Jet Fuel Prices ($/mt) Diesel (ULSD) Prices ($/mt) Gasoil Prices ($/mt) No News From OPEC Sends Oil Into Tailspin

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1 Friday, 4 December, 2015 Jet Fuel Prices ($/mt) Spot Diff (LS Gasoil) Change Outright Change Low High Current Cal Prior Cal Barge Fob NWE Fob NWE Cif Med Fob Diesel (ULSD) Prices ($/mt) Spot Diff (LS Gasoil) Change Outright Change Low High Current Cal Prior Cal Barge Fob NWE Fob NWE Cif Baltic Fob Med Fob Med Cif Gasoil Prices ($/mt) Spot Diff (LS Gasoil) Change Outright Change Low High Current Cal Prior Cal Barge Fob 0.1% NWE Fob NWE Cif Med Fob Med Cif ppm Barge Fob ICE Brent and LS Gasoil Futures at 16:30 London No News From OPEC Sends Oil Into Tailspin Brent ($/bbl) LS Gasoil ($/mt) Reports that an unnamed OPEC delegate said the new production ceiling would be 31.5 million b/d, and did not include Indonesia, sent oil futures into a nosedive early afternoon. January Brent was edging up to a high of $44.82/bbl just before the news broke but then collapsed to a low of $42.67/bbl within minutes. The crude future then recovered some ground to trade at $43.08/bbl by the afternoon marker at 4.30pm U.K. time. The official line from OPEC was that global stocks are high, the world economy is improving, and global oil demand will rise 1.3 million b/d next year. In view of this, the Conference agreed that member countries should continue to closely monitor events in the coming months. There is room for interpretation, according to analysts at DNB Markets. ( Continued on Page 2 ) Oil Price Information Service, Publishers of the Stalsby Petroleum Supply Europe Directory

2 ULSD Cif es Northwest Europe and the Med Jet Cif es Northwest Europe and Fob FARAG Barges ( Continued from Page 1 ) If we were to believe that OPEC would really keep production at the current level (31.5 million b/d) going forward, it would be bullish because it would mean that someone in OPEC would cut to make room for Iran, they wrote shortly afterwards. But we do not factor in that OPEC will continue at 31.5 million b/d, instead the production will increase to an average of 32.2 million b/d (Iran and Libya increasing) and hence our global supply-demand balance stays unchanged from before the meeting. Brent has been trending lower since mid-october, partly on weak fundamentals amid the overhang of crude and distillates in the Atlantic basin, and partly on dollar strength. However, any correlation between crude and the greenback seems to have broken in the last few days after the dollar index tumbled from around 100 points to just over 98 points at the same time as Brent tumbled. Diesel barge differentials firmed again Friday to cap a remarkable week for the road fuel. After hitting lows of minus $14/ton on Wednesday, the ARA market traded three lots today, one at minus $5.50 below December LS gasoil, and the other two at minus $3. But the diesel market remains oversupplied, and the differentials are now reflecting a more normal contango spread versus the futures curve. December LS Gasoil expires next week, and there is a $6.75/ton spread today between the front and second month distillate future. OPIS Freight Assessment $/mt Augusta Rotterdam (30kt) Jet premiums continues to rally. In the barges, BP bid for Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Ghent loading lots at December plus $23, and the market was assessed 50 cents higher. ( Continued on Page 3 ) Middle Distillate Barges Fob Rotterdam ($/mt) Last 8 months outright price and linear trend ($/mt) Page 2 Copyright Oil Price Information Service (OPIS)

