Photovoltaic and Solar Thermal in Germany Status quo and Outlook

Transcription

1 Photovoltaic and Solar Thermal in Germany Status quo and Outlook Bangalore, 14 November 2011 Dr. Matthias Eichelbrönner This presentation was supported by Mr. Chrometzka, German Solar Industry Association BSW 1

2 German Solar Industry Association BSW TASK To represent the German solar industry in the solar thermal and photovoltaic sector VISION A global sustainable energy supply provided by solar (renewable) energy ACTIVITIES Lobbying, political advice, public relations, market observation, standardization EXPERIENCE Active in the solar energy sector for over 30 years MEMBERS More than 850 solar producers, suppliers, wholesalers, installers and other companies active in the solar business HEADQUARTERS Berlin, Germany WEBSITE 2

3 Content 1. Photovoltaics in Germany 2. Solar Thermal in Germany 3

4 Market Data Photovoltaics in Germany Installed power (end 2010) 17,200 MWp Newly installed power as of Sept ,353 MWp Total Sept ,563 MWp Solar electricity produced (2010) 12,000 GWh No. of all systems installed ~990,000 Employees 130,000 Source: BSW-Solar, Bundesnetzagentur, 10/2011 4

5 Development of the German PV market Milestones 1991: First Feed-in Law (FIT with low tariffs) : 1,000 roofs program (grants) : 100,000 roofs program (loans) 2000: Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) (FIT) 2004, 2009, 2010: Amendment (revision) of EEG (FIT) in MWp 5

6 PV-Market Segments in Germany Ground-mounted Roof-topp Building integrated Image : Schüco Private buildings: 1-10 kwp Image : Solarwatt Market share in % of MW installed in 2009 Social, commercial, agricultural buidlings: kwp Image : Solarwatt Image : Geosol <1% Image : Grammer 18% 59% 19% Image: Sharp Large commercial buildings: > 100 kwp Image : BP Image: Geosol 6% Source: Bundesnetzagentur, BSW-Solar 6

7 Monthly installations Source: Bundesnetzagentur, BSW 7

8 Share of PV Power Supply Grows PV electricity becomes a pillar of German energy supply: in GWh Jan Feb Mrz Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez PV power production doubled in first five months of 2011 compared to same period in 2010 In 2011, approximately three percent of German power supply to be covered by solar power Source: UNB, EEX, own calculations BSW-Solar 2011, preliminary 8

9 PV System Prices Decrease Source: BSW-Solar Price Index [150 INR/Wp] Overall price reduction by almost 56% since Q2/2006 Average annual reduction of ca. 13% p.a. Q3/11: Average PV system price for systems < 100 kwp: 2,199 /kwp 9

10 Spot market PV module prices* fell below the 1 EUR/Wp mark for the first time in September 2011 [~70 INR/Wp] Source: eclareon/pvxchange spot market price data; (04/11/2011) Note: *Location Europe: Downstream margin, commission, logistics and packaging included (15 20 EUR ct/wp) 10

11 Changes to the German FIT (2012) The FIT law for 2012 continues in the spirit of the changes that were implemented in 2011 There continues to be an market based degression of the FITs The target corridor of 2,5 GWp to 3,5 GWp of new installations per year The base degression (9 %) will be applied in January be in-/decreased according to marktet growth A variable part of the tariff reduction will take effect in July, if there is strong market in the months before and vary between 0-15% Market observation: 5,3 GWp of new sytems installed throughout October 2010 to October 2011 Consequence: tariff reduction for 2012 to be: -15% 11

12 Current Feed-in Tariffs Germany For systems at or on buildings (or integrated) feeding to the grid: Year of commissioning < 30 kwp > 30 kwp > 100 kwp > kwp Jan 1, Tariff degression 2011/ % -15 % -15 % -15 % Tariffs as of Jan 1, [16,6] [15,8] [14,9] [12,5] For ground-mounted PV systems feeding to the grid: Year of commissioning Commercial zones, on construction systems, along motor- & railways Conversion and sealed areas Jan 1, Tariff degression 2011/ % -15 % Tariffs as of Jan 1, [12,2] [12,8] [INR], exchange rate 1 = 68INR; Source: Bundesnetzagentur, BSW 12

