shipping Demand driver Total energy consumption, Mtoe 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Copyright IHS, 2011 All rights reserved Forecast Total CAGR 11-30 = 1.7% AP 2.7% Asia Pacific RoW Middle East Europe 2,000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 North America Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8
Global Redesign: World Energy Consumption, Source Oil is Outpaced by Coal Energy consumption by fuel type, Mtoe 5,000 20,000 4,000 16,000 3,000 12,000 2,000 8,000 1,000 4,000 0 0 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 Total energy consumption, Mtoe 11-30 1.7% 2.0% 1.0% 1.6% 2.5% 3.2% Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Renewable/hydro Total (right scale) Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 9
Global Redesign Energy Prices Energy prices, $/bbl oil equivalent 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Oil, Brent ($/bbl) Oil, WTI ($/bbl) GAS, Henry Hub ($/bbl oil eq) LNG, Japan, ($/bbl oil eq) Coal, Newcastle ($/bbl oil eq) 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 10
Global Redesign: Seaborne Trade. China Wins Again 20,000 18,000 Seaborne import, M tonnes 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 4.0% p.a. forecast 2011-2030 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 USA EU Japan China India Brazil ROW Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 11
China s share of world commodity consumption Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 12
Gross government debt, % of GDP Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 13
Size matters Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 14
Total world fleet, dwt 2,500 Forecast Total World fleet, M dwt 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 May-11 Tanker Bulker & GC Container & Ro-ro Passenger Misc. 2015 2020 2025 2030 Copyright IHS, 2011 All rights reserved Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 15
Crude oil tanker fleet, dwt 500 450 Forecast Crude oil tanker fleet, M dwt 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 May-11 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 200,000+ dwt 120-199,999 dwt 60-119,999 dwt 10-59,999 dwt -9,999 dwt 2024 2029 Copyright IHS, 2011 All Rights reserved Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 16
Product & prod/chem tanker fleet, dwt Product & chem/prod tanker fleet, M dwt 300 Forecast 250 200 150 100 50 0 May-11 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 60,000+ dwt 20-59,999 dwt 10-19,999 dwt 5-9,999 dwt -4,999 dwt 2024 2029 Copyright IHS, 2011 All Rights reserved Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 17
Dry bulk carrier fleet, dwt 1,400 1,200 Copyright IHS, 2011 All rights reserved Forecast Bulker fleet, M dwt 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 May-11 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 200,000+ dwt 100-199,999 dwt 60-99,999 dwt 35-59,999 dwt 10-34,999 dwt -9,999 dwt Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 18
Container fleet, teu Container carrier fleet, M teu May-11 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 8,000+ teu 5-7,999 teu 3-4,999 teu 2-2,999 teu 1-1,999 teu -999 teu 2010 Forecast 2015 Copyright IHS, 2011 All rights reserved Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 19
Vehicle ro-ro, ceu 4.5 4.0 Forecast Vehicle carrier fleet, Mceu 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 May-11 1980 1985 1990 1995 4,000+ ceu -3,999 ceu 2000 2005 2010 2015 Copyright IHS, 2011 All rights reserved Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 20
Cargo ro-ro, lane metres 1,200 Forecast Cargo ro-ro fleet, 1000 lm 1,000 800 600 400 200 May-11 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2,000+ lm -1,999 lm 2005 2010 2015 Copyright IHS, 2011 All rights reserved Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 21
China takes over shipbuilding as well Forecast 100% 90% Total Contracting, share of dwt 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Apr-11 Rest of World Americas Europe Other Asia China Japan South Korea Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 22
New ships still built in Europe Contracting, Europe, Number of Ships 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Forecast 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Jun-11 Misc. Passenger Container & ro-ro Bulker & GC Tanker Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 23
Go Europe! Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 24
Ships visiting European ports Previous port EEA: 90% Outside: 10% >880,000 port calls per year EEA Port 6.7M dwt Next port EEA: 89% Outside: 11% Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 25
Ships visiting European ports Average duration in port (hours) 35 Min country: Norway 18 Max country: Bulgaria 114 Min vessel type: Ferries 10 Max vessel type (excl yacht, offshore & service): Bulk carriers 80 Average age of ships calling ports 15.3 Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 26
World fleet control by dwt Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 27
SCA Transforest Östrand Obbola Ortviken 2/v Umeå Husum Sundsvall Iggesund Container Express 1/v Stockholm Helsingborg Tilbury Rotterdam 2011 Google-Imagery 2011 Terrametrics Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 28
Transpaper Transtimber 2/v Kemi Oulo Stora Enso Kotka Stena Forteller 1,5/v Göteborg Immingham DFDS Torline 6/v Lübeck Tilbury DFDS Torline 3/v Zeebrugge Schlingeborg Schieborg Spaarneborg 6/v 2011 Google-Imagery 2011 Terrametrics Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 29
Holmen Paper Hallstavik Bråviken Baltic Excellence 1/v Birka Transporter Baltic News Birka Shipper 3/14 d Chatham Amsterdam Birka Exporter 1/v Lübeck Gdynia 2011 Google-Imagery 2011 Terrametrics Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 30
SSAB Oxelösund TransAgila TransFrej TransOdin 2/v Goole Vejle 2/v Åhus Askö Värmdö Vindö 2/m Pasajes 2011 Google-Imagery 2011 Terrametrics Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 31
Smurfit Kappa Piteå/Haraholmen Balticborg Bothniaborg 1/v Paldiski Terneuzen/Vlissingen 2011 Google-Imagery 2011 Terrametrics Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 32
Husum Umeå Sundsvall Iggesund M-Real och SCA Helena Viola Gorthon 2/v Lübeck Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 33
Bålsta Södra Varberg Karlshamn Mönsterås Brake Terneuzen 1/v 2/m Genoa 1/m Swinoujsci e 1/m Fartyg: Forester Cellus Timbus + spotcharter vid behov 2011 Google-Imagery 2011 Terrametrics Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 34
So.. Global Redesign - a rapidly changing world Size matters - a matter of size Go Europe! - Europe in the backwater Christopher Pålsson Director Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 35