3 500ppm Gasoil vs ICE LS Gasoil Futures (EFS) FOB Sing Gasoil LS Gasoil M+1 Difference Change 30-day average Dec Jan Jet and Diesel Indicative Arbitrage to NWE ( Continued from Page 2 ) In the cargoes, BP bid December plus $28 for 30,000 tons into Rotterdam, and the market was assessed a dollar higher. Although a higher differential, the assessment still widened the contango to the balance month swap. The only cargo offer seen was from Trafigura at January plus $25, or the equivalent of December plus $ The market needs to trade to establish value again. Jet imports still look light for this month, with around 1.1 to 1.2 million metric tons spotted to date in the OPIS Tanker Tracker, including 90,000 tons from South Korea. The arbitrage is closed, sources said, but this reflects the overhang of product in Europe and the lack of demand. A long range one vessel would probably trade around $3 under the Cif cargo mean into Italy currently, while ARA stocks in the north are exceptionally high. Noble Selling Jet Inventory At Milford Haven From Fob value Freight (last done) Value NWE Spread Time Stamp Jet Fob AG (LR2) :30 Jet Korea (LR2) :30 ULSD US Gulf (MR) :30 Noble seems to be selling its jet inventory in Milford haven in the U.K. amid talk the trading company has switched its focus to gasoline. In the last ten days, Noble loaded 65,000 tons of jet from Milford Haven onto the Energy Centurion, which discharged into the port of Royal Portbury yesterday for Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, according to market sources and satellite tracking. Today, the trading company was spotted loading 35,000 tons of jet fuel from Milford Haven, which is scheduled to discharge at Shell Haven in a couple of days, sources said. Meanwhile, a cargo of gasoline components, loaded on the Doric Breeze from the Turkish port of Aliaga, is expected to ( Continued on Page 4 ) Historical and Projected Jet and ULSD Imports into EU (million tonnes) Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug* Sep* Oct* Nov* ULSD Jet Page 3 Copyright Oil Price Information Service (OPIS)

4 OPIS Worldwide Outright Jet and ULSD Prices ($/mt) Outright Change Date and London Time 3-day avg Jet Cif NWE Dec 16: Jet Fob Med Dec 16: Jet Fob AG (LR1) Dec 09: Jet Fob Singapore Dec 09: Jet Fob Korea Dec 09: Jet GC Close Dec 22: ULSD Cif NWE Dec 16: ULSD Cif Med Dec 16: ULSD GC Close Dec 22: Gasoil 500ppm Sing Dec 09: OPIS Ticking Price Derived Outright Change Net CIF NWE Date and London Time 3-day avg Jet NYH Ticker Dec 16: Jet GC Ticker Dec 16: ULSD GC Ticker Dec 16: International Jet Fuel Prices (trailing 3-day avg) arrive in Milford Haven on Dec. 12. Stocks Continuing To Build In ARA ( Continued from Page 3 ) Oil product inventories in the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Antwerp trading hub rose to near record highs in the week to Dec. 3, according to data provided to BNP Paribas by PJK International. Total ARA product stocks rose over the week to million barrels. Jet and kerosene stocks rose by 670,000 barrels, or 11.2%, to 6.67 million barrels, as vessels chartered from South Korea offloaded jet cargoes. Stocks of the product are 77.7% higher than a year ago the highest percentage rise over the year for any of the products stored in the ARA area. Distillate stocks rose by 2.5% over the week, with inventories rising by 660,000 barrels to million barrels, leaving them 42.4% higher than a year ago. Gasoline stocks rose by 1.15 million barrels, representing a 21.3% gain over the week to 6.55 million barrels. The build was the result of a drop-off in exports to the US, West Africa and Latin America and a rise in imports from the UK and Russia. Gasoline stocks are 30.9% higher than in the same week of Only fuel oil stocks registered an 8.5% fall in the week to Dec. 3. Stocks fell by 660,000 million barrels to 7.06 million barrels due to the loading in Rotterdam of two Singaporebound VLCCs. ARA fuel oil inventories are up 49.6% on the year. Ryanair Passenger Growth Soars Above IAG and Budget Rival EasyJet International ULSD Prices (trailing 3-day avg) Ryanair carried more new passengers last month than both the International Airlines Group (IAG) and its budget rival carrier easyjet, according to figures released by the companies. Ryanair carried 1.36 million more passengers last month than a year earlier, reaching million. This is a rise of almost 18% from November 2014 levels. IAG -- which owns British Airways, Iberia, Vueling and Aer Lingus -- carried million more passengers last month, than a year earlier, reaching million. This is an almost 17% rise from November 2014 levels. Ryanair carried more than triple the number of new passengers last month that its rival budget carrier easyjet did. EasyJet data released today show the no frills airline carried almost 422,000 more passengers last month, than a year earlier, reaching million. This is a rise of almost 9% from November 2014 levels. EasyJet said today in its annual report that lower fuel prices this year had boosted passenger traffic on the total European short haul market 5% higher year on year in the 12 months to Sept. 30. The budget carrier said this was sustained in part by a continued low fuel price. Delivered cargo prices for jet fuel in northwest Europe -- the assessed premium above ICE LS gasoil futures -- averaged ( Continued on Page 5 ) Page 4 Copyright Oil Price Information Service (OPIS)

5 Distillate differential and outright swaps at 16:30 Jet NWE Jet NWE Jet Barge Swap Jet Barge ULSD NWE ULSD NWE ULSD Barge Swap ULSD Barge December January Quarter Quarter Gasoil NWE Gasoil NWE Gasoil Barge Swap Gasoil Barge Gasoil Med Gasoil Med ULSD Med ULSD Med December January Quarter Quarter ICE Brent and LS Gasoil (ULSD) Futures at 16:30 Product Dec Jan Feb Mar Brent ($/bbl) Spread Change LS Gasoil ($/mt) Spread Change Analyst Forecasts for Future Brent Crude Prices Analyst Brent /bbl Period Stamp* BNP Paribas Q4 Sept Barclays Q4 Sept JBC Energy Q4 Sept DnB NOR Q4 Aug Energy Aspects Q4 Aug Societe General Q4 Sept ( Continued from Page 4 ) $555.62/ton in the January September period this year. This is down from an average of $960.50/ton in the first nine months of last year, OPIS data shows. EasyJet said last month that lower fuel bills have boosted its annual profits in the financial year to Sept.30 although hedging stopped it taking full advantage of the drop in oil prices. EasyJet s pre-tax profits of 686 million pounds ($1.043 billion) for the financial year ending Sept. 30, up 105 million pounds from a year earlier. Passenger numbers jumped 6% year on year to 68.6 million. The airline's jet fuel bill this year dropped 52 million pounds from a year earlier to billion pounds. EasyJet said that it expects its fuel bill for the full financial year to Sept to fall by between 140 million pounds and 160 million pounds, from this year s level. This assumes average northwest European jet fuel prices will remain in a $ /ton range. EasyJet said it has hedged between 65% and 85% of its fuel bill and currency needs for the next 12 months and between 45% and 65% for the year after that. For the six months to March 31, the airline is 85% hedged at a jet fuel cost of $852/ton and 89% hedged at a U.K. ( Continued on Page 7 ) Page 5 Copyright Oil Price Information Service (OPIS)

6 Clean jet prices and carbon futures $/mt Clean spread Outright Clean Jet Change Stamp Cif NWE Dec Fob Med Dec ICE Carbon Futures (/mt) Price Change Price $ Clean Spread CER Dec EUA Dec Ratio of Barge Price to Rolling Brent Crude at 16:30 London OPIS Europe Jet, Diesel and Gasoil Report Methodology: OPIS assesses trades and market deals over a full trading day from 9.30am to 4.30pm. Based on this data, OPIS calculates a simple average of differentials which are added to the official settlement of the ICE gasoil contract at 4.30pm London time. A more complete summary of OPIS full-day price methodology is found at Editorial staff: Michelle Wiese Bockmann (UK) mbockmann@opisnet.com, , yahoo michelle_bockmann. Paddy Gourlay (UK) pgourlay@opisnet.com, , yahoo paddygourlay. Helen Robertson (UK) hrobertson@opisnet.com, +44 (0) , yahoo helenrobertson800. Business Development: Tim Wright (Sweden) twright@opisnet.com, +46 (0) , yahoo timlloydwright. Exchange Rate and prices in Euros Change Dollars per Euro Jet Barge Fob NWE Jet Cif Med Jet Fob ULSD Barge Fob NWE ULSD Cif Med ULSD Cif ppm Barge Fob Product $/bbl Price Change Gasoil barge ppm barge ppm barge Jet barge Rolling Brent * The Rolling Brent assessment smooths out the curve between front and second month ICE Brent contracts on expiry. Each new trading day, Rolling Brent takes proportionally less account of the front month and more of the second month. Page 6 Copyright Oil Price Information Service (OPIS)

7 pound to U.S. dollar exchange rate of $1.62. ( Continued from Page 5 ) Page 7 Copyright Oil Price Information Service (OPIS)