13 Current Feed-in Tariffs Germany For systems at or on buildings (or integrated) feeding to the grid: Year of commissioning < 30 kwp > 30 kwp > 100 kwp > kwp Jan 1, !!!Germany!!! Interest on capital for project finance range ~4 to ~5%p.a. Tariff degression 2011/ % -15 % -15 % -15 % Tariffs as of Jan 1, [16,6] [15,8] [14,9] [12,5] For ground-mounted PV systems feeding to the grid: Year of commissioning Commercial zones, on construction systems, along motor- & railways Conversion and sealed areas Jan 1, Tariff degression 2011/ % -15 % Tariffs as of Jan 1, [12,2] [12,8] [INR], exchange rate 1 = 68INR; Source: Bundesnetzagentur, BSW 13

14 Current Feed-in Tariffs Germany For systems at or on buildings (or integrated) feeding to the grid: Year of commissioning < 30 kwp For ground-mounted PV systems feeding to the grid: > 30 kwp > 100 kwp > kwp Solar irradiation Jan 1, !!!Germany!!! Interest on capital for project finance range ~4 to ~5%p.a. Tariff degression 2011/ % -15 % -15 % -15 % Tariffs as of Jan 1, [16,6] [15,8] [14,9] [12,5] Year of commissioning Germany ~ 1,000 kwh/m 2 India ~ 2,000 kwh/m 2 Commercial zones, on construction systems, along motor- & railways Conversion and sealed areas Jan 1, Tariff degression 2011/ % -15 % Tariffs as of Jan 1, [12,2] [12,8] [INR], exchange rate 1 = 68INR; Source: Bundesnetzagentur, BSW 14

15 Future role of PV in our energy mix socialized costs 05/09/2011 BSW-Solar 15 15

16 PV pays off for Germany 05/09/2011 BSW-Solar 16

17 Survey by TNS Emnid (October 2010) High acceptance: 75 % out of a representative sample are willing to pay up to 2 Ct/kWh for PV 17

18 Content 1. Photovoltaics in Germany 2. Solar Thermal in Germany 18

19 Structure of renewables-based heat supply (BMU) 19

20 Market Data Solar Thermal in Germany Installed aperture area (end 2010) ~ 14.0 Mill.m 2 Newly installed aperture area (in 2010) 1.15 Mill. m 2 Solar heat supplied (2010) ~ 4.9 GWh/a No. of all systems installed 1.5 Mill. Turn over of branch ~ 1 bn Euro Employees ~ 20,000 Source: BSW-Solar, own calculations 20

21 Solar collector capacity in Germany since 1990 (BMU) 21

22 Act on the Promotion of Renewable Energies in the Heat Sector (Heat Act, EEWärmeG) Entered into force: May 2011 The obligation to use a share of renewable heat or cold is mandatory to new and existing private and public buildings undergoing major renovations. The public sector has to fulfil an exemplary role in using renewable energy sources for heat and cold. The exemplary role has to be ensured as well where buildings are rented or leased. Solar radiation shall meet the obligation, if at least 15% of the heat and cold demand is covered by this source. Example for minimum requirement for residential buildings: minimum aperture area of 0.03 m 2 per m 2 of effective area. Biomass shall meet the obligation, if at least 30% (gaseous biomass) or 50% (solid or liquid biomass) of the heat and cold demand is covered by this source. Regulatory offence can be punished with a fine of up to 50,000 Euro Evaluation in progress 22

23 Examples Source: BSW 23

24 Application for process heat 24

25 Process heat by temperature and sector 25

26 Solar thermal for industrial processes Source: BSW/Paradigma 26

27 Process Heat: Advanced flat plat collectors 27

28 Process heat: Concentrating collectors 28

29 Bavarian brewery 29

30 Huge Potential: Solar Cooling 30

31 Thank you for your attention. Dr. Matthias Eichelbrönner Managing Director & Co. Projekt- und Beratungs- KG Kolpingstraße 39 D Waghäusel Germany Amtsgericht Mannheim HRB Tel +49/(0)6201/ Fax: +49/(0)6201/