GERMANY AS A SOLAR ROLE MODEL FOR THE WORLD?

GERMANY AS A SOLAR ROLE MODEL FOR THE WORLD? Eicke R. Weber, Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE and Albert-Ludwigs University, Freiburg, Germany Paths towards a New Energy Market Design EnBW/MIT/TUB, Berlin, September 6, 2013

Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Largest European Solar Energy Research Institute About 1300 members of staff (incl. students) Areas of business: Photovoltaics (Si, CPV, OPV) Solar Thermal (ST, CST) Renewable Power Generation Energy-Efficient Buildings & ISE Freiburg Technical Building Components CSP Halle (with IWM) Applied Optics and Functional THM Freiberg (with IISB) Surfaces LSC Gelsenkirchen Hydrogen Technology CSE Boston (Fh-USA) 10% basic financing 90% contract research 40% industry, 50% public 77 M budget ( 12) > 10% p.a. growth rate 2

A radical transformation of our energy system is needed The danger of catastrophic climate change The world is getting warmer Limited availability of fossil fuels Risk of nuclear disasters Growing dependency on imports from politically unstable regions Increasing financial advantages Important aspects to take into account: The transformation needs time Technological development Capacity building Investments in infrastructure Industrialized countries and countries with high consumption per capita must lead 3

Transformation into a Sustainable Energy Future Requires: Increased energy efficiency in buildings, transport (e-mobility) and production Rapid development of all renewable energies, especially wind, PV, ST, hydro, geothermal and biomass towards a 100% renewable energy future Development of energy storage technologies 4 Expansion of the electricity grid for longdistance transport and smart consumers

Renewable energy shares of total final energy consumption in Germany 2012 5

Electricity generation from renewable energy sources Development in Germany 1990 2012 Year 2012 Total* 22.9% 136.1 TWh PV 4.7% 28.0 TWh 32.6 GW Bio 6.9% 40.9 TWh Wind 7.7% 46.0 TWh 31.3 GW Hydro 3.6% 21.2 TWh 6 * Brutto electricity demand

Electricity generation from PV and Wind in Germany Monthly generation Wind + Photovoltaic: Min.: 4.7 TWh Max.: 7.6 TWh Annual generation: PV: 27.9 TWh Wind: 45.9 TWh Monthly electricity generation from Wind and PV in 2012 PV Wind 2012 Electricity generation May 2012: Wind, PV and fossil/nuclear power stations > 100 MW 7 Fossil/Nuclear > 100 MW Wind Photovoltaic Graph: Willeke 22.4 GW PV Produktion (ca 30%) 25 May, 12:45 h

Example: Scenario for 100% Renewable Energy Supply till 2050 in Germany Key Features: Strong decrease of heat demand from buildings (energy renovations, zero-energy houses Increase of combined-cycle heat/power plants Thermal storage for heating and cooling Coupling of electricity grid and gas pipelines through production of regenerative hydrogen and methan Introduction of e-mobility with batteryand fuel cell powered cars Use of liquid biofuels predominantly for heavy trucks and air traffic 8

World Energy Resources (1Twy = 8760 TWhr) 9 Quelle: M. Plass, CFV

Price Learning Curve (all c-si PV Technologies) Module Price [inflation adjusted 2011 / Wp] 10 1980 1990 2000 Learning Rate: With each doubling of cumulative production, price went down by 20%! 2010 Cost of PV electricity 2013: ca. 13 ct/kwh in Germany < 6-8 $ct/kwh in sun-rich countrie 10 1 0,01 0,1 1 10 100 Cumulated Production [GWp] 2013: Ready-installed rooftop system in Germany: down to 1 /Watt! Source: Navigant Consulting; EuPD Module price (since 2006) Design: PSE AG 2012

IEA outlook on PV installations world-wide Rapidly declining cost of PV generated electricity open up new market opportunities Current 30GW/a market will increase to a 100+ GW/a market in 2020; For 2050, even IEA predicts more than 3.000 GW of globally installed PV capacity! 11

Technologies for a 100% Renewable Energy Scenario 3 components needed at about 1:1:1 Grid Storage Hydro, Geothermal, Biomass... 12

Important elements of the future energy system Central Decentral/Smart Grid Smart Grid Grid expansion national and international Advantage Electric Mobility 13 Source: Fraunhofer ISE (all graphs) Slide courtesy Gerhard Stry-Hipp

The biggest challenge of the sustainable electricity system: Fluctuations of electricity production by solar and wind Measures to secure electricity supply: Mix of renewable energies Expansion of the distribution grid to capture solar electricity and balance differing regional solar electricity generation Expansion of high-voltage grid to bring wind electricity to consumers and balance differing regional generation Smart Grids Demand-side management (consumption follows generation) Building up short time storage capacities (peak shaping) Building up seasonal storages 14 Following a typical load curve with RES (one week example) wind Pumped-storage plant We Th Fr Sa Su Mo Tu solar bio gas storage export import Source: Fraunhofer IWES

ISE model of an integrated energy system for Germany: Electricity-gas-heat- with storage (without transportation, industry) 15

ISE model of an integrated energy system: Electricity-gas-heat - minimal cost scenario:118 bn /a Same as 2012! 16

Example Germany: The Cost of the Energy Transition Slide courtesy F. Staiss 2013, based on data from BMU 17

Example Germany: The Cost of the Energy Transition Slide courtesy F. Staiss 2013, based on data from BMU 18

Example Germany: The Cost of the Energy Transition Slide courtesy F. Staiss 2013, based on data from BMU 19

Example Germany: The Cost of the Energy Transition Slide courtesy F. Staiss 2013, based on data from BMU 20

Example Germany: The Cost of the Energy Transition Slide courtesy F. Staiss 2013, based on data from BMU 21

The Road Towards the Energiewende: Development of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energies 22 Graph: K. Kübler, BMBF, FVEE 2011

Conclusion: Germany as a Solar Role Model for the World? Germany has taken up a leading position among highly industrialized countries towards a goal of 80-100% renewable energy generation at greatly increased efficiency in energy consumption. The two main pillars of a 100% RE system will be wind and solar, augmented by hydro, biomass, geothermal energy. Rapid introduction of storage and smart grid technologies are needed; decentralized power generation minimizes the need for large-scale longdistance grid investments. Fast de-carbonization requires a carbon tax or a floor on CO 2 certificate prices this we can learn from other countries like Sweden and California! The fastest possible energy transition decreases the need for importing fossil and nuclear fuels at ever increasing prices and therefore will bring about great economic advantages. With unwavering execution the German Energiewende may indeed serve as a role model and open doors globally for the technologies developed 23 here!